Is or will Manitoba having the highest active Covid cases per capita affect political popularity?

66 posts / 0 new
Last post
Aristotleded24

Even though masks don't seem to work, we don't have much choice in Manitoba. Winnipeg has been under an indoor mask mandate since September 28, and I see many people even wearing masks while outside.

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

We haven't closed borders since April and people can still go to their workplace in Manitoba. It's only advised that your don't travel or go to work. I don't find the current Manitoban restrictions Draconian - far from it. They should have been stricter far earlier.

Aristotleded24

Laine, it is effectively against the law for anyone to have people over in their private resideinces except for very limited cicrumstances. How is that not draconian? If you want to stay home throughout the pandemic and you have the means to do so, that is one thing. I am utterly shocked that you are willing to have a government exert so much control over the movement of priavte citizens in the name of stopping the pandemic. How strict should it go? Should all workplaces be shut down? Should we declare martial law, only permit people to leave their residences a certain time for certain essentials, and throw them in jail if they violate that? Should we mandate masks outside and have cops choke people who don't comply? I get it that you are scared of coivd, but I'm not sure you are fully thinking through the implications of the measures I hear you advocating.

Need I also point out that the worst impacts from people dying from covid and the worst covid spread in the provinve happened while the strictest social distancing measures were in place? I'll say it again: lockdowns do not make any material difference in covid spread and covid mortality. If they did, Belgium would not have experienced the greatest number of covid deaths per capita. The only thing lockdowns do is give certain, more priviledged sectors of society the illusion that there is no risk. There are so many "essential workers" out and about moving around (and remember that the virus needs people to spread) that any attempt to suppress the spread is a moot point anyways.

This goes to the very core of the role of government, especially if you believe the role of government is to empower citizens. How is it empowering citizens to gut their health care systems and then tell them they have to give up everything that is meaningful to them in order to survive? At a time when we need their help the most, the medical establishment is effectively throwing up its hands and saying, "we can't help you, you're on your own."

Aristotleded24

Meanwhile, Pallister continues to be himself:

Quote:
Manitoba's premier is facing backlash from Indigenous leaders for comments criticizing Ottawa's planning for COVID-19 vaccine distribution among First Nations.

"Instead of uniting Manitobans during a health crisis, Brian Pallister is purposefully sowing seeds of division and hate," Southern Chiefs' Organization Grand Chief Jerry Daniels said Friday.

Pallister criticized the federal government's national vaccine rollout strategy during a news conference Thursday.

The Progressive Conservative premier said Ottawa has plans to distribute the vaccine on a per-capita basis.

"They are also telling us that they are going to hold back the portion of our vaccine for Manitoba that they would then allocate to Indigenous and First Nations communities," Pallister said.

"What that would mean than is Manitobans who do not live in northern Indigenous communities would be the least likely to get a vaccine in the country."

Manitoba has the highest percentage of Indigenous people in its population of all the provinces. The premier said the results would be unfair.

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

The Premier is a racist ass. First he claimed that southern Manitobans would be rushing to northern First Nation reserves to try to get vaccines and making the spread of COVID-19 worse. He has no idea of how strictly most First Nations across the country are enforcing pandemic controls - they monitor entry into the community and have far stricter restrictions than we have in Winnipeg. The number of vaccines available would be equal to the membership list they have and they would dispense them accordingly. Sadly, the virus has entered into these communities because of members travelling outside to seek health care or travelling/gathering to attend funerals.

He then follows up with that stupid per capita statement that is so full of shit. Status members of First Nations are a federal responsibility and their numbers would not impact the allowances of vaccines based on Manitoba's population. He really is reprehensible.

As for not being able to entertain in one's home, congregate around the water cooler at work, or attend religious/sports/entertainment events - I would rather see all those restrictions in place so as to reduce infections than to continue down a haphazard path where people inadvertantly infect each other and it mushrooms to huge numbers in a matter of weeks. These restrictions are not that draconian in the scheme of things. You can still go out to get groceries etc, go for drives and walks and hang around in parks and neighbourhood corners as long as you maintain social distancing precautions and certainly masks for indoor places.

