2018 Ontario Polls

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NorthReport

Liberals are so graceful in defeat

SocialJustice101

If Fords wins, it's a defeat for ALL progressives, whether you're centre-left or left.   The course of government will be MUCH further away from NDP priorities than it was during the OLP reign.  

Sean in Ottawa

SocialJustice101 wrote:

If Fords wins, it's a defeat for ALL progressives, whether you're centre-left or left.   The course of government will be MUCH further away from NDP priorities than it was during the OLP reign.  

I think most are aware of this.

Northern-54

True.  What we will continue to disagree about is what should be done about it.  If the right is able to cobble together one party out of Reform and the Progressive Conservatives federally and the Wild Rose and the Progressive Conservatives in Alberta can do the same, why is it that progressive people can't come to some agreement to stop vote splitting on the progressive side.  Until we get some form of alternative voting to First Past the Post, there should be some sort of agreement that will provide for only one progressive candidate in any riding where the Conservatives have a chance of winning.  I don't care if it is a "primary" like in the United States or some other joint nomination process, but we should reduce the effects of this vote splitting, particularly if it is going to allow mini-Trumps like Doug Ford to have a chance of election.

Pondering

I predict a clean win for Horwath. No recounts necessary. I just don't believe Ontarians will choose Ford.

SocialJustice101

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

If Fords wins, it's a defeat for ALL progressives, whether you're centre-left or left.   The course of government will be MUCH further away from NDP priorities than it was during the OLP reign.  

I think most are aware of this.

Most are aware of this, except for NorthReport, who's unhealthy obsession with the Liberals is hardly consistent with a typical progressive voter.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

You also have to look at age demographics as well as gender. I don't think the PCs can count on the older and not-so-wealthy Baby Boomers any more. There is too much stuff Ford can do and not do in order to make their lives more miserable re: healthcare. I predict a big turnout from Millennials, who are concerned about schools. 

A friend in Toronto gave me a ring, and he says they think Ford is going to shut down hospitals and schools. He lives in Parkdale-High Park, which is normally a Liberal/NDP bunfight, and he says the NDP signs are overwhelming the Liberal ones by quite some margin. I think we can count on this riding to go NDP. The extent by which the NDP beats the Liberals in this riding should indicate the general results in the election. The other scuttlebutt is that the local Liberal campaigns are somewhat demoralized, and felt that Wynne threw them under the bus.

This election has pan-Canadian implications. 
1. If Ford wins, Jason Kenny and Rachel Notley have a big ally in the pipeline debate. If Horwath wins, they will not. 
2. After Valerie Plante, election of an Ontario NDP government will show a structural shift leftward in Central Canada. This means that both Trudeau and Couillard will have to tack more that way to stay in power. If Ford wins, they will be plenty progressive enough, compared to him.

The other thing about the polling and the seat calculation machinations is they have had a riding redistribution along the lines of the federal one, which Ontario still copies according to the Mike Harris Fewer Politicians Act. The ridings have all changed, and although they have the federal profile in their databases, maybe their assumptions may not be strictly accurate in the provincial election sense. There has not been a provincial election through the 124-seat model, and it is possibly inaccurate just to take the polls (not opinion polls but the riding subdivisions) from the old model and plug them into the new. Many people will not have the same choice of candidates, which is generally only 5% of the vote, but when the two parties are in  a statistical tie in the opinion polls that 5% could put one or over the top. 

I think it is clear the NDP still have momentum, and it is now far too late for an NDP bombshell on the scale of #IBelieveRenata.

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

I predict a clean win for Horwath. No recounts necessary. I just don't believe Ontarians will choose Ford.

I hope you are right. I fear you are not.

SocialJustice101

Pondering wrote:

I predict a clean win for Horwath. No recounts necessary. I just don't believe Ontarians will choose Ford.

The majority of Ontarians certainly will not chose Ford.   But he just needs around 37% for a fake "majority."

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Pondering wrote:

I predict a clean win for Horwath. No recounts necessary. I just don't believe Ontarians will choose Ford.

The majority of Ontarians certainly will not chose Ford.   But he just needs around 37% for a fake "majority."

Agreed. I assume that you are one of the minority of Liberals who support PR?

NorthReport

Ontario survived McGuinty and Wynne and no matter what happens on Thursday it will continue to survive.

NorthReport

Dp

SocialJustice101

I strongly support PR.   Canada achieved the most under Liberal minority governments supported by the NDP.

Ciabatta2

Yep, this one is over.  Get ready for four years of exhausting chaos.

