Now Democrats, Go Get The Senate!

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Now Democrats, Go Get The Senate!

Let's make this a complete victory.

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Any possibility of Collins or Romney or any other GOP Senator supporting Biden's Cabinet Appointments

https://vancouversun.com/news/politics/bc-election/final-count-underway-...

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My hunch is that both Georgia's Senate seats are doable for the Democrats

https://www.salon.com/2020/11/06/georgia-david-perdue-jon-ossof-senate-r...

Pondering

If the Dems want them badly enough they should pass legislation that the people will love and dare the Senate to vote against it. Put lots of poison pills in. 

Then say this is the type of legislation that will pass if we win the senate seats. 

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A pox on the GOP for allowing the Trump mentality to take them over

https://www.ajc.com/news/divided-georgians-resort-to-tiptoeing-avoidance...

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Biden and Kamala need to hang out in Georgia for the next 2 months

https://www.ajc.com/politics/battle-for-senate-majority-keeps-georgia-in...

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I'm having second thoughts about Trump conceding the race. The longer Trump holds off congratulating Biden, the more damage he will do to the GOP's Senate Election chances in January

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/trump-...

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Democrats Must Go Down to Georgia to Save Disappearing Hopes of a Senate Majority

Jessica Taylor

Jessica Taylor

November 6, 2020

 @JessicaTaylor

We’ve been writing for months that Democrats were the favorites to flip the Senate and, given the lopsided nature of the races with Republicans almost entirely on defense, virtually everything would have to go right for the GOP to retain their majority. 

On Tuesday night, it did. 

“I think that there is a surge that happened. When Trump goes out on the stump, he energizes people,” said one Republican involved in several Senate races who was not expecting such an outcome. 

Thus, every single Toss Up race broke for Republicans, save for the two Georgia contests that are now headed to a January 5, 2021 runoff. Those twin races are now must-wins for Democrats if they want to get to a 50-50 tie. And that assumes a Biden/Harris victory — which returns currently point to.

Ultimately, the blue tsunami, a blue wave or even a blue tide didn’t materialize. Not even a green tsunami of cash could push Democrats across the finish line in the races they needed. Public and many Republican polls were off, but Democratic private polling was even more wrong. Some GOP polls showed several close races, but given the climate few strategists expected those races would ultimately break their way. Our final projection was a Democratic gain of between two and seven seats, but we expected it to be on the higher than the lower end. Instead, Democrats have only currently netted one seat, after flipping Colorado and Arizona — consistent with our Lean Democrat ratings —but also lost, as expected, Alabama. 

Like 2016, surveys failed again to capture the Trump base that did show up on Election Day, while Democrats got their voters to cast ballots early or by mail. And with most polling stopping a week or so before Tuesday, that late surge may not have been captured fully, though some Republicans say there were some signs. Additionally, the millions of dollars the Senate Leadership Fund raised and spent in the final weeks of the race surely made a perhaps determinative difference. 

So now, all eyes turn to Georgia. During counts on Thursday, Republican Sen. David Perdue fell below the 50 percent threshold as more absentee ballots were tallied, and he’ll again face off against Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff. As of midnight Thursday, Perdue led Ossoff by about 2 points. And in the special election, Democrat Raphael Warnock finished first in the 20 candidate field while appointed GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler bested Rep. Doug Collins to claim the second spot. Last month, we explored what those two runoffs could look like as strategists increasingly believed that’s where we were headed. Of course, Democrats thought — and most Republicans did too — that these races would determine the size of the Democratic majority, not simply whether or not they get one. 

We’ll dig deeper into the new dynamics of those runoffs in the coming weeks, but it’s Republicans here who likely have the upper hand. If nothing else, they are now able to very explicitly make a check-and-balance argument and frame the vote as one of not giving Democrats unified control. That’s a message they could only largely subtly make in the race’s final weeks. However, Democrats are sure to be encouraged if Georgia, as expected, does go for Biden. And this would prove a test of whether or not Senate votes line up with the presidential results, though those are different markers in a runoff versus a race occurring on Election Day. 

