Manitoba Provincial Election 2019

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Aristotleded24

Left Turn wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Stockholm wrote:
Keep in mind that the Manitoba NDP already has all four seats in northern Manitoba (two of which were gains) and they came surprisingly close in Dauphin and they have a history of winning the odd other non-Wpg seat such as Brandon East or Gimli or Selkirk (though the latter is now practically an exurb of Winnipeg).

You're correct that the NDP has history in these areas. If this trend continues, the NDP era in these areas may also be "history." The NDP in Saskatchewan also has history in places like The Battlefords and Yorkton. How are those cities looking for the NDP these days?

Has the Manitoba NDP done anything comparable to the Saskatchewant NDP's decision in the 90s to close 75 hospitals? That decision went a long way to making the NDP unelectable outside of Saskatoon and Regina.

Smaller communities in Manitoba have had an ongoing challenge recruiting and retaining health professionals, as is the case in many smaller areas.

Stockholm

A wrote:

Even then redistribution will hurt the NDP in the long term. On current population trends, the 4 northern seats will be reduced to 3. Within Winnipeg, left-leaning urban areas are going to be combined into fewer areas, whereas right-leaning suburban areas are going to be cut into more areas.

So then you agree, the NDP would be well-advised to win back rural areas so as to not give the Saskatchewan branch of the Conservative Party a permanent hold on power in that province?

Two points:

A. You are taking a bit of a simplistic view of the impact of redistribution and longterm trends and evolutions. Yes, new seats get created further from the city centre - but some newer areas are more upscale and some are more downscale. Also, areas evolve. For example all through the 70s, 80s and 90s, Assiniboia was considered a rock-ribbed conservative suburban Winnipeg seat. Then it shocking went NDP by 3 votes in 1999 and became a safe NDP seat until 2016 and was almost won back last week. Seems that over time that area of Winnipeg lost its lustre and what were considered nice new homes in the 70s and are considered kinda downscale. If you had looked at a map of the Toronto area you would have thought that the NDP would never be able to compete anywhere in 905 and Brampton was considered a totally Conservative WASP suburb that was Bill Davis's old bailiwick. Now Brampton is overwhelmingly South Asian and Black and the Ontario NDP won 3 out of 5 seats there and just missed getting a fourth one... Also, more and more people are moving to city centres these days so i would not assume that any inner city Winnipeg seats will be eliminated anytime soon. Last week the NDP came quite close in suburban seats like McPhillips, Rossmere, Southdale, Radisson and Assiniboia. I would put a much bigger priority on winning those in 2023 than i would on trying to win Riding Mountain or La Verendrye...

B. Of course the Saskatchewan NDP needs to target some rural seats - particularly those that are further north and have large FN populations - but realistically, it has been a megatrend throughout the western world that rural areas are swing to the far right and suburban areas are swinging more centre left. Its likely a lost cause to spend vast resources trying to win totally rural seats in Saskatchewan where the voters who have not moved away are largely older and white and largely voting on "cultural issues" like opposition to immigration, hatred of Indigenous people and wanting to hold on to their guns...and wanting to believe that environmentalists who care about climate change are the enemy.  A lot of people on the left have these fanciful notions that you can recreate the political culture of the 1930s when farmers were voting for farmer-labour parties...I'm not sure those days are ever coming back

Misfit Misfit's picture

Grant Devine went on a massive spending spree where he built way too many brand new hospitals in rural communities, and in communities that didn’t need them. It was considered a mismanagement of priorities. These were expensive expenditures and they were extremely expensive to maintain. We had enough rural hospitals in Saskatchewan before Grant Devine was elected and they were all well maintained by the NDP.

Milden certainly didn’t need a hospital. It is a very small community as referenced in that article that is sandwiched between Outlook and Rosetown both of which have hospitals.

Grant Devibe built brand new hospitals in constituencies that elected PC candidates. Rural communities under NDP MLA’s did not receive any new hospitals.

And...the NDP shut down only three of the 53 hospitals in question. So your argument that the NDP slashed and burned hospitals is quite spurious indeed.

 

 

 

 

 

The Analyst The Analyst's picture

Stockholm wrote:

 Last week the NDP came quite close in suburban seats like McPhillips, Rossmere, Southdale, Radisson and Assiniboia.

