2018 Ontario Polls

938 posts / 0 new
Last post
progressive17 progressive17's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

This is why I have (along with others here) been speculating on who would vote -- if sufferage is high then that means that the weighted polls are going to be wrong and the younger totals will matter more. If voting is low then these polls could seem to be correct.

I'm not as sure that Horwath will win as I was Trudeau, but pretty close. I predict a high turnout from youth concerned about the environment. Her costed program will also appeal.

Even if that were not the case I think Doug Ford scares them and that will bring them out in droves.

Counting on young people not to vote I  think is a mistake. The trend may have been dropping numbers but times they are a changing. Baby Boomers were so dominant and the parties so alike young people weren't motivated. Now that boomers are beginning to die off other people have more of  a chance to impact the outcome.

Young people have been educated on pollution and climate change since kindergarten. They don't see businesses as providers because young people have no job security so when Ford champions businesses as the route to security it isn't very convincing. They want social services.

The problem here is that the Ford campaign is much more artful.

The strategy is to assume that older voters who want poor bashing and slashing and burning of social supports will vote conservative and will not need a platform. Younger voters are being bombarded with left "for the people" messages -- just look at you tube for an hour. Some will see through this but the more stupid ones will miss it. The Conservatives are working with a wink and a nudge on older voters and sounding as left as the NDP for the youth who won't know any better and may be encouraged by their parents.

Ford has put together the perfect coalition that works for the right -- the greedy and the stupid. all he needs is the greed vote with a decent cohort of stupid vote -- even with the more informed among the youth against him.

It will be a miracle if the NDP can beat this.

You just have to hope that the stupid vote and the not-bother-to-vote does not decide this thing.

Ford's advertising and campaign is the most opaque and dishonest as Ontario has ever seen.

The dynamic you are comparing with is totally different-- in 2015 it was the right party done like dinner and the most dishonest of opposition parties that won. (The NDP campaign was also dishonest with offers long into the futures and claims that taxes would not need to be increasesed in order to pay for needed social justice while the Liberals most sold policy was a bait and switch tax cut for the fairly rich.)

In Ontario you ahve an unpopular government on one side and on the other the NDP and the Conservatives trying to sound like NDP but not giving a platform so they can screw the people without looking like they are breaking platform promises too much.

When you have a party willing to go this low -- you cannot assume they will lose.

Also you cannot assume that the greedy + stupid in Ontario is not a majority. It is if you give an excuse to them to vote together.

Ontario is being fucked for a $1 beer, promise of cheap hydro  and a lie.

It has always been a rule in bar economics that the cheaper the beer, the more you have to pay for security. Places with $1 beer are generally characterized by intemperate behaviour, which is not a Platonic virtue. With the collapse of the healthcare system, people will claim they are drinking for 'medicinal purposes', as in days of yore. So this is Ford's plan for healthcare. Well, there's half the provincial budget turned into a profit centre for the international beer oligopolies and local cartels.
 

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Exponential profits for stock-market-listed power companies will always take precedence over hydro rates for consumers. 

bekayne

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
Ontario is being fucked for a $1 beer

If only Horwath were pledging universal dental care for the province.  Simpsons fans might know where I'm going with this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BgqtBm_oUpc

NorthReport

Could not agree more. 

TBH & maybe I'm alone in this, I'm not sure should be projecting the outcome of an election this way. Not sure it should be their role. Plus some methodological issues with a "probability" number based on dated/averaged data.

https://twitter.com/bruceanderson/status/1003664937984581634

progressive17 progressive17's picture

bekayne wrote:

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
Ontario is being fucked for a $1 beer

If only Horwath were pledging universal dental care for the province.  Simpsons fans might know where I'm going with this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BgqtBm_oUpc

And even better, Duff beer, as in Mike Harris, "The Duffer"...

NorthReport
Ken Burch

Love the fact that they use the term "Liberal Swing Drop", which they abbreviate as "LSD".

Pondering

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
 The problem here is that the Ford campaign is much more artful. 

Young people are also much more artful and skeptical than previous generations. They aren't listening to all the crap. All they take in are the high points.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
 Ford has put together the perfect coalition that works for the right -- the greedy and the stupid. all he needs is the greed vote with a decent cohort of stupid vote -- even with the more informed among the youth against him. 