Aristotleded24

laine lowe wrote:
As for not being able to entertain in one's home, congregate around the water cooler at work, or attend religious/sports/entertainment events - I would rather see all those restrictions in place so as to reduce infections than to continue down a haphazard path where people inadvertantly infect each other and it mushrooms to huge numbers in a matter of weeks.

That scenario was definitely played up on the news media as being an iminent danger, and social media algorithms that pushed stories about the coronavirus as it generated veiws certainly primed people to be deathly afraid of the coronavirus by the time the pandemic was declared official in March. The truth is, outside of a few hotspots that had their own problems, that was never a realistic scenario. The whole shutdowns were also based on modelling by Neil Ferguson of Imperial College in London which dramatically over-stated the number of potential infections. It was also based on the assumption that nobody had any prior immunity to covid. Other scientists who suggested that immunity was more widespread in the population and came up with models that were not so disasterous were ignored. Furthermore, experts warned in the spring that a spike in cases was inevitable, and that the problem with locking down is that the virus would come back. Well, here we are, at the worst time of year to increase respiratory infections. I thought the point of locking down in the spring was to figure things out and put a plan in place. I was expecting it to be 3 weeks, however things remained closed for longer. Many things also still haven't opened. Now the most recent measures came in, and they are talking about extending them beyond the original November 11 date? I say no to that. I feel like I've been played on this front. I say no more lockdowns, no more social distancing, and instead come up with an actual plan that protects people most at risk for covid.

By the way, the logic in that post is the same logic behind so-called "proactive policing." Better to have cops pull people off the streets before they have a chance to hurt people, some will say.

laine lowe wrote:
These restrictions are not that draconian in the scheme of things. You can still go out to get groceries etc, go for drives and walks and hang around in parks and neighbourhood corners as long as you maintain social distancing precautions and certainly masks for indoor places.

They may not feel draconian to you, but different people have different perceptions. You're correct about what you can do. However in my case I own a car and I don't have any physical disabilities. I was talking to someone I worked with a couple of months ago. She told me that she used to get exercise at work, but since she was laid off, she is too afraid to go for daily walks because of the neighbourhood she lives in. Should she just accept that the rules are not that draconian? What about someone who has a physical disability that their gym can accomodate for exercise? Should we tell that person that the rules are not that draconian? What if someone has a terminally ill relative at such an advanced stage of the disease that this will be that relative's last Christmas? Is not visiting that relative in person really protecting them? That's the problem with these broad measures is they don't take into account these different situations, and Dr. Roussin has been particularly intransigent when any affected industry or business objects to the social distancing requirements.

As for restrictions? I haven't been inside a church since March. I cannot volunteer at agencies that I would have loved to. I don't have opportunities to go out and find people to socialize with as people are told to stay within their bubbles. These are things that are very important to people. If in high school I heard about a country where people live like we are now, I would feel sorry for them and think they don't live in a free country. There are other things in life that matter besides the coronavirus, and for the most part, public health strategies are not taking that into effect.

jerrym

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Overall, it has been the City of Winnipeg, First Nations communities, and a few people connected to Maple Leaf in Brandon who have borne the brunt of the pandemic, and since Pallister never had much support among those groups, I doubt this will really make or break his popularity.

 

Whether its having the worst Covid-19 active infection rate in the country (Ontario 89 active cases per 100,000; Quebec 128 active cases per 100,000; BC 165 active cases per 100,000; Saskatchewan 249 active cases per 100,000; Alberta 305 active cases per 100,000; Manitoba 634 active cases per 100,000 (https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2020/11/25/ontarios-response...) and/or his lockdown process, Pallister now has the worst popularity among premiers in Canada. I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls a Brad Wall and leaves before the next election while the PC party hopes a new leader changes their fortunes. 

The Angus Reid survey results released Tuesday show Pallister’s approval rating sitting at 32 per cent, eight points back from the second-worst performing premier, Jason Kenney of Alberta. ...

It’s the worst polling performance Pallister has had since being elected in 2016. ...

The online survey polled 5,003 Canadian adults, including 499 Manitobans, between Nov. 24 and 30.