 

I think Southdale deserves some special attention. Due to redistribution, some of the more affluent southern parts of the riding were removed. Meanwhile, the working class neighbourhood of Windsor Park was mostly included in Southdale and removed from Radisson.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Misfit wrote:

Grant Devine went on a massive spending spree where he built way too many brand new hospitals in rural communities, and in communities that didn’t need them. It was considered a mismanagement of priorities. These were expensive expenditures and they were extremely expensive to maintain. We had enough rural hospitals in Saskatchewan before Grant Devine was elected and they were all well maintained by the NDP.

Milden certainly didn’t need a hospital. It is a very small community as referenced in that article that is sandwiched between Outlook and Rosetown both of which have hospitals.

Grant Devibe built brand new hospitals in constituencies that elected PC candidates. Rural communities under NDP MLA’s did not receive any new hospitals.

And...the NDP shut down only three of the 53 hospitals in question. So your argument that the NDP slashed and burned hospitals is quite spurious indeed.

Gee...it's almost as if...no, that can't be, that's crazy talk...it's almost as if the Devine government deliberately bankrupted Saskatchewan building small-town hospitals nobody needed, and deliberately drove up the provincial debt by blowing money on unnecessary projects, just to FORCE the NDP government Devine knew would replace him at some point to be "the bad guys" and make massive cuts in everything.

Nah...that couldn't be it...nothing like that ever happens in politics...

jerrym

Ken Burch wrote:

Misfit wrote:

Grant Devine went on a massive spending spree where he built way too many brand new hospitals in rural communities, and in communities that didn’t need them. It was considered a mismanagement of priorities. These were expensive expenditures and they were extremely expensive to maintain. We had enough rural hospitals in Saskatchewan before Grant Devine was elected and they were all well maintained by the NDP.

Milden certainly didn’t need a hospital. It is a very small community as referenced in that article that is sandwiched between Outlook and Rosetown both of which have hospitals.

Grant Devibe built brand new hospitals in constituencies that elected PC candidates. Rural communities under NDP MLA’s did not receive any new hospitals.

And...the NDP shut down only three of the 53 hospitals in question. So your argument that the NDP slashed and burned hospitals is quite spurious indeed.

Gee...it's almost as if...no, that can't be, that's crazy talk...it's almost as if the Devine government deliberately bankrupted Saskatchewan building small-town hospitals nobody needed just, and deliberately drove up the provincial debt by blowing money on unnecessary projects, just to FORCE the NDP government Devine new would replace him at some point to be "the bad guys" and make massive cuts in everything.

Nah...that couldn't be it...nothing like that ever happens in politics...

I guess it's pure coincidence that conservatives scream blue murder about the national debt when the left win, after they have blown a massive hole in the budget through tax cuts because they are so concerned about the financial burden they are leaving our children.

Strange how conservative parties around the world never get concerned about the apocalyptic global conditions they are appear willing to leave our children because of their inaction on global warming and climate change denial.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

Misfit wrote:

Grant Devine went on a massive spending spree where he built way too many brand new hospitals in rural communities, and in communities that didn’t need them. It was considered a mismanagement of priorities. These were expensive expenditures and they were extremely expensive to maintain. We had enough rural hospitals in Saskatchewan before Grant Devine was elected and they were all well maintained by the NDP.

Milden certainly didn’t need a hospital. It is a very small community as referenced in that article that is sandwiched between Outlook and Rosetown both of which have hospitals.

Grant Devibe built brand new hospitals in constituencies that elected PC candidates. Rural communities under NDP MLA’s did not receive any new hospitals.

And...the NDP shut down only three of the 53 hospitals in question. So your argument that the NDP slashed and burned hospitals is quite spurious indeed.

Gee...it's almost as if...no, that can't be, that's crazy talk...it's almost as if the Devine government deliberately bankrupted Saskatchewan building small-town hospitals nobody needed just, and deliberately drove up the provincial debt by blowing money on unnecessary projects, just to FORCE the NDP government Devine new would replace him at some point to be "the bad guys" and make massive cuts in everything.

Nah...that couldn't be it...nothing like that ever happens in politics...

And wasn’t it damned lucky that rural  NDP constituencies didn’t need any hospital infrastructure projects.

