South China Sea

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ilha formosa

kropotkin1951 wrote:
Japan, Taiwan, China, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and the U.S.  What country in this list is not the same as the rest?

Unlike the rest, Taiwan is not a UN member because the PRC threatens other countries with diminished trade ties should they recognize this successfully democratizing society, which, to draw a very rough comparison, is as different from the PRC as Canada is different from the USA.

kropotkin1951 wrote:
There is no good that comes out of Pax Americana only death and destruction. The world would be a far better place if the US did not have bases in all parts of the world.

I wish for multilateralism to strengthen and become the norm, with no hegemons or aspiring hegemons, either global, like the US, or regional, like the PRC. Competing hegemons practically need each other as enemies in order to justify their own pathological reasons for being hegemonic. History provides more than enough evidence, still amassing daily, that large powers playing the game of empire leads only to misery. We especially don’t need ‘Great Games’ being played in the 21st century, when there are other pressing current and looming problems in need of attention, for example adequate fresh water and nutrition for all. 

I don’t call myself Christian but I like the spirit of Isaiah 2:4, the namesake of Project Ploughshares.

Quote:
"God shall judge between the nations, and shall decide for many peoples; and they shall beat their swords into ploughshares, and spears into pruning hooks; nation shall not lift up sword against nation; neither shall they learn war any more.”

kropotkin1951

I agree with most of that post but you know I can't get over the fact that there is only one hegemon on the planet and a small number of countries that are resisting coming under the rule of its oligarchy.

The difference I saw in that list is that only one country is not in Asia. 

I do wonder sometimes why you never use the word China to refer to it and never use ROC to talk about Taiwan or ROP to name the Phillipines. It seems you think that the government of China is not legitimate nor has the backing of least 39% of citizens which in our system makes a government a virtual dictatorship.

Tell me after seeing the destruction of Iraq and Libya what future to you think Chinese citizens would have if the West destabilized its government. That is the US way and leads not to peace and prosperity but to chaos, misery and poverty.

ilha formosa

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I do wonder sometimes why you never use the word China to refer to it and never use ROC to talk about Taiwan or ROP to name the Phillipines. It seems you think that the government of China is not legitimate nor has the backing of least 39% of citizens which in our system makes a government a virtual dictatorship.

Tell me after seeing the destruction of Iraq and Libya what future to you think Chinese citizens would have if the West destabilized its government. That is the US way and leads not to peace and prosperity but to chaos, misery and poverty.

Astute question about my use of PRC/China. The PRC does not equal "China/Chinese". More on this when I have some more time.

The ROC is seen by most people in Taiwan, particularly youth, as an old relic in need of an update. For example, the Republic of China traditionally laid claim to a territory larger than today's PRC, which is not an aim of a growing majority of today's Taiwanese.

I agree Canada's system is flawed. Try living in the PRC though, and tell me if you think its democratic institutions are better than Canada's. I've never called the PRC or CCP illegitimate, though they could make great strides in their legitimacy. Given China's history, I'd say it does need a strong central government to hold things together, which the CCP is doing. China is a massive empire-state, and the transition that started with the end of the old imperial system in 1911 is still in progress. The CCP is the current steward of this ongoing transition, and I don't think it should be replaced as such (at least not for a while yet, and never without the well-informed will of the people), although it can be doing better in several areas.

I certainly don't advocate an equivalent of the "8-nation alliance" to go in and subjugate China. Nor the destabilization of the government by covert means - the mere possibility of that only encourages and gives an excuse for the CCP to regress in the areas that I think it needs to improve in.

Likewise, if it's seen that only the US is challenging the PRC in its SCS activities, it's understandable that the PRC, and China for that matter, would be on the defensive.

What I've been trying to get at in this thread, is that the South China Sea disputes also involve other nations, including ones with the 12th and 14th largest populations (who are not docile US puppets), and that the idea and substance of an international rules-based system must be upheld. Without respect for internationally agreed upon rules (and China is a party to UNCLOS) the world turns the clock back to the 19th century way of conducting international relations - by force of arms.

kropotkin1951

ilha formosa wrote:

I agree Canada's system is flawed. Try living in the PRC though, and tell me if you think its democratic institutions are better than Canada's.

