The left's case against lockdowns

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NDPP

French high-school students make their case FOR lockdowns...

 

Violence Erupts as High School Students Clash With Police on Streets of Paris (and vid)

https://on.rt.com/aukn

"Teachers and students have been opposing the government's decision to keep schools open during the nationwide lockdown, arguing that being forced into a crowded environment puts their health at risk..."

Aristotleded24

Pondering wrote:
Canadians were 85% against Bill 51. The Liberals supported Harper on it anyway promising to "fix it" if they won the next election.

C 51 actually had majority support in the early days:

Quote:

February 19, 2015 – Canadians are firmly supportive of Bill C-51, the federal government’s proposed anti-terror legislation that contains a range of measures that would, among other things, provide law enforcement agencies with expanded powers.

Four-in-five (82%) adult Canadians surveyed online by the Angus Reid Institute say they support the draft law, with fully one-quarter (25%) saying they “strongly” support C-51.

Key Findings:

  • Support for some individual elements of the legislation is stronger than for the draft law as a whole
  • One-in-three (36%) respondents say the bill “does not go far enough”
  • Most Canadians (69%) want additional oversight to ensure law enforcement’s powers aren’t abused
  • The majority (63%) also say they trust those agencies to access and use Canadians’ personal information only for anti-terrorism purposes and nothing else

Aristotleded24

More evidence from the UK that lockdowns work:

Quote:

It’s well-known that local restrictions failed to prevent the autumn surge in COVID-19 infections. The areas placed under such restrictions during the summer were among the worst affected in the autumn.

Despite this, it is now becoming commonplace to claim that the Tier 3 restrictions were responsible for bringing the R rate down ahead of the national lockdown. But does this stand up to scrutiny?

In at least seven areas placed under Tier 3 restrictions in October, including the cities of Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield and Nottingham, positive case numbers had peaked and begun to decline days, in some cases weeks, before the new restrictions came into effect (let alone allowing for the delay in their having an impact).

This suggests local lockdowns are not necessary to end the current seasonal epidemic of Covid – if that’s what it is, and not simply a “casedemic” – and that other factors such as population immunity are more important. The lack of a second surge in London, hit hard in spring, is also telling.

Pondering

Within days 85% of Canadians did not support bill C 51. That's why Trudeau promised to change it even as he voted in favor. 

If a leaky boat has five holes fixing one of them won't keep the boat afloat. ALL of the countries that have been successful have had lockdowns. 

Canada's problem isn't lockdowns it is the opposite because we are not trying to stop the spread, only slow it down.  Provinces are saying okay, no social events, not even in your own home, but everybody can still go to work and school. People are rightfully deciding that if they can go to school and work they can also see friends and family. 

I knew from the beginning it was a ridiculous message. 

At this point we should be telling people in advance that we will have to do a full shutdown starting next week in order to reopen just before Christmas. For Chistmas/New Year's we will fully reopen  for events personal and public for up to 500 people. Immediately following New Years we will go back into semi-lockdown while waiting for the results from opening up for the holidays. Many businesses make a huge portion of their yearly income during Christmas.

Aristotleded24

Pondering wrote:
If a leaky boat has five holes fixing one of them won't keep the boat afloat. ALL of the countries that have been successful have had lockdowns.

That is absolutely not true. There are many geographic factors that influence the success or failure of a country in the covid pandemic, and many of these "success stories" turned out to not be after all. If you look at the Worldometers page, you will see that Sweden did better in deaths per million than Peru, Spain, France, the UK, and Italy, all of which did lock down. Look further at Belarus. They never locked down, even went ahead with a big parade in May, and only once did they record a daily death toll in the double digits.

Pondering wrote:
Provinces are saying okay, no social events, not even in your own home, but everybody can still go to work and school. People are rightfully deciding that if they can go to school and work they can also see friends and family.

As people should. What's the point in surviving the coronavirus if doing so means you have to give up everything that makes your life worth living?

Pondering wrote:
At this point we should be telling people in advance that we will have to do a full shutdown starting next week in order to reopen just before Christmas. For Chistmas/New Year's we will fully reopen  for events personal and public for up to 500 people. Immediately following New Years we will go back into semi-lockdown while waiting for the results from opening up for the holidays. Many businesses make a huge portion of their yearly income during Christmas.

They have no inteniton of allowing things to be open for Christmas. They are dangling that carrot in front of us to get us to agree to more lockdowns. It is a basic emotional blackmail technique Susan Forward identified that is known as tantalizing. The blackmailer gains compliance by promising a vague reward for a target complying with a demand the target does not want to comply with, only for the reward to be removed and kicked further down the road as the time for the reward approaches. We were initially told that things would be closed for 3 weeks. When it became obvious towards the end that they would stay closed, people should have clued in and started asking questions, not blindly going along.