Sean in Ottawa

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Yep, this one is over.  Get ready for four years of exhausting chaos.

I don't think this is certain -- it is still close. I do fear the worst but there is a chance.

gadar

NorthReport wrote:

Ontario survived McGuinty and Wynne and no matter what happens on Thursday it will continue to survive.

By the same token , I think Ontario will find it easier to survive another Wynne govt as compared to a Dealer Doug.

Also Canada survived ten years of Harper and Chretien, so I guess you would be ok with ten years of Trudeau, since Canada will continue to survive no matter what happens in the next federal election.

Let me know when you feel comfortable with another Trudeau majority since it wont affect Canada's survival.

SocialJustice101

Let's keep our fingers crossed that the Ford family lawsuit will affect at least 2-3% of voters.  Additionally, more Libs could strategically switch over to the NDP at the last minute.  

Sean in Ottawa

gadar wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Ontario survived McGuinty and Wynne and no matter what happens on Thursday it will continue to survive.

By the same token , I think Ontario will find it easier to survive another Wynne govt as compared to a Dealer Doug.

Also Canada survived ten years of Harper and Chretien, so I guess you would be ok with ten years of Trudeau, since Canada will continue to survive no matter what happens in the next federal election.

Let me know when you feel comfortable with another Trudeau majority since it wont affect Canada's survival.

Survival is a low standard.

We may have concerns about general politics and well being for all but right wing policies may be survivable for a province but not all the people in it. There are people vulnerable enough to die when the right wing brings in brutal policies. Important to remember that.

There are people who did not survive Mike Harris.

JKR

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

If Fords wins, it's a defeat for ALL progressives, whether you're centre-left or left.   The course of government will be MUCH further away from NDP priorities than it was during the OLP reign.  

I think most are aware of this.

Most are aware of this, except for NorthReport, who's unhealthy obsession with the Liberals is hardly consistent with a typical progressive voter.

Like it or not, many on the left, centre-left, and centre have to cooperate with each other to win FPTP elections. Conservatives try to disrupt this cooperation to win phoney FPTP governments.

gadar

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

gadar wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Ontario survived McGuinty and Wynne and no matter what happens on Thursday it will continue to survive.

By the same token , I think Ontario will find it easier to survive another Wynne govt as compared to a Dealer Doug.

Also Canada survived ten years of Harper and Chretien, so I guess you would be ok with ten years of Trudeau, since Canada will continue to survive no matter what happens in the next federal election.

Let me know when you feel comfortable with another Trudeau majority since it wont affect Canada's survival.

Survival is a low standard.

We may have concerns about general politics and well being for all but right wing policies may be survivable for a province but not all the people in it. There are people vulnerable enough to die when the right wing brings in brutal policies. Important to remember that.

There are people who did not survive Mike Harris.

I agree, but for some people politics is a sport. These are usually the people who have no skin in the game.They sit on the sidelines and cheer for the color of the jersey.

And then there are sections of the society who get directly impacted by the govt policies.

And then people from the privileged sections of the society come along and patronise them with shit like

"oh you will survive"

bekayne

progressive17 wrote:

 2. After Valerie Plante, election of an Ontario NDP government will show a structural shift leftward in Central Canada. This means that both Trudeau and Couillard will have to tack more that way to stay in power. If Ford wins, they will be plenty progressive enough, compared to him.

I don't know about that. Who on the left is there to push him?

Pondering

I think the problem in the coming years is that Horwath won't be radical enough for some NDP members.

gadar

Pondering wrote:

I think the problem in the coming years is that Horwath won't be radical enough for some NDP members.

She will be called Liberal, just like Notley

progressive17 progressive17's picture

bekayne wrote:

progressive17 wrote:

 2. After Valerie Plante, election of an Ontario NDP government will show a structural shift leftward in Central Canada. This means that both Trudeau and Couillard will have to tack more that way to stay in power. If Ford wins, they will be plenty progressive enough, compared to him.

I don't know about that. Who on the left is there to push him?

Already Couillard is trying to appear 'progressive' to fight the CAQ, and to try to mop up soft-nationalist and progressive votes who might be thinking of PQ, QS, NDPQ, etc. He can set himself up as the strategic vote against the CAQ, which the NDP seem to have done similarly in Ontario. Say Horwath maintains and extends the 'progressive agenda' set by Wynne, having won. Combined with the victory of Valerie Plante (which will now not be seen as a flash in the pan), Couillard is going to read the tealeaves and see there is a structural shift left going on, which he will want to chase to stay in power. On the other hand, if Ford wins, he will try to pincer the CAQ on the right to show he is a better economic manager, more socially conservative, sell the SAQ, etc.

