Ontario 2011 election: the aftermath

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edmundoconnor
Ontario 2011 election: the aftermath

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Lord Palmerston

Not a good night for my MPP Rosario Marchese who barely hung onto his "safe" riding of Trinity-Spadina. While Olivia Chow got 35,601 votes in the federal election, Marchese got 19,806 votes.  He lacks Olivia's "star power" and despite being around for more than 20 years, he is the lowest-profile of the NDP MPPs in Toronto.  I hope he has seen the writing on the wall and steps aside for someone new in the next election.

I'm happy however that Jonah Schein won Davenport and that Jagmeet Singh won in Bramalea-Gore-Malton.  They are both young and energetic with community activist credentials and will both make great MPPs.

edmundoconnor

A few thoughts, in no particular order:

  1. The Greens had a bad, bad election. Sliding from 8% to under 3% brings them perilously close to have to duke it out in the basement with the libertarians, the communists, and others. Schreiner and the Greens can complain all they like about being shut out of the leader's debate, but they can't complain of being shut out of the media. I saw plenty of balanced coverage given to the Greens, and it turns out the voters don't much like what they have to say. Oh, and having your candidate in Eglinton Lawrence refuse to print flyers because they kill trees may be admirably principled, it doesn't help the Green image.
  2. Outside of TB, SSM and Sudbury, the Liberals are shut out of Northern Ontario. Where they lost, they lost badly. When incumbents like Bartolucci go, the Liberals will have a very difficult time keeping Sudbury and elsewhere.
  3. While the NDP didn't make all the gains it wanted to or expected to, I would point to places like Scarborough Southwest. Twelve months ago, if you told anyone that the NDP would get over 10,000 votes in SSW in the Ontario election, they would have thought you divorced from reality. And yet that is precisely what happened. With a well-organized campaign, great signage, and good planning, the Bruce Budd campaign proved the NDP win in May was no fluke. The NDP has shaken voters loose who would have been lifelong Liberals. It is our duty now to convince them to become habitual NDP voters.
  4. I am forever indebted to Rosario Marchese from keeping Sarah Thomson away from anything resembling power.
  5. I don't think there's a New Democrat in the province who doesn't feel badly for Paul Ferreira. When I saw him at the party last night, he was keeping it together, but he was obviously distraught and inconsolable. He was sandbagged by a councillor (Frances Nunziata) who threw everything behind Albanese to stop Paul, and by the Liberal campaign carpet-bombing the riding with signs and negative lit.
  6. I am so very, very pleased to see Jagmeet Singh get elected. He's going to do a lot of good things.

Aristotleded24

I wonder if [url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ph7KzILp07U]ads like these[/url] had any impact on supressing the NDP vote?

lil.Tommy

... I was hoping he was not going to run again this time, simply because hes been around for so long that the party really did need a young (preferably female and or ethnic) candidate to replace him. I thought someone like Karen Sun, and still do think she would be a good candidate. Hopefully he had a wakeup call and gets out there more and is more active, hes a fantastic and passionate speaker and has a lot to offer in that regard. But its time for change up here.

I have been saying it all over the place, the Liberals played the scare-everyone-that-the-tories-will-eat-your-babies-if-elected campaign, and it almost took Trinity-Spadina (i was personally scare-mongered by Sarah Thompson), Davenport was close and we lost York South-Weston (alrough Xtra has an article that states there was an agressive anti-paul homophobic campaign being waged against him, which wouldn't surprise me at all coming from the older, italian community). If the Tories had been lead by Elliott i think the NDP and Tories would have done much better in the 416/905, more along the lines of the Federal election.

Retrospect eh, but anyone have any idea if we had stronger candidates in Windsor and Thunder Bay that they would have fallen to the NDP? Did the party even actively try and recruit some big names, like say Ron Jones (member? supporter i know). The union endorsement helped the liberals there obviously as did Bombardiers jobs in TB 

Lord Palmerston

I agree Tommy, Karen Sun would make a great MPP for Trinity-Spadina. 

Krago

Two comments about Dalton McGuinty's speech last night:

(1)  I'm not a francophone, so take this with a grain of salt, but his French seemed very good.  Possible federal Liberal leader?  It would really cut his commute.

