2018 Ontario Polls

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NDPP

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I live in Toronto, which is supposed to be a fertile ground for the ONDP, and I've yet to hear from them.   Not even a flyer so far.   I don't see any NDP lawn signs in my area either.    I had to look up the candidate's name online. 

NDPP wrote:

My riding is the same. But lots of Liberal signage and repeated door-knocking visits from the same quarter. No sign of NDP. 

robbie_dee

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I live in Toronto, which is supposed to be a fertile ground for the ONDP, and I've yet to hear from them.   Not even a flyer so far.   I don't see any NDP lawn signs in my area either.    I had to look up the candidate's name online. 

What riding do you live in? If you don't know you can look it up by typing in your postal code here.

NorthReport

I wonder what the next batch of polls will be showing Abacus will be releasing a poll sometime in the next few days

https://mobile.twitter.com/jm_mcgrath/status/1002201098772414464

josh

Grenier gives NDP 4% chance to win the most seats.  There’s somebody who could end up with a lot of egg on their face.

NorthReport

See who is not on the list

https://mria-arim.ca/polling

SocialJustice101

robbie_dee wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I live in Toronto, which is supposed to be a fertile ground for the ONDP, and I've yet to hear from them.   Not even a flyer so far.   I don't see any NDP lawn signs in my area either.    I had to look up the candidate's name online. 

What riding do you live in? If you don't know you can look it up by typing in your postal code here.

York Centre.   It should not be completely hopeless for the NDP, especially if they aim for a majority province-wide.    I'm just concerned about average folks knowing and remembering their ONDP candidate's name, which is required in an Ontario provincial election.

NorthReport
josh

Incompetence?

wage zombie

josh wrote:

Grenier gives NDP 4% chance to win the most seats.  There’s somebody who could end up with a lot of egg on their face.

He won't care.  I think he was predicting more Lib seats than NDP in fed 2011.  Every election he comes out with a new aggregation process that somehow seems to overestimate Lib support and underestimate NDP support.

Fortunately, this time it may work in our favour and eliminate any NDP complacency.

robbie_dee

SocialJustice101 wrote:

robbie_dee wrote:

What riding do you live in? If you don't know you can look it up by typing in your postal code here.

York Centre.   It should not be completely hopeless for the NDP, especially if they aim for a majority province-wide.    I'm just concerned about average folks knowing and remembering their ONDP candidate's name, which is required in an Ontario provincial election.

Gotcha. Well anything's possible but both Lispop and Electionprediction.org have already called York Center blue. NDP took 16% of the vote there in 2014 which is above desultory but a big mountain to climb. I think the real test would be if you travel west of Keele (north of Shepard) or west of Jane (south of Shepard to the 401) to Humber River Black Creek and start counting NDP lawnsigns there. HRBC is a must win for the NDP (39% second place in 2014).

robbie_dee

josh wrote:

Incompetence?

Could be that the riding polls are just wrong. Or that the provincial polls are wrong. Is Mainstreet weighting the samples for the demographics of the riding the same way that it weights the province wide polls?

Could also be that the PC vote is way MORE efficient than it is being given credit for, and the NDP is way less efficient. Maybe the NDP is going to stack up huge margins in all the urban centres but just won't get over the hump in the suburbs because there is so little in terms of voting history to build upon?

josh
NorthReport

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josh

Is there an echo in here?

Pogo Pogo's picture

Well it is an echo chamber.

NorthReport

NDP still maintains a slim lead in the polls

NDP - 39%

PCs - 38%

Libs - 18%

https://researchco.ca/2018/06/01/ontario-2018/

NorthReport

Liberal support is continuing to plummet now down to 18% in the latest poll out today. If the Liberal strength is that weak it augers well for the NDP’s chances next Thursday

If the trend continues it looks like Liberals support is heading for the 15%-16% range. If that happens the NDP might get an additional boost

NorthReport

Actually there is a new poll out this morning but whatever

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/06/how-much-uncertainty-is-there-in-this.html?m=1

Pogo Pogo's picture

I guess it depends who is leaving the Liberals.  Is the Liberal right going to the Conservatives or the left going to the NDP (in simplistic terms)?  Also where are they leaving - what are dynamics of the races?