I don't believe it will be a winning combination. That was Harper's gambit in 2015. Trudeau won.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
  The dynamic you are comparing with is totally different-- in 2015 it was the right party done like dinner and the most dishonest of opposition parties that won.

In this case the Liberals are done like dinner. It is a change election just as 2015 was although Harper was much stronger than the Wynne Liberals. Young people came out because they didn't want Harper. They voted for the Liberals because the Liberals had a costed platform and were promising to run a deficit. The NDP appeared to be more dishonest because they promised no deficit for all four years and national daycare. 15$ min wage was seen as bait and switch. Not supporting legalization make them appear less progressive  than the Liberals.

The Liberals were in third place at the beginning of the campaign. It was a Conservativ e/NDP race. In Ontario it was a PC Liberal race with the PCs having  the lead. The NDP were in 3rd.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
 In Ontario you ahve an unpopular government on one side and on the other the NDP and the Conservatives trying to sound like NDP but not giving a platform so they can screw the people without looking like they are breaking platform promises too much. 

You are assuming people will believe him. Young people in particular will not. Ford is more Harper than Trudeau. Horwath is no Trudeau either but she is a lot closer.

I think the latest will hurt him a great deal.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/06/04/rob-fords-widow-sues-doug...

The widow and children of Toronto mayor Rob Ford have sued Doug Ford alleging he has deprived them of millions of dollars, including shares in the family business and a life insurance policy left behind to support his family.

In a $16.5-million lawsuit, filed Friday in Superior Court, Renata Ford also alleges that Doug Ford is a “negligent” business manager whose decisions have led to a steady decrease in the value of the Ford company, Deco Labels. Despite setting his sight on a political career, Doug has continued to receive “extravagant compensation,” even though Deco is losing money, Renata claims in her court filings.

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering, I hope your concliusions here are correct. The news about Ford today, I hope will help.

I go between deep pessimism as I see so many attaching themselves to the superficial artifice of the conservative pretence at a people's campaign to an hope that the NDP can somehow defeat this.

U nfortunately the pessimism has the edge as I look at this. I hope that the youth do come out and vote as I think they have greater clarity of vision compared to older generations but I do worry that they are more liable to be conned by the pretence. So while the ideology of the youth is correct, the false representation the Conservatives are bringing is a threat.

If the stories about Ford today are unable to breach the illusion then probably nothing will.

This one will be close in voting numbers I think if not as much in seats.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

It seems the advance polls were up almost 20% over last time. If this big turnout carries over into election day, I think the NDP have a better chance of winning than Doug "Alleged Breach of Trust" Ford

Ken Burch

Are there going to be any more polls between now and Thursday, or are we now in the "blackout period"?

NorthReport

Ken Burch wrote:

Love the fact that they use the term "Liberal Swing Drop", which they abbreviate as "LSD".

NorthReport

Ken Burch wrote:

Love the fact that they use the term "Liberal Swing Drop", which they abbreviate as "LSD".

NorthReport
NorthReport

After today if I was a pollster I think I would reassess.

Pondering

I do think the election rides on turnout. If it is high, the NDP has the best shot. If low, the PCs. Ford's defence is that Renata was trying to shake him down and threatened to go public if he didn't pay.

I don't think attacking Renata is going to help his case.

PCs have a large strong base that shows up to vote. He still needs swing  voters to push him over the top. Business pages are not praising Ford. Fiscal conservatives are actually better off with the NDP! This is a train wreck for the Conservatives. Ford will not be their leader for long.

bekayne

Ken Burch wrote:

Are there going to be any more polls between now and Thursday, or are we now in the "blackout period"?

In 2014 they polled up to the day before the election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2014#Opinion_polls

SocialJustice101

[double post deleted]

SocialJustice101

Some posters mentioned a "black out" period.   I don't think this exists in Canada.

NorthReport

Yes there will be additional polls

NorthReport

There is a blackout period for paid advertising which begins Tuesday, June 5 at midnite and it is in effect for 48 hours. 

Ken Burch

NorthReport wrote:

There is a blackout period for paid advertising which begins Tuesday, June 5 at midnite and it is in effect for 48 hours. 

Oh, that's it.  Thanks for clarifying.