Aristotleded24

The British Medical Journal calls out supression of science:

Quote:

Science is being suppressed for political and financial gain. Covid-19 has unleashed state corruption on a grand scale, and it is harmful to public health.1 Politicians and industry are responsible for this opportunistic embezzlement. So too are scientists and health experts. The pandemic has revealed how the medical-political complex can be manipulated in an emergency—a time when it is even more important to safeguard science.

The UK’s pandemic response provides at least four examples of suppression of science or scientists. First, the membership, research, and deliberations of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) were initially secret until a press leak forced transparency.2 The leak revealed inappropriate involvement of government advisers in SAGE, while exposing under-representation from public health, clinical care, women, and ethnic minorities. Indeed, the government was also recently ordered to release a 2016 report on deficiencies in pandemic preparedness, Operation Cygnus, following a verdict from the Information Commissioner’s Office.34

...

Politicians often claim to follow the science, but that is a misleading oversimplification. Science is rarely absolute. It rarely applies to every setting or every population. It doesn’t make sense to slavishly follow science or evidence. A better approach is for politicians, the publicly appointed decision makers, to be informed and guided by science when they decide policy for their public. But even that approach retains public and professional trust only if science is available for scrutiny and free of political interference, and if the system is transparent and not compromised by conflicts of interest.

Suppression of science and scientists is not new or a peculiarly British phenomenon. In the US, President Trump’s government manipulated the Food and Drug Administration to hastily approve unproved drugs such as hydroxychloroquine and remdesivir.15 Globally, people, policies, and procurement are being corrupted by political and commercial agendas.16

The UK’s pandemic response relies too heavily on scientists and other government appointees with worrying competing interests, including shareholdings in companies that manufacture covid-19 diagnostic tests, treatments, and vaccines.17 Government appointees are able to ignore or cherry pick science—another form of misuse—and indulge in anti-competitive practices that favour their own products and those of friends and associates.18

Aristotleded24

Should grandparents be separated from their grandchildren on safety grounds?

Quote:

Grandparenting can relieve stress, improve socialization, encourage physical activity and even boost longevity. In one analysis, researchers examined data from more than 500 people ages 70 and older, who took part in the Berlin Aging Study. They found that seniors who provided some care, whether for their grandchildren or others, had a lower risk of death over a 20-year period than those who did not help others. (Grandparents who were primary caregivers for grandchildren were not included in the study.)

Caregiving not only provides physical and emotional rewards but also improves cognitive stimulation, according to Ronan Factora, M.D., a geriatrician at Cleveland Clinic who was not involved in the study.

As Lisa Esposito reported in U.S. News and World Report, the emotional ties between grandparents and grandchildren can protect against depression. A Reader’s Digest article touts several other health benefits of grandparenting, such as a stronger immune system and a stronger sense of purpose.

These benefits seem to exist throughout the world. A study of European grandparents found that even after earlier life, health and socio-economic conditions were taken into account, a strong positive association was found for the long-term benefits of grandchild care and health. Interestingly, significant association was found only for grandmothers, not grandfathers. CBS News reported on an Australian study published in the journal Menopause, showing the brain health benefits of grandmothers spending time with grandchildren.

Aristotleded24

Now that we have some real world data, let's look and see how it impacts coronavirus spread. On September 25, Winnipeg was moved into the "orange" level on the pandmeic response scale:

Quote:

Manitoba’s Chief Public Health Officer says Winnipeg, along with municipalities around the city, will move to a level Orange restriction on Monday, Sept. 28, meaning masks will be mandatory in all indoor public places.

The announcement came Friday when Dr. Brent Roussin called a last-minute press conference at 1:30 p.m. He announced 54 new cases of the novel coronavirus, 44 of which are in Winnipeg.

Note that with masks mandatory indoors in Winnipeg, that is as close to a universal mask mandate as you can get to in every sense that matters.

Heightented measures went into effect on September 28. Total number of new cases in Manitoba on that date: 39

The conventional wisdom is that it takes 2 weeks for public health measures to have a noticeable impact. We saw a dramatic drop-off as of October 13, 15 days later, as follows: 124 new cases.

Okay, that's just a blip. We have far more evidence that these measures worked during this time to protect the provinces nursing homes:

Quote:

Long-term care facilities in the Winnipeg metropolitan region are all being moved to Red (Critical) under the pandemic response system.

This means any new PCH admission will remain isolated for 14 days upon arrival and there will be no new admission to a PCH with a suspected or confirmed outbreak will be paused unless the new resident is already confirmed to be COVID-19 positive.

