UK Election Thread, The M.P. Who Shagged Me

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Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture
UK Election Thread, The M.P. Who Shagged Me
edmundoconnor

Would it have made a difference if they'd posted a photo of the Guardian editorial board EATING pudding next to the editorial?

It would have had to be fairly-traded, organic and made within 10 miles of the Guardian's offices. If its sale was to benefit starving yaks in Mongolia, so much the better.

edmundoconnor

I've always loved the stories about companies and celebrities threatening to leave if someone (non-Tory) wins an election. I think Lloyd-Webber threatened it prior to the 1997 election, if my increasingly unreliable memory serves. On the day after the election, I've always wanted to turn up outside said celebrity's home/company's office with boxes, packing peanuts and tape. Just to help them on their way, you understand.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Phil Collins threatened to leave the UK if Labour got in, and carried through with the threat.  I've heard that some people voted Labour several times just to make sure he never came BACK.

edmundoconnor

If he could promise to destroy his back catalogue into the bargain, I might be interested.

DaveW

Ken Burch wrote:

Phil Collins threatened to leave the UK if Labour got in, and carried through with the threat. 

he lives in Switzerland

Q. what about all the Hollywood types who said they would "move to Canada"' if GWB was elected/re-elected?

 

DaveW

Clegg sez Liberals the new Labour:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/30/nick-clegg-lib-dem-labour

polls say otherwise:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7665336/General-Election-2010-Poll-blow-for-Nick-Clegg-as-voters-think-twice.html

 

The survey puts the Conservatives up three points from last Tuesday on 36 per cent, with Labour up one point to 29 per cent and reclaiming second place from the Lib Dems.

Mr Clegg's party is down three points to 27 per cent - the same level it was on in an ICM poll at the time of the first televised debate.

Assuming a uniform national swing, analysis by John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, shows that the figures - if repeated on Thursday - would give the Conservatives 279 seats, Labour 261 and the Lib Dems 78.

The Tories would still be 47 seats short of an overall majority and could be defeated in any Commons vote by an alliance of Labour and Lib Dem MPs.

 

 

Krago
edmundoconnor

DaveW wrote:

Assuming a uniform national swing, analysis by John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, shows that the figures - if repeated on Thursday - would give the Conservatives 279 seats, Labour 261 and the Lib Dems 78.

And since uniform national swings never, ever, happen, we can take these numbers as the roughest of rough guesses. And the Torygraph giving a hard time to the Lib Dems? Shock, horror!

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

Tories still short of a majority.

Quote:
The poll puts the Conservatives on 33%, the same as last week's Guardian/ICM poll and down three on a poll published today in the Sunday Telegraph from the same firm.

Labour is on 28%, unchanged from the Guardian poll last week and down one point on today's Telegraph ICM poll. The Liberal Democrats are also on 28%, down two on last week but up one on the Telegraph ICM poll.

bekayne

Ken Burch wrote:

Phil Collins threatened to leave the UK if Labour got in, and carried through with the threat.  I've heard that some people voted Labour several times just to make sure he never came BACK.

 

The Kinks "End Of The Season" (the line was inspired by Ray Davies hearing a member of Billy J. Kramer & the Dakotas threatening to leave the UK if Labour won the 1966 election)

 

Winter is here, end of the season
My reason's gone, close of play
I just can't mix in all the clubs I know
Now Labour's in, I have no place to go

robbie_dee

[url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/may/03/labour-liberal-democrats-... Labour supporters should vote Lib-Dem in key marginals, says senior cabinet minister[/url]

 

A few reactions:

 

1. Ed Balls has the best name ever for a politician.

2. Labour is running scared.

3. If this actually happens, though, it would be a great thing. If the Liberals had been willing to say this about the NDP in '08, we probably wouldn't be stuck with Harper now. At the very least it would have innoculated the Libs and the NDP from Harper's ignorance-based anti-coalition demagoguery.

 

 

Joey Ramone

bekayne wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

Phil Collins threatened to leave the UK if Labour got in, and carried through with the threat.  I've heard that some people voted Labour several times just to make sure he never came BACK.

