Another Ontario by-election

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David Young
Another Ontario by-election

Niagara Falls Liberal M.P.P. Kim Craitor has just announced that he is resigning his seat in the Ontario Legislature.

Could this be a sign that Liberals are becoming less and less confident of their chances in the next provincial election?

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David Young

This looks like another seat the Liberals could easily lose.

LIB    16,721   35.9%

PC     16,170   34.8%

NDP   12,233   26.3%

GRN       754     1.6%

LTN        214     0.4%

Only a 551-vote margin of victory over the P.C. candidate, with the NDP less than 4500 votes behind.

Another Kitchener-Waterloo or London West in the making?

 

janfromthebruce

exactly David, and FYI this was the closest election result in 2011. So the liberal MPP sounds like he was very independed minded and walked the line with education workers against regulation 115 - the regulation that enforced terms of work and removed collective bargaining.

And now that premier Wynne libs are getting in bed with PC Hudak party to pass the anti union bill to help EllisDon not have to use union labour on their construction sites, looks like a super opportunity for the NDP here. Labour comes together in solidarity building trades and public sector workers to show their dislike of the anti worker bent of the liberals.

David Young

Are there any rumblings about anyone else jumping ship from the Liberal caucus?

 

adma

Well, 2011 was three-way close for a good reason: the NDP ran a "star candidate", former Fort Erie mayor Wayne Redekop.  But even with Redekop's "natural advantage" factored out, if the byelection trends continue, this'd look like deliriously low hanging fruit.
And likewise, if trends continue, the Liberals are headed for third-place ignominy once again.

Of course, as for the PCs, there's the inevitable "Peter Shurman should run here" jokes.

David Young

Has Redekop remained active with the Ontario NDP since 2011?  Would he be the best hope for the NDP to take this seat?

Or would this riding need a new candidate, like Kitchener-Waterloo or London West?

 

janfromthebruce

How about letting the local riding association figure that one out - seriously. I always think that a contested nomination is good and also that a candidate who had a good result in the last election provides for name recognition and better results. Also, in Ontario often great candidates in the NDP have to run 2 or 3 times to win in their riding. Just ask Howard Hamption who ran 3x before finally winning his riding.

adma

janfromthebruce wrote:

Also, in Ontario often great candidates in the NDP have to run 2 or 3 times to win in their riding. Just ask Howard Hamption who ran 3x before finally winning his riding.

Or, next door in Welland, Mel Swart.

 

 

Aristotleded24

adma wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

Also, in Ontario often great candidates in the NDP have to run 2 or 3 times to win in their riding. Just ask Howard Hamption who ran 3x before finally winning his riding.

Or, next door in Welland, Mel Swart.

Or folks like Irene Mathyssen and John Rafferty.

Wilf Day

Aristotleded24 wrote:

adma wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

Also, in Ontario often great candidates in the NDP have to run 2 or 3 times to win in their riding. Just ask Howard Hamption who ran 3x before finally winning his riding.

Or, next door in Welland, Mel Swart.

Or folks like Irene Mathyssen and John Rafferty.

Or Jack Layton (1993, 1997, 2004.)

toaster

I believe Kim Craitor didn't even mention that he was part of the Liberal Party on any of his singnage or brochures in the last election.  It was more of a Craitor win than a Liberal win.

 

Also, are we really going to see another round of by-elections before a General election? 

Brachina

 That would be awesome and hopefully lead to an NDP win.

adma

Come to think of it, I may be mistaken, but wasn't Kim Craitor an "ex-NDPer" sort of Liberal?

Robo

"Sort" can be defined in many ways.  Kim Craitor was never an NDP member, so I cannot see how he would be described accurately as "ex-NDP".  He had been President of the Niagara Falls and District Labour Council (there is now one Niagara Region Labour Council) and many people presumed he was an NDP member by virute of holding that position.  He spoke in the local newspaper from time to time on labour issues, but would let you know that he was not an NDP member if you ever asked him.  As far as I am aware, he did nothing while a backbench Liberal to even introduce a Private Members Bill on any labour issue.

adma

Should Thornhill be included in this thread as "yet another"?  (Though the NDP'd be totally out of contention there--except, maybe, in grabbing Weislederian nomination headlines like in the past)

Robo

Kathleen Wynne has announced the preferred Liberal candidate for the upcoming Niagara Falls provincial by-election, despite another person announcing his intention to seek the Liberal nomination a few days earlier. (Imposing a candidate on the local riding association worked out so well for the Liberals in London West...)

The only candidate for the Green Party provincial nomination in Niagara Falls is a former PC supporter.

Robo

Wayne Gates was the first person to announce an intention to seek the NDP nomination in the upcoming Niagara Falls provincial by-election today. He is quoted as saying that he expects others to seek the nomination as well.

Gates placed fourth in the City Council Race in the  2010 municipal election in Niagara Falls (eight are elected city-wide), while the already nominated Liberal candidate finished sixth. The already nominated PC candidate finished first in the Regional Councillor race in the same city. (An interesting note - the people of Niagara Falls also elected other Maves's to City Council and the Public School Board.)

