Manitoba Political Polls

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Manitoba Political Polls

A new Probe Research poll finds the Cons have dropped 5% since the September election from 47% to 42% while the NDP has gained 5% to 36%. 

Manitoba’s New Democrats are out of the political wilderness, a recent Probe Research poll has found. Three months after the Progressive Conservatives were re-elected, the NDP’s support has increased five per cent.

"This is a party that is slowly clawing itself back, into maybe not the hearts of people, but at least into their consideration," said Scott MacKay, Probe’s founder. "If they’re able to keep going in this, they will be a very serious contender in the next provincial election." ...

The Progressive Conservatives remain Manitobans’ most popular choice, with 42 per cent support from respondents, compared with the 47 per cent of votes they garnered in the Sept. 10 election. Their base tends to be older, male, white and rural.

The NDP’s support has increased to 36 per cent. The party draws support from women (42 per cent compared with one-third for the PCs), millennials and people who have a post-secondary degree. ...

"We have a party that is certainly not waiting in the wings, but one that you could imagine regaining power someday," said MacKay. "There was not this generational shunning that many people had predicted in 2016," he said, referring to when the PCs ended the NDP’s 17-year reign.

The poll put the Liberals and Greens at 13 and six per cent respectively; any change in either party’s support was within the poll’s margin of error. "The Liberals are just in suspended animation," MacKay said.

The movement of each of the four parties was similar in and out of Winnipeg. ...

Kelly Saunders, a political scientist at Brandon University, said the New Democrats have kept support from women, despite the PCs’ constant references during the fall campaign, to NDP Leader Wab Kinew being charged with domestic assault more than a decade ago.

Women tend to vote slightly more than men and are persuaded on issues such as climate change or civil and reproductive rights, she said.

"Looking at these numbers, the NDP has a good foundation on which to build, especially if they can really carve out their messaging," she said, noting they could "steal the thunder" from the stagnant Liberals and Greens. "The Tories are going to have a much harder time in trying to appeal to those messages; their track record hasn’t been very good," she said.

Saunders said she suspected those themes could loom large in a PC leadership race if Premier Brian Pallister were to step down. He has not given any indication of when he plans to retire.

MacKay noted that while the NDP gained traction with households that earn less than $50,000 annually, Manitobans who don’t have post-secondary education side heavily with the PCs. Normally, voters in both those categories support the same party.


laine lowe laine lowe's picture

I sure hope that holds.


With the absolute gutting of the provincial treasury happening right now, along with the fact that each party elected in the Ledge is on board with massive human rights and civil liberties violations, whether or not the PCs lose the next election is irrelevant as far as the quality of life for the average Manitoban.


I'm sure the Let's Do As Little About Covid As is Possible Because it's Too Much of a Bother Party of Manitoba will win the next election by a landslide. 


JKR wrote:
I'm sure the Let's Do As Little About Covid As is Possible Because it's Too Much of a Bother Party of Manitoba will win the next election by a landslide.

No such party exists, and I'm going to call you out for constructing a straw-man of my position on the covid pandemic and for the possible inability to comprehend the nature and substance of my position on the matter.


Why have all the political parties in Manitoba been opposed to your position on the Covid Pandemic?


A new Angus Reid poll shows the NDP at 42% with a slight lead over the PCs at 39%, as Pallister scores low in the polls with the Liberals far back at 11%. 

Brian Pallister 

In Manitoba, Premier Brian Pallister also struggles to engender much positive feeling among his constituents. While his drop in approval is not as heavy as Ford’s or Kenney’s, he is off three points since March. The province met with its third wave of COVID-19 later than others and continues to have tighter restrictions than many other provinces, though cases are on a steep decline.

The provincial government did allow an exception to have approximately 500 health-care workers attend two Winnipeg Jets home games in their second round playoff series against the Montreal Canadiens. Unfortunately for Pallister, his province’s team was quickly swept out of the playoffs. His approval rating is second worst in the country, at just 33 per cent.

The Manitoba government too earns poor marks for its handling of various issues in the province, lowlighted by just 28 per cent saying Pallister and his team have done a good job in handling COVID-19, the fewest in any province.


Slight lead for Manitoba NDP

Current vote intention reflects the dissatisfaction with Pallister’s performance. The Manitoba NDP holds a three-point advantage over the governing Progressive Conservatives.



I think the PC's will most likely be replacing Pallister before the next election. Who is the likeliest replacement?


Heather Stefanson might be a likely candiate. Her father served in former PC Premier Gary Filmon's Cabinet, so that name has some sway. They might elect her to replace Pallister to brag about having the first woman Premier of the province in order for her to take the fall in the next election, kind of like Kim Campbell. Or maybe they will select someone who can be placeholder, knowing they are about to lose, and then they can make a serious selection for who they want their new leader to be.


A Probe Research poll released on June 11th found:

NDP 47%

PC 29%

Libs 14%

Greens 5%

Provincial party support by area of Winnipeg

NDP has a 2-to-1 lead over the Tories in the battleground suburbs



  • NDP: 59%

  • PC: 26%

  • Liberal: 10%

  • Green: 4%

CORE (n=111)

  • NDP: 66%

  • Liberal: 14%

  • PC: 14%

  • Green: 8%



  • NDP: 55%

  • PC: 21%

  • Liberal: 15%

  • Green: 6%



  • NDP: 50%

  • PC: 23%

  • Liberal: 20%

  • Green: 4%


  • NDP: 47%

  • PC: 26%

  • Liberal: 19%

  • Green: 6%

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

Wow, those are impressive numbers for the NDP. That's great news for Wab.


Great news, to bad it is years away from an election.

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

I have a hard time believing Pallister can regain ground. As for any cabinet MLA waiting in the aisles with knives for his back (ie. forced early retirement), I can't think of any that can regain ground. Perhaps Clark who just resigned as Minister of Indigenous Affairs but it still may be a long shot.


Apparently Pallister has a whole slew of racists to draw upon to fill the resigning Minister's position.

Just minutes after he was sworn in, Manitoba's new minister of Indigenous reconciliation and northern relations was directly challenged in the legislative building after he said those who ran residential schools believed "they were doing the right thing."

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

Yup. Pallister is a piece of work. He also refuses to acknowledge that at least two members of his Cabinet refuse to get vaccinated plus some of his caucus and Cabinet are members of the Spring Church that consistently flouted the COVID-19 restrictions.