(2)  What does he have on his right cheek?  A friend of mine suggested they are teardrop tattoos, one each for Eves, Tory and Hudak.

Debater

Sarah Thompson made a real impression in this election and nearly beat an incumbent NDP MPP.  Whether one likes her or not, I don't think you can deny she connected with voters.  She may be back next time for a re-match.  Some of the commentators last night were saying that the low results for Marchese may be an indication that voters want him to retire in the next election.  So I think we'll see a new NDP candidate there in 2015.

What I'm most impressed by is the Ottawa area results.  It was a clean sweep for the Liberals in contrast to the Ignatieff federal team.  Ignatieff could only win Ottawa South and Ottawa-Vanier.  Pathetic.

In contrast, McGuinty won every Ottawa riding:  Ottawa South, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Orleans, Ottawa Centre and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.

Debater

Krago, yes, McGuinty is pretty good in French.  I'm not a Francophone either, but the Francophone campaign manager I worked with in Ottawa told me McGuinty's French is one of the reasons he does well with Franco-Ontarians in contrast to the PC's.  Hudak didn't get around to learning French whereas McGuinty has been working on his for years and grew up in Ottawa and went to a bilingual university at Ottawa U.

Unlike Ignatieff who couldn't win in ridings with large Francophone populations like Glengarry-Prescott-Russell or Ottawa-Orleans, McGuinty has held these seats throughout his 3 terms (along with Ottawa-Vanier of course).  I think one of the reasons for this is because there is also residual distrust at the PC's for trying to close the Francophone hospital in Ottawa (the Montfort).

Lord Palmerston

Debater wrote:
Sarah Thompson made a real impression in this election and nearly beat an incumbent NDP MPP.  Whether one likes her or not, I don't think you can deny she connected with voters.  She may be back next time for a re-match.  Some of the commentators last night were saying that the low results for Marchese may be an indication that voters want him to retire in the next election.  So I think we'll see a new NDP candidate there in 2015.

I don't really care for Sarah Thomson, but I agree with Debater.

lil.Tommy

Hmmm I don't find Thompson very inspiring, and she sure did make a connection, i wanted to deck her. I think ya people are starting to get tired of him, but if that were the case he would have lost. That is telling that there is that much NDP in Trinty-Spadina that a "tired-old incumbent" can still win by about 1100 votes. But i agree, 2015 (or for however long they play nice) the NDP will have another candidate in place.

Sarah is an opportunist; it was plain from her run for mayor. She was midly offensive with her run, a very anti-public sector, rather right-wing campaign. I saw her on the TVO debate and she performed well but nothing stellar, i found her on par with Paul Ferrera who was the NDP panelist.

My experience with her is more personal; in the hustings she was pleasant and bubbly and cheerful when she first approached me. Looking me in the eye with a big smile. When i identified as a New Democrat, she turned back to rustling through papers, not so pleasant and started to try and blue-scare me into voting for her. She had name recognition and shes telegenic/photogenic... but i wouldn't go farther than that.

 

edmundoconnor

Debater, I can't really see McGuinty wanting to attach his name to a failed brand like the federal Liberal party. The federal Liberal party is going to take a decade or more to rehabilitate itself (if ever). I don't see McGuinty wanting to take on a fixer-upper. He'd want to walk in as Leader of the Opposition at least. Leader of the third-placed party that is traumatized by its fall from grace? Not likely. When he retires (2014?), the speaking circuit and seats on corporate boards await.

edmundoconnor

I would also point out that for all the talk of Rosario not connecting with voters, he increased his vote percentage-wise and in absolute numbers (he added 1,000 to his 2007 total).

Fidel

Ontario voter turnout lowest since MDCCCLXVII

Hit me again. I'm from Ontario.

We'll have to start a Canadian version of Citizens for Legit Government web site.

edmundoconnor

Debater wrote:

She may be back next time for a re-match.  Some of the commentators last night were saying that the low results for Marchese may be an indication that voters want him to retire in the next election. 

Were these the same 'analysts' that were blithely talking about PHP being a federal Liberal seat?