But we’ve seen that the Trump coalition isn’t necessarily fully transferable when he’s not on the ballot, à la the 2018 midterm elections, but he is able to deliver the massive turnout when he is, in 2016 and now in 2020. It was a similar phenomenon with President Obama, who won easy victories in 2008 and 2012 but saw his party lose the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014 midterms. So it’s hard to tell which side may be more energized or depressed in a winter runoff just days after the holiday season. But these races will be nationalized to an extreme extent, and that could spell trouble for Democrats. The progressive pull of the party is something House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn bemoaned on a contentious party call Thursday. If “we are going to run on Medicare for All, defund the police, socialized medicine, we're not going to win” the Georgia runoffs, the South Carolina Democrat said, according to Politico

In the regular races, we saw decided this week, it wasn’t just longer-shot races like Kansas and Texas in our Lean Republican column that ended up being easy GOP victories. (Alaska still has just over half of its votes tallied, but Sen. Dan Sullivan has a substantial lead. Neither party expects an upset). But even the races Democrats believed and Republicans feared would flip also went to the GOP — Maine, North Carolina and Iowa. (North Carolina also still has outstanding ballots to count, but both sides also expect Sen. Thom Tillis’s lead to hold).

Republicans and Democrats agree that the biggest surprise of the night was in Maine. While Republicans thought that longtime Sen. Susan Collins might be up in the count on Election Night, they worried that if no candidate got 50 percent and the state’s ranked-choice voting kicked in, that’s where Democrat Sara Gideon would overtake her. That didn’t have to happen, with Collins crushing Gideon in the state’s more rural areas. The Republican ran ahead of President Trump by about 7 points, and so far, hers is the only race where voters picked a different presidential and Senate result. 

Republicans credit Collins’s independent record, bolstered in the final week as she was the only Republican to break ranks and oppose Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the Supreme Court, along with her focus on local issues and a strong ground game. Even though Gideon outspent her by $12.4 million on TV — and outside groups came in to give Democrats a $22 million advantage on air, spending — Republicans believe that may have had diminishing returns and think ads like this one from the NRSC asking what out-of-state donors want in return for their donations hammered that home. Ultimately, even the furor that Collins appeared to have provoked when she voted two years ago to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh couldn’t trump her longtime ties to the state and the finger she has on the pulse of it. This is the state where Republicans and Democrats did see differently through most of the race, but even in the final days, RCV gave them worry. 

In North Carolina, too, while polls last month showed that Democrat Cal Cunningham’s favorability numbers had taken a hit after he admitted to an extramarital affair, Tillis’s own numbers still remained dour. But it’s clear now that he had to take a hit, not least because of the evasive posture he took in answering questions from and avoiding local press. While there are still outstanding absentee ballots — and the state will accept ballots through next Thursday as long as they were postmarked by Election Day — Democrats don’t expect the Tar Heel State will break for them. 

The other tipping point state we believed was Iowa. But veteran Hawkeye State pollster Ann Selzer’s final Des Moines Register survey that showed significant movement toward GOP Sen. Joni Ernst was on point, and she ended up besting Democrat Theresa Greenfield by about 6.6 points. Greenfield alone outspent Ernst on TV by $24.7 million, but again it wasn’t enough. 

Finally, Republicans do believe that while at the beginning of October, there was a five-alarm fire on the heels of Trump’s poor debate performance and his COVID diagnosis that resulted in a precipitous drop in polls, they were seeing signs of a rebound in the final weeks. But it was hard to measure how much because it was hard to field a poll given how many people had already voted early. But they were beginning to see better trends in red states like Montana, Kansas, Alaska and South Carolina, and do believe that soft Republican voters did come home at the end, perhaps pushed by the Supreme Court confirmation or simply being scared enough about an impending Democratic Senate along with a likely Democratic president. 

In the Palmetto State especially, we wrote before that Sen. Lindsey Graham needed a Hail Mary from chairing the Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing from Barrett, and he ended up very clearly getting that and easily bested his Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison by double digits — despite the former state party chairman’s record-breaking fundraising haul. However, SLF and others made up the difference and even outspent Democrats on the air in the final weeks, and this was a place where the race couldn’t afford to be nationalized, and it was. Still, while Republicans were feeling more confident about their chances in South Carolina, neither Republicans or Democrats anticipated such a large margin. 