NorthReport
josh

Over 1 in 10 voters still undecided.  NDP needs to win the bulk of them and pick up some more late Liberal switchers .

Ken Burch

How the hell do they do that?  Horwath needs to come up with something big, quick.

josh

Have to hope stopping Ford is a strong enough pull for those voters.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Pondering is correct in identifying family values Tories who will take a very dim view of Doug Ford Jr.'s alleged breach of trust of a widow and orphans in his own family. Businesspeople and fiscal Conservatives will also take a dim view of his evidently corrupt, inefficient, wasteful, and incompetent management of the family firm and savings, which seemed to be worth more than $20 million on the death of the father. This apparently is almost all gone.

There is no record of completing high school, let alone a bachelors degree, which you would normally think would be an absolute minimum qualification for someone who wishes to get into politics, OR a successful business career (which is very hard to do with no post-secondary education of any kind).

This is likely to have a severe effect on the GOTV machine of the PCPO. The pestering Amway distributor types who run these operations will tend to find a lot of phone calls being avoided. GOTV volunteers will have better things to do. It would be interesting to see how many PCPO scrutineers will be in and out of the polls. If you go by a PCPO campaign office on e-day and all you hear is crickets, you will know it is all over. They don't tend to do home centres as do the Liberals and NDP, as they have enough cars to get people around.

Sean in Ottawa

The NDP being close but behind might be very important and even helpful at this point.

NorthReport

Pollara is showing a 3% Liberal drop from 20% to 17% in just one day from Jun 3 to Jun 4.  

robbie_dee

NorthReport wrote:

Pollara is showing a 3% Liberal drop from 20% to 17% in just one day from Jun 3 to Jun 4.  

It's also showing a solid lead for the Ford Tories in the advance polls, which is concerning. Even if the late breaking lawsuit revelations change some Ford supporters' minds, they can't change votes that have already been cast.

Sean in Ottawa

robbie_dee wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Pollara is showing a 3% Liberal drop from 20% to 17% in just one day from Jun 3 to Jun 4.  

It's also showing a solid lead for the Ford Tories in the advance polls, which is concerning. Even if the late breaking lawsuit revelations change some Ford supporters' minds, they can't change votes that have already been cast.

No it is not. Please stop repeating this. It is showing a lead for the conservatives in A SINGLE POLL OF SMALL SAMPLE of advance polls. It is important not to mix this statement up with anything that suggests a result.

robbie_dee

There have been other polls that have also asked the "have you already voted; if yes, who for" question. I've seen them showing a lead for the Tories, too. I agree it is hard to know whether these results are statistically significant or not given that they represent a subset of a sample; we also don't know whether - even assuming that the Tories do have a lead in advance voting- they have a history of outperforming, matching, or for that matter underperforming their final results in the advance polls such that a finding that they are leading here is a meaningful indicator of how they will do in the election.

That being said, I stand by the view that the Tories probably benefit from the overall high advance poll results. Not only because the admittedly limited data we have suggests that they are ahead in those votes; but also, more importantly, because the Tories just sustained a negative public event that (presumably) could change some prospective Tory voters' minds - provided they haven't already voted.

josh

NorthReport wrote:

Pollara is showing a 3% Liberal drop from 20% to 17% in just one day from Jun 3 to Jun 4.  

They say Cons had a strong night on June 2 while the NDP had a strong night last night.

Pondering

robbie_dee wrote:

There have been other polls that have also asked the "have you already voted; if yes, who for" question. I've seen them showing a lead for the Tories, too. I agree it is hard to know whether these results are statistically significant or not given that they represent a subset of a sample; we also don't know whether - even assuming that the Tories do have a lead in advance voting- they have a history of outperforming, matching, or for that matter underperforming their final results in the advance polls such that a finding that they are leading here is a meaningful indicator of how they will do in the election.

That being said, I stand by the view that the Tories probably benefit from the overall high advance poll results. Not only because the admittedly limited data we have suggests that they are ahead in those votes; but also, more importantly, because the Tories just sustained a negative public event that (presumably) could change some prospective Tory voters' minds - provided they haven't already voted.

At a guess I would say most advance voters are partisan. The PCs have the largest cohort of dedicated followers so it makes sense they would have the highest turnout in advance polls.

