US Election 2016 Polling - started Feb 16, 2016

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NorthReport
NorthReport

How low can Trump go in the polls?

New surveys suggest the GOP nominee is perilously close to a historic rebuke.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-polling-229916

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Cody87

I'll just leave these here:

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/8587

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democ...

When every indicator except the corporate polls shows Trump winning by a blowout, it might be time to question whether or not the polls you see reflect reality or not.

Is the Democratic campaign acting like a campaign leading by double digits? Is attendance at Trump rallies up or down? Which candidate has a stronger social media presence? 

If you believe the guy who said Trump has a 2% chance to win the Republican nomination when he says Trump has only a 10% chance to win the general, amidst increasingly damaging (for Clinton) leaks/releases from not only wikileaks but now also the fbi and project veritas, then you are a fool.

You are being lied to.

Cody87

Oh, I forgot to warn you. CNN claims it is illegal for private citizens (but not the media) to access/"possess" wikileaks as they were obtained by illegal means. Follow that link above at your own risk.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_X16_KzX1vE

Like I said, you are being lied to.

JKR

Cody87 wrote:

When every indicator except the corporate polls shows Trump winning by a blowout, it might be time to question whether or not the polls you see reflect reality or not.

Is the Democratic campaign acting like a campaign leading by double digits? Is attendance at Trump rallies up or down? Which candidate has a stronger social media presence? 

If you believe the guy who said Trump has a 2% chance to win the Republican nomination when he says Trump has only a 10% chance to win the general, amidst increasingly damaging (for Clinton) leaks/releases from not only wikileaks but now also the fbi and project veritas, then you are a fool.

You are being lied to.

It will be interesting reviewing these kinds of posts on November 8th to determine who the fools are.

Misfit Misfit's picture

If Trump was really leading in the polls, he wouldn't be crying about rigged elections. Only a fool is unable to see that.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Some babblers may recall that 4 years ago, the same right wing media outlets were pushing a theory that Romney was actually ahead, even though the polls showed him 6 or 8 percent behind Obama. The wingnuts insisted that all the polls were "skewed", and they went on to publish their own "unskewed" versions, which showed Romney leading. Unfortunately for them, it was their own ideas that turned out to be skewed when the ballots were counted.

NorthReport

Bingo!

Having a political horse race is good for the TV ratings

By all accounts Clinton should blow the Chump out of the water
If she doesn't crush him it would be a surprise

NorthReport

Synch And Swim: Quantifying The Coattail Effect

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/18/synch-and-swim/

NorthReport

Should Clinton Play For An Electoral College Landslide?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-clinton-play-for-an-electoral...

Cody87

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Some babblers may recall that 4 years ago, the same right wing media outlets were pushing a theory that Romney was actually ahead, even though the polls showed him 6 or 8 percent behind Obama. The wingnuts insisted that all the polls were "skewed", and they went on to publish their own "unskewed" versions, which showed Romney leading. Unfortunately for them, it was their own ideas that turned out to be skewed when the ballots were counted.

There is a huge debate about this in right-leaning circles that has been going on for months. Those who were fooled in 2012 refuse to be fooled again (by those who say the polls are wrong), while the newer players (typically) point out that Trump is not Romney and that there are many differences in other indicators and factors this year (primary turnout, rally size, insider vs outsider,etc).

I'm not certain the polls are wrong, but I do consider them at least questionable and my previous post is intended just as a caution that even if the insiders know the polls are off (by 20 points!!) that they will not tell the public.

I really like polls that ask how many people voted Obama in 2012. That makes it easier to determine how representative the sample is, though it does nothing to capture the first time and returning voters that will show up mostly for Trump.

josh
bekayne

http://www.wingia.com/web/files/richeditor/filemanager/WINGIA_Global_Pol...

A global poll conducted by a network of leading pollsters reveals that the American Presidential Election is arousing widespread engagement across the world, where a vast majority is keen to tell pollsters their favourite between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The poll carried out among 45 countries, covering nearly 75% of world population shows that Hillary Clinton is ahead of Donald Trump in all but one country, Russia. She is remarkably popular in Western Europe, Latin America and Africa. Donald Trump is popular in Russia and China.

Misfit Misfit's picture

And Canada.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Misfit wrote:
And Canada.

This reads as if it is stating that Trump is popular in Canada. The poll actually shows HRC leading Trump in Canada 69% to 12%.

NorthReport

Yesterday a poll showed Clinton leading the Chump by 7% in Nevada.

Today Clinton is leading the Chump in, of all places, Arizona, by 5%

Poll: Clinton beating Trump by 5 in Arizona

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/poll-arizona-clinton-beating-trump...

NorthReport

Did Sam Wang call this or what, eh!

 

It’s All Over Now, Baby Blue; Debate #3October 19th, 2016, 8:02pm by Sam Wang 

If you don’t believe me…yesterday, PaddyPower paid out its Clinton-to-win bets.