Robo

The Liberals have formally nominated their candidate, at a nomination meeting attended by 40 people. The locally-reported rumour is that the by-election will be held on Feb 13th. If the timing is to be that quick, I am guessing that the Liberals are hoping to catch the NDP flat-footed, as no NDP candidate has yet been nominated.

Skinny Dipper

The NDP could win Niagara.  The party has no chance at winning Thornhill.

adma

Robo wrote:
If the timing is to be that quick, I am guessing that the Liberals are hoping to catch the NDP flat-footed, as no NDP candidate has yet been nominated.

Yet.  But the fact that Gates is offering himself for nomination indicates that the NDP's all-but-ready/prepared...

Robo

So, just to guess why Krago posted these lovely maps today in particular, I note that the Niagara Falls and Thornhill provincial by-elections have been called for February 13th.

If only Krago could do two more insets on the "built up" parts of Fort Erie and NOTL like the Niagara Falls inset, I would be ever so pleased...

Krago

Niagara Falls

 

Thornhill

scott16

i have been reading the comments on the St. Catherine's Standard and the Niagara falls review and it seems that if Wayne Gates is the NDP candidate, we have a good chance? Does anyone know more?

adma

I spotted a poll today that went 36-28-28 for PC-Lib-NDP in NF...

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

adma wrote:

I spotted a poll today that went 36-28-28 for PC-Lib-NDP in NF...

Here is a report on that poll.

felixr

With results that close, all you need is a little momentum and a killer ground game at the end.

Skinny Dipper

Krago wrote:

Thornhill

I'll be blunt.  Jewish voters went mainly to Conservative Peter Shurman in the last provincial election.  This is shown on with the blue streak going along Bathurst Street in the middle of the map.

The Conservatives have nominated Gila Martow; the Liberals have nominated Sandra Yeung Racco.  I think that the by-election race will essentially be an ethnic battle with voters choosing based on direct or indirect ethnic affiliation.

janfromthebruce

Robo wrote:

Wayne Gates is now the nominated NDP candidate in the Niagara Falls provincial by-election.

There were many more people at this nomination meeting than the 40 who attended the Liberal nomination meeting, as noted in Post #17 above. So, of course, the attendance at the NDP nomination meeting is not noted in this newspaper story...

I saw pics on tweeter and someone there reported over 200 ppl, and standing room only. No kidding it wasn't reported in the press. And Forum research is a liberal outfit in which they overpoll in liberal areas.

Krago

Oops, Robo.  I think you meant to post this link:  Wayne Gates earns NDP nomination

There also this:  Gates vows to take care of business

And this:  NDP picks Hackelberg as Thornhill by-election candidate

Robo

Wayne Gates is now the nominated NDP candidate in the Niagara Falls provincial by-election.

There were many more people at this nomination meeting than the 40 who attended the Liberal nomination meeting, as noted in Post #17 above. So, of course, the attendance at the NDP nomination meeting is not noted in this newspaper story...

felixr

Krago wrote:

Oops, Robo.  I think you meant to post this link:  Wayne Gates earns NDP nomination

There also this:  Gates vows to take care of business

And this:  NDP picks Hackelberg as Thornhill by-election candidate

Is it Hackle or Heckleberg, the article can't seem to decide. It reports that last time she was picked so as not to raise any hackles, after Barry Weisleder was dumped.

Robo

janfromthebruce wrote:

I saw pics on tweeter and someone there reported over 200 ppl, and standing room only. No kidding it wasn't reported in the press...

 

The Facebook page with photos from the NDP nomination meeting (and another photo here) makes it apparent that there were many more people there than 40 people that attended the Liberal nomination meeting. I guess that local people must have felt that nominating the Liberal candidate wasn't as interesting...

Robo

This story from Global News notes that the Tories are running a radio ad in the Niagara Falls by-election attacking the NDP candidate and barely mentioning the Liberals. I guess their thought is: why bother attacking the third plkace candidate?

Robo

This link to the CBC story on the Niagara Falls by-election is interesting.  But, I will say that it is clear that the Liberals are in third place in the "sign war" -- I am not sure where (other than relying on the claims of the Liberal candidate) the CBC has determined that this is a three-way race. Having knocked on doors and seen which private properties have lawn signs, it seem to me to clearly be a race between the NDP and PC candidates.

 

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Geoff

If it is truly is a race between the Tories and the NDP, I wonder how many Liberals will be out knocking on doors for the NDP in the name of strategic voting.  Liberals like to play the strategic vote card when they think they have the best chance to defeat the conservative candidate. Let's see how strategic they really are.  Will they go orange or split the vote?

josh

"On Thursday, Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said Liberal hopes of winning Thornhill are dimming thanks in part to Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s recent trip to Israel, which was well received in a riding where 40 per cent of residents are Jewish. . . . . Three weeks ago, Martow was at 44 per cent to 36 per cent for Yeung Racco. In that earlier poll, the Greens were at 10 per cent and the NDP at 7 per cent."