 The Kinks "End Of The Season" (the line was inspired by Ray Davies hearing a member of Billy J. Kramer & the Dakotas threatening to leave the UK if Labour won the 1966 election)

UB40 threatened to leave if Thatcher was re-elected in "If it Happens Again (I'm Leaving): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiIQdlTv6K4

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

The thing that most interests me about this election, at least from reading the Guardian, which has supported electoral reform for more than a century, is that the paper seems to believe that this will be the last election using FPTP because Clegg has said that is pillar one of any possible support they could offer a hung parliament. Jack didn't demand that in the prorogation fiasco last year as he should have done (and should have done any time there was a confidence vote, but that's another thread). If electoral reform does go ahead as the Guardian seems to think it will, maybe Canada will finally come on board--since apparently we no longer have it in us to be the first ones to do anything good anymore. Or, at least when it comes to PR, not the third-last.

adma

robbie_dee wrote:
1. Ed Balls has the best name ever for a politician.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Butterfill

aka Mycroft

adma wrote:

robbie_dee wrote:
1. Ed Balls has the best name ever for a politician.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Butterfill

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jabez_Bunting_Snowball

Doug

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amor_De_Cosmos

 

Sorry, that beats just about everybody.

aka Mycroft
DaveW

Joey Ramone wrote:

bekayne wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

Phil Collins threatened to leave the UK if Labour got in, and carried through with the threat.  I've heard that some people voted Labour several times just to make sure he never came BACK.

 The Kinks "End Of The Season" (the line was inspired by Ray Davies hearing a member of Billy J. Kramer & the Dakotas threatening to leave the UK if Labour won the 1966 election)

UB40 threatened to leave if Thatcher was re-elected in "If it Happens Again (I'm Leaving): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiIQdlTv6K4

What about the Beatles' The Tax Man, circa 1966 ?

 

 

 

 

 

JKR

Poll of Polls: hung parliament likely

 

Quote:

PFU polling tracker (recent polls, weighted)
Conservative: 34 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 29 per cent
Labour: 28 per cent

Outcome, based on polling tracker, assuming national swing (adjusted) reproduced in every constituency.
Conservatives: 272 seats
Labour: 245 seats
Liberal Democrat: 98 seats
Other: 35 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 54

Where the money is (analysis based on money wagered on the election in political betting markets)
Conservative: 321 seats
Labour: 209 seats
Liberal Democrat: 85 seats
Other: 35 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 5 seats.

Percentage chances of a majority
Chance of Conservative overall majority: 46.5 per cent
Chance of Labour overall majority: 1.7 per cent
Chance of Liberal Democrat overall majority: 0.9 per cent
Chance of No overall majority: 50.9 per cent (Chances based on odds from betting exchanges)

robbie_dee

[url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/04/tories-keys-no-10]To... 'Give us the keys to No 10, Liz'

The Tories are willing to undermine their own principles in their desperation to seize power on Friday

Sunder Katwala, "The Guardian," May 4, 2010[/url]

 

Quote:

Despite accusations of Conservative complacency in this election campaign, the party has put a great deal of effort into planning what happens if parliament is hung and they are some way short of an overall majority.

 

Here is what has emerged as the Tory plan:

 

  • Declare victory anyway.
  • Have the party's media allies strain every sinew to make that a self-fulfilling prophecy.
  • Insist on being given the keys to No 10 without having to talk substantively to any other party first - to avoid a coalition or any substantive policy concessions.
  • Make a partisan challenge to the civil service in seeking to overturn any existing constitutional convention or practice that might conceivably get in the way, or even slow this down a little.
  • Threaten to drag the monarchy into political controversy for partisan advantage by challenging the conventions designed precisely to avoid this.
  • Hold out against electoral reform, whatever the election result.
  • Threaten apocalyptic political and financial meltdown if anybody disagrees.

 

The strategy does not aim simply to speed up the Tory path to power if the party is well ahead - with, say 310 seats - where a Tory minority government is overwhelmingly the most likely outcome, and would probably take office very quickly. Its key objective is to use the vociferous campaigning of the press - no doubt amplifying interventions from friends in the City - to argue that any negotiations between parties would be democratically illegitimate, without first putting the Conservatives into power, even (or especially) if Labour and the Liberal Democrats could between them muster a majority of both votes and Commons seats.

 

"There is convention and there is practice and they are not always quite the same thing," Cameron said in yesterday's Independent. And today's extraordinary Guardian report - based on anonymous briefings from "senior shadow cabinet members" - reveals that the Conservatives intend to mount a partisan attack on existing constitutional conventions, and the cabinet secretary's protocols for handling a hung parliament, even though a primary motivation for these has been to protect the monarchy from being dragged into party political controversy.