Debater

edmundoconnor wrote:

Debater, I can't really see McGuinty wanting to attach his name to a failed brand like the federal Liberal party. The federal Liberal party is going to take a decade or more to rehabilitate itself (if ever). I don't see McGuinty wanting to take on a fixer-upper. He'd want to walk in as Leader of the Opposition at least. Leader of the third-placed party that is traumatized by its fall from grace? Not likely. When he retires (2014?), the speaking circuit and seats on corporate boards await.

The federal Liberal party may be able to recapture Official Opposition as early as the next federal election if the NDP does an Ignatieff and picks the wrong leader.  But putting aside that issue until later, I wasn't the one suggesting McGuinty should run for the federal leadership - that was someone else above.  I was just answering a question that yes, according to Francophones I worked with in the Liberal campaign in Ontario this month, McGuinty's French is pretty good and he gets marks from Franco-Ontarians for learning it whereas Tim Hudak still has not.  (and thus I listed above some ridings with large French populations that Mcguinty won that Ignatieff did not).

Hudak on French

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U30NE4IaEWM

Debater

edmundoconnor wrote:

Debater wrote:

She may be back next time for a re-match.  Some of the commentators last night were saying that the low results for Marchese may be an indication that voters want him to retire in the next election. 

Were these the same 'analysts' that were blithely talking about PHP being a federal Liberal seat?

You won't get any argument from me that there were some vapid comments by some of the commentators last night.  They also talked about how Horwath had improved her seat count from the last election, seeming to forget Howard Hampton was leader last time.

Parkdale-High Park was a federal seat under Gerrard Kennedy until just a few months ago, so perhaps they momentarily forgot.  Who knows.

But as you can see above, there are some NDPers who agree Marchese should retire next election.

Stockholm

Debater wrote:

Sarah Thompson made a real impression in this election and nearly beat an incumbent NDP MPP.  Whether one likes her or not, I don't think you can deny she connected with voters.

I for one will deny it. I don't think she (Thomson) personally connected with voters at all. From what i heard if she had knocked on more doors she would have lost by a wider margins. She was quite abrasive and had a very weak and under-resources campaign. The fact that she came close to winning says more about Rosario getting a bit long in the tooth and the Liberals having a much more aggressive 'air war" in the Toronto media market than the NDP could afford. I suspect that ANYONE running for the Liberals would have done just as well as she did - if not better.

Let's keep in mind that Trinity-Spadina has never been a free-ride for the NDP. Olivia Chow lost narrowly in 2004 and won by modest margins in 2006 and 2008 after making a herculean effort. She only won big in May thanks to a total Liberal implosion that clearly didn't happen in the provincial election.

Rosario in TS had been very counter-cyclical to provincial trends. He won by a narrow margin in 1990 while the NDP was sweeping the province. He then INCRASED his margin in 1995 while the NDP was getting crushed. He won by his biggest margin ever in 1999 when the ONDP was reduced to 12.7% of the vote and lost official party status, then he won quite big in 2003 while the ONDP took just 14.7% province wide and it was a Liberal landslide. The in each of the last two elections his margin in TS keeps shrinking while the NDP province wide vote keeps going up!

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Debater wrote:

The federal Liberal party may be able to recapture Official Opposition as early as the next federal election if the NDP does an Ignatieff and picks the wrong leader.  

That made me laugh. None of the possible candidates for the NDP leadership are anywhere close to being like Iggy - a fish riding a bicycle.

Lord Palmerston

edmundoconnor wrote:

I would also point out that for all the talk of Rosario not connecting with voters, he increased his vote percentage-wise and in absolute numbers (he added 1,000 to his 2007 total).

I agree with you about Scarborough.  Bruce Budd had a very good showing in SSW - doubled the vote there.  The problem is that the Liberals were far stronger in this campaign and the Tories much weaker.  And in Rouge River, Neethan Shan came very close.

But I maintain my criticism of Rosario Marchese, even if he gained 1000 votes and 1.5 percentage points, it's really not all that impressive considering the growth of the riding population, the collapse of the Green vote, etc.  Olivia got FIFTEEN THOUSAND more votes than Rosario did.  He's a pretty charming guy in person, but he's more of an old-fashioned "ward-healer" than many NDPers would like to admit.  I think it's time for someone new and energetic.  Like Karen Sun or Desmond Cole.  