NorthReport

Of course

NorthReport
NorthReport
Mighty Middle

Without Significant Changes, Doug Ford on Track for Majority Government

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/without-significant-change...

josh

Looks like NDP lost support to the Greens.  Which could be a statistical fluke or vote parking.

josh
bekayne

Pogo wrote:

I guess it depends who is leaving the Liberals.  Is the Liberal right going to the Conservatives or the left going to the NDP (in simplistic terms)?  Also where are they leaving - what are dynamics of the races?

But does it matter? Here's a quote from the blog from above:

The collapse of the Liberals has opened so many seats to the PC in the 905 and increased the vote efficiency of the Tories.

Liberal voters switching to the NDP in ridings where the NDP are in 3rd place pushing those ridings to the PCs.

NorthReport

It seems the Liberals have to lose a lot more support for the NDP to win

josh

bekayne wrote:

Pogo wrote:

I guess it depends who is leaving the Liberals.  Is the Liberal right going to the Conservatives or the left going to the NDP (in simplistic terms)?  Also where are they leaving - what are dynamics of the races?

But does it matter? Here's a quote from the blog from above:

The collapse of the Liberals has opened so many seats to the PC in the 905 and increased the vote efficiency of the Tories.

Liberal voters switching to the NDP in ridings where the NDP are in 3rd place pushing those ridings to the PCs.

That's where strategic voting comes into play.

josh

NorthReport wrote:

It seems the Liberals have to lose a lot more support for the NDP to win

This may be a better bet.  From the EKOS poll.

Nevertheless, there is still significant room for change. Indeed, the proportion of respondents who remain undecided is high at 10 points, which is uncommonly high for such a late stage of an election campaign.

Cody87

bekayne wrote:

But does it matter? Here's a quote from the blog from above:

The collapse of the Liberals has opened so many seats to the PC in the 905 and increased the vote efficiency of the Tories.

Liberal voters switching to the NDP in ridings where the NDP are in 3rd place pushing those ridings to the PCs.

This is my prediction for Peterborough. If lawn signs are any indication, the NDP hasn't a chance here...they'll probably come third, but because of province-wide trends they'll pick up votes from the Liberals. In the city is a slim Liberal lead in signs (probably 50% liberal 35% PC 15% NDP) and in the outskirts it's heavy PC majority (probably 70%PC 25% Liberal 5% NDP). The strong Liberal incumbent will lose to the PC candidate.

A similar thing happened in Oshawa in 2015...NDP is the traditional rival to the CPC, but Trudeau's surge made the vote split worse and the CPC candidate won easily.

jerrym

ETA: Sorry, I just realized  josh made the same point above. Ekos does sound one cautionary note at the end of their explanation about their poll showing the Conservatives opening up a lead.

Nevertheless, there is still significant room for change. Indeed, the proportion of respondents who remain undecided is high at 10 points, which is uncommonly high for such a late stage of an election campaign.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/without-significant-change...

Besides the variation from poll to poll, the relatively large number of undecideds means there could be significant movement in one direction or another during the last week of the election and that many voters are finding it hard to pick which party they prefer. 

 

ghoris

The NDP needs to squeeze what's left of the Liberal vote for all it's worth. Any right-leaning Liberals either deserted to the PCs a long time ago, or plan to stay home. Horwath has to make a convincing case, again and again until June 8, that the NDP is the *only* viable progressive option to stop a Ford government.

The Liberals did it to the NDP federally in 2004, provincially in 2014 and federally again in 2015. (It was only a last-minute shift of NDP voters to the Grits in 2004 that saved Martin's bacon.) Turnabout is fair play.

gadar

"Doug Ford on track for majority"

Mighty Middle

ghoris wrote:

The Liberals did it to the NDP in 2015.

Trudeau NEVER made an appeal to voters to vote strategically. Not once in that campaign. If anything it was the NDP and Mulcair who were pushing a strategic voting narrative with

"We are the only ones to defeat Stephen Harper" and

"We have 100 seats, we only need 35 more to defeat Stephen Harper. Incumbancy matters"

Sean in Ottawa

Pollsters tend to take the undecided and just divide them up among the parties. This is often fine if there is not a isngle majority reason for the undecided.

