Saskatchewan Provincial Election - Nov 7 / 11 Part 2

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Wilf Day

Lingenfelter behind in his own riding, with one poll reporting, if anyone cares.

janfromthebruce

I'm watching too with you all! Go NDP

Threads

Cut Knife--Turtleford is more or less a three-way race... two polls in (apparently this was a tabulation error, and the SP is stomping).  Greens leading in Regina Northeast (apparently a transcription error - should be the SP?).

6079_Smith_W

I just saw the numbers on Sgrazutti's (sp?) lead. Who knows if it will hold, but it sure doesn't look like an error. 

Amazing, since apparently the Sask Party thought they could take this one.

Threads

What the hell is going on in Cut Knife--Turtleford?  How is the NDP doing so well there?  I mean, yes, 5 of 55 polls - but still!

Deb Higgins now leading in Moose Jaw Wakamow.

Cathy Sproule now leading in Saskatoon Nutana.  Bernadette Gopher up in CKT still improving popular vote share over 2007.

NDP currently leading in the two northern seats; Saskatoons Centre, Massey Place, Riversdale and Nutana; Moose Jaw Wakamow; and Reginas Rosemont and Elphinstone-Centre.

NDP now trailing in Moose Jaw Wakamow.

janfromthebruce

it's not looking good - egads the home of Tommy Douglas - so cheating works I guess. :)

janfromthebruce

I'm looking at some of the winning results and amazed at the low number of votes to win - like under 2000 votes total - omg! eg. Swift Current

adma

Threads wrote:

Results are now being counted.  The NDP candidate in Lloydminster, astonishingly, pulled around 90% of the vote in the first poll to be reported.  The NDP candidate in Kelvington--Wadena pulled over 80% in the first poll to report.

Educated guess--First Nations polls?

Threads

Keep in mind that you're looking typically at half of all the polls being counted in ridings that are about a quarter the size of a federal riding in Saskatchewan.  If you want freaky low, look at Yukon or PEI.

NDP now declared elected in Athabasca (Belanger) and Saskatoon Massey Place (Broten).

Wilf Day

John Nilson in Regina Lakeview is behind by about the amount of the Green vote. (May be the only example of that.)

ghoris

Wow, what a blowout. It's 1982 all over again. (Actually, it's even worse - in '82 the NDP got 38 percent of the vote but this time they'll be lucky to crack 30).

Sask Party leading/elected in 50 and the NDP leading/elected in only 8 - and some of those are very tenuous. The Saskies are winning the rural seats with 75+% in most cases. The NDP is currently leading in only 2 seats in Regina. Link is on track to lose his seat. Even if he hangs on, he's going to have to resign tonight or very shortly thereafter. What a disaster.

Threads

John Nilson takes the lead in Regina Lakeview.  Warren McCall declared elected.  Bernadette Gopher still doing better than the 2007 NDP candidate in Cut Knife--Turtleford.  (More than half the polls are counted and she's nearly six points up.)

Also now elected: Trent Wotherspoon (Regina Rosemont), Doyle Vermette (Cumberland).

With 37/55 polls reporting, Bernadette Gopher now doing about eight points better than the 2007 candidate in CKT.  With 40/55, about 7.5 points better.

Nilson trailing again.

44/55 polls reporting, Gopher now down to ~6.7 points better.  Nilson back in the lead.

46/55.  Gopher now improved by about 6.2% over 2007.

ghoris

Lingenfelter is down by 700 votes with just two polls left to report. He's toast.

So the question is, does he pull an Iggy: make a graceful speech, sleep on it, and announce his resignation within a day or two; or does he pull a Hugh McFadyen and resign immediately in a petulant huff (but not before slagging the voters for being gullible and venal).

Threads

In the latest episode of Everybody's Least-Favourite Updates About Rural Ridings in Saskatchewan That They'll Have to Deal With Because I'm Honestly Amazed With The Results, with 48/55 polls in, Bernadette Gopher is at 34.63%.  Roger Emberley got around 29.38% in 2007 for the NDP in Cut Knife--Turtleford.

With 51/55 polls in, Gopher is now at 34.99%.

Wilf Day

Andy Iwanchuk 24 votes behind in Saskatoon Fairview, with one-third of the polls yet to report.

Threads

Andy Iwanchuk takes the lead in Saskatoon Fairview.

ghoris

The Liberals are at a miniscule one-half of one percent of the province-wide vote (!), with the leader getting a derisory 12% in The Battlefords. The words "completely moribund" come to mind.