Results for other Canadian premiers besides Pallister and Kenney ranged from 64 and 53 per cent, with British Columbia Premier John Horgan and Quebec Premier Francois Legault tying for the top spot.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7495424/premier-brian-pallister-poll-rating/

jerrym

The failure of the Pallister government to deal effectively with Covid-19 has left it with the poorest ranking in terms of the disease in the country, with only Alberta's Kenney government in the same ballpark in terms of rankings, who like Pallister failed to take preventive measures until too late. 

http://angusreid.org/provincial-spotlight-economy-covid19/

More Key Findings:

  • There are only three provinces where a majority of residents say the government is doing a “good job” on health care – B.C., Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador.
  • As their constituents grow more critical throughout the pandemic, both Alberta’s United Conservative Party and Manitoba’s Progressive Conservative Party find themselves tied with their opposition parties in vote intention.

Aristotleded24

laine lowe wrote:
The Premier is a racist ass.

He continues to prove that:

Quote:

Premier Brian Pallister is condemning a plan by Peguis First Nation to allow its members to have holiday gatherings, calling on its chief not to go forward with them. 

Peguis First Nation Chief Glenn Hudson said leadership is allowing some visits during "relaxed lockdown" days over the winter holidays because thus far the community's restrictions have worked and there are currently only three active cases. 

But Pallister said Tuesday afternoon he thinks the plan is a "massive mistake" and urged Hudson not to allow it to happen. 

"COVID does not discriminate, neither should we and we're not going to have two sets of rules around who gets to have Christmas and how it's celebrated this year because we're all doing our part to protect one another. We're all in this together," he said during a news conference.

"And I know that Chief Hudson is a good man and a well-meaning person, but this is a massive mistake on his part."

Family visits are an important thing this time of year, especially considering how hard it has been. I would never begrudge anyone who wanted to do so. If Peguis First Nation wants to allow that to happen, I say all the power to them. Ultimately, Chief Hudson is accountable to his community, and they should be the ones to decide how to manage the risks of covid in this context.

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

Well we know that Pallister does not respect a sovereign to sovereign relationship with Manitoba First Nations. And he has certainly butted heads on numerous occasions with the Métis Federation.

Aristotleded24

jerrym wrote:
To argue that taking precautionary measures is fruitless is to ignore what has happened immediately across Manitoba's borders. If North and South Dakota were countries, they would have the highest and third highest Cofid death rates in the world at 1,353/million and 1,164/million (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html), 4.3 and 3.7 times Canada's rate of 314.4/million. 

North Dakota logged the highest coronavirus mortality rate in the world last week, according to a new analysis from the Federation of American Scientists. South Dakota wasn’t far behind, ranked third globally. (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/north-dakota-covid-dea...)

 

South Dakota welcomed hundreds of thousands of visitors to a massive motorcycle rally this summer, declined to cancel the state fair and still doesn't require masks. Now its hospitals are filling up and the state's COVID-19 death rate is among the worst in the world.

The situation is similarly dire in North Dakota: The state's governor recently even moved to allow health care workers who have tested positive for COVID-19 to continue working if they don't show symptoms. It's a controversial policy recommended by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in a crisis situation where hospitals are short-staffed.

And now, after months of resisting a statewide mask mandate, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum changed course late Friday, ordering that masks be worn statewide and imposing several business restrictions.

“Our situation has changed, and we must change with it,” Burgum said in a video message posted late Friday. Doctors and nurses “need our help, and they need it now.”

South Dakota welcomed hundreds of thousands of visitors to a massive motorcycle rally this summer, declined to cancel the state fair and still doesn't require masks. Now its hospitals are filling up and the state's COVID-19 death rate is among the worst in the world.

The situation is similarly dire in North Dakota: The state's governor recently even moved to allow health care workers who have tested positive for COVID-19 to continue working if they don't show symptoms. It's a controversial policy recommended by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in a crisis situation where hospitals are short-staffed.

And now, after months of resisting a statewide mask mandate, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum changed course late Friday, ordering that masks be worn statewide and imposing several business restrictions.

“Our situation has changed, and we must change with it,” Burgum said in a video message posted late Friday. Doctors and nurses “need our help, and they need it now.”

">https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/11/14/covid-19-north-sou...