Debater

Boom Boom wrote:

Debater wrote:

The federal Liberal party may be able to recapture Official Opposition as early as the next federal election if the NDP does an Ignatieff and picks the wrong leader.  

That made me laugh. None of the possible candidates for the NDP leadership are anywhere close to being like Iggy - a fish riding a bicycle.

They are not as bad, but the NDP is an awkward position.  The 2 major candidates (Topp and Mulcair) both have major drawbacks.

Topp is a very smart man, (and very ruthless too of course!)    Topp is apparently the guy who coached Layton on how to de-capitate Ignatieff so successfully in the English debate.  But Topp, unlike Layton who had many years of elected experience when he became leader, has none.  He has never served as an elected official, let alone in Parliament.  He also does not have the charisma and personality that Latyon had.

On the other hand, Mulcair is the opposite.  Many, many years of elected experience at both the provincial and federal levels, and lots of experience with campaigning to the public.  However, he is not that well-liked by even his own party, the media hates him and have pretty much vowed to do him in, and he appears to rub some members of the public the wrong way with his big ego.

Meanwhile, some of the other candidates, like Paul Dewar, while having potential, have other challenges (eg. Dewar admits he is not fluent in French).

So it will be interesting to see how it goes.  And since the NDP is choosing its leader first, the Liberals may have the advantage (if they are smart enough to do!) of picking their new leader after seeing who it is that the NDP chooses, and choosing the new Liberal leader to balance off the strengths and weaknesses of whoever the NDP picks.  (Eg. if the NDP picks leader 'A', the Liberals can decide, that means it would be good for us to select leader 'B' etc.)

Krago

The Socialist Party got 571 votes while running in five seats.  The Communist Party got 1,194 votes from nine candidates.

In the 28 ridings with both a Libertarian and a Freedom (Objectivist) name on the ballot, the Libertarians prevailed 26-2.

ghoris

Debater wrote:

What I'm most impressed by is the Ottawa area results.  It was a clean sweep for the Liberals in contrast to the Ignatieff federal team.  Ignatieff could only win Ottawa South and Ottawa-Vanier.  Pathetic.

In contrast, McGuinty won every Ottawa riding:  Ottawa South, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Orleans, Ottawa Centre and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.

"Clean sweep", eh? How is Glengarry-Prescott-Russell an "Ottawa riding" while Nepean-Carleton and Carleton-Mississippi Mills are not? Never let the facts get in the way of a good argument, I suppose.

Debater

Interesting commentary written a few days ago by Chantal Hébert on why having McGuinty as Ontario Premier is viewed favourably in Quebec:

 

 

Like other past Ontario premiers who were fluent in French, Dalton McGuinty has more presence in Quebec than the average out-of-province politician and certainly more than the veteran New Democrats who grace the benches of a Quebec-dominated official Opposition.

McGuinty and Charest hardly see eye-to-eye on every federal-provincial issue.

They defend contrary interests in the matter of an upcoming redistribution of the seats in Commons and they disagree over the advent of a single national securities regulator.

But they share a central Canada perspective; they have built a stronger rapport with each other than with Harper and both hail from the progressive side of the spectrum.

Among the Quebec chattering class, McGuinty is seen as an essential counterweight to the Harper Conservatives

That sense is widely shared in the power circles of the National Assembly.

On the heels of last May’s federal Conservative victory, a Liberal defeat in Ontario on Thursday would be seen in Quebec as a second setback in less than six months.

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1065113--hebert-char...

 

Debater

ghoris wrote:

Debater wrote:

What I'm most impressed by is the Ottawa area results.  It was a clean sweep for the Liberals in contrast to the Ignatieff federal team.  Ignatieff could only win Ottawa South and Ottawa-Vanier.  Pathetic.

In contrast, McGuinty won every Ottawa riding:  Ottawa South, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Orleans, Ottawa Centre and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.

"Clean sweep", eh? How is Glengarry-Prescott-Russell an "Ottawa riding" while Nepean-Carleton and Carleton-Mississippi Mills are not? Never let the facts get in the way of a good argument, I suppose.