If the Undeicded include those wanting to stop the Liebrals and those wanting to stop the Conservatives as it was at the start of the campaign then the advatnage was with the NDP as they had support from both. Now if the NDP largely one that battle and the Liberals are already considered stopped and the undecided are trying to stop the Conservatives then the Liberals and the NDP would both be undercounted and there could be a disadvantage to the Conservatives.

It is also possible that there will not be no strategic voting against the Liberals if they are not seen as a threat but more of one agaisnt the Conservatives. This could have two possible effects -- first if could make both NDP and Liberal votes slightly more efficient as their support does not go as head to head as different ridngs go for one or the other. This is what strategic voting is supposed to do according to proponents. The second possibility is that an attempt at this make so many mistakes about who is really ahead that they actually make it worse and both the NDP and Liberals become less efficient. Across the province you may see a combination.

While no party will go too far in promoting this what they could do -- if they wanted to -- is release polls in ridings where they are the one to beat -- an even number of ridings helping people trying to do this with some information. This is like a trade but indirect.  It is also possible that the NDP which does not like the idea of such cooperation (being burned in the past) may feel that the Liberals do not have enough support to bring to the table for such a deal and that a province-wide appeal remains the best option.

I can't say that I have come to like the strategic vote option any more than I have in the past. There may be enough like me who just decline on principle.

Ken Burch

And here's the thing:  strategic voting is not an intrinsically EVIL concept.  It's just that it needs to be mutual.  It needs to be an EQUAL proposition, in which the idea is that supporters of whichever candidates or parties involved in the strategy happen to be out of contention in a particular riding would throw their support to the other party that was strategically involved.  The problem has only come in when it's all been about making the party that was smaller at the start of the campaign simply defer to whichever party was larger.  Were it to be done with each party treating the other with mutual respect...were it to be done on the assumption that BOTH parties involved were legitimate political forces and that it would be just as valid for either to end up being the larger of the two...AND, most important of all, were there to be an absolute ironclad commitment that the first act of legislation passed in the legislature or parliament elected via strategic voting would be an electoral reform bill that would implement proportional representation, to be used whenever the next provincial or federal election was held, so that no wrong-winner or false-majority election results would ever occur again.  THAT kind of strategic voting would, I think, would be fine with about 98% of us here.

It's just that that usually hasn't been what was called for by those who used the term "strategic voting".

I'll concede the point that the Liberals didn't technically use the term "strategic voting" in 2015, federally.  What they did, instead, was to essentially make an appeal to historic political entitlement...people were pressed to vote Liberal because the Liberals were the ones who were SUPPOSED to be the alternative to the Conservatives, after spending four years acting as though the NDP had no right to have finished second in 2011 and after blaming the NDP surge that year for Harper's majority(in reality, Harper was going to win a majority that year no matter which party finished second-it was never possible that the voters would have seen Ignatieff as potential prime minister).   The NDP accidentally abetted it by having a leader who appeared to be running the entire campaign in a state of complete detatchment from reality.

Mighty Middle

Ken Burch wrote:

What they did, instead, was to essentially make an appeal to historic political entitlement...people were pressed to vote Liberal because the Liberals were the ones who were SUPPOSED to be the alternative to the Conservatives, after spending four years acting as though the NDP had no right to have finished second in 2011 and after blaming the NDP surge that year for Harper's majority(in reality, Harper was going to win a majority that year no matter which party finished second-it was never possible that the voters would have seen Ignatieff as potential prime minister).  

Didn't realize that Justin Trudeau had the power of persuasion to telegraph a message like that. Mulcair really underestimated Trudeau's telekinetic orbing powers.

josh

gadar wrote:

"Doug Ford on track for majority"

Yeah, that’s why the huh to the, here’s hoping.

Pondering

Strategic voting is an individual act. Parties have no control over it so there is nothing to reciprocate. The only question is when does it help a party and when does it hurt a party.

An appeal to strategic voting can been seen as having nothing to offer. It's asking for votes because the other guy is so bad you are good in comparison. It can seem weak, as it was for Mulcair.

I don't think it is either in this case because the race is neck and neck. It will be Horwath or Ford that wins.