Mr. Magoo

Quote:
At a guess I would say most advance voters are partisan.

I think that's reasonable.  I have a harder time imagining lots of voters saying "I don't really know yet who I'm voting for, so I better do it early".

Maybe this isn't the kind of data that wonks need more of, to obsess over, but I wonder to what degree advance polling mirrors or deviates from e-day polling?  Are the numbers more or less congruent, or does (let's say) the underdog typically have an advantage in advance polling?  Or consistently one party?  Or is there no pattern to it at all?

SocialJustice101

The Cons historically have a better fund-raising game than the NDP and the Liberals.  It would be reasonable to assume this organization is also used to get the Con voters to the polls early.     

Mr. Magoo

Could be.  But I'd still be slightly interested to know whether that means the Cons always take an early lead in advance polling.  I'm pretty sure they've always had the biggest war chest, but that doesn't really explain why, when they've lost anyway, they've lost anyway.

Pogo Pogo's picture

Advance polls are used far more than they used to.  The GOTV team works their list of tick marks to get them out early.  So I would say that advance polls nowadays are heavily weighted to committed voters and strength of election team.

Sean in Ottawa

Pogo wrote:

Advance polls are used far more than they used to.  The GOTV team works their list of tick marks to get them out early.  So I would say that advance polls nowadays are heavily weighted to committed voters and strength of election team.

Yes and very busy people -- this includes execs and others who must travel.

I would not think they are very representative.

NorthReport

Leger just out with a poll and its a tossup between PCs 39% and the NDP 38%, but a disaster for the Liberals at 18%!

 

josh

So I guess it will be a happy election for you even if Ford is premier.

And the Liberals were at 17 in the Pollara poll, so 18 is not surprising.

 

NorthReport

Nope, but the Liberals getting crushed, definitely.

And this latest Leger poll shows the Liberals have dropped 3% from the previous Leger poll.

Northern-54

"no. We want more numbers . Right now we see it deadlocked."

Frank Graves (EKOS) explaining why EKOS is not releasing a poll today.

 

Ciabatta2

josh wrote:

So I guess it will be a happy election for you even if Ford is premier.

A Ford majority with just enough Liberals left over is quite possibly the worst outcome for the NDP - reinforces the age old Liberal narrative that voting NDP gets you conservative governments, and gives the Liberals a platform to swoop back in four years later and save Ontario from the chaos that NDP/PC votes get you.

 

NorthReport

A last minute shift might be taking place

NDP 39.4%

PCs 38.4%

Libs 17.7%

Northern-54

EKOS poll with only 484 people participating.  Another half poll.  The other half being phoned tonight as I understand it.  Let's hope the NDP has another good night tonight, with more Liberals deciding to vote strategically.

NorthReport

EKOS

Party / May 31 / Jun 5 / Difference

NDP / 34.9% / 39.4% / Up 4.5%

PCs / 38.6% / 38.4% / Down 0.2%

 

Libs / 19.3% / 17.7% / Down 1.6%

 

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

NorthReport wrote:

EKOS

Party / May 31 / Jun 5 / Difference

NDP / 34.9% / 39.4% / Up 4.5%

PCs / 38.6% / 38.4% / Down 0.2%

Libs / 19.3% / 17.7% / Down 1.6%

If this is correct, it would seem to indicate that the undecideds have been breaking overwhelmingly to the NDP, wouldn't it?

Northern-54

Yes.  The other positive thing from the poll (if it is correct) is that the upper class (who vote in high proportion) are much more likely to vote NDP and the poor (who do not tend to show up to vote) are much more likely to vote PC.   Similarly, women (who are more likely to vote NDP) vote in larger numbers than men (who are more likely to vote PC).  Furthermore, the advantage that the PC's have in the +65 population is getting to be less and less.   The NDP vote in this demographic is not changing but it appears that older Liberals are going back home to planning to vote Liberal rather than Conservative.

All this being said, the sample size is very small.

 

 

gadar

josh wrote:

So I guess it will be a happy election for you even if Ford is premier.

And the Liberals were at 17 in the Pollara poll, so 18 is not surprising.

 

Did you have any doubts. It will be a celebration of a Con majority disguised as a celebration of  NDP coming second.

Pages