Wilf Day

Bernadette Gopher is a Saulteaux First Nation businesswoman. She owns and operates White Rock Gas and Confectionary. Her husband, Fred, is a former Saulteaux chief and councillor.
http://www.newsoptimist.ca/article/20100621/BATTLEFORD0101/306219994/-1/BATTLEFORD/bernadette-gopher-seeks-ndp-nod-in-cut-knife-turtleford

bekayne

Threads wrote:

Andy Iwanchuk takes the lead in Saskatoon Fairview.

Now behind by 5

Threads

In their damning-with-false-praise defence, they didn't run all that many candidates.  Malcolm posted about this in some topic.

Gopher now at 34.59% with 52/55 polls in.  Iwanchuk trailing again.

bekayne

6 left to be called. Looks like the NDP will have between 8 and 11 seats.

ghoris

And now Iwanchuk's behind again. 5-vote lead for SaskParty. That one will go down to the wire.

Also, in the category of "Headlines I Never Thought I'd See in a Saskatchewan Election": the CBC website has an article headed "NDP to maintain party status as 2 MLAs re-elected".

Wilf Day

Eleven women elected or leading, out of 58 MLAs.

bekayne

Double post

janfromthebruce

maybe I'm crazy but it sure seems like the NDP leading ridings are taking forever to be declared.

Threads

The NDP-leading ridings are taking forever to be declared because the NDP is bottoming out and those leads are comparatively narrow.

janfromthebruce

and the ridings to be called for all are in Saskatoon!

bekayne

janfromthebruce wrote:

and the ridings to be called for all are in Saskatoon!

 

The 4 there all have spreads of 200 or more. The real squeaker is the one in Regina

ghoris

Yep, they actually took their time declaring Lingenfelter's defeat even though he was clearly way too far behind to catch up.

I will be curious to read Malcolm's post-mortem (literally in this case), but I can't help but wonder if this is the end result of running in 1999, 2003 and 2007 on a "The Saskatchewan Party is Crazy and Will Eat Your Children If Elected" platform. Then the sky didn't fall after the Saskies got in, there was no compelling reason to vote NDP anymore. As Malcolm has pointed out elsewhere, to the party's credit, they didn't run on that theme again this time, but as the saying goes, too soon old, too late smart. I see the recent Saskatchewan political cycle as being somewhat analogous to the 1980 U.S. presidential election, where Carter and Reagan were actually neck-and-neck until the debates. Carter had played to voter concerns that Reagan was some crazy extremist. Then when Reagan didn't appear crazy in the debates ("there you go again"), Carter's entire narrative collapsed and the reason not to vote for Reagan vanished. The rest is history.

Wilf Day

A CBC panellist asks: could Danielle Chartier or Cathy Sproule be the next leader?

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
I can't help but wonder if this is the end result of running in 1999, 2003 and 2007 on a "The Saskatchewan Party is Crazy and Will Eat Your Children If Elected" platform. Then the sky didn't fall after the Saskies got in, there was no compelling reason to vote NDP anymore. As Malcolm has pointed out elsewhere, to the party's credit, they didn't run on that theme again this time, but as the saying goes, too soon old, too late smart.

This is also the strategy that the NDP next door in Manitoba has been using to win elections since 1999, and I have previously expressed my gut feeling that the Manitoba NDP may very well be headed down the same road.

ghoris

Iwanchuk defeated in S'Toon-Fairview. Darcy Furber still trailing in PA-Northcote. Nilson holding on to a wafer-thin 61-vote lead in Regina-Lakeview.

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

Link has told the media he has tendered his resignation efective immediately.

Of the likely caucus of nine (Belanger, Broten, Chartier, Forbes, McCall, Nilson. Sproule, Vermette, Wotherspoon):

  • four are potential leadership candidates (Broten, Chartier, McCall, Wotherspoon)
  • one has no legislative experience (Sproule)
  • three actively supported Lingenfelter and are therefore tainted by recent events (Belanger, Vermette, Wotherspoon)
  • four have experience on the treasury benches (Belanger, Forbes, McCall, Nilson)

The logical candidates for the interim leadership are Belanger, Forbes and Nilson.  As noted, Belanger's early and active support for Lingenfelter means that he would have trouble changing the page.  John Nilson, frankly, is the weakest retail politician of the three (though possibly the smartest).

David Forbes is the obvious candidate for the interim leadership.

ghoris

Aristotleded24 wrote:

This is also the strategy that the NDP next door in Manitoba has been using to win elections since 1999, and I have previously expressed my gut feeling that the Manitoba NDP may very well be headed down the same road.