Just to update, the Dakotas are currently seeing a massive decline in the number of new cases. Here in Manitoba today we are above 300 cases for the first time in approximately a week. Nothing we've tried is bending the curve downwards. Perhaps the Dakotas made a few mistakes in where covid ended up actually spreading and could have done a better job in specific areas, but I would much rather be on a trajectory that was rapidly falling than one that is basically flat with a few spikes.

jerrym

jerrym wrote

"As of late October 2020 Manitoba has the highest number of active cases per capita of all Canadian provinces and territories." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Manitoba#:~:text=The%...).&text=As%20of%20late%20October%202020,all%20Canadian%20provinces%20and%20territories.)

What impact do you think this is now having on the popularity of the government and other political parties? Will it have an impact if this persists?

Aristotleded24 wrote

    So basically the pandemic appears to be hitting people who wouldn't vote for Pallister anyways and hasn't really shaken his core base. Although that 45% figure looks low, the PCs have a rock-solid 40-plus percent of the vote they can count on in this province. It's true the southern portion of the province has just been placed into the red zone, but PC support in this portion of the province is so strong that it's not going to make a huge dent. Unless something drastic like a bunch of rural people who need specialized care in Winnipeg can't get it happens, on these numbers Pallister and the PCs can easily be re-elected, especially if the Liberals are strong enough to cost the NDP seats in Winnipeg.

 

Your prediction that Covid will have little to no impact on Pallister and the PCs doesn't seem to bearing out at all.  As Covid hits home in Manitoba the PCs have dropped 6% in the polls to 34% from 40% in September, while the NDP have taken the lead for the first time since 2016, climbing 7% from 34% to 41%. The Liberals fell 2% from 16% to 14%. NDP leader Wab Kinew ascribed the party's climb in the polls to the failure of the PC government to deal effectively with Covid-19 during the second wave. Significantly, for the NDP it is now statistically tied with the PCs in the southwest and southeast of  the province where it has often been weakest.

Pallister gives every sense of wanting out before the next election and I expect the PCs in time will try a kind of Wall-to-Moe change in the hopes they imitate what the Saskatchewan Party did this year in winning re-election, but I think that transition will be more difficult for the Manitba PCs because Covid had not fully hit in the second wave when the Saskatchewan election campaign occurred and the Saskatchewan Party also had a much larger lead going into the election.

The New Democratic Party of Manitoba (NDP) has the highest level of support in the province for the first time since 2016, while support for the Progressive Conservative Party has fallen sharply, according to the results of a new poll.

The poll, which was released Friday and was done by Probe Research, said roughly 41 per cent of Manitobans would vote for the NDP in a provincial election, up from 34 per cent in September. It is the highest polling level for the party since they lost the 2016 provincial election.

The Progressive Conservative Party saw its support drop six per cent from September to 34 per cent.

The Manitoba Liberals sit at 14 per cent support, a two per cent decrease from September, while the Manitoba Greens have six per cent support. Fifteen per cent of voters surveyed are undecided.

The poll said there are two factors for the increase in NDP support. The party is seeing increased support in Winnipeg, with 46 per cent of voters in the city surveyed saying they would vote for the party. The support is coming at the expense of Manitoba Liberals, whose support in the city dropped from 22 per cent to 17 per cent. The PCs support in Winnipeg dropped from 32 to 30 per cent.

“The NDP holds a massive lead over its opponents in the Core area, significant leads in northwest and northeast Winnipeg, and is statistically tied with the PCs in the battleground southwest and southeast quadrants,” the survey reads.

The poll added the PC support has also dropped among women. Between September to December, support among women for PCs dropped from 37 per cent to 29 per cent. Support from women for the NDP rose from 38 per cent to 45 per cent.

Support for PCs remains higher among Manitobans aged 55 and older (47 per cent to 35 per cent for the NDP). The NDP is leading among those aged 35 to 54 (41 per cent to 34 per cent) and among those aged 18-34 (43 per cent to 33 per cent). ...

Speaking to reporters on Friday, NDP Leader Wab Kinew said he believes the poll shows that Manitobans are upset with the government for not preparing for the pandemic’s second wave.