Pondering

progressive17 wrote:

bekayne wrote:

progressive17 wrote:

 2. After Valerie Plante, election of an Ontario NDP government will show a structural shift leftward in Central Canada. This means that both Trudeau and Couillard will have to tack more that way to stay in power. If Ford wins, they will be plenty progressive enough, compared to him.

I don't know about that. Who on the left is there to push him?

Already Couillard is trying to appear 'progressive' to fight the CAQ, and to try to mop up soft-nationalist and progressive votes who might be thinking of PQ, QS, NDPQ, etc. He can set himself up as the strategic vote against the CAQ, which the NDP seem to have done similarly in Ontario. Say Horwath maintains and extends the 'progressive agenda' set by Wynne, having won. Combined with the victory of Valerie Plante (which will now not be seen as a flash in the pan), Couillard is going to read the tealeaves and see there is a structural shift left going on, which he will want to chase to stay in power. On the other hand, if Ford wins, he will try to pincer the CAQ on the right to show he is a better economic manager, more socially conservative, sell the SAQ, etc.

I can see that happening although Quebec has its own politics.

Ken Burch

gadar wrote:

josh wrote:

So I guess it will be a happy election for you even if Ford is premier.

And the Liberals were at 17 in the Pollara poll, so 18 is not surprising.

 

Did you have any doubts. It will be a celebration of a Con majority disguised as a celebration of  NDP coming second.

Bullshit.  Nobody here wants a Con majority.  And Ford's chances wouldn't be any worse now if the Liberals were still in second.  It goest without saying that there was never a possibility of the OLP coming from behind to win this time.   Nobody government gets re-elected when it's 20 points down in the polls three months before an election.

clambake

Pondering wrote:

I predict a clean win for Horwath. No recounts necessary. I just don't believe Ontarians will choose Ford.

I admire your optimism and hope like i've never hoped before that you are right

NorthReport
gadar

Ken Burch wrote:

gadar wrote:

josh wrote:

So I guess it will be a happy election for you even if Ford is premier.

And the Liberals were at 17 in the Pollara poll, so 18 is not surprising.

 

Did you have any doubts. It will be a celebration of a Con majority disguised as a celebration of  NDP coming second.

Bullshit.  Nobody here wants a Con majority.  And Ford's chances wouldn't be any worse now if the Liberals were still in second.  It goest without saying that there was never a possibility of the OLP coming from behind to win this time.   Nobody government gets re-elected when it's 20 points down in the polls three months before an election.

Nobody? Not a single poster? 

Claiming to know every ones intentions is truly bullshit.

Maybe I want a Con majority, how about that.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

She will be called Liberal, just like Notley

..notley is called captured not liberal. as in horgan is captured by lng.

Northern-54

I feel Notley is doing a good job for her province.  The province relies heavily on one product.  There needs to be another  way of exporting it or the province is forced to sell at whatever price American buyers set.  This is an untenable position.  I can't see any Alberta premier not wanting a pipeline.  If they had this position, their party would be lucky to get 2% of the vote in a provincial electoin.

Pondering

Northern-54 wrote:

I feel Notley is doing a good job for her province.  The province relies heavily on one product.  There needs to be another  way of exporting it or the province is forced to sell at whatever price American buyers set.  This is an untenable position.  I can't see any Alberta premier not wanting a pipeline.  If they had this position, their party would be lucky to get 2% of the vote in a provincial electoin.

There doesn't have to be another way to export it. They can continue exporting through existing channels. The pipeline doesn't appear viable without government support. I think Kinder Morgan was looking for a way out. With the oil industry it is all about who will be left holding the bag and it will already be taxpayers. We are going to have to pay to decommission these oil pipelines. The industry has no intention of taking the pipelines out of the ground when they are done.

gadar

I have seen Notley called a Liberal around here. That is one of the reasons I have come to a conclusion that for some people NDP is good only as long as it doesnt beat the Cons.

NorthReport
josh

That sucks.  But pollsters can be, and have been, wrong on several races in recent years.

NorthReport

Last minute shift?