I have never lived there although I know many people who go back and forth regularly for business and pleasure. I would love to spend some time in China but as a Westerner with no Chinese language skills I would not get a complete picture even if I could afford to do that.

As for our system lets us see over the next three years. If we get pipelines and Site C in BC then I will know that the people's views are not relevant and it is only the oligarchs mouthpieces who have Just'isn't Trudeau's ear and they are really in charge and we are in fact an oligarchy much the same as China. In most countries in the world including Canada and China if you don't actively oppose the government and its agenda then you are very unlikely to be bothered by their security agencies. In Canada you have the right to protest until told to stop. If you don't stop you go to jail like Harriet Nahanee. 

http://www.zoeblunt.ca/2009/11/20/first-nations-activist-dies-after-rele...

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..this video report provides insight on the current situation.

The Empire Files: Untold History of Imperial Japan & the Bomb

Abby Martin interviews renowned historian Peter Kuznick about ongoing protests in Okinwana over US military presence there and the real story behind the use of the atomic bombs in light of President Obama's recent visit to Japan

 

ilha formosa

[edited to add: Note that this thread has "expanded" to also cover issues of the East China Sea, to avoid thread proliferation, and also because it's closely related to the South China Sea issues, having to do with the PLA Navy's access to open sea, UNCLOS & other maritime issues.

The PRC's "9-dash line" in any case could be expanded to a 10- or 11-dash line that is deliberately ambiguous about whether it would encompass Japanese islands at the end of the Ryukyu island chain, like Yonaguni not far east of Taiwan.]

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This flashpoint area is worthy of its own thread. It's about more countries than just China. There are many posts about the SCS disputes elsewhere, for example the China#2 thread and the China foreign minister thread. What prompts me to start this new thread is news of the US moving ground attack planes closer to features in the ocean claimed by the Philippines and occupied exclusively by China since 2012, and where reportedly China is ready to start reclaiming land to make another artificial island large enough for military use.

The Scarborough Shoal is 150 miles from the Philippines, 500 miles from China. Under an enhanced defense agreement, the US now has A-10 ground-attack planes based on Luzon. If the PRC starts reclamation, things could heat up - a lot. A ruling from the Permanent Court of Arbitration based in the Hague is expected soon. New Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte takes office July 1.

Will China Begin Scarborough Shoal Reclamation After Hague Verdict on South China Sea?

Quote:
Scarborough Shoal was seized by China in 2012. Reclamation there would be unusually provocative...unprecedented in an important way. Each of the other features in the South China Sea where China has constructed artificial islands (Gaven Reef, Hughes Reef, Subi Reef, Mischief Reef, Cuarteron Reef, Fiery Cross Reef, and Johnson Reef) were previously occupied by Beijing for decades. Scarborough Shoal, unlike the other features, was seized from another claimant recently.
[...]
If, however, Beijing wants to send a message that it is actively interested in defying international law, there’s no better way to send that signal than begin reclamation activities at Scarborough Shoal after the PCA verdict this summer. Strategically, an artificial island at Scarborough Shoal could have immense value for the PLAN (People's Liberation Army Navy). For instance, an over-the-horizon radar installation there could give the PLAN unprecedented maritime domain awareness of U.S. and Philippines Navy activities off the western coast of Luzon, where important military facilities, including Subic Bay and Basa Air Base. (The latter is one of five locations that the two allies have operationalized under their recently activated Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.)

 

ilha formosa

I don't want to expand this thread's topic even more, but it should be noted that events in the South China Sea and East China Sea are not unrelated to Russian moves in the Black Sea and Baltics.

June 6- Encounter between Chinese and Japanese jets near disputed islands in East China Sea.

Quote:
...during fiscal year 2015 [Japan] had to dispatch its fighter jets 571 times to intercept Chinese military aircraft approaching or intruding Japanese airspace — an all-time high since Japan’s Ministry of Defense’s Joint Staff Office began to keep records...