Aristotleded24

Stockholm wrote:

A wrote:

Even then redistribution will hurt the NDP in the long term. On current population trends, the 4 northern seats will be reduced to 3. Within Winnipeg, left-leaning urban areas are going to be combined into fewer areas, whereas right-leaning suburban areas are going to be cut into more areas.

So then you agree, the NDP would be well-advised to win back rural areas so as to not give the Saskatchewan branch of the Conservative Party a permanent hold on power in that province?

Two points:

A. You are taking a bit of a simplistic view of the impact of redistribution and longterm trends and evolutions. Yes, new seats get created further from the city centre - but some newer areas are more upscale and some are more downscale. Also, areas evolve. For example all through the 70s, 80s and 90s, Assiniboia was considered a rock-ribbed conservative suburban Winnipeg seat. Then it shocking went NDP by 3 votes in 1999 and became a safe NDP seat until 2016 and was almost won back last week. Seems that over time that area of Winnipeg lost its lustre and what were considered nice new homes in the 70s and are considered kinda downscale. If you had looked at a map of the Toronto area you would have thought that the NDP would never be able to compete anywhere in 905 and Brampton was considered a totally Conservative WASP suburb that was Bill Davis's old bailiwick. Now Brampton is overwhelmingly South Asian and Black and the Ontario NDP won 3 out of 5 seats there and just missed getting a fourth one... Also, more and more people are moving to city centres these days so i would not assume that any inner city Winnipeg seats will be eliminated anytime soon. Last week the NDP came quite close in suburban seats like McPhillips, Rossmere, Southdale, Radisson and Assiniboia. I would put a much bigger priority on winning those in 2023 than i would on trying to win Riding Mountain or La Verendrye...

B. Of course the Saskatchewan NDP needs to target some rural seats - particularly those that are further north and have large FN populations - but realistically, it has been a megatrend throughout the western world that rural areas are swing to the far right and suburban areas are swinging more centre left. Its likely a lost cause to spend vast resources trying to win totally rural seats in Saskatchewan where the voters who have not moved away are largely older and white and largely voting on "cultural issues" like opposition to immigration, hatred of Indigenous people and wanting to hold on to their guns...and wanting to believe that environmentalists who care about climate change are the enemy.  A lot of people on the left have these fanciful notions that you can recreate the political culture of the 1930s when farmers were voting for farmer-labour parties...I'm not sure those days are ever coming back

We don't have time to wait for redistribution to give more favourable results for NDP candidates, and that is a lazy approach anyways. Even if you assume that more people will move to the inner cities (Winnipeg's inner city is being hollowed out as the suburbs and exurban communities grow, and I would not count on that trend reversing itself) if they are in a higher income bracket, they may not support the NDP, so that is one demographic trend that would not be in the NDP's favour. As for the rest of your post, you show utter ignorance. Laverendre has until recently swung back and forth between the NDP and the PCs. This was until redistribution carved out the area around Ste. Anne into Dawson Trail, which Ron Lemieux held for the NDP until he stepped down. There is a sizeable French-speaking population, so on that basis it is winnable for the NDP. You also said that in Saskatchewan the NDP should focus on rural areas with a First Nations population but are not specific. Misfit, on the other hand, outlined specific areas in Saskatchewan that will provide a path to victory for the NDP. As for the collapse of the left in rural areas? A large part of that is the collapse of the family farm and the presence of big agriculture. This creates an economically depressed area with bitterness which the right-wing very adeptly exploits. The one opening for the NDP is that there are younger, organic farmers coming up in these areas. If the NDP doesn't attempt to court this demographic, the Greens will, and at some point will (figuratively and literally) eat the NDP's lunch here.

Finally, the BC NDP did follow your advice. As rural support for the NDP was crumbling, the NDP built a platform that focussed on the needs of urban residents. As a result, they did very well. Unfortunately, in spite of the unpopoularity of the former Liberal government, they needed the Greens to help them stay in government, and even that coalition is barely holding on. This pipe dream about "cities are the future" is just that, a pipe dream. As the Saskatchewan NDP knows full well, and the BC NDP just learned, the cities are not enough to take you to victory.

nicky

The process Stockholm describes has been recognized in some American electoral studies. Years ago the Democrats dominated the inner cities and the Republicans dominated the suburbs. As populations grew new suburbs emerged on the periphery of the cities and the Republicans tended to win there as their traditional demographic groups took root there.