The move comes with seven of the city’s PCHs already at the Red level, including Parkview Place, which has a total of 89 cases, including 67 residents.

That's odd. We were told that restrictions would protect people, and yet the virus is still moving around.

Fast forward to October 30, when health authorities announced Winnipeg going into lockdown:

Quote:

Broad shutdowns will start in Winnipeg and surrounding areas on Monday as Manitoba moves its capital area to the red, or critical, level — the highest stage of its pandemic response scale — following days of record-shattering COVID-19 case announcements.

Movie theatres, concert halls, sports facilities and restaurant dining rooms in the region will be ordered to close starting Monday, as officials struggle to control a rising tide of cases.

Elective and non-urgent surgeries and diagnostic procedures in the region will be suspended in the face of pandemic strain on the health-care system, Chief Provincial Public Health Officer Dr. Brent Roussin said on Friday.

"We were left with no choice," he said. "We have to deal with this virus and the transmission now."

The rest of Manitoba will move up to the orange, or restricted, level starting Monday, Roussin said. The order will limit gathering sizes to five and reduce capacity in public-facing businesses.

Number of new cases that day? 480

That measure took effect on November 2. Number of new cases that day: 241 Note if you follow the news releases on a daily basis, you will see that was day 3 of a steep 4 day drop in the new number of cases, far too soon for this public health measure to have an impact. Moving along with this 2-week timeline we are working with, number of new cases on November 17: 270

Wait, Manitoba is locking down and cases are still going up? We also note that the entire province went into the red zone on November 12.

Let's also look at the death count. The deadliest day for covid in Manitoba to this day? November 15, with 15 deaths

These restrictions were all much looser in the summer and early autumn. I actually started wearing masks inside the stores long before any of them required it and before the government mandated it. Yet if all of this works, why are we seeing such a high number of cases? If I were to look at a simple correlation, I could infer that social distancing actually increases the spread of coronavirus, and that if we lifted the measures numbers would fall back down.

That's just one example.  You can also look to the outbreak in Melbourne that happened earlier this year, and the data clearly shows that the lockdown had no impact on controlling the spread.

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

This is the second wave and it was predicted that it would be far worse. A more serious lockdown should have been called starting October 1st. Instead, we have the highest positivity rates in the country.

Aristotleded24

Melbourne took that exact approach, to the point that mask wearing was mandatory outside and where failure to wear one was punishable by strangulation. Cases still went up all through July, peaked, and started falling off in August. It's ture that the death count in Manitoba is very high right now, but I think that is because we had it very easy in the first wave. Nationwide, the covid fatality rate has been falling even in the face of record high numbers in other jurisdictions. As for lockdowns, all they do is give people the illusion of control over coronavirus. People who stay home feel they are safe, but in practice there are many essential workers doing the essential work that needs to be done who will be in contact with each other, so that doesn't solve the problem. Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown has even said that lockdowns in Peel won't have an impact because so much of its workforce is considered essential:

Quote:
Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown said the city is home to a disproportionately high number of essential workers in industrial settings who face a heightened risk of infection.

“In Brampton, we have the largest food-processing sector in the country and the largest transportation logistics centre in the country,” Brown said. “The fact that you’d have more COVID positivity in an area that has more factory workers, more industrial workers, more essential workers is of no surprise.”

The numbers should serve as a “wake-up call” that these workers need more support, including a federal sick benefits program that is easier to access than the current model, he said.

There’s no isolation centre in northeast Brampton to help these workers self-isolate after a positive test, even though they may live in crowded conditions, he said.

“You have people living paycheque to paycheque and the notion that they could afford to rent a hotel room for 14 days to safely isolate is too much of a stretch,” he said.

It’s unfortunate that some people are pointing fingers at Peel Region or Brampton, blaming its residents for COVID-19 spread, he said.

“If you go to a grocery store in Kingston or Timmins or Barrie you need to thank someone working at a food processing plant in Brampton,” he said. “We are critical to Canada’s supply chain.”

Furthermore, the worst care home outbreaks in Ontario and Quebec happened in the spring when everyone was staying at home and things were more closed.

People who have the luxury to stay home throughout the pandemic should certainly feel free to do so. That does not give them the right to try and control other people's behaviour to the point of restricting how many people they can have in their houses or whether they should be allowed to gather and sing.

Pondering

Lockdowns do work if they are really lockdowns. I think China is the only country in the world that had a real lockdown. The term is being used very broadly. Canada has definitely not had a single lockdown. What we have had is varying restrictions, just like Sweden has had varying restrictions. 

At this point there is no need to listen to politicians or scientists. Listen to the doctors and nurses at your local medical facilities. It isn't like at the beginning when we had no local data. 