I was talking about all the ridings the Liberals held going into this election they kept.  They never held those other 2 ridings.

Sorry for the confusion.

edmundoconnor

Lord Palmerston wrote:

I agree with you about Scarborough.  Bruce Budd had a very good showing in SSW - doubled the vote there.  The problem is that the Liberals were far stronger in this campaign and the Tories much weaker.  And in Rouge River, Neethan Shan came very close.

Even though the Liberal brand has some resiliency, I saw the lit that Lorenzo Berardinetti was dropping on E-1 (and on E-day). The literature was an offence to civilized discourse. It showed Lorenzo was extremely rattled by the attack on his left flank, suggesting vulnerability.

adma

As usual, I wish people wouldn't keep spelling "Sarah Thompson".

Oh, and re Debater's previous-thread gloating over Paul Ferreira's record of persistent failure: look at it this way, in defeat now as in 2007, he actually had a *higher* share than Mike Sullivan did in winning federally this year...

bekayne

Krago wrote:

In the 28 ridings with both a Libertarian and a Freedom (Objectivist) name on the ballot, the Libertarians prevailed 26-2.

Well, that settles that argument then

Stockholm

A few other election notes.

 

I think we cn pronounce the Socialist Party of Ontario a total joke. They ran 5 candidates and each of them barely got over 100 votes! After all that hullaballoo about their founding convention they barely got 500 votes in the whole province. The parrot is dead!

The Green party is another dead parrot. Their vote dropped from 8% to less than 3% and in ridings like Bruce0Grey Owen Sound and Guelph where they had shown some strength in the past - their vote totally evaporated to nothingness. I pronounce that parrot D-E-D DEAD!

Life, the unive...

Seems to me the NDP has a significant rural riding problem outside the north, even Essex is not all that rural.  If the NDP wants to ever be taken seriously as a contender for government the ONDP and the federal NDP needs to get their act together on rural issues and building those ridings.  If they don't the highest they can ever hope for is a moral victory as the official opposition and even that will be next to impossible.  There is a way to talk about rural/small town issues from a progressive point of view, but as yet the NDP hasn't figured it out, even with the likes of some of the their top notch candidates and have left the field wide open to the Conservatives as these ridings abandon the Liberals.

Aristotleded24

Life, the universe, everything wrote:
Seems to me the NDP has a significant rural riding problem outside the north, even Essex is not all that rural.  If the NDP wants to ever be taken seriously as a contender for government the ONDP and the federal NDP needs to get their act together on rural issues and building those ridings.  If they don't the highest they can ever hope for is a moral victory as the official opposition and even that will be next to impossible.  There is a way to talk about rural/small town issues from a progressive point of view, but as yet the NDP hasn't figured it out, even with the likes of some of the their top notch candidates and have left the field wide open to the Conservatives as these ridings abandon the Liberals.

Clearly the NDP did not to as well in rural Ontario in this provincial election as they did federally. Might part of that be because provincially the Liberals were the incumbent provincial government and thus more likely to do no worse than second, where federally the Liberals had been off the scene for some time? It's clear that there were close ties between this year's federal and provincial campaigns, so I'm thinking maybe local dynamics played a bigger role.

That said, I agree the NDP needs to get its act together. Eastern Ontario is a particular problem, since the NDP elected nobody from that part of the province.

Lord Palmerston

Aristotleded24 wrote:
That said, I agree the NDP needs to get its act together. Eastern Ontario is a particular problem, since the NDP elected nobody from that part of the province.

Interestingly, the NDP were second in Kingston and the Islands.

Lord Palmerston

Life, the universe, everything wrote:
Seems to me the NDP has a significant rural riding problem outside the north, even Essex is not all that rural. 

http://www.lfpress.com/news/ontarioelection/2011/10/07/18798076.html

Wilf Day

Lord Palmerston wrote:

Interestingly, the NDP were second in Kingston and the Islands.

Because the PC vote there was only 22.3%. But the NDP did better in Peterborough (25.7%, up from 16.6% in 2007 and 24.9% in this year's federal) than in Kingston (23.7%, up from 20.6% in 2007 and 21.5 in this year's federal). Also good: Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry (20.6%, up from 7.4% in 2007 and 17.5% in this year's federal).