 

Looks like Cameron is taking a page from the Harper playbook.

DaveW

re immigration:

will 2nd and 3rd generation British immigrants be tempted to vote Tory? no statistics given:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/05/world/europe/05britain.html?ref=global-home

"I think this country is coming overpopulated, too many people coming in from everywhere, especially Europe," Mr. Qurban said, as fellow worshipers nodded in assent. In particular, he said, thousands of Poles in Luton were taking jobs from the children and grandchildren of a previous generation of immigrants like himself, those who arrived from Pakistan in one of Britain's early waves of migration in the 1960s.

The conversation with Mr. Qurban, and at least a dozen others like it with Muslims in Luton, captured a shift of potentially far-reaching significance. The most strident opponents of large-scale immigration have traditionally been white, native-born Britons, and their favorite target immigrant blacks and Asians, particularly Muslims.

The incongruity was not lost on Mr. Qurban, 56, a rental agent who seemed keen to separate himself from the skinheads and others whose anti-immigrant agitation has sometimes turned violent. "This is my town, this is my bread-and-butter," he said. "I'm a law-abiding citizen, never crossed the line, that is definitely out of order. The Poles have a problem at home as we do in Pakistan, no jobs, no money. I want to go along with them. But definitely, it's up to the government to put a cap on it."

 

JKR

Poll of Polls: 04 May 2010

 

PFU polling tracker (recent polls, weighted)
Conservative: 35 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 28 per cent
Labour: 28 per cent

Outcome, based on polling tracker, assuming national swing (adjusted) reproduced in every constituency.
Conservatives: 286 seats
Labour: 239 seats
Liberal Democrat: 90 seats
Other: 35 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 40

Where the money is (analysis based on money wagered on the election in political betting markets)
Conservative: 320 seats
Labour: 210seats
Liberal Democrat: 85 seats
Other: 35 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 6 seats.

Where the money is: Percentage chances of a majority 
Chance of Conservative overall majority: 46.4 per cent
Chance of Labour overall majority: 1.9 per cent
Chance of Liberal Democrat overall majority: 0.6 per cent
Chance of No overall majority: 51.1 per cent (Chances based on odds from betting exchanges)

edmundoconnor

Labour getting jumpy about Scotland. Apparently it's not the banker they thought it was.

JKR

Channel 4 - Poll of Polls: 05 May 2010

 

Daily poll of polls
Conservative: 36 per cent
Labour: 28 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 26 per cent

PFU polling tracker (recent polls, weighted)
Conservative: 35 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 29 per cent
Labour: 27 per cent

Outcome, based on polling tracker, assuming national swing (adjusted) reproduced in every constituency.
Conservatives: 281 seats
Labour: 250 seats
Liberal Democrat: 84 seats
Other: 35 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 45

Where the money is (analysis based on money wagered on the election in political betting markets)
Conservative: 318 seats
Labour: 213 seats
Liberal Democrat: 84 seats
Other: 35 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 8 seats.

Where the money is (analysis based on money wagered on the election in political betting markets)
Percentage chances of a majority
Chance of Conservative overall majority: 46.4 per cent
Chance of Labour overall majority: 1.9 per cent
Chance of Liberal Democrat overall majority: 0.6 per cent
Chance of No overall majority: 51.1 per cent
(Chances based on odds from betting exchanges)

Stockholm

Gordon Brown had gotten a lot of flak - but at times he does hit the right note. Check out this speech of his

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BA2Jz7xIXw&feature=player_embedded

DaveW

they're gonna party like it's 1974:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/in-britain-it-feels-like-election-day-1974/article1558375/

The British Prime Minister, devastated by an economic meltdown that has left his country swimming in debt, scarred by rising fuel prices and a series of strikes, has found his re-election hopes sideswiped by a young, charismatic Liberal whose third-place party has suddenly risen to big-party popularity levels. The Prime Minister, desperate to hold onto power, prepares to form a coalition government with the Liberals even if his party comes in second.

That was Britain in 1974 - an amazingly familiar scenario that terrifies British voters as they go to the polls Thursday.

With almost 40 per cent of voters undecided on election eve and a resurgent third-place Liberal Democratic Party likely to prevent either the Conservatives or Labour from winning a majority, there is a good chance that Friday morning will be a jarring repeat of 1974.