Chinese and Japanese Fighter Jets Come Close to Dogfight in East China Sea (2016)

A ruling on territorial disputes between China and the Philippines will come from the Permanent Court of Arbitration on July 12.

The PRC offers bilateral talks on condition the Philippines ignores the court decision, expected to be favorable for the archipelagic state.

As noted upthread, China has already reneged once on a promise to withdraw from Philippine held territory, the Scarborough Shoal, after bilateral negotiations.

Another problem with strictly bilateral talks, Mr. Escobar, is that many parts of the South China Sea are claimed by 3 or more countries. 

Quote:
Last month China even hinted at launching an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the South China Sea.

With its de facto ADIZ over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, the two ADIZs could be considered part of the preliminary-stage formation of a pincer around Taiwan. Taiwan's greatest threat to the CCP of course, is that it is showing a "Chinese" society can be successfully democratic.

ikosmos ikosmos's picture

ilha formosa wrote:

I don't want to expand this thread's topic even more, but it should be noted that events in the South China Sea and East China Sea are not unrelated to Russian moves in the Black Sea and Baltics.

Nice to see you exposing yourself as a megaphone for the views of the US State Department. Maybe you could round out your comments with a denunciation of North Korea, Venezeuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Cuba of course, and any other country that doesn't obey the Masters in Washington.

fyi - Russia is basically neutral on South China Sea issues. The US claims about "Russian aggression" in the Black Sea (or the Baltics) can be summed up: "Why do the Russians keep moving their country closer to our military bases?"

Keep it up. You are doing a find job of discrediting your other views.

ilha formosa

A break out of hostilities in the Pacific would be an opportune time for moves in the Black Sea. Or vice versa. That's why they are not unrelated, and it's not difficult to see. Pointing out the obvious doesn't make someone a Yankee running dog.

Once again, I am not on the side of any hegemon, regional or global. I'd prefer they all disarm and go home.

kropotkin1951

ilha formosa wrote:

Once again, I am not on the side of any hegemon, regional or global. I'd prefer they all disarm and go home.

You do realize that China borders the South China Sea and that Russia borders the Baltic Sea.  So where the fuck to you think they should go? They are at home unlike the damn Yankees. Or are you merely saying that both Russia and China should unilateraly disarm? 

ikosmos ikosmos's picture

ilha formosa wrote:
A break out of hostilities in the Pacific would be an opportune time for moves in the Black Sea. Or vice versa. That's why they are not unrelated, and it's not difficult to see. Pointing out the obvious doesn't make someone a Yankee running dog.

Once again, I am not on the side of any hegemon, regional or global. I'd prefer they all disarm and go home.

The simple truth is that these comments reveal more about YOUR thinking than about Russian (or Chinese) views. Keep diggin that big hole. You're really excelling at this.

ETA: Your last comment, that they should all "go home" is really brilliant. Many bows to your genius.

ilha formosa

kropotkin1951 wrote:

ilha formosa wrote:

Once again, I am not on the side of any hegemon, regional or global. I'd prefer they all disarm and go home.

You do realize that China borders the South China Sea and that Russia borders the Baltic Sea.  So where the fuck to you think they should go? They are at home unlike the damn Yankees. Or are you merely saying that both Russia and China should unilateraly disarm? 

China is not at home on the Scarborough Shoal. Nor was it at home drilling in Vietnamese waters.

In an ideal world, the US would unilaterally disarm too.

kropotkin1951

ilha formosa wrote:

China is not at home on the Scarborough Shoal. Nor was it at home drilling in Vietnamese waters.

In an ideal world, the US would unilaterally disarm too.

So in a dispute over who owns what you have decided oh omnipotent one.

The US unilaterally disarming? Are you on acid?

 

ilha formosa

ikosmos wrote:
The simple truth is that these comments reveal more about YOUR thinking than about Russian (or Chinese) views. Keep diggin that big hole. You're really excelling at this.