I hope and think  young people are going to come out in unusually high numbers. This is exactly the kind of election that will attract them. It's a tight polarized race in which their votes could make the difference. That's motivating.

That will be (hopefully) the key to Horwath's win.

NorthReport

Why doesn’t Kinsella tell us how he really feels

https://mobile.twitter.com/kinsellawarren/status/1002583207492096002

Cody87

josh wrote:

gadar wrote:

"Doug Ford on track for majority"

Yeah, that’s why the huh to the, here’s hoping.

My guess is that NR was referring to the tweet just before: https://mobile.twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1002579744188084225

@NR: To avoid this sort of confusion in the future, if you click on the tweet you want to reference, then you can copy that URL and link to a specific tweet.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

The lower the Liberal vote, the harder it is going to be to extract any votes from the rest. You are down to traditional family alliances now. Where they give the BBQ for the Liberal candidate and donate to the party. Where they have Liberal government and business connections. No particular ideology, but fiercely Liberal going back decades and generations.

Ken Burch

Mighty Middle wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

What they did, instead, was to essentially make an appeal to historic political entitlement...people were pressed to vote Liberal because the Liberals were the ones who were SUPPOSED to be the alternative to the Conservatives, after spending four years acting as though the NDP had no right to have finished second in 2011 and after blaming the NDP surge that year for Harper's majority(in reality, Harper was going to win a majority that year no matter which party finished second-it was never possible that the voters would have seen Ignatieff as potential prime minister).  

Didn't realize that Justin Trudeau had the power of persuasion to telegraph a message like that. Mulcair really underestimated Trudeau's telekinetic orbing powers.

Mulcair underestimated just about everything.  I'm no apologist for his incompetence.  But c'mon, there had been this endless drumbeat since 2011 that

A) The NDP had NO RIGHT ever to have done better than the Liberals did in a federal election;

B) The Harper majority was ALL the NDP's fault, and would have been prevented if ONLY the NDP had recognized that it had a moral obligation NEVER to gain seats or votes as long as Harper was in power, or if need be as long as the Conservative Party went on existing, and that therefore, the NDP could be blamed for everything Harper did with his majority; 

C) It was a moral outrage that the NDP made huge gains in Quebec, and the fact that it made more gains there than anywhere else meant that none of the NDP gains anywhere were legitimate;

D) It was solely the NDP's fault that Harper was in power in the first place, because it voted against Martin in the no-confidence motion years before that(even though it was repeatedly proven that Martin's government would have fallen by two votes even if the NDP had voted for it, and even though Martin would only have been in power for one more month if it had survived the motion, and that there was nothing Martin could have done in the next month that would have saved him from defeat at the polls).

Yes, Mulcair ran a godawful campaign, and yes, there was no excuse for him even trying to hang onto the leadership after the 2015 result or for anyone wanting him to stay in the leadership after that, but that doesn't neutralize the effects of years of the smears and lies I listed above being pounded home by the LPC and its allies on the CBC.  

 

 

 

Mighty Middle

Ken I think people have moved on as we are half-way past 2018.

jerrym

Mighty Middle wrote:

Ken I think people have moved on as we are half-way past 2018.

You haven't.

brookmere

wage zombie wrote:
(Grenier) won't care.  I think he was predicting more Lib seats than NDP in fed 2011.  Every election he comes out with a new aggregation process that somehow seems to overestimate Lib support and underestimate NDP support

In 2011 he predicted 78 for the NDP and 60 for the Liberals. In 2015 he predicted 146 for the Liberals and 66 for the NDP. As the saying goes, you're entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2011/05/threehundredeights-track-record.html

 

Mighty Middle

jerrym wrote:

You haven't.

Examples?

jerrym

Your endless posts. I'm sure it won't take much effort to find them. 

 

Mighty Middle

jerrym wrote:

Your endless posts. I'm sure it won't take much effort to find them.

So go to it.

Pogo Pogo's picture

Rehash moments from memory:

  • I am pretty sure you advised everyone repeatedly that Premier/PM was not an entry level job.
  • I also remember you recently telling people about Mulclair's statements regarding strategic voting

I eagerly await your spin.

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