US Election 2016 Polling - started Feb 16, 2016

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Sean in Ottawa

In fairness Trump has exposed the GOP for what it is and people are getting to vote on that.

NorthReport

New York, Trump's home state,
Clinton now leads by 30%

NorthReport

Trump whacked by another damaging poll

The Republican nominee's backslide shows no sign of easing.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-poll-august-slide-227051

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport
Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:
">http://election.princeton.edu/2016/08/21/sharpening-the-forecast/#more-1...

This is an interesting article. Much of the article is scientific but the explanation for it is pure conjecture. It is possible that the change is due to Gingrich as the article suggests but there are other possibilities as well.

1992 was also the end of the idea of a unified media and the rise of the internet and custom design of media sources.

From 1996 was the launch of Fox news. No longer would the population watch the same news cast and filter it differently, they would no longer watch the same news. With the Internet, twitter, varied choices we have increasingly gotten to the point where everyone has a self-preserving bubble of information that validates and supports their current point of view. In this context it is hardly surprising that a campaign run from different ideological directions would not move many people.

There are exceptions. consider that there is a Conservative and a Progressive community -- generally. When the opinion leaders of those line up behind a candidate, expect the campaign to get those audiences as voters and for there to be little independent consideration. In fact truth is hardly relevant so much is the loyalty of the larger ideological movements. I suggest this is as much related to technology and change in media as it has to do with Newt Gingrich -- and that this phenomenon is not unique to the US.

Elections, however, are not about big changes -- many elections can be decided by a movement of less than 5% of the population. In Canada that is the difference between majority and opposition.

Also, when you have one of the ideological camps (Conservative and Progressive) split, more interesting things can happen. In the present US election the Republican party is divided with key people who dislike Trump. The result is that serious criticism of Trump may appear in the right wing channels when otherwise it would not be there this close to an election. This means that interesting things can still happen including both a further decline for Trump or a recovery -- the sheltered custom right wing news is debating this.

In Canada, we had the same thing last year. Progressive channels debated the NDP / Liberal / vote-boycott choices and that is where the action was. The Conservative bubble changed very little and the election result showed that the Liberals brought in more non-voters and took a good many NDP voters. It is no coincidence that the bubbles preserve opinion and only when they are divided do big changes happen.

I found the article interesting but not quite seeing the big picture. Perhaps becuase the article is based on US navel gazing rather than using a more global persepective to look at trends. I think similar tables would show that Canada has followed the same basic trend so this is not a unique US phenomenon.

NorthReport

Poll: Clinton up big on Trump in Virginia - 16%, this is huge!

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/23/politics/virginia-poll-clinton-over-trump/...

NorthReport

Predicting Turnout in an Unpredictable Race

It’s clear that Hillary Clinton is winning. Beyond that, things get tricky.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/640792?unlock=XBKX9FQVTAWR4EKW&mref=ho...

NorthReport

This is a biggie folks!

Poll: Trump, Clinton knotted in Missouri

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/poll-clinton-trump-missouri-227313

NorthReport

Another terrible, no good, very bad day for Trump!

Clinton stretches lead over Trump to 12 points: Reuters/Ipsos poll

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican rival Donald Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters, her strongest showing this month, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Tuesday.

The Aug. 18-22 poll showed that 45 percent of voters supported Clinton, while 33 percent backed Trump ahead of the Nov. 8 election.

Clinton, the former U.S. secretary of state, has led Trump, a New York businessman, throughout most of the 2016 campaign. But her latest lead represents a stronger level of support than polls indicated over the past few weeks. Earlier in August, Clinton’s lead over Trump ranged from 3 to 9 percentage points in the poll.

 

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/08/clinton-stretches-lead-over-trump-to-12-...

josh

State polls not looking too good for Herr Trump right now.

NorthReport

Poll: Clinton up 14 in battleground state of Florida

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/08/23/clinto...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Wow! Landslide Hillary.
No wonder Clinton doesn't feel the need to bother with press conferences

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/clintons-advisers-tell-her-to-prep...

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:
Wow! Landslide Hillary. No wonder Clinton doesn't feel the need to bother with press conferences
">http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/clintons-advisers-tell-her-to-prep...

I think the presumption that she is safe is a delusion. She might well win but there is no safety.

NorthReport

Usually after 2 terms the other party wins the presidency unless their candidate is a real doofus

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/election-forecasters-try-to-brin...