NDP 38%

PCs 38%

Libs 17%

The Maclean’s-Pollara Ontario election poll shows Doug Ford and Andrea Horwath in photo finish

Paul Wells: With a day to go before Ontario votes, the NDP and PCs are all tied up with the Liberals trailing far behind

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-p...

josh
NorthReport

Ipsos 

PCs 39%

NDP 36%

Libs 19%

Final Ipsos poll suggests Doug Ford and PCs headed for a majority

https://globalnews.ca/news/4256612/ontario-election-ipsos-poll-doug-ford...

NorthReport

Pollara

Party / Jun 4 / Jun 5 / Difference

NDP / 37% / 38% / Up 1% 

PCs / 39% / 38% / Down 1%

Libs / 17% / 17% / No Change

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2018#Campaign_pe...

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport
josh

1 in 10 voters remain undecided.  That’s where the hope lies.  Apparently the Liberal vote has a 17% bottom.

Ken Burch

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

If Fords wins, it's a defeat for ALL progressives, whether you're centre-left or left.   The course of government will be MUCH further away from NDP priorities than it was during the OLP reign.  

I think most are aware of this.

Most are aware of this, except for NorthReport, who's unhealthy obsession with the Liberals is hardly consistent with a typical progressive voter.

That's damn near slander to accuse a poster on this board of being a closet PC.  What possible grounds to you have for such a claim?

And why are you still upset about the NDP gains when the Dippers are doing better than the Liberals would have been had THEY stayed in second place.  The OLP was doomed to be voted out this year, and nothing could have prevented their defeat.

 

Ken Burch

gadar wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

gadar wrote:

josh wrote:

So I guess it will be a happy election for you even if Ford is premier.

And the Liberals were at 17 in the Pollara poll, so 18 is not surprising.

 

Did you have any doubts. It will be a celebration of a Con majority disguised as a celebration of  NDP coming second.

Bullshit.  Nobody here wants a Con majority.  And Ford's chances wouldn't be any worse now if the Liberals were still in second.  It goest without saying that there was never a possibility of the OLP coming from behind to win this time.   Nobody government gets re-elected when it's 20 points down in the polls three months before an election.

Nobody? Not a single poster? 

Claiming to know every ones intentions is truly bullshit.

Maybe I want a Con majority, how about that.

OK, let me put it this way...you've got no reason to imply that anyone ELSE here is a closet Tory.  It's not a sign of Tory sympathies to be cheering the fact that the ONDP has moved into a dead heat in the polls and has a real chance of winning this year, in a year where it was never possible that Wynne's government could be re-elected. 

NorthReport

The best thing to do Ken is to ignore these Liberal bullshitters. Liberals are obviously having an unmitigated disaster with the Ontario election and are freaking out it is going to spill over into the federal domain next year which it probably will. It is on page one of the liberal party handbook for discussion groups: if anyone is being effective in attacking The Liberals constant campaigning on left, but governing on the right approach to politics, accuse them of being Right-wing conservatives. Every election we see these same sleazy Liberal tactics  

It has been my experience with this Liberal nonsense that silence can be golden

NorthReport

Dp

Pondering

The polls all have a margin of error of a few percentage points.

The polls assume turnouts are no different than average. I predict a higher turn out that will favor the NDP because Ford is so polarizing. People who normally tend to think "all politicians are alike" or "my vote won't count" are not thinking that this election.

Ford hardliners were always going to come out. Soft supporters might not. They won't vote NDP, but they can stay home.

SocialJustice101

Ken Burch wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

If Fords wins, it's a defeat for ALL progressives, whether you're centre-left or left.   The course of government will be MUCH further away from NDP priorities than it was during the OLP reign.  

I think most are aware of this.

Most are aware of this, except for NorthReport, who's unhealthy obsession with the Liberals is hardly consistent with a typical progressive voter.

That's damn near slander to accuse a poster on this board of being a closet PC.  What possible grounds to you have for such a claim?



And why are you still upset about the NDP gains when the Dippers are doing better than the Liberals would have been had THEY stayed in second place.  The OLP was doomed to be voted out this year, and nothing could have prevented their defeat.

 

Let people draw their own conclusions about the poster in question.   We're on a cusp of a Ford majority, but someone is still talking about the Ontario Liberals, who are effectively not in the running anymore.     I'm not saying this necessarily proves he's a Con troll.   I suppose it's  possible that someone treats political parties as sports teams, as opposed to being vehicles for social progress.

 

NorthReport

I blame the Liberals for attacking the progressive NDP in the dying days of the campaign when the Liberals had no chance whatsoever of winning therefore Liberals created this Doug Ford majority. 

EKOS forecasts a PC majority 

PCs 39%

NDP 35%

Libs 19%

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-predicts-pc-majority/

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