Mighty Middle you seem to be in a state of denial about the unpopularity of Wynne. Because modern elections are primarily driven by party leaders and their popularity, this is an enormous problem for the Liberals. Here are several analyses of why this is the case. Admittedly, these analyses are somewhat older than the polls I cited in the last post, but her popularity has only shown small improvement since these articles were done. The analyses come from several different pollsters, in case there is one you particularly don't like.
Perhaps, you are out of touch with regular people, like Wynne, as the analyses suggest. Or maybe, you know that, like her political team, you already know what the situation is and that the lack of trust in her is "the kiss of death". Maybe you're even part of that political team.
Polls by three different firms in recent months suggest that just 13 to 16 per cent of voters approve of the job Wynne's doing. One pollster, Forum Research, called it "the lowest value we have ever recorded for a sitting premier."
The conventional wisdom of the moment is voters are angry about the skyrocketing price of hydro. The government's messages "didn't seem to jibe with what people were feeling in terms of their concerns about pocketbook issues," admits one senior Wynne adviser
There's no doubt hydro is a big issue — so much so that tackling electricity costs will be the Liberals' chief priority in the upcoming budget. But a bill that arrives once a month can't alone account for the extent of disapproval for Wynne. There must be something more fundamental.
Liberal sources tell me their own polling finds Wynne is scoring badly with voters on such measures as "understanding the pressures in my daily life" and "understanding my situation."
In short, she's seen as out of touch with regular people.
The political team around Wynne knows this is the kiss of death for a politician. They also know that if the Liberals are to have any hope of winning the election in June of 2018, Wynne must do more than just say she "feels your pain" — she must prove it. ...
Other pundits are all but writing Wynne off.
"She has lost that credibility with voters and once it's gone it's almost impossible to get back," said Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet Research. ...
"There comes a point with governments when there may be little they can do to change circumstances, particularly after a party has been in power for a long time," said Shachi Kurl, executive director of the Angus Reid Institute.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/kathleen-wynne-polling-ontario-app...
Wynne remains the most unpopular premier in the country.
Kathleen Wynne doesn’t seem to be gaining any traction among voters in Ontario as she remains the most unpopular premier in Canada with a provincial election slated for June, according to a new poll.
A survey by Angus Reid Institute, released on Wednesday, found Wynne’s approval rating is stagnant at 19 per cent, just one percentage point lower than numbers reported in December, and seven percentage points more than her lowest recorded rating of 12 per cent in March of last year.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4099335/kathleen-wynne-unpopular-premier-poll/
Another earlier poll even suggests that Wynne could lose in her own riding.
With the province seemingly ready to vote out the Liberal party in the upcoming June election, a Forum Research poll conducted on March 11th, the day after Doug Ford was announced the PC leader, concludes the 416, which is traditionally a Liberal stronghold, could start turning Tory.
http://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/03/13/wynne-election-poll/
My personal opinion is that it is not scandals that have made Wynne the most unpopular premier in the country, although they helped. Nor is it simply the desire for change: Ontario and Alberta governments stayed in power for over 40 years in the past. It's primarily the loss of trust due to the promises made in the 2014 government that made it seem her government was going to carry-out major left-wing oriented reforms followed by three years of austerity. That's why even though the Ontario economy is growing and unemployment is down, people don't trust her. So that's why new promises and in some cases actions, such as the $15 minimum wage, are ignored because, people do not believe the new promises will be implemented based on their past experience.
Umm......
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2018#Opinion_polls
That poll makes no sense and is pulled out of reality. When a poll uses the term “Ford nation” don’t expect me to give it a spit of credibility. According to that poll, the pc are running at 49% and the liberals and ONDP are tied.
Moneyball
This is fascinating and if the Latest poll out today showing the NDP at 33% is accurate it shows that the NDP could win
https://globalnews.ca/news/4200920/darrell-bricker-moneyball-ontario-election/
And when Forum had the Liberals first in 2015 election weren't you the one saying that Forum is in bed with Liberals? Now 3 years later, you've thrown out the window embracing Forum as gospel!
Translation the only polls you believe are the ones that only show the NDP in a positive light. Anything else is not to be believed.
LOL! That’s funny MM.
To me polls are like the Portuguese football team or the NDP. When they win, I somehow feel special and have some kind of entitlement that I haven’t figured out what it is yet. And when they lose, it’s just a stupid game people waste time on and I probably wasted my time. With 3 parties, everyone but the NDP has their turn at the winners podium but every couple of generations the NDP gets their turn where the voters actually consider socialism
Well it is terrfic that you admit you are bias when it comes to polls. Now if only Ken Burch could admit that as well.
LOL again!
I never even attempted to imply I’m biased! Polls are biased and skewed, no argument there. My logical explanation would be that if these polls that are slanted against the ONDP are showing them with high numbers, then the ONDP are realistically even higher.