Cody87

Don't worry Sean, she is safe. Her favourability is going up with some of her core demographics:

Oh, wait...

Sean in Ottawa

This is not an election that is very predictable. There is enough of a constituency to elect something nasty. There is anough propaganda going around to confuse a majority.

NorthReport
Cody87

Sorry Sean, I was being facetious. I agree with you that she is not safe, and was intending to reinforce your point by showing how the media is attempting to make her position look stronger than it is. For example, in the CNN graph I showed which shows significantly declining support but put the "Now" column on the left to make it appear like her support is growing. Speaking of propaganda.

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport

 

 

What constitutes a good poll?

September 6th, 2016, 1:55pm by Sam Wang

Update: that’s quite a data point in Vermont. Investigating…

Holidays are over. I see that journalists, including poll aggregators, are still focused on the Presidential horserace. As Electoral-Vote.com has pointed out, sites such as FiveThirtyEight are under economic pressure to attract traffic. And there is nothing to attract eyeballs like a crazy Presidential race. Still, from a substantive standpoint, it might be more appropriate to spend efforts on, I dunno…issues? See this excellent critique of media coverage by Jeff Jarvis, which includes a good hard whack at the media obsession with “balance” and polls – basically, tricks to let reporters escape engaging head-on with substantive issues. If journalists insist on horserace coverage, at least focus on downticket races in Senate, House, and even state legislatures – and maybe write about some issues along the way. These races will determine the power dynamic in 2017 under the new President, whoever she may be.

Just to remind everyone, variations in this year’s race are quite narrow, consistent with the  last 20 years of partisan polarization. Polarization has made both the GOP and Democratic nominees unacceptable to nearly all supporters of the other party. In addition, Donald Trump is radioactive to about one-fifth of his own party. As a result, this year’s race is full of melodrama, but numerically stable. In 2016, the Princeton Election Consortium’s state poll-based aggregate has only varied between a median outcome of 310 and 350 EV for Hillary Clinton.

The Meta-Margin, which is defined as the front-runner’s effective lead using Electoral College mechanisms, is a very low-noise and stable measure – as opposed to single polls, which can be all over the place. Ignore single polls. The Meta-Margin has varied between Clinton +2.5% and Clinton +6.5%, and is now at Clinton +4.0%, close to the season average of 3.8%. If it got of the 2.5-6.5% range, that would be interesting. That has not occurred yet.

>>>

I want to make a brief note about data.

As in past elections, we rely on the good people at HuffPollster.com for our polling feed. In 2008-2014, their quality control consisted of making sure a survey met disclosure standards such as those set by AAPOR. They also provide readers with tools to include/exclude polls by checking/unchecking boxes. I find the combined approach to be democratizing – and one of the great virtues HuffPollster. It is also well-suited to the analysis approach used here.

This year they are being more aggressive. They are excluding from their database polls that are done on landlines only, as well as Interactive Voice Response (IVR) surveys (“robo-polls”). The rationale is that these categories of poll are less reliable than newer methods. PEC’s current approach for data scraping limits us to whatever they provide, so this effectively excludes these polls from our calculation.

I would have preferred for them to continue to include the maximum diversity of polls, and then set their default checkboxes to leave out landlines and IVR surveys from their own averaging procedure. That would take into account their professional expertise, but would still allow users to have a single data source. The resulting feed would make them the unambiguous preferred choice over other sources such as RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight.

If you agree with my suggestion, feel free to email them a friendly note at [email protected]. If you disagree, and you think everything is fine…the comment section is below!

 

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/09/06/what-constitutes-a-good-poll/

NorthReport

Has Trump hit his ceiling?

In poll after poll, the GOP presidential nominee isn’t even close to winning a majority of the vote.

 

Donald Trump has run head-first into an electoral wall.

In poll after poll, Trump isn't even close to winning a majority of the vote. While he’s narrowed the gap between his campaign and Hillary Clinton in recent weeks, in the past 21 national polls conducted using conventional phone or internet methodologies over the last five weeks, Trump’s high-water mark in a head-to-head matchup with Clinton is 44 percent.

And when third-party candidates — Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein — are included, Trump’s highest poll score is only 40 percent, well below Clinton’s high of 50 percent.