True. You can only run against Gary Filmon in so many elections.

(As a slightly off-topic aside, I am hard-pressed to think of another politician whose reputation actually got demonstrably worse *after* leaving elective office. Usually it's the opposite.)

ghoris

Just two seats left to be called: Regina-Lakeview, where the NDP has a 151-vote lead with 2 polls to report, and Prince Albert-Northcote, where the SaskParty has a 127-vote lead with 3 polls left to report.

Aristotleded24

Outside the North and Regina-Saskatoon, the NDP was pasted. They will have to reach out to voters in smaller communities. The recent strategy of hunkering down in the urban areas and crossing their fingers gave the Saskies a solid enough base to set the stage for the wave of green that has washed into the urban areas.

Stockholm

Essentially the Liberals vote shifted 100% to the Sask (Conservative) Party. Can someone remind me of the logic behind the idea that Liberal and NDP votes are supposed to be "interchangeable" and that people who vote Liberal all want to "stop the Tories" more than anything else. The evidence in the provinces indicates that when the Liberal vote vanishes - its the Tories who tend to benefit

ghoris

That was certainly not the case in either Manitoba or the Yukon. In both cases, the collapse of the Liberal vote was almost entirely to the benefit of the NDP.

In BC, the NDP stands to be the biggest beneficiary of the Liberal vote shifting to the BC Conservatives.

Yes, approximately 8% of the vote shifted from the Liberals to the SaskParty. But almost an equal number (just under 6%) shifted from the NDP to the SaskParty. This was not a simple case of the Liberal vote collapsing to the SaskParty.

Stockholm

In BC the NDP may benefit from some federal Tory voters deciding that the Social Credit/BC Liberal party is not rightwing ENOUGH or them (hard as that may be to believe) and going BC Conservative - but the fact remains that 100% of the activists and organizers and leading figures of the federal Liberal Party in BC - back the ultra rightwing so-called BC Liberals in provincial politics. They all think that the one and only priority in BC provincial politics is making sure that a progressive government is never elected and if that means linking arms with people like Stockwell Day and Preston Manning at a BC Liberal convention  to form their common front against the NDP they are only too happy to do so. 

knownothing knownothing's picture

NDP should be proud. They ran a positive campaign in the face fo impossible odds. 9 MLA's to carry the party forward and build a new identity. I was sure sad to see my MLA Deb Higgins lost, she was a good representative.

Threads

All numbers in the following post are rough eyeball estimates.

Swings to the NDP, general election over general election, range from +3.71 (Cut Knife--Turtleford) to a jaw-dropping -46.35 (Regina Walsh Acres).  The only other seats that saw positive swings to the NDP were Athabasca (+0.97) and Cannington (where, in losing by 60.04% rather than by 61.17%, the NDP ever-so-artfully managed a swing of +1.13).  Swings in Saskatoon range from -9.55 (Massey Place) to -25.97 (Southeast).  In Regina, the least negative swing for the NDP was the -5.93 swing in Rosemont.

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

The Regina Walsh Acres numbers are distorted by the fact there was no SaskParty candidate there last time.

 

This also marks, I believe, the first time that the federal NDP has outpolled the provincial NDP in Saskatchewan.

Threads

True enough; annoyingly, I'd actually noted the lack of an SP candidate there in 2007 but forgot to actually factor that in beyond the initial observation.  Discounting RWA, the biggest swing against the NDP was the (my estimate, as above) -33.99 in Regina Coronation Park.  Reginas Dewdney and Douglas Park also saw swings of more than 30 against the NDP.

JKR

Stockholm wrote:
Can someone remind me of the logic behind the idea that Liberal and NDP votes are supposed to be "interchangeable" and that people who vote Liberal all want to "stop the Tories" more than anything else. The evidence in the provinces indicates that when the Liberal vote vanishes - its the Tories who tend to benefit

I don't think anyone believes "that people who vote Liberal all want to 'stop the Tories'" but, at the federal level, polls have shown that people who tend to support the federal Liberals are much more likely to choose the federal NDP as their second choice, much more so than the Conservatives. These polls also indicate that supporters of the federal NDP are much more likely to choose the federal Liberals as their second choice, much more so than the Conservatives.