You don't need to be a scientist to understand that a spike in infections means X days later there will be a spike in hospitalizations followed by a spike in deaths. If your local hospital is saying that they will be cancelling elective surgery within weeks that should tell you that people need alter their behavior. 

The governments from city to country are doing a terrible job of managing the pandemic and a terrible job at informing people because they are trying to manipulate us to take the risks that keep the economy going while not taking risks that are of no benefit to the economy.  

If they would be more honest with people there would be more compliance out of understanding the balance of  risk/reward and the capacity of the health care system. 

We need more and better information. We need more testing. We need more PPEs. We need basic income. 

It is far too simplistic to just lock down or not lock down. Because we are not getting sufficient information in a timely manner we have to take our cue from what the health care system in our community can handle. If it is close to capacity we should be voluntarily hunkering down not waiting for restrictions. The CDC/US recently reported that 50% of the cases of transmission are asymptomatic people.

We should all be wearing masks in public indoors and out as a matter of common sense like not going barefoot in the winter. Common sense should tell us to avoid large gatherings including in private homes. See each other in smaller groups and keep track so if there is an infection everyone can be contacted quickly. We should be using the tracking app if it is cleared by privacy watchdogs. 

Distance learning should be broadly available to all with schools opened for those it doesn't work well for either because parents are working or don't have the capacity to help for other reasons. A mix of the two should also be available. 

Until the vaccines are broadly available we will have rolling restrictions. It would work much better with an educated public. Exposure risks are on a sliding scale not just risk/no risk like a light switch. 

 

Pondering

People who have the luxury to stay home throughout the pandemic should certainly feel free to do so. That does not give them the right to try and control other people's behaviour to the point of restricting how many people they can have in their houses or whether they should be allowed to gather and sing.

"We" aren't doing that. Those are government restrictions which the majority of people support. 

The equation is very simple. X number of cases = Y number of hospitalizations. When hospitals are getting too close to capacity we have to have more restrictions. It doesn't matter whether or not it is fair. The hospitals would still get overloaded which would bring the death rate up.

It's great that the death rate is improving. It means hospitals are keeping more people alive. 

The flu is down 98% over last year and that is before many people get immunized. Covid-19 is still spreading in high numbers because it is more virulent than the flu. That is why we can't just let it run rampant. 

If people don't want to live in a community they are free to become hermits. Otherwise they must live by the communities collective decisions when it comes to public health. 

Aristotleded24

So I see that the presentation of real-world data which may suggest the measures we have taken could be ineffective isn't resonating with people. That's good to know.

Pondering

Aristotleded24 wrote:
So I see that the presentation of real-world data which may suggest the measures we have taken could be ineffective isn't resonating with people. That's good to know.

We've already heard it all and answered it all.  That cases still went up even with a mask mandate does not prove that masks don't work. Masks lower the risk they are not 100%.  So, transmision still occurs and can rise. They just won't rise as fast as they would have without masks. 

The precautions we have been taking for Covid-19 has stopped the flu in its tracks. 

There is no real world data proving masks are ineffective because they are effective. Why do you think nurses and doctors and surgeons wear masks ?  It is because they work. 

Aristotleded24

Doctors and nurses wear masks to stop transmission of dangerous microbes, and masks do work in those particular settings. That is completely different than when people are wearing masks everywhere and covid is still moving around, moreso than when there were fewer masks in the summer.

kropotkin1951

Pondering wrote:

Lockdowns do work if they are really lockdowns. I think China is the only country in the world that had a real lockdown.

You should probably do a little more reading. As a CBC listener and person inside the NATO propaganda bubble that is a reasonable impression but it is not factual. Here is a starting point for looking at lockdowns globally.

The pandemic has resulted in the largest number of shutdowns/lockdowns worldwide at the same time in history. By 26 March, 1.7 billion people worldwide were under some form of lockdown,[239] which increased to 3.9 billion people by the first week of April – more than half of the world's population.[240][241]

Restrictions first began in China,[242] with other countries in East Asia like Vietnam soon following it in implementing widespread containment measures. Much of Europe, North America and Africa took much longer to bring in tough measures. Lockdowns between and within nations are of varying stringency.[243]

By mid April, nearly 300 million people, or about 90 per cent of the population, were under some form of lockdown in the United States,[244] around 100 million in the Philippines,[245] about 59 million in South Africa,[246] and 1.3 billion were under lockdown in India; the largest of all lockdowns. Check the list of COVID-19 Hotspots or containment Zones of India.[247][248]

By the end of April, around 300 million people were under lockdown in various countries of Europe, including but not limited to Italy, Spain, France, and the United Kingdom; while around 200 million people were under lockdown in Latin America.[245]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_lockdowns#Countries_and_...

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