The same was true in Montana, our other final Toss Up race in the battle royale between term-limited Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock and Republican Sen. Steve Daines. While Republicans maintained consistent optimism that Daines would prevail, private polls showed it as a margin of error race for months. Instead, it was Daines who won by about 9 points as predictions that Trump’s margin would tighten there too were also wrong — his 20 point 2016 win only dropped to 15 points. Bullock still outperformed Biden, but that was far too much to overcome, and Daines easily won a second term. 

In fact, Republicans saw tighter-than-expected races in other surprising places — especially in Michigan, which in the final week many GOP strategists argued should have been a Toss Up, and the final result did show it was razor-thin. Democratic Sen. Gary Peters beat Republican John James by about a point and a half, and James did about a point better than Trump did in the state. The polls showing a far larger polling lead for Biden gave us pause, but the race in the Wolverine State was much closer across the board. Still, Democrats in both races narrowly hang on. 

But there were also other strong, surprising Republican candidate showings. In the open seat in New Mexico, Democratic Rep. Ben Ray Lujan only beat TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti by about 6 points. And in Minnesota, Democratic Sen. Tina Smith beat former Rep. Jason Smith by almost 8 points. Even in Virginia, Democratic Sen. Mark Warner beat Republican Daniel Gade by 11 points. All of those were closer margins than the two races we had in Likely Republican — in Kentucky, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell obliterated his cash-flush challenger Amy McGrath by 20 points. Even Mississippi was closer than Kentucky, but Democrat Mike Espy still lost his rematch by 13 points to Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith despite his massive spending advantage. 

 

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/democrats-must...

NorthReport

Trump Supporters, Like Their Leader, Refuse to Face Reality

“To think that this election has any sort of credibility is just ridiculous,” one Trump demonstrator said

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-supporters-ref...

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Georgia Democrat previews Senate runoff message: 'We are living at a moment of crisis'

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/09/politics/jon-ossoff-georgia-senate-runoff...

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Poll: 70 percent of Republicans don’t think the election was free and fair

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/09/republicans-free-fair-elections...

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Brilliant, keep it up morons!

Loeffler, Perdue call on Georgia's Republican secretary of state to resign

The Georgia Republicans will both face runoff elections on Jan. 5.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/09/loeffler-perdue-georgia-secreta...

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Well said and I hope Jeralyn does indeed run some day!

Talk Left: The Politics of Crime

Trump is Gone: The Time Has Come Today

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2020 
Posted on Sun Nov 08, 2020 at 10:29:09 PM EST  
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The time has come to leave Donald Trump behind. He's toast. The fat lady sang. The Supreme Court is not coming to his rescue. He's lived high on our dime (and the dime of the Secret Service covering his and his kids' international and domestic travel) long enough.) 

As soon as the media stops covering Donald Trump, which it will shortly, he'll be on his way to somewhere like Abu Dhabi faster than the speeding bullet trains in Asia can get him there. (He can't possibly be dumb enough to think he's safe from arrest at Mar-a-Lago and he would never be able to adapt to a non-opulent lifestyle or a place where English isn't widely spoken). So why is he hanging on to his desk in the oval office so tightly? What is he afraid of? My theory is five-fold: [More....]

 

  • (1) He's afraid Deutsche Bank will call or sell his loans on the Trump hotels in Florida, Wasington, DC and Chicago and thinks he can ward them off while still in the White House 

    Deutsche Bank has about $340 million in loans outstanding to the Trump Organization, the president’s umbrella group that is currently overseen by his two sons, according to filings made by Trump to the U.S. Office of Government Ethics in July and a senior source within the bank. The three loans, which are against Trump properties and start coming due in two years, are current on payments and personally guaranteed by the president, according to two bank officials.