Ekos poll - 29 Apr 2011

Second Choice preferences:

Liberal supporters
NDP: 54.1
No 2nd choice: 17.1
Conservatives: 12.6
Green: 12.0
BQ: 3.3


NDP supporters

Liberal: 37%
Green: 19
No 2nd choice: 17.4
Conservative: 13.5
BQ: 10.9


BQ supporters
NDP: 48.6
No 2nd choice: 21.7
Liberals: 13.4
Green: 8.2
Consevatives: 6.9  


Green supporters

NDP: 40.3
No 2nd choice: 27.4
Liberals: 17.4
Consrrvatives: 11.0
BQ: 2.6


Conservative supporters

No 2nd choice: 47.4
NDP: 21.0
Liberals: 16.2
Green 11.1
BQ: 0.5

 

National federal vote intentions:
Conservative: 35.5
NDP: 30.6
Liberal: 19.9
BQ: 6.1
Green: 5.8

Wilf Day

After the 2011 election, communities in all of Saskatchewan outside Regina,
Saskatoon and the two northern ridings have no voice in the opposition. They
have no local voice to question any government action or inaction. Their regions
face one-party rule.

If Saskatchewan had a democratic voting system . . .

http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2011/11/if-saskatchewan-had-democratic-voting.html

Caissa

Can't you feel the momentum?Wink

KenS

Malcolm wrote:

four [surving MLAs are potential leadership candidates (Broten, Chartier, McCall, Wotherspoon)

.....

The logical candidates for the interim leadership are Belanger, Forbes and Nilson.....David Forbes is the obvious candidate for the interim leadership.

[post83 for the complete run down]

Sorry for being so ill informed- but was Mielli running?

Who would be obvious/likely names from outside the Caucus for leadership?

Bearing in mind that it is even more difficult to guess wo is up, or might be, for such a re-building job.

On the bright side- the way governments and voters are- Wall and the Sask Party will most likely have very much worn out their welcome long before 4 years from now. You can never count on that- but in terms of how difficult the road is likely to be... that probably will be there for room to find the legs and develop.

edmundoconnor

KenS wrote:

Sorry for being so ill informed- but was Mielli running?

No, he wasn't. I don't know what he's doing now.

knownothing knownothing's picture

Wilf Day wrote:

After the 2011 election, communities in all of Saskatchewan outside Regina, Saskatoon and the two northern ridings have no voice in the opposition. They have no local voice to question any government action or inaction. Their regions face one-party rule.

If Saskatchewan had a democratic voting system . . .

http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2011/11/if-saskatchewan-had-democratic-voting.html

Cmon, if there is one thing that did work last night it was democracy. 64% voted Sask Party.

In a 2 party-system FPTP actually works.

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

KenS wrote:

Malcolm wrote:

four [surving MLAs are potential leadership candidates (Broten, Chartier, McCall, Wotherspoon)

.....

The logical candidates for the interim leadership are Belanger, Forbes and Nilson.....David Forbes is the obvious candidate for the interim leadership.

[post83 for the complete run down]

Sorry for being so ill informed- but was Mielli running?

Who would be obvious/likely names from outside the Caucus for leadership?

Bearing in mind that it is even more difficult to guess wo is up, or might be, for such a re-building job.

On the bright side- the way governments and voters are- Wall and the Sask Party will most likely have very much worn out their welcome long before 4 years from now. You can never count on that- but in terms of how difficult the road is likely to be... that probably will be there for room to find the legs and develop.

 

 

Ryan sought the nomination in Saskatoon Sutherland, but withdrew before the convention.  Not running makes it difficult (though not impossible) for him to make a second bid for the leadership.

Ryan got married shortly after the last leadership convention, and he and his wife recently had a child.  He's working with the College of Medicine at the University of Saskatchewan and writing a book about the history and future of Medicare.

The likely leadership candidates at the moment are re-elected MLAs Trent Wotherspoon and Cam Broten, and probably only one of Ryan Meili, Yens Pedersen and Noah Evanchuk.  Other possible candidates would include MLAs Warren McCall, Danielle Chartier and the newly elected Cathy Sproule.  Of that potential cast, Cathy Sproule would be the oldest - a few years younger than me.

That all said, I'm quite adamant that it would be utterly foolish to go straight into a leadership race.  The SNDP needs to take some time for reflection, self-examination and real internal renewal.  What happened yesterday is far deeper than a leadership problem.

My own timeline would call for about a year of some sort of deliberative process (not sure exactly what it would look like).  Effectively, that year wouldn't start before January, reporting to a provincial convention in November of next year with some kind of statement of a vision of modern social democracy - a new Regina Manifesto, if you will.  A leadership race in the first half of the next year - so a new leader about June '13.

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