United Kingdom Polling and Seat Projections started May 19 2019

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Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

NorthReport wrote:

If these polls are to believed and Farage does as well as forecast, where does he go next? 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom

To Strausbourg-where the European parliament should respect his convictions and not seat or pay his MEP's.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I find it odd that UK voters would elect MEP's from a Brexit party, for a five year term, when they will have little effect on the outcome any talks. The UK elects only about 10% of the MEP's so even if Brexit swept the table they would still need a lot of allies in other countries to have any effect on the UK's future.

ETA: Does the EU have by-elections if a seat is left vacant?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Then again, no MEP has any actual effect on anything.  Whatever you can say about the EU, the European Parliament is nothing but a pathetic joke-it's a parliament without a government and it votes on nothing of any importance.

NDPP

Just one of the many eminently sensible reasons the majority of Britons voted to leave the supranational monstrosity.

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:
Then again, no MEP has any actual effect on anything.  Whatever you can say about the EU, the European Parliament is nothing but a pathetic joke-it's a parliament without a government and it votes on nothing of any importance.

Ask your average Remainer to explain in detail the relationship between the EU Parliament and the EU Commission. How does that work? Yeah, I'll tell you how that works: badly and undemocratically

NorthReport

 

Brexit Party leads Labour by 4% as Labour drops 7% in latest polling

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Which means the Remain obsessives need to stop vilifying Corbyn., since it's the only party that can defeat the Brexit Party at a general elections.  

There simply isn't a valid Left case for putting the EU question before everything else in the universe, and those leading the fight for that are acting out of reactionary intent.

NorthReport
NorthReport

Now that UKers actually have had a chance to familiarize themselves with the Brexit details, increasingly, a 20 per cent change actually, don't want any part of it. No kidding, as why would you jeopardize things like your public health care system! 

If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU, how would you vote?

Choice / Feb 21 '12 / May 13 '19 / Difference

Remain / 30% / 44% / Up 14%

Leave / 48% / 42% / Down 6%

 

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-there-was-a-referendum-on-britains-membership-of-the-eu-how-would-you-vote-2/

NorthReport

So much for that large Labour lead, eh!

BMG/The Independent

Party / Apr 2-5 / May 7-10 / Jun 4-7

Lab / 31% / 30% / 27% / Down 4%

Con / 29% / 27% / 26% / Down 3% (but presently Leaderless)

LD / 8% / 18% / 17% / Up 9%

Br / 6% / 10% / 18% / Up 12%

josh
NorthReport

Is the party over for Labour as they are now running in 3rd place in latest UK polling

Brexit 26%

Lib Dem 22%

Lab 19%

Cons 17%

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Give it a rest.  Labour would gain nothing in the polls from centering the fight for a second referendum-and if anything, it's the relentless Blairite crusade for Corbyn to disregard party policy on the matter that has given Nigel Farage a comeback.  If the UK had moved on and focused on soft Brexit, Farage would be in the political boneyard.

nicky

No Ken, you are utterly wrong.

Labour would soar in the polls IF it wholehearted opposed Brexit AND IF it had a competent and respected leader instead of the current albatross.

josh

NorthReport wrote:

Is the party over for Labour as they are now running in 3rd place in latest UK polling

Brexit 26%

Lib Dem 22%

Lab 19%

Cons 17%

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

No they are running third in the poll that’s been most unfriendly to Labour. 

josh

nicky wrote:

No Ken, you are utterly wrong.

Labour would soar in the polls IF it wholehearted opposed Brexit AND IF it had a competent and respected leader instead of the current albatross.

You mean like in 2015?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

nicky wrote:

No Ken, you are utterly wrong.

Labour would soar in the polls IF it wholehearted opposed Brexit AND IF it had a competent and respected leader instead of the current albatross.

1) Again, AS YOU KNOW, no Labour leader can ever say "screw party policy as decided at conference-I'm just going to change our position unilaterally".  Corbyn CAN'T do what you so obsessively demand, and neither could anybody who might replace him.