“Just to speak frankly on a personal level, I would much rather not have a good poll for my party and myself, and have had a better response to COVID, but unfortunately that wasn’t the case,” he said. “So, at the same time, we’re going to keep working hard here, because I think a lot of the ideas that we put forward would have actually made a difference, would have led the province to have been better prepared, and so I think the polls are reflecting what everybody already knows, which is that the government has not done a good job this fall, and people are frustrated with that, so you’re seeing that reflected.”

https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/tory-popularity-drops-in-manitoba-favour-mov...

Aristotleded24

jerrym wrote:

jerrym wrote

"As of late October 2020 Manitoba has the highest number of active cases per capita of all Canadian provinces and territories." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Manitoba#:~:text=The%...).&text=As%20of%20late%20October%202020,all%20Canadian%20provinces%20and%20territories.)

What impact do you think this is now having on the popularity of the government and other political parties? Will it have an impact if this persists?

Aristotleded24 wrote

    So basically the pandemic appears to be hitting people who wouldn't vote for Pallister anyways and hasn't really shaken his core base. Although that 45% figure looks low, the PCs have a rock-solid 40-plus percent of the vote they can count on in this province. It's true the southern portion of the province has just been placed into the red zone, but PC support in this portion of the province is so strong that it's not going to make a huge dent. Unless something drastic like a bunch of rural people who need specialized care in Winnipeg can't get it happens, on these numbers Pallister and the PCs can easily be re-elected, especially if the Liberals are strong enough to cost the NDP seats in Winnipeg.

 

Your prediction that Covid will have little to no impact on Pallister and the PCs doesn't seem to bearing out at all.  As Covid hits home in Manitoba the PCs have dropped 6% in the polls to 34% from 40% in September, while the NDP have taken the lead for the first time since 2016, climbing 7% from 34% to 41%. The Liberals fell 2% from 16% to 14%. NDP leader Wab Kinew ascribed the party's climb in the polls to the failure of the PC government to deal effectively with Covid-19 during the second wave. Significantly, for the NDP it is now statistically tied with the PCs in the southwest and southeast of  the province where it has often been weakest.

That's an interesting development, jerry. I actually receive e-mails from the Manitoba NDP regularly, and none of them have mentioned that. Not saying I don't believe that the NDP is doing that well in those parts of the province, but maybe I missed something there.

Edited to add: oh yeah, I see that the news article talks about the southwest and southeast quadrants of Winnipeg. I'm looking for more data on the state of public opinion in the more rural areas of the province. That said, it's overall good news for the NDP, since PC support in the rural areas is effectively concentrated in Winkler, Morden, and Steinbach, which makes the vote very inefficient.

Aristotleded24

Now a Cabinet shuffle:

Quote:
Heather Stefanson and Audrey Gordon now share the health portfolio, which was previously handled by Cameron Friesen, who now leads the justice department, the premier announced at a swearing-in ceremony on Tuesday morning.

Stefanson, the former families minister, takes the lead on the COVID-19 pandemic as the minister of health and seniors.

The government has faced sharp criticism over its handling of the pandemic.

"Minister Stefanson has performed admirably in every assignment I've given her," Pallister said. 

Gordon, a first-term MLA, leads the new Department of Mental Health, Wellness and Recovery. She's the first Black cabinet minister in Manitoba's history.

Wait, I thought Friesen was the minister of health. What happened to him?

Quote:

Pallister dismissed the suggestion that taking the health portfolio away from Friesen was a signal that he had done a poor job.

"I've got a tremendous amount of respect for Cam Friesen or he wouldn't be our new attorney general and justice minister," Pallister said.

The 2½ years Friesen held the position is longer than many other health ministers have served in Canada, and no one could have foreseen COVID-19 when Friesen took the job, the premier said.

I could see adding an additional person to this cabinet, but why would you change ministers outright in this crisis? Keep in mind that it was Friesen (and Goertzen before him) who wrecked our health care system, leaving an utter mess for Gordon and Sefanson to have to deal with. Furthermore, Fielding is still in the finance, so I don't expect the health department will have increased resources to deal with the problem.

This looks to me like a sort of "Kim Campbell" effect. We have a couple of old white men who have come in and made a mess of everything, but when this plays out it will be Gordon and Stefanson being scapegoated completely for things that happened beyond their control. That said, Stefanson has been less odious in the Familes department, and I really wish her and Gordon well as they try and steer us out of the mess they inherited.

Aristotleded24

Pages