So, the Harper trip was worth all of 2 points. Well within the margin of error.

Stockholm

One of the many thinks that irritates me about that Bozinoff idiot at Forum is his totally unsubstantiated theories about political trends. How exactly does he know that Harper's trip to Israel is having any impact whatsoever on how people are voting in the provincial by-election in Thornhill? Did his poll actually segment the responses by religion/ethnicity? Did he actually ask a question in his poll about what people thought of Harper's trip to Israel? If so, so he also ask people if hearing about Harper's trip to Israel had any impact whatsoever on how they planned to vote in the provincial byelection? I suspect the answers are No, No and No.

I rest my case.

NorthReport

Forum is rapidly turning out to be the jokesters of Canadian political polling. 

Thornhill and Niagara Falls

http://warrenkinsella.com/2014/02/thornhill-and-niagara-falls-check-the-...

NorthReport

Kathleen Wynne on campaign-style blitz before byelections

Premier Kathleen Wynne has embarked upon a four-day, 13-city barnstorming blitz as her Liberals look destined to lose two key byelections next week.

New Democrat MPP Gilles Bisson (Timmins—James Bay) said Wynne was on “a nakedly partisan campaign-style tour” while many in Ontario are still suffering from an economy yet to fully recover after the recession.

“The Liberals may as well be shouting into a megaphone that they are more interested in their own jobs than jobs for hardworking families,” said Bisson.

Wynne’s tour, which is paid for by the Ontario Liberal Party, comes as the latest ForumResearch polls forecast trouble for the Grits in next Thursday’s byelections.

Forum found the NDP with a slight lead over the Conservatives in Niagara Falls, which had been represented by the Liberals, and the Tories ahead of the Grits in PC-held Thornhill by a healthy margin.

She will be campaigning in Niagara Falls on Saturday and at a rally at Concord’s Riviera Convention Centre in the riding of Thornhill on Sunday night.

Her tour also takes her to Mississauga, Burlington, Stoney Creek, Kitchener-Waterloo, Milton, Newmarket, Barrie, and Gwillimbury.

The Liberals are using the trip as a trial run for an election that could come in May or June if their spring budget is defeated.


http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/02/07/kathleen_wynne_on_camp...

Robo

This is what Tory desperation looks like. The Tories clearly are worried about the NDP. There were NDP canvassers is dozens of polls yesterday, identifying new supporters and new sign locations. More are needed in the days to come -- it's just actual NDP volunteers that should come in, not Tory staffers posing as New Democrats...

NorthReport

Well, don't be too harsh on them, as they are just following instructions from the PMO...er their head office.

But keep you eye open for the real snakes in the grass - the Liberals and their CBC/Toronto Star cheering sections.

edmundoconnor

Niagara Falls will be downplayed if it does go NDP. Witness Bozinoff saying the seat will likely go back to being Liberal next election. Not that any of the non-informed nonsense he spouts is worth anything (he apparently will say and do anything to get his picture in the paper), but it is symptomatic of a larger mindset. If the NDP looks like it will get even a minority government, expect a full-blown air war, with all the familiar suspects. The NDP is going to get smoked in an air war, but the trick is to not play that game. Build up an excellent ground campaign, and you'll win the vast majority of the time. There is no substitute for knocking on doors, and talking to people.

edmundoconnor

.

Robo

It is interesting that the Niagara Falls Review, part of the Sun chain, has not carried any news on the Forum poll results.

NorthReport

Tories launch anti-union attack on NDP in Niagara Falls

The Progressive Conservatives have launched a last minute all-out attack on unions as the clock winds down on Thursday’s byelection in Niagara Falls.

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/02/11/tories_launch_antiunio...

NorthReport
nicky

New Forum polls:

 

N Falls

N 48

C  33

L 17

I understand NDP private polling has it much closer

Thornhill

(Don't ask)

Stockholm

Yeah Forum's accurace is often very hit and miss. In Kitchener-Waterloo they had the NDP leading by 16 points 42-26-26 and when the votes were counted catherine Fife won 40-32-24 - and 8 point margin. I suspect the NDP will win NF by a more modest 5/6 point spread - not 15.

genstrike

NorthReport wrote:

Tories launch anti-union attack on NDP in Niagara Falls

The Progressive Conservatives have launched a last minute all-out attack on unions as the clock winds down on Thursday’s byelection in Niagara Falls.

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/02/11/tories_launch_antiunio...

From the article:

Quote:
“It is clear that Wayne Gates doesn’t want to represent Niagara Falls residents. He wants the union to take over the NDP led by former union leader Buzz Hargrove,” he said, referring to the former Canadian Auto Workers president.

Buzz Hargrove take over the NDP?  That's hilarious.

NorthReport

What a clown. Laughing

Hudak spends day before by-election attacking Tory's

The day before two Ontario by-elections, Ontario PC Leader Tim Hudak made the news for attacking a Tory, not the Liberals.

 

http://www.torontosun.com/videos/3193328422001

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