2) Corbyn IS capable and competent.  It's just that he's a socialist who thinks that party should be run by rank-and-file activists.  It's been proved that all the attacks on him were lies:

a)he was never a supporter of or apologist for the IRA, he just supported a unified Ireland in the Eighties-and at that time, supporting Irish unification was the only position you could take if you wanted to end the persecution of the minority community in Ulster; nobody was proposing anything remotely similar to the GFA yet, or anything else short of unification which would end the injustices involved.  And as a back-channel negotiator for Tony Blair later, Corbyn was able to get Sinn Fein to give up the armed struggle and work for Irish unification by electoral means instead.  What the hell was he supposed to to on that front: endorse the Tory/Unionist-Loyalist delusion that the whole conflict was the IRA's fault and that it was somehow possible to end the fighting WITHOUT power-sharing?

b) It's been proved that Corbyn was never indifferent to the need to fight antisemitism and that he did all he could TO fight it.  What would you have him do-endorse the IHRA "guidelines" which, for all practical purposes, make it impossible to say anything at all critical of the Israeli government or show any sympathy for the Palestinians?  Is he supposed to instantly expel anyone who is ACCUSED of antisemitism, when we know, for example, that Margaret Hodge, the arch-Blairite who has been obsessed with dumping Corbyn due to his empathy with the Palestinians and his commitment to internal party democracy, has made 200 accusations of that particular prejudice against people on the Labour Left(she's never made a single accusation against any Blairites, and said nothing when Alistair Campbell proposed series of campaign posters which would have depicted Michael Howard, the then-Conservative leader, and who arrived in Britain as a Jewish war orphan in the Forties before being involuntarily converted to Christianity by his adoptive parents, as an antisemitic caricature), virtually of which turned out to be unwarrented?  And why should Corbyn accept the Blairite canard that antisemitism has suddenly become the most prevalent form of bigotry in the UK, that Jewish people in the UK are somehow facing more bigotry than Muslims, BAME people, LGBTQ people and Roma/Travellers?  Or that this form of bigotry never occurred in the Labour Party before Corbyn became leader and   happens almost entirely in the ranks of Labour activists?  Also, wouldn't pretty much go without saying that a lifetime antiracist activist, as Corbyn is, can simply be assumed to be passionate opponent of antisemitism as well?

BTW, you do, personally, accept the fact that criticism of what the Israeli government does to Palestinians is almost NEVER antisemitic in character, right?
 

c) Corbyn has handled the Brexit question in a very similar way to the strategy Harold Wilson used on the EEC question in the Seventies:  Labour was deeply split, then and now, on Europe, and Wilson largely took a middle ground on the matter as opposition leader.  Once Labour was elected, a referendum was called almost immediately.

Why can't you accept that approach this time, especially since it's not possible for Corbyn to force enough Labour MPs to vote for a second referendum as long as the Tory minority government remains in power.  If Wilson had done what you want Corbyn to do now and put the Europe issue ahead of all other things, he clearly would have been doomed to lose the election that had be held by 1975 and what you wanted would never have happened.

That's what would happen if Corbyn did what you wanted; every Labour Leave voter from '15 would vote Brexit Party for as long as it took to make sure Brexit happened.  Nothing but Tory landslides could come of that.

Or...is that what you secretly want, here? To see Labour lose badly under Corbyn or anyone else to the left of Blair-as it would have to do if it centered the pointless demand for a referendum-and they to impose a Blairite restoration, a restoration that the majority of the party will never be made to want and can never lead to another Labour victory?

Corbyn has been leader in a tough time.  None of those who stood against him in 2015 or in the pointless 2016 revote would be doing any better.  I mean seriously-how could Owen Smith, a man who never had anyone at all show up at his 2016 leadership rallies and who proved himself a Tory by taking a job as a lobbyist for Pfizer, possibly have a better handle on the situation?  Or Yvette Cooper, who still thinks the Iraq War was right?  Or Andy Burnham, who never had any enthusiastic, passionate support from anyone and who offered no worthwhile ideas as a leadership candidate?  Or Liz Kendall, who wanted Labour to move to the right of Blair?

You can't seriously argue that anybody who was in any way connected to the Labour establishment would be offering anything the voters would connect with, anything that would make any real difference in anyone's life.  Or anything that would bring anyone under 40 to the polls.

 

b) He never supported Hezbollah or Hamas.  All he was guilty of was using diplomatic language to try to get those groups into talks with the Israelis-just as he had done to get Sinn Fein into the talks that had to happen to end The Troubles and to establish power-sharing.  Since it isn't possible to end any part of the Israel/Palestine conflict by military means-since there's not ever going to be a moment where a Palestinian delegation signs a "VJ Day"-style unconditional surrender treater on the deck of the USS Missouri, what alternative is there to trying to reach out and move Hamas and Hezbollah from the armed struggle to negotiations?