You seem to have run out of flimsy, flatulent personal attacks. Here is another chance for you. Keep diggin.

Quote:
For First Time Since 2004, Chinese Warship Enters Japanese Territorial Sea in East China Sea

...the entry of PLAN vessels into the contiguous zone around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands (accompanied by three Russian vessels) marked an unusual first in the East China Sea, particularly when China, along with several regional states, anticipates the verdict of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in Philippines v. China. (The case will rule on the status of several features in the South China Sea; not on sovereignty.)

China and Russia to Increase Number of Military Exercises in 2016

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Are China and Russia Holding Joint Military Drills in the South China Sea?

China and Russia are purportedly considering holding their joint annual naval exercise, Joint-Sea 2016, in the South China Sea this September, China Military Online reports.

By virtue of being a party to the Hague Convention of 1899, China is a member of the Permanent Court of Arbitration. However, its government has stated in advance it will ignore the ruling coming down from the PCA on July 12.

ilha formosa

Here's a thorough discussion on the upcoming PCA verdict and the factors affecting how things may play out afterwards.

Quote:
A Complete Guide to the Upcoming South China Sea International Law Verdict

The Diplomat‘s Ankit Panda and Prashanth Parameswaran discuss the upcoming verdict in Philippines v. China.

I do fear that what I've been arguing for, ie multilateralism and building up of international law, will lose out to 'might makes right' and the games of hegemon vs. hegemon, in which the small players are mere fodder.

ilha formosa

The international community has been failing miserably in the South China Sea disputes by riding on the coat tails of the US - a country that is itself a global rule-ignorer. Meanwhile, other countries undermine the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea by turning a blind eye to PRC violations of international rules.
  
USian motivations in the region are driven by preventing a hegemon rising to rival the US. Jingoistic propaganda showing 2 aircraft carriers side by side (certainly not a real military formation as it would only serve as a huge invitation to use a tactical nuke) east of the Philippines only serve to provide fuel for the hawks on the other side.

There were indications at this year’s Shangri-la Dialogue (posted upthread) that India and France also thought the PRC needed to be confronted on its SCS activities. There seems to have been no material follow up on this.

I’m no expert on this issue, I just follow news on it and express my views here, which is what a board like this is for. So,

to underline that this issue is about international law, not simply a contest between a declining hegemon trying to contain a rising hegemon, freedom of navigation operations should be conducted by civilian ships and have representatives of several nations on board. They could be followed by a US Navy vessel (unless other countries are ready to send naval vessels) but also with representatives from other nations on board. The PRC would of course be notified of the multi-national presence.

China though, has many economic disincentives to offer. With Brexit, European countries can be played off against each other even more, as has been done to ASEAN countries on this issue.

ilha formosa

I'm taking the sides of the Philippines and Vietnam, with UNCLOS, which China has ratified, as a backdrop.

eta: If you think Vietnam and the Philippines are "home" to China, and the Baltics "home" to Russia, then Canada and the Caribbean are "home" to the US.

eta: Which is not to say the Baltics are home to the US/NATO.

 

 

NorthReport

Is this the USA answer to China bullying Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea?

US military researchers call for use of privateers against China

  • Magazine published by US Naval Institute features articles titled ‘Unleash the Privateers!’ and ‘US Privateering Is Legal’
  • But any such move would provoke a retaliation from China, military watchers say

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3079303/us-military-researchers-call-use-privateers-against-china

kropotkin1951

NorthReport wrote:

Is this the USA answer to China bullying Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea?

US military researchers call for use of privateers against China

  • Magazine published by US Naval Institute features articles titled ‘Unleash the Privateers!’ and ‘US Privateering Is Legal’
  • But any such move would provoke a retaliation from China, military watchers say

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3079303/us-military-researchers-call-use-privateers-against-china

I suspect it will lead to a bitter end for the pirates.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIwzRkjn86w

NorthReport

What is it about big countries that makes them bully smaller ones?