The GOP presidential nominee’s limited support isn’t necessarily prohibitive for his chances — especially if Johnson and Stein continue to draw, combined, more than 10 percent of the vote. He only trails Clinton by 4 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average and by 5 points in the HuffPost Pollster model. But if support for the third-party candidates dwindles closer to Election Day, Trump’s inability to expand his base could tilt the race further toward Clinton or require him to find a way to win with only a plurality of the vote, rather than a majority.

The national polls are striking, even with Trump drawing closer to Clinton in recent weeks. Of the 21 surveys that tested just Trump and Clinton, the Republican failed to break 40 percent four times. In most of the polls — 12 out of 21 — Trump was at either 41 or 42 percent.

Only two polls showed Trump hitting 44 percent: a Bloomberg News phone poll in early August that had Clinton leading by 6 points, and an Economist-YouGov web survey later in the month that showed Clinton ahead by 3 points.

Clinton, meanwhile, earned 50 percent or greater in 6 of the 21 polls.

The numbers aren’t much better for Trump in the four-way matchups with Johnson and Stein. In those 28 polls conducted since the beginning of August, Trump only hit the 40-percent mark four times — three of them automated-phone surveys from Rasmussen Reports, which has a consistent and heavy Republican lean.

Overall, Trump was at 37 percent or under in half of the 28 four-way surveys. Clinton, meanwhile, topped out at 50 percent in a Monmouth University survey last month. But, more recently, she has mostly been in the low-40s in ballot-test questions including Johnson and Stein.

The battleground-state polls also point to a low Trump ceiling. He currently trails in all 11 states that comprise POLITICO’s Battleground States project. And in the 54 polls across those 11 states that make up the polling average, he’s only broken 45 percent three times: He was at 45 percent in Quinnipiac University polls conducted in late July and early August in Florida and Ohio, and he was at 47 percent in a CNN/ORC poll in North Carolina last month.

But even despite those higher numbers, Trump trailed Clinton in all three of those polls, albeit only narrowly.

(A note on methodology: The national polls used in POLITICO’s analysis were compiled from RealClearPolitics, including all surveys conducted beginning on August 1, with a couple of exceptions. The Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California tracking poll — which has showed better results for Trump than other polls — was excluded since it re-interviews the same respondents repeatedly over time, and because it uses self-reported 2012 vote as a fixed weight. And polls by Gravis Marketing — from which the Trump-friendly website Breitbart News is also commissioning surveys — are also excluded, since Gravis eschews undecided voters in some of their releases.)

During the GOP primaries, Trump’s critics frequently pointed to what they said was his ceiling among Republican voters. But while there were times during the primaries when his support leveled out, Trump's path to the nomination consisted of a number of surges that ultimately ended with the real-estate magnate being the choice of a majority of GOP voters nationwide.

The general election, thus far, has been markedly different. Clinton has led Trump consistently, with just a few exceptions. And even though recent weeks show a slight uptick in Trump's numbers, there's no similar long-term trend that suggests he is poised to hit new highs in support among all general-election voters in the coming weeks.

With just two months left in the campaign, that leaves Trump with a tall task to break through his ceiling: He needs to convince more voters who don’t like him to vote for him.

According to HuffPost Pollster, Trump’s average unfavorable rating is 58 percent — a number that closely resembles the percentage of voters who don’t choose him in general-election matchups. (Trump’s average score in two-way polls with Clinton is 42.1 percent, according to RealClearPolitics.)

Clinton isn’t popular, either: Her unfavorables are nearly as high as Trump’s, with her average unfavorable rating sitting at 55 percent. (Clinton is at 46 percent in a two-way ballot test, per the RealClearPolitics average.)

Another reason Trump’s support is limited, compared to Clinton? In matchups with her — even without the third-party candidates — he is winning fewer Republicans than she is winning Democrats.

Trump is winning under 82 percent of Republicans in an average of the seven most-recent head-to-head polls that provided results by political party. Clinton, meanwhile, is winning nearly 85 percent of self-identified Democrats.

The voters who identify with each party but aren't yet supporting that party's standard-bearer are higher than in previous elections. But each candidate faces obstacles in bringing those voters home — specifically, those voters' perceptions of the candidates' images.

For now, Trump’s gains are as much a result as a slight uptick in his support as a decline in Clinton’s from her post-convention high. One month ago, on August 6, Clinton led Trump by 8.3 points, 48.1 percent to 39.8 percent, according to HuffPost Pollster.