I don't have bias in terms of polls. The trend in almost ALL polls, though, has been that the NDP has been gaining ground, at worst tied with the Liberals, ahead of them in most, while the PC's have been stable. And that wasn't the latest poll you're showing. You've been posting that same graphic for weeks now. It's from an OLD poll. There's no continuous finding that a large bloc of ONDP supporters are actually planning to vote PC. Identifying as a member of "Ford Nation" doesn't mean anything more than identifying as a member of the alienated working-class. It doesn't equate to support of Ford's ideas or a commitment to vote for the guy, and it's not a rejection of the ONDP.
I admit I prefer seeing polls showing the parties I support doing better than polls showing the parties I support doing badly...which is the case for everyone, including you.
Here's the reality...there is NO recent preponderance of polls showing the OLP doing better than the ONDP, OR supporting the argument that voting OLP is the only way to stop Ford. And the plain and simple fact is, you know it.
That's why you keep running that outdated and meaningless graph about identification with "Ford Nation". You are desperate to create a narrative that Ford is surging, the NDP is collapsing, a lot of NDP supporters are secretly reactionary, and therefore that voting Liberal is the only way to stop the guy. Problem is, nothing in polling reality comes anywhere close to supporting that narrative.
If you want to make an argument that people should support the party you prefer, fine, make it. Make it on the merits of that party as you see them. There's no excuse for you attempting to make it by making bogus insinuations that a large chunk of traditional ONDP supporters back Rob Ford, that the number of such people is growing(the polls prove that it is shrinking rapidly) and that those still loyal to the ONDP have an obligation to vote OLP out of the delusional notion that the OLP can beat Ford but the ONDP can't.
Whatever bias I may have pales the bias you seem to have against acknowledging the fact that your argument, your "vote for us ONE more time" argument, is no longer grounded in reality.
Nowhere in any of my replies did I ever suggest you need to vote Liberal to stop Ford. All I have said since day one is that Ford Nation is comprised of Liberal and NDP supporters.
All your reply shows Ken is that you are still in deep denial about Ford Nation appeal
The ONLY poll that comes close to supporting your argument is the Nanos poll...a poll released three weeks ago. It's the ONLY one that shows the Liberals running in a solid second and the NDP out of contention. Given the degree to which it is at variance with every other trend, and given that it was taken well before Horwath's solid victory in the debates. it can be characterized as an out come that that was and is a "rogue poll"-it was an anomalous outcome that has no relation to the actual level of support each party has and the potential support each party could potentially add to its current total.
You forgot Ekos that also shows Liberals second ahead of the NDP
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/04/ontario-pcs-enjoy-clear-lead/
I'm not in deep denial about "Ford Nation appeal". It's just that several of us have demonstrated to you that "Ford Nation appeal" is not synonymous with liklihood to vote PC, that "2014 NDP voters" is not the same thing as "traditional NDP supporter", and that the string of polls taken since that graphic from that one poll you keep posting demonstrate that the rise in NDP support means that any support for Ford among NDP voters is rapidly declining.
I agree that a demagogue(he's not a populist, he's a demagogue) can take votes from any sector-that's what demagogue's specialize in doing.
However, the SERIES OF POLLS showing flatlined-to-slow declining level in PC support, accompanied by a dramatic rise in ONDP support, indicate that the appeal of the demagogue is declining. They also prove that the claim that the OLP is the only party that could stop Ford is now utterly bogus.
The ONDP has responded appropriately to the "Ford Nation" challenge: It has reconnected to those within its ranks who were tempted by Ford as an expression of their outsider statuse, it has gain votes from those people who always vote Liberal because they believed that only the Liberals could beat the PC's, and it is gaining the votes of people who hadn't backed major parties in the past because the party is running on a program this time that actually connects with their need.
I've addressed your point. The ONDP has addressed your point. What else do you want from everybody about this? If you aren't still pushing the discredited idea that somehow the OLP is the only party that can stop the PC's, what ARE you saying here? And what will satisfy you that you no longer have to keep posting that graphic and spamming a myth about ONDP voters?
What, in short, do you want here?
Former card carrying NDPer and Jack Layton supporter (who supported him in the leadership) is now openly supporting Ford, and using his bully pulpit to convert other dippers into the Ford column.
In fact he is trolling neighbourhood in Brampton to turn those ridings PC.
Sometimes silence is golden!
Amen sister
You forgot Ekos that also shows Liberals second ahead of the NDP
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/04/ontario-pcs-enjoy-clear-lead/
Talk about the pot calling the kettle black! You have polls that you love to quote. By the way, your Ekos poll is dated April 6th and was conducted from March 20 to April 5th. Kind of out-of-date.
The May 9th Forum poll found:
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/4ad512ae-7c7c-4479-9756-761f932e0c59F...
You don't like Forum. How about Ipsos from May 8th:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Global-News-Ontario-Vote-May-8-2018
Don't like those results? How about the Abacus poll conducted from April 30th to May 6 ?
http://onpulse.ca/blog/new-data-as-first-debate-looms-ford-and-pcs-dip-a...