NorthReport

Latest poll

Brexit 24%

Lab 21%

Cons 21%

Lib Dem 19%

 

 

NorthReport

YouGov/ The Times

Brexit - 23%

Lib Dems - 21%

Lab - 20%

Cons - 20%

Grn - 9%

josh
robbie_dee

Voting Liberal will not stop Brexit. Voting Labour might not, either, but at least it would stop the Tories. I don't think Johnson can hold a majority in Parliament right now more importantly I don't think he wants to. His chances of winning an election aren't going to get better after crashing out of the EU in October. I think there's going to be an election in September and the Conservatives are going to run on a hard Brexit platform to fend off Farage. Corbyn + Labour are the only real alternative to that.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

And that means it's time for every anti-Corbynite to STOP pushing for the man to stand down before an election, because there's no time to have a properly democratic leadership contest to replace him and because we can assume that anyone who'd be voted in to replace him in an old-fashioned, MPs-only leadership vote would be a Blairite reactionary who'd be rejected by the Labour base.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

In those polls, Brexit Party support seems to be solid, for the moment, at about quarter of the electorate, with LibDem support at 15-16%.  More evidence that Labour would gain nothing from changing party policy to center the second referendum issue-for ever vote Labour MIGHT gain from the LibDems or Greens, it would lose a vote to the Brexit Party.  

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

(self-delete.  Reposting in a different thread).

NorthReport

But I'm sure the "fuck the people" approach by Boris once the UK PM will prevail.

Public would prefer to cancel Brexit or hold second referendum than Halloween no-deal, poll shows

Exclusive: If a deal cannot be brokered, revoking Article 50 emerges as the favoured option

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKFTtYx2OHc

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-cancel-second-referendum-no-deal-halloween-next-prime-minister-boris-johnson-a8991351.html

NorthReport

Now that it's a foregone conclusion that Johnson will replace May as PM, the Conservatives lead in 3 of the 4 most recent polls and the Brexit Party is included in the polling. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#National_poll_results

NorthReport

Latest UK polling showing Labour 4% out of 1st place but only 2% out of 4th place

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

 

josh

Notice that every recent poll has Labour leading except for YouGov.

NorthReport
NorthReport

Conservatives are leading in all six of the most recent polls

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

josh

Not a surprise they get a new PM/leader bounce.  Mostly by taking votes from the Brexit party.  And lead is small except for the ubiquitous and ridiculous YouGov.

nicky

Josh, do you mean the ridiculous YouGuv poll which was the only one that get the recent EU election dead on?

 

josh

No, the ridiculous YouGov poll that always has Labour far lower than any other poll.

nicky
NorthReport

Looks like the dam has burst, practically drowning the Labourites.

And Ken it looks like you need to stop braying like an ass, as nicky appears to be dead on with his forecasts.

Conservatives take 14 percent point lead over Labour - Kantar poll

 

 

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party has opened up a 14 percentage point lead over the opposition Labour Party as Johnson’s tougher stance on Brexit wins back supporters, according to a poll published on Wednesday.

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll/conservatives-take-14-percent-point-lead-over-labour-kantar-poll-idUKKCN1VB0RU

josh

Same or worse polling for Labour leading up to the 2017 election.  And, theoretically, there may not be an election for three years.  

The Tories’ commitment to finally implement the 2016 referendum has brought them a bushel of votes from the Brexit party.  The best thing for Labour would be for brexit to finally take place, thereby removing it as an issue.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

It would be different if the PLP agreed that McDonnell would be on the leadership ballot, but they'll block everyone but the useless Yvonne Cooper-Tom Watson-Margaret Hodge types, the people who can never be popular with the electorate OR enunciate a clear difference with the Tories-Labour moderates don't disagree with the Tories on any major issues.

BTW, North, I noticed that you've used the "braying like an ass" thing in at least two entirely different threads today.  Is it just your "phrase of the day" or something?

Aristotleded24

nicky wrote:
Josh, do you mean the ridiculous YouGuv poll which was the only one that get the recent EU election dead on?

Would the poor performances of the BC NDP in 2013, the Ontario NDP in 2014, and the Nova Scotia NDP in 2013 have been reason to dump Mulcair as the leader of the federal party?

nicky

No legitimate comparisons Aristotle. 