At the same time demographic changes shifted the former Republican areas to the Democrats. These areas are called “Exurbs” in some voting studies, for ex-suburbs.

Similar trends are identifiable in Canada, particularly the GTA.

This is not to say that the NDP shd abandon rural seats but the party needs to recognize that long term trends there are against them. Some new strategy is obviously necessary to be competitive there. I cannot presume to identify such a strategy myself.

jerrym

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Putting aside that the NDP actually gained seats at PC expense, this election result was a trainwreck. If the current seat count stays the same, that means there are 36 seats for the PCs. This is one seat shy of the highest number of seats the NDP ever won. Make no mistake about it folks, Pallister has a clear mandate to proceed. It's true that racism did play a role in this election result, and it is unfortunate. If someone wants to be racist and vote accordingly, that is not within the NDP's control. Here are the things that were:

1) Baisc vetting and screening of all party candidates is important. This means asking the basic question, "do you have any criminal records and/or criminal charges that you haven't told us about?" If the answer to this question is yes, you have a problem, especially if the charge is something like domestic assault.

2) Health care as the number one issue. Excuse me? Health care unions always side with the NDP in any given election. That they tried to elect an NDP government today is not newsworthy and is not particularly persuasive. Not only that, but the health care system that the NDP handed over to Pallister 3 years ago was not all sunshine and roses. The number one issue should have been crime and public safety. ...

3) Nothing of significance changed since 2016. The NDP did a tour where they pretended to listen to the membership. We knew it would be hard work to fight against Pallister. 

4) Union bosses have too much sway within the NDP, and their influence needs to be curtailed. 

5) The NDP has for a long time relied on mediocrity, and doing just enough so that when its base complained that it wasn't enough, responded by saying how much worse things would be under the PCs. That's fine in a close race where you control the purse strings. It's not fine when you are a clear second place and other parties are completing on your turf. Let's take a look at some promises.

Looking at it from outside Manitoba, I agree that the Manitoba NDP appears to have major problems that need to be corrected but I do not consider this election a train wreck. Kinew came across fairly well on TV, they were able to increase their vote share and seat count but, IMO, there are problems going ahead. After all, I believe with one exception, Manitobans have always re-elected a first term government. The NDP were able to stave off Liberal and Green challenges on an election date chosen to minimize voter involvement by placing it just after the summer holidays, when most voters are not paying attention and least likely to pick up on the ruling party's problems. 

Having said that, just because allegations of domestic violence did not create a major bombblast this time, does not mean it couldn't happen in future campaigns, whether merited or not. Just ask Hilary Clinton about that. 

From the outside of the province, it seems like there is a complacency within the NDP leadership that minor reforms in party operations and policies are all that is needed. This opens the NDP up to the possibility of a Liberal or Green effective, broadbased set of reform policies under a charismatic leader, if one or both of these parties can get their acts together and find the right campaign leader. Note that this does not mean that a winning campaign by one of them means they will be an effective government sincerely introducing the reforms it promised. Witness the Trudeau government. 

The party needs to broaden its campaign beyond a tight focus on health care or there is the danger of their being viewed primarily as a one issue party. In addition to public safety, they need an increased focus on affordability, especially housing, education, the environment including public transportation, and improving the lives of indigenous people who represent an ever-growing percentage of the population. 

They need to travel around the province listening to not just party members but people in general, starting to build a base even where their base is minimal. 

They also need to base their attacks on the Conservatives in general and not just Pallister. I would not be surprised if he resigns a little before the next election, having proved he could win a healthy re-election victory, especially if things go further south in terms of his personal popularity, to be replaced by a "reform" Con, a la Brad Wall being replaced by Scott Moe, enabling a Saskatchewan Party to rise in popularity. Pallister could retire to spend many more months on holiday in Costa Rica without any of the problems of governing, confident that corporate Canada would reward him handsomely in one way or another for doing their work. 

Do I expect the NDP to do this? It's possible, but much more likely that the complacency of having done better than the previous election and the desire of people in power in virtually all organizations to keep tight control will more likely lead them to mainly continue on the same path they did in this election with minor reforms. 

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