 

adma

Though the relative scale of the parties is much different now--and communications technology, too, given the reported Thorpe-contact problems in 1974.

But still, I'm not ruling out the wet-blanket of a "shock" Tory majority, or maybe even Cleggmania becoming a scarce-seat-increase paper tiger a la the anticipated Stockwell Day "surge" in 2000...

Krago

For those of you watching the results on the telly tonight, here's an hour-by-hour guide from The Guardian.

 

And here's my prediction, stolen from fivethirtyeight.com:

Conservatives - 312

Labour - 203

Liberal Democrats - 103

Regional/Minor - 32

 

 

bekayne
Catchfire Catchfire's picture

70% turnout! Wow!

bekayne
RosaL

Does anyone know if it's possible to watch the returns somewhere? (I don't mean in a bar in Toronto: I can't afford the plane fare. I'm thinking of a url or something.)

Sean in Ottawa

 

If you know someone with BBC world on cable that would do it...

Otherwise the BBC website is your friend:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/default.stm

robbie_dee

BBC Exit Poll

Conservatives: 307 seats

Labour: 255

Lib Dems: 59

Others: 29

Doug

The important result of which would be a Conservative minority government with the support of the Ulster Unionists. It might not happen that way, though - it's hard to correctly predict where all the seats will fall based on an exit poll.

N.Beltov N.Beltov's picture

Why isn't it illegal to advertise the result of political polls on E-day as in more civilized countries? Barbarians.

Sven Sven's picture

So, what happens when there's a "hung Parliament?

aka Mycroft

So if the seat projections are correct Labour and the Lib Dems would not have enough seats between them for a majority but the Tories and Lib Dems would.

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

Actually, the way things look, the Tories won't have enough for an official majority but I think they will have a de facto majority, because they will be able to rule with the support of the Unionist parties. Isn't that right?

JKR

It's interesting how no one is mentioning the percentage each party has in the exit poll.

Shouldn't that be the most important statistic?

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

Why? It's seats that matter.

Henry MacDonald:

Quote:
If the BBC/ITN/Sky exit poll is correct then the 10 or 11 unionist votes in the House of Commons could be critical over the next few days. While any Ulster Unionists elected to Westminster (not guaranteed tonight by any means!) are wedded to the Tories the Democratic Unionist party will only back David Cameron if they meet their concessions. The DUP's No 1 concession is the protection of the multi-billion pound block grant from London to Northern Ireland. If Cameron needs DUP MPs' support Peter Robinson's party will undoubtedly extract a heavy price.

Doug

It will be an awful shame for the Liberal Democrats if those turn out to be the numbers - to have what seemed to be the best campaign for them in modern history but to end up losing a seat.

ghoris

DUP leader and Northern Ireland First Minister Peter Robinson just suffered a shocking defeat in Belfast East at the hands of the non-sectarian Alliance Party candidate.

takeitslowly

alot of voters are complainning of long line up and being rejected from voting after hours of waiting..alot of problems reported

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/haveyoursay/2010/05/have_the_parties_done_eno...

 

Gordon Brown is "very concerned" about the reports of people being turned away from polling stations and "would support a thorough investigation into them", according to his spokesman.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

It was probably to do with the fallout from his wife's sex-and-finances scandal, and also possibly a "screw you for your hypocrisy" vote to both Robinsons for her adultery combined with their rabid homophobia.

takeitslowly

This group is to inspire all those students who were discriminated against at the polling station in favour of "residents" to complain to the council for the unfair treatment

Anyone who started queuing after 5.30 (correct me if it also affected people who started queuing before this point) who were disciminated against in the speed of which they were able to vote because of the creation of a seperate faster queue for local "residents"

 

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=121206334573223&v=wall&ref=ts

 

bekayne

It's been reported that the Green Party has won their first ever seat:

0057

The BBC's Justin Rowlatt says the word is that Caroline Lucas has won in Brighton Pavilion. If that's true, she'll be the Green Party's first Westminster MP. We'll have to wait until about 2am to find out.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/election2010/liveevent/

Doug

The BBC seem to have bought the iMonolith from Apple. Laughing

aka Mycroft

Interestingly, the non-partisan Alliance Party has won their first ever seat taking Belfast East from the Democratic Unionist Party. Belfast East has always been a Unionist seat until now.

takeitslowly

lib dem kept the seat from the conservative in Torbay , now 2 ! 1.1 swing to Conservative

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