Also noteworthy:
Niagara Falls (26.3%, up from 9.9% in 2007 and 23.5% in this year's federal)
Guelph (23.9%, up from 13.8% in 2007 and 16.7% in this year's federal)

However, these are still (except Guelph) down in actual votes, with the low turnout:

Riding, NDP votes Oct. 6, May 2
Stormont, 8078, 8313
Kingston, 10229, 13065
Peterborough, 12458, 14723
Guelph, 11148, 9880
Niagara Falls, 12233, 12681

By the way, gold medal to Guelph: was it the only riding in Ontario to increase its raw vote from May 2?

infracaninophile infracaninophile's picture

Well, a pleasant surprise out here in the boondocks (ADFW). This riding was written off as a Con shoo-in, as it is federally. where the extreme right-wing Tory  (who actually said in public that women were meant to serve men and stay out of leadership roles) won in May by a large margin.  The Con candidate  was  some media airhead (I don't watch television so have never seen her in her element) who was favoured to take the riding by storm. Ted McMeekin, a rather lacklustre sitting Liberal MP, was expected to go down in flames. The NDP has never been a serious contender here, although we did have a fine NDP MPP who won in the Bob Rae election.

It was interesting to me that there were few elections signs anywhere in my rural part of north ADFW. I saw one Donna Skelly (PC) sign on Campbellville Road, a smattering of McMeekin signs, one Green Party sign on an organic farm, and no NDP signs. I considered holding my nose and voting Liberal, but was encouraged by the polls that showed Hudak's momentum gone and supported the NDP candidate. Well!  The results showed McMeekin re-relected by a considerable margin -- over 5000 votes. The early polls reporting showed the NDP candidate ahead of the PC one  for quite some time -- pulling in over 20% of votes cast, although the final tally was more modest with the NDP picking up around half the number of votes as the PC. 

Is there anywhere one can see the poll-by-poll tally in a riding? I'm in poll #4, which is entirely rural, and if the results were reported in numerical order, that would suggest there's much more NDP support here than I ever suspected. I know Westdale is more NDP-friendly but maybe the anger against the Mid-Pen highway, quarry and lingering rage at the Cons for the forced amalgamation with Hamilton has left this area more open to alternatives.

 

edmundoconnor

adma wrote:

 

Oh, and re Debater's previous-thread gloating over Paul Ferreira's record of persistent failure: look at it this way, in defeat now as in 2007, he actually had a *higher* share than Mike Sullivan did in winning federally this year...

And if Debater had seen the disgusting tactics used by the Liberals and others to stop Paul, they wouldn't be gloating quite so much. Unless a homophobic whispering campaign is somehow considered progressive.

janfromthebruce

I totally agree with that. For one though, is for the movers and shakers of the party to actually come and stay for a day or so, to talk with rural folk about issues - eg. industrial wind turbines, agr/farm business and so on. In Bruce, how about Tabuns how environmental critic actually coming to Huron Bruce and meeting with folks in this area of concern, also those who work in the nuclear industry. And before some get into nuc bashing, there is a strong continguent of card carrying NDP who work at the Bruce. It's time for the urban centric NDP to get out of their comfort zone and really visit.

 

Jack did that essentially 2010. Although he was suppose to spend a day in riding his treatment prevented it, however, a dinner of setup with municipal leaders from across the riding and Jack arrived. One could surmise that really helped in the 2nd place showing federally in the riding.

 

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

Seems to me the NDP has a significant rural riding problem outside the north, even Essex is not all that rural.  If the NDP wants to ever be taken seriously as a contender for government the ONDP and the federal NDP needs to get their act together on rural issues and building those ridings.  If they don't the highest they can ever hope for is a moral victory as the official opposition and even that will be next to impossible.  There is a way to talk about rural/small town issues from a progressive point of view, but as yet the NDP hasn't figured it out, even with the likes of some of the their top notch candidates and have left the field wide open to the Conservatives as these ridings abandon the Liberals.

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

janfromthebruce

Liberals don't care how hypercritical the tactics are - on the one hand, the lib star carried the last days of the campaign with the outrage of the cons homophobic phamplet but not a peep of the Liberal dirty whisper campaign waged against Paul F. Disgusting to the core that not one "belief or value" is not worthy of sellout to win at all costs.