    In meetings in recent months, a Deutsche Bank management committee that oversees reputational and other risks for the lender in the Americas region has discussed ways in which it could rid the bank of these last vestiges of the relationship, two of the three bank officials said. The bank has over the years lent Trump more than $2 billion, one of the officials said.

    More on Trump and Deutsche Bank at the NY Times here in 2019. Deutsche Bank has not been without its own problems

  • (2) His "immunity" from prosecution (which is only a DOJ policy, not the law) will end on January 21, 2021, and he is facing criminal investigations of his finances in both state and federal court in New York. He has no ability to pardon himself in a state case 
  • (3) he will have to face civil suits such as the defamation case brought by E. Jean Carroll who claims he raped her in a dressing room at Bergforf Goodman's in New York in the 1980's 
  • (4) He thinks if he goes out as a loser, as opposed to a "fighter" and someone who was "robbed", his brand will suffer and his licensing deals (in which he sells his name to be used on hotels and golf courses rather than building anything himself) will tank, and 
  • (5) His only viable path to make money going foward is to create a radical right TV network filled with fake news to compete with Fox, but Jared has been too busy bringing peace to the middle east and handling Trump's COVID response to close the deal.

So with Trump irrelevant, the time has come to hold Joe Biden's feet to the fire and make sure he doesn't bail on the progressives, African Americans, Latinos, seniors and youth who voted for him over Trump.

The Biden-Harris transition team is already making appointments. Progressives need to watch their every move, because Joe Biden is not one of us and never has been. He's certainly preferable to Donald Trump, but we need to watch his back on criminal justice issues, especially the war on drugs; on raising global tensions in the middle east and Africa (i.e., getting us into another war); health care for all Americans and climate change.

Can we all just be honest about one thing? This election was not a referendum supporting Joe Biden. It was a rejection of Donald Trump, his family and everything they stand for. Donald Trump may have disgusted suburban women, and everyone with a brain knows his failure to adopt a national policy on Covid-19 resulted in unnecessary deaths, but it was progressives like AOC 's endorsement, Stacey Abrams' organizing skills, Black Lives Matter protests and Latino voter registration drives (that have been building for the last decade, not just in Florida but in Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada) that brought it home for him and Kamala. 

Today is the time to shift our focus to ensuring Team Biden-Harris appoints fair, unbiased and competent jurists to the bench; expands every Americans' right to universal health care; decriminalizes simple possession and use of all drugs, not just pot; ends the use of the federal death penalty and draconian mandatory minimum sentences which are arbitrarily imposed and disproportionately affect people of color. 

So, I'm sorry Joe and Kamala, but you will get no honeymoon here. We trusted you with our votes, and now you must earn it. The devil with a desk in the oval office will soon be leaving, tail between his legs, but that old adage that the devil you know is better than the one you don't is simply not true. 

We can be happy that now we have principled leaders, two honest hard-working and experienced individuals who profess to care about "the soul of the nation" (an ambiguous phrase if ever there was one) to lead us on the long path to restoring America's standing in the world and eliminate our internal divisiveness, but that is a task I imagine will take at least a generation. 

As for the unity shtick, forget it. I hated when Obama used the phrase ("We are not blue states or red states but the United States") and I hated it more every time Biden used it this week (without attribution of course). The reality is we live in a two party nation and there are principled reasons to judge Republicans harshly. Our disagreements shouldn't lead to physical violence, or police brutality. But it would be foolish to regard Republicans as our friends. They are not. We need be vigilant and ensure that Biden doesn't align with the former Bush neo-cons in the Lincoln Project believing he owes them something. He owes them nothing. We owe them nothing. They didn't win the election for Biden or defeat Trump. We, the people, won it for Biden and Harris, by getting off our as*es and organizing and getting out the vote because another four years of Donald Trump in charge of anything but his cell phone was unacceptable. 

Also unimportant: whether young progressives and Bernie Sanders call themselves "Democratic Socialists" vs. Social Democrats. Some argue they are different in that Democratic Socialists want more, but I think that's hair-splitting and they are birds of the same feather, that exist on the same continuum, with one just wanting more government involvement than the other. (Denmark, Norway and Sweden, are social democracies). 