Unlike Canadianprovincial elections, UK local and EU elections are seen as national votes that reflect on the Westminster leadership.

also Tom maintained a roughly 2 to 1 favourable rating. Corbyn’s is 4 to 1 NEGATIVE.

you Corbynistas are really whistling past the graveyard.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

nicky wrote:

No legitimate comparisons Aristotle. 

Unlike Canadianprovincial elections, UK local and EU elections are seen as national votes that reflect on the Westminster leadership.

also Tom maintained a roughly 2 to 1 favourable rating. Corbyn’s is 4 to 1 NEGATIVE.

you Corbynistas are really whistling past the graveyard.

Choosing a centrist as leader will be the death of the Labour Party and you know it.  Everyone who actually wants a clearl break from the status quo would vote Green.   Nobody who ever cared about the poor or who wants the NHS saved would think it was worth voting Labour under another Blairite.

And there is no one at all on the Labour right who has any personal popularity with any sector of the electorate-no personal tolerability.

Even the anti-Corbyn MPs don't think a Labour victory under a "moderate", even if it were possible, would matter.  And the anti-Corbynites, quite frankly, don't want elections to matter-they just want to get to say that Labour is THEIR party and no one else's.  If that makes it a party nobody wants to vote for, they don't care-making it impossible to ever get a non-Tory government again will just get them more corporate directorships and a faster route to the Honours Lists.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Now that Jo Swindon is blocking the only chance there is for a second referendum-Corbyn's interim government proposal-it's likely the next polls will see a sharp drop in LibDem support.  After all, Remain was the only issue the LibDems had, and since they no longer have any right to claim to be pro-Remain, there's no way they'll hold their most recent poll share.

Aristotleded24

nicky wrote:
No legitimate comparisons Aristotle. 

Unlike Canadianprovincial elections, UK local and EU elections are seen as national votes that reflect on the Westminster leadership.

also Tom maintained a roughly 2 to 1 favourable rating. Corbyn’s is 4 to 1 NEGATIVE.

you Corbynistas are really whistling past the graveyard.

Because the national media never looks at provincial results in one province and tries to extrapolate it to other provinces or onto the federal scene? There wasn't any discussion about how Ford's victory in last year's provincial election would help Scheer federally? There was no discussion about how Notley's victory in Alberta in 2015 was an indicator of change to come? That wave after wave of conservative governments being elected in the provinces didn't possibly suggest momentum for the federal party? Heck, I can even remember discussion about NDP disappointment after Olivia Chow finished third in the Toronto mayoral race.

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:
Now that Jo Swindon is blocking the only chance there is for a second referendum-Corbyn's interim government proposal-it's likely the next polls will see a sharp drop in LibDem support.  After all, Remain was the only issue the LibDems had, and since they no longer have any right to claim to be pro-Remain, there's no way they'll hold their most recent poll share.

Even if you wanted to stop Brexit (which I don't, because that's what people voted for, and josh and NDPP have repeatedly pointed out the structural flaws within the EU system) I've been saying that the focus needs to be on other issues, as that is the only way to move people away from fighting over it and remove the Conservatives from power.

nicky
NorthReport

It looks like the LibDems are neck and neck with Labour both now trailing the Cons. With Labour's lack of clarity on the Brexit issue, it looks like the LibDems will probably become the main opposition to the Cons. Too bad!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

NorthReport wrote:

It looks like the LibDems are neck and neck with Labour both now trailing the Cons. With Labour's lack of clarity on the Brexit issue, it looks like the LibDems will probably become the main opposition to the Cons. Too bad!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Give it a rest, North.  It's enought that Corbyn's pledged a second referendum.  It's not possible for Labour to go total Remain and there's no point in the push to force Labour to do that.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Replacing Corbyn could only improve things if the PLP allowed an actual left-winger on the leadership ballot.  They won't do it.  This is why the requirement that leadership candidates get MP endorsement needs to be removed from the leadership electio process.

There is no reason Labour MPs should have any greater say about who gets to stand for leader than any other part of the party-especially since every anti-Corbyn MP is holding a constituency that would vote Labour no matter where the Labour candidate was on the ideological spectrum.

NorthReport

Looks like Labour by not coming out clearly against Brexit are being overtaken by the LibDems

Too bad but it was quite clear that would happen 

josh

The poll that had the Tories up 14 over Labour had Labour up 13 over the Lib Dems.  So I don’t know where you get that from.

NorthReport

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