 

edmundoconnor wrote:

adma wrote:

 

Oh, and re Debater's previous-thread gloating over Paul Ferreira's record of persistent failure: look at it this way, in defeat now as in 2007, he actually had a *higher* share than Mike Sullivan did in winning federally this year...

And if Debater had seen the disgusting tactics used by the Liberals and others to stop Paul, they wouldn't be gloating quite so much. Unless a homophobic whispering campaign is somehow considered progressive.

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

edmundoconnor

I've said this elsewhere:

Someone who gets elected using homophobia and appealing to the worst in people, may have got the most votes, but they sure as hell haven't "won".

Homophobia is real. It exists. It exists in Canada. It exists in Ontario. It exists in Toronto. While I was disappointed (but not surprised) that the PCs would reach down into the depths of the homo/transphobic gutter, I was shocked by the depths the Liberals plumbed in their attempt to stop Paul, although in retrospect I really shouldn't have been. An honest bigot I can despise. A bigot who mouths words from the progressive songbook earns my utter, complete contempt.

Wilf Day

Two non-large-urban ridings where the NDP vote percent was higher on Oct. 6 than on May 2 (note: not including anywhere in Northern Ontario since their federal ridings and different frm their provincial ridings):

Riding, Oct. 6, May 2

Wellington-Halton Hills 14.5%, 13.0%

Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, 20.6%, 17.5%

But otherwise, lower. 

KenS

Yes, the Green Party is in serious shape.

The blogs I know of are totally silent. But they have been for some time, so I am guessing this was the expected result. The GPO had been the example held up by the grassroots of what the Green Party of Canada could be like.

Both organizations are comatose and broke. And eMe hasnt a glue about organizational needs, as well as being abrasive to anyone that does not think she walks on water.

 

Stargazer

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

Seems to me the NDP has a significant rural riding problem outside the north, even Essex is not all that rural.  If the NDP wants to ever be taken seriously as a contender for government the ONDP and the federal NDP needs to get their act together on rural issues and building those ridings.  If they don't the highest they can ever hope for is a moral victory as the official opposition and even that will be next to impossible.  There is a way to talk about rural/small town issues from a progressive point of view, but as yet the NDP hasn't figured it out, even with the likes of some of the their top notch candidates and have left the field wide open to the Conservatives as these ridings abandon the Liberals.

 

No offence but I wish people would stop peddling this nonsense.  Northern Ontario is a sea of orange. They are also part of Northern Ontario, and they voted NDP.

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

Wilf Day wrote:

Central East Region Liberal voters would have elected three MPPs, not just two. Maybe Tweed's Leona Dombrowsky or Brighton's Lou Rinaldi or Barrie's Karl Walsh.

The defeat of Leona Dombrowsky was the high point of election night for me. In my view, the most useless provincial cabinet minister in over a decade.

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

janfromthebruce wrote:

And before some get into nuc bashing, there is a strong continguent of card carrying NDP who work at the Bruce.

"Nuc bashing"? what a charming phrase for a so-called progressive to use.

For your information, there are also card-carrying NDPers working in the Athabasca Tar Sands. Will we be avoiding "tar-sands bashing" as well?

Wilf Day

Liberals outside their strongholds were also cheated by the winner-take-all system. With the democratic voting system (regional open-list MMP) recommended by the Law Commission of Canada, unrepresented Liberal voters would have elected four more
MPPs.

Central West Region Liberal voters would have elected four
MPPs, not just two. Maybe Milton's Indira Naidoo-Harris and Stratford's John
Wilkinson or Waterloo's Leeanna Pendergast.

Central East Region Liberal
voters would have elected three MPPs, not just two. Maybe Tweed's Leona
Dombrowsky or Brighton's Lou Rinaldi or Barrie's Karl Walsh.

Central
South Region Liberal voters would have elected five MPPs, not just four. Maybe
Burlington's Karmel Sakran or Hamilton's Sophia Aggelonitis.
http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2011/10/what-would-ontarios-legislature-look.html

So New Democrats can point to the skewed regional results as bad for all parties, including the PCs in Toronto, Peel and the North.

ctrl190

A few thoughts...