The current crop of young progressives are not trying to end capitalism. They are not trying to transfer title to your house to the community. They want the government to provide basic human services like quality health care, including mental health services, to all of us; ensure our senior citizens are financially provided and fund home health care, assisted living centers, and nursing homes; ensure all Americans have sufficient nutritious food so no one goes hungry; provide early childhood education so that every child has an equal chance to succeed; provide for clean, safe housing at an affordable price, no one is left to live in a car or tent on the street or shelter for the homeless; ensure the financially less advantaged among us have access to the same universities that the wealthy attend (not just free access to community colleges)and for those who don't want further academics, access to affordable or free technical or vocational training, including the performance arts. And, of course, take on the obligation to address climate change and eliminate student debt. 

Social Democracy is not about who owns the means of production (which is the distinction between capitalism, socialism and communism) -- it's about ensuring the state provides for its citizens' basic needs. The bigger question is who is going to pay for these needs? Increased taxation of the rich? That's is one way that seems to meet with approval, but not the only way. 

If I had the answer to that question, I'd have run for office or become an economist long ago. This is why in a democracy we elect smart people to lead us and figure it out. Biden and Harris are up to the task if they will just take it on. In the meantime, while it would help if Bernie and AOC reverted to calling themselves "Social Democrats" instead of "Democratic Socialists", if only because the word "socialist" seems to scare even smart Democrats who should know better, in current parlance, I think it's a distinction without a difference. For the same reason we don't refer to people as "illegal" but as "undocumented persons" (no human being is illegal), our fellow progressives would do every one a good turn if they would revert to using the term "Social Democrat" instead of "Democratic Socialist". (I get that there is an organized political party named "Democratic Socialists" in the U.S. but not a currently functional and operational party named "Social Democrats" (just a website that says hopefully it will revive itself, but still....the word socialist makes too many people nervous, while the label "social democrat" doesn't conjure up the same fear. 

We, the people, have the ability to make this election a new dawn. The time has come today. Let's push Congress, the Senate and our state houses left on legislation and show the nation and the world what a huge improvement it will be when we stop funding the building of new prisons, border fences and tanks and weaponry that may destroy life on this planet and start funding the most basic needs of every American and the towns and cities they live in.

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2020/11/8/23299/9503/elections2020/Trump-i...

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I guess it's hard for the Trumpsters to convince voters they have to vote Republican in the Georgia run-offs, to offset a Democratic President and House, when you don't admit there is a Democratic President-Elect, eh!

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/11/gops-georgia-boogeyman-chuck-sc...

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Democrats have an ace up their sleeve for the Georgia Run-Offs - the promise of a large stimulus package if Democrats win the Senate. 

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Mind-boggling that the USA doesn't even have a public health care system - what a useless bunch of elected public officials they have had

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/15/georgia-runoffs-senate-health-c...

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Jon Ossoff (@ossoff) Tweeted:
We need a Senate majority that believes in science. https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1327805373382877188?s=20

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Shouldn't refusing to debate automatically disqualify a candidate?

https://www.salon.com/2020/11/16/perdue-backs-out-of-debate-after-being-...

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"How Durable Is Georgia’s Blue Shift? We’ll Find Out In January. | FiveThirtyEight" https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/how-durable-is-georgias-blue-shift-we...

NDPP

Georgia Democrat Drops Palestinian Rights in Bid For US Senate

https://jewishinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/RGW_Israel_Editoria...

"Without reservation, you can count on me to stand with the Jewish community and Israel in the US Senate." - Raphael Warnock

Zionized no matter who you vote for.

NorthReport

"Exclusive: Watchdog files complaint with SEC accusing GOP Sen. David Perdue of insider trading | Salon.com" https://www.salon.com/2020/11/19/exclusive-watchdog-files-complaint-with...

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Kelly Loeffler marketed derivatives during Great Recession at world's most notorious tax haven

Ugland House, five stories tall and home to 19,000 companies, is "the poster child for offshore tax haven abuses"

https://www.salon.com/2020/11/21/kelly-loeffler-marketed-derivatives-dur...