China and Vietnam ‘likely to clash again’ as they build maritime militias

  • Vietnamese fishing boat sank last week after colliding with Chinese coastguard ship, as neighbours report seeing more Chinese vessels
  • Use of state-supported fishing militias in the disputed South China Sea can facilitate force without necessarily sparking a military response, experts say

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3079436/china-and-vietnam-likely-clash-again-they-build-maritime

NorthReport

This is not the time to add to tensions in South China Sea

  • Beijing is working on a code of conduct with fellow sovereignty claimants in the disputed waters. Such cooperation, not stirring trouble and increasing firepower, should also be the aim of the United States in this time of crisis

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3079674/not-time-add-tensions-south-china-sea

NorthReport

Looks like China is continuing to aggravate its neighbours 

China continues South China Sea military action despite COVID-19

The Philippines attempts to remind Beijing that tackling the pandemic is the first priority amid military activities in disputed areas.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/china-continues-south-china-sea-military-action-covid-19-200415125529388.html

NorthReport

Looking beyond the coronavirus, military powers jostle for dominance in Indo-Pacific region

  • Taiwan Strait and South China Sea are settings for China and the US to assert influence and defiance
  • Analysts warn costly missteps and miscalculations are possible amid rift

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3081932/looking-beyond-pandemic-military-powers-jostle-dominance-indo

NDPP

The South China Sea: Beyond the Smoke 'n Mirrors

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/05/04/the-south-china-sea-beyond-the-s...

"As the American Empire continues to intensify its many-fronted aggression against China, the South China Sea has become a powerful flashpoint. The latest 'freedom-of-navigation' (translation: freedom-of-provocation) sail-past by a US Navy destroyer was 'expelled' by PLA forces, Chinese media reported. More confrontations are expected in that strategic maritime stretch.

Despite the importance of the South China Sea (SCS), many onlookers remain unclear about what's been going on there. The story is basically very simple. It is also something the Western mainstream media (MSM) have done their best to hide for decades. It goes as follows..."

NorthReport

Right, and tell that one-sided version to Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam, eh!

But no mention of China's intrusions and building military fortifications, in some of these above countries' waters, which have been acknowledged in an International Court, yet ignored by China. Strange dat!

kropotkin1951

NorthReport wrote:

Right, and tell that one-sided version to Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam, eh!

But no mention of China's intrusions and building military fortifications, in some of these above countries' waters, which have been acknowledged in an International Court, yet ignored by China. Strange dat!

You are an imperial propaganda amplifier because you can't tell the difference between US media and real news outlets.

"The US Empire and its MSM marketing arm rushed to portray Beijing’s defensive moves as aggression – against China’s smaller neighbors as well as Washington’s presumedly divine right to call the shots in Asia."

NorthReport

.

NorthReport

Seems like a repeat of what occured previously between China and the Philippines

Vietnam may soon sue China on South China Sea

Hanoi is weighing an international arbitration case against Beijing to settle their hotly contested sea claims

https://asiatimes.com/2020/05/vietnam-may-soon-sue-china-on-south-china-sea/

NorthReport
NDPP

China Blasts US Navy Proposal for South China Sea Privateers

https://t.co/K8iBgmXeuq?amp=1

"...In the April edition of its magazine Proceedings, two writers at US Naval Institute, a non-profit group connected to the US Naval Academy, floated the idea of Congress issuing letters of marque to private ships authorising them to prey on Chinese maritime vessels in a bid to turn the tide against Beijing in the South China Sea..."

Seems quite a logical extrapolation and extension of American regional proclivities. US piracy and its encouragement is as American as apple pie. As are the Sinophobes and pro-imperialists that cheer it on.

See also #75

kropotkin1951

NorthReport wrote:

Seems like a repeat of what occured previously between China and the Philippines

Vietnam may soon sue China on South China Sea

Hanoi is weighing an international arbitration case against Beijing to settle their hotly contested sea claims

https://asiatimes.com/2020/05/vietnam-may-soon-sue-china-on-south-china-sea/

The neighbours have no problem using legal processes to settle disputes. Its only the evil empire that causes military trouble when it inserts itself into other countries business.

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