I was quite surprised by the blow out win for the Liberals in Ottawa-Centre. I was not necessarily thinking a sure victory, but I thought it would be won by a margin of a couple thousand at most.

I feel really bad for the Oshawa NDP. Time and time again they lose by a nose, atleast relative to the region.

After a breakthrough federal win for Rathika, and a near victory for Shan, is it fair to call Rouge River an NDP stronghold?

I agree with posters that Marchese's close victory could be the writing on the wall. In fairness, I do get the sense that many T-S supporters were volunteering in Davenport, atleast from what I saw next door. Still, T-S is changing dramatically, and the party might need a new face to keep up.  

Wilf Day

M. Spector wrote:

Wilf Day wrote:

Central East Region Liberal voters would have elected three MPPs, not just two. Maybe Tweed's Leona Dombrowsky or Brighton's Lou Rinaldi or Barrie's Karl Walsh.

The defeat of Leona Dombrowsky was the high point of election night for me. In my view, the most useless provincial cabinet minister in over a decade.

I'm sure many Liberals say some NDP MPPs are useless too. The point of representative democracy is that all of us are entitled to representation of our choice. I don't want Liberals vetoing election of New Democrats, and I don't claim the right to choose who Liberal voters wish to be represented by.

M. Spector wrote:

"Nuc bashing"? what a charming phrase for a so-called progressive to use.

[thread drift]France produces about 90% of its electricity from nuclear energy, a policy supported by successive socialist governments and presidents. I see no reason why all progressives must reflexively oppose nuclear power. [/thread drift]

Life, the unive...

Stargazer wrote:

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

Seems to me the NDP has a significant rural riding problem outside the north, even Essex is not all that rural.  If the NDP wants to ever be taken seriously as a contender for government the ONDP and the federal NDP needs to get their act together on rural issues and building those ridings.  If they don't the highest they can ever hope for is a moral victory as the official opposition and even that will be next to impossible.  There is a way to talk about rural/small town issues from a progressive point of view, but as yet the NDP hasn't figured it out, even with the likes of some of the their top notch candidates and have left the field wide open to the Conservatives as these ridings abandon the Liberals.

 

No offence but I wish people would stop peddling this nonsense.  Northern Ontario is a sea of orange. They are also part of Northern Ontario, and they voted NDP.

You did read the first line didn't you where I said "outside the north"? Obviously there is a history in northern Ontarion, but there was also a clear strategy in the federal scene to recapture a lot of that support.  Something similar is needed outside of the GTA and a few pockets around Hamilton, London and Windsor.  If the ridings I am talking about never become competative, than neither will the NDP beyond some comfy opposition chairs.

Life, the unive...

M. Spector wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

And before some get into nuc bashing, there is a strong continguent of card carrying NDP who work at the Bruce.

"Nuc bashing"? what a charming phrase for a so-called progressive to use.

For your information, there are also card-carrying NDPers working in the Athabasca Tar Sands. Will we be avoiding "tar-sands bashing" as well?

 

Being anti-nuclear has nothing to do (either way) with being progressive.  It just means you haven't been paying attention since about the mid-70s to energy issues.

Stockholm

edmundoconnor wrote:

I've said this elsewhere:

Someone who gets elected using homophobia and appealing to the worst in people, may have got the most votes, but they sure as hell haven't "won".

Homophobia is real. It exists. It exists in Canada. It exists in Ontario. It exists in Toronto. While I was disappointed (but not surprised) that the PCs would reach down into the depths of the homo/transphobic gutter, I was shocked by the depths the Liberals plumbed in their attempt to stop Paul, although in retrospect I really shouldn't have been. An honest bigot I can despise. A bigot who mouths words from the progressive songbook earns my utter, complete contempt.

Can you tell us more about what the Liberals id in YSW in terms of homophobic dirty tricks? I'd like to confront Kathleen Wynne and Glen Murray about it if i ever run into ewither of them.

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

Being anti-nuclear has nothing to do (either way) with being progressive.  It just means you haven't been paying attention since about the mid-70s to energy issues.

[url=http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1034082--ndp-vows-to... that to Andrea Horwath.[/url]

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