Today, Clinton’s lead has shrunk to 5.4 points: 47 percent to 41.6 percent. Clinton has lost a little over a point since Aug. 6, while Trump has gained a little under 2 points. (RealClearPolitics shows similar numbers: Clinton has lost 1.2 points, while Trump has gained 1.7 points.)

Neither candidate has much more room to grow, however, despite less-than-stellar numbers among their own partisans. A Fox News poll released last week — which found Clinton leading Trump by 6 points, 48 percent to 42 percent, in a head-to-head matchup — asked follow-up questions to respondents after the ballot test that explore what a Trump ceiling could look like on Election Day: If you weren’t supporting Clinton or Trump, they asked, would you ever consider it?

Only 13 percent of those not backing Trump (which made up 58 percent of all respondents) said they could imagine voting for him, while 85 percent said they would never even consider it. Even allocating those who aren’t currently backing Trump but can imagine doing so under some circumstances, that puts the GOP nominee between 49 and 50 percent of the vote.

Clinton isn’t on pace to win a broad mandate if she prevails on November 8: Just 13 percent of the 52 percent not backing her said they could consider doing so. But that vaults her potential ceiling to just under 55 percent, about 5 points clear of Trump’s.

With nine weeks until Election Day, Trump will have opportunities to reset voters’ perceptions of him — especially with three nationally televised debates on the calendar. But with a ceiling currently between 40 and 44 percent, he’s at a distinct disadvantage against Clinton. And in order to claim a majority of the vote on Election Day, polls indicate he will have to win over voters who right now say they have decided they can’t ever vote for him.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-polling-227750

NorthReport

Remember 2 things about websites:

1 - you get more hits if it's a horserace.

2 - this website almost completely missed what Trump was doing in the primaries.

Don't be nervous, Trumpism will not win.

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-keeps-...

NorthReport

Hillary Clinton has an 84% chance of winning the presidency.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-foreca...

NorthReport

Five reasons Hillary could be blowing it

Or, why Clinton fans might want to invest in mattress pads.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/is-hillary-clinton-losing-227774

NorthReport
NorthReport
Sean in Ottawa

Polls are last week's news.

The anger is real and Trump is the angry candidate.

A single major bit of news could move those poll numbers. Don't count this in the bag.

Sean in Ottawa

To elaborate further -- one big bankruptcy; one stock market reversal; one significant increase in unemployment; any really bad news for Trump's constituency. Have a good look at what was behind Brexit.

NorthReport

Hillary Clinton has an 83% chance of winning the presidency.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-foreca...

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Hillary Clinton has an 83% chance of winning the presidency.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-foreca...

I agree she has an advantage that is huge but I am pointing out that some of your language is suggesting certainty that can not exist. The dynamics are different and I have little respect for those trumpeting chances that are mathematical like x%. They are delusional or fraudulent. Entertainment tonight.

Things can happen and there is no model for the particular circumstance we see. The models are based on very different dynamics than what we see -- a standard that does not apply.

Usually at least one of the candidates has more popularity than this.

NorthReport

Last time I looked the electoral college count showed Clinton at 347 and Trump with 191 

http://frontloading.blogspot.ca/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

NorthReport
NorthReport

Bad, bad news!

Poll: Trump leads Clinton by 5 points in Ohio

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/09/trump-c...

NorthReport

Clinton continues to slip!

Who Will Be President?

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-foreca...

NorthReport

Clinton's slipping!

2016 Presidential Election Map

http://www.270towin.com/

NorthReport

Election Update: Has Clinton’s ‘Bad Weekend’ Moved The Polls?There’s been a moderate shift toward Trump, but it’s too soon to say for sure.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-has-clintons-bad-wee...

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport

I don't think Hillary's team is any match for the Trump machine and she appears to be losing the race.

Unless there are wholesale changes to Clinton's campaign team how do you say 'President Trump'?

NorthReport

A Poll Says Trump’s Up Five Points in Ohio. Is It Time to Freak Out? A dialogue.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/09/poll_sa...

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport

!!!

NorthReport

Election Update: Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-democrats-should-pan...

Cody87

Hillary Clinton Regains Momentum Against Donald Trump

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/hillary-clinton-regains-mom...

Back on the campaign trail after being diagnosed with pneumonia and a subsequent break from campaigning, Hillary Clinton plugged her leaking lead against Donald Trump, according to this week's NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll.

She now enjoys 50 percent support among likely voters and Trump has 45 percent support.

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