 

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/19/its-all-over-now-baby-blue-deba...

 

NorthReport

If you want sizzle watch CNN or read Nate Silver. If you want the steak follow Sam Wang.

The predictive value of GOP Presidential polls

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/01/05/what-december-polls-can-tell-us...

NorthReport

Sweet! Smile

The spread is getting up there. Could Clinton double Trump's Electoral College count? Just askin'

EC: 330 vs 208  

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/26/politics-polls-17-all-the-way/

1,686

NorthReport

Let's Rock & Roll!  Laughing

With 19 Days to Go, Clinton’s Lead Is Bigger Than EverArizona leans HRC; McMullin rises in the west; dark red states take on lighter hue

The mist is lifting from the map of the United States and the moment of clarity for the 2016 general election campaign has arrived. Yes, there is still uncertainty about some states in the Electoral College. But nearly all of it comes in states that Mitt Romney won in 2012 or a couple of Barack Obama states that Hillary Clinton doesn’t need to win.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/with-19-days-to-go...

NorthReport

Ever the constructive comments.

Why did the polls seem so variable this week?

I view PEC as a tool for directing your positive energies to make a difference. Instead of staring at polling sites all the time at the Presidential race, which is basically decided, I have a better idea: work on races where we genuinely don’t know what will happen. Senate control is totally up in the air.There is Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania…so much to do. Donate your time and money to the side that you favor. Or, use the Competitive House Race Finder in the left sidebar.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/27/why-do-the-polls-seem-so-variab...

 

1,699

NorthReport

Clinton just went up in the polls.

How can that be?

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_electi...

NorthReport

Cody

You might want to hedge your bets, eh!  Laughing

Clinton lead over Trump virtually unchanged despite FBI news, poll says

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/31/clinton-lead-over-trump-virtually-unchang...

NorthReport
Misfit Misfit's picture

I think the Democrats are behind all the race tightening hype going on. With the Dem's so far ahead in the polls, there was complacency with the voters to the extent that they may not have gone out to vote. With a tight race and a sense of urgency that the Republicans could take the election, the Democrats are now rallying to get their vote out, and they have the ground game to do it. The winds are starting to shift back to the Democrats. Go Hillary!!!

Cody87

You might be right. Trump supporters were super excited until Wednesday night but since then most of them have been really bummed out. Maybe they can sense it too.

NorthReport

Oh, my!

Quite the stats at the top of the page just released at 5 PM today.

Beyoncé and Me

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/05/beyonce-and-me/

NorthReport
iyraste1313

Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

...anyone who takes these polls seriously cannot be taken seriously

Mr. Magoo

Quote:
...anyone who takes these polls seriously cannot be taken seriously

Really?

Because I've heard elsewhere that if Trump's victories and losses aren't consistent with his polling, that will be undeniable evidence that that the election was rigged just as he said.

Cody87

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
...anyone who takes these polls seriously cannot be taken seriously

Really?

Because I've heard elsewhere that if Trump's victories and losses aren't consistent with his polling, that will be undeniable evidence that that the election was rigged just as he said.

That's not what I said and you know it. I said if Trump unexpectedly wins blue paper ballot states (as well as red ones, as expected) but unexpectedly loses red electronic states, then that will be seen as an indication of election fraud.

There is no other plausible explanation for Trump winning NY and NJ (and other similar blue paper ballot states) but losing Texas (and other red electronic no paper trail states).

Mr. Magoo

Quote:
That's not what I said and you know it. I said if Trump unexpectedly wins blue paper ballot states (as well as red ones, as expected) but unexpectedly loses red electronic states, then that will be seen as an indication of election fraud.

That's pretty much exactly what I said, Cody.

Cody87

There is a difference between results being inconsistent with polls and results being inconsistent with firmly established historical trends. 

 

If next election Alberta goes Liberal and Newfoundland goes Conservative, and Alberta has paperless electronic voting by machines tied to the Liberals, that would raise more than a few eyebrows regardless of what the polling says.

From a voter fraud perspective, it's fine if everywhere goes Liberal or everywhere goes Conservative (not suspicious, everywhere trends the same way), but if areas trend more predictably based on how the votes are counted than historical patterns that suggests fraud.

Mr. Magoo

Quote:
If next election Alberta goes Liberal and Newfoundland goes Conservative, and Alberta has paperless electronic voting by machines tied to the Liberals, that would raise more than a few eyebrows regardless of what the polling says.

Are you saying that you have more than a few eyebrows?

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
If next election Alberta goes Liberal and Newfoundland goes Conservative, and Alberta has paperless electronic voting by machines tied to the Liberals, that would raise more than a few eyebrows regardless of what the polling says.

Are you saying that you have more than a few eyebrows?

Worthy of the great Groucho.Laughing

Misfit Misfit's picture

And Animal from the Muppets has only one eyebrow. We must be inclusive of our purple furry friends!

NorthReport
NorthReport

!!!

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