Did NDP-Liberal vote-splitting deliver the PCs a majority in Ontario?
A day before the Ontario election, Nathalie Des Rosiers, the Liberal candidate for Ottawa-Vanier, issued a warning: A vote for the New Democratic Party was "a vote for Doug Ford.”
People may have listened. Ms. Des Rosiers won her race – one of just seven Liberal seats left in the province.
In the coming days, we’ll hear much about what, exactly, clinched this election for Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives. Tax cuts, stagnant jobs, buck-a-beers and lower gas prices, maybe – but given the Liberals’ historic collapse, did an NDP-Liberal split vote have an effect?
Let’s do some math. Mr. Ford’s campaign delivered 76 seats, far more than the 63 necessary to clinch a majority. Other parties would have had to siphon off 14 ridings to bring the PCs down to 62 seats, one shy of a majority.
As it turns out, the PCs won 34 ridings where the NDP-plus-Liberal vote outnumbered the PC vote. That’s well beyond the 14 seats necessary to deny the PCs a majority.