Ontario 2011 election: the aftermath

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Lord Palmerston

Beaches-East York (Prue/Kellway): 17,807 / 20,265 = 87.9%

Parkdale-High Park (DiNovo/Nash): 18,605 / 24,046 = 77.4%

Davenport (Schein/Cash): 14,504 / 21,096 = 68.8% 

Toronto-Danforth (Tabuns/Layton): 19,998 / 29,235 = 68.4%

Trinity-Spadina (Marchese/Chow):  19,806 / 35,601 = 55.6% 


It would be nice to look at York South-Weston, Scarborough Southwest and Scarborough-Rouge River by this matrix as well.

I think what you are showing is that in every case the ONDP candidates got fewer raw votes than did their federal counterparts in May - now of course some of that was simply a function of the overall turnout being a lot lower in the provincial election than it had been in the federal election. Also, it seems like the ONDP generally had much more of a bounce compared to 2007 outside of Toronto than inside Toronto - which also leads me to believe that credit for the ONDP gaining 6% in the popular vote across Ontario really belongs to Andrea Horwath and that it was not - just her coasting on sentiments from Jack Layton's funeral. If the ONDP vote was inflated entirely because of sentiments aroused by Jack's death - then Trinity-Spadina should have been ground zero for that sentiment.

Lord Palmerston

Not "in every case."  James Gordon in Guelph received more votes than the federal candidate - but he was a very impressive candidate, and I think he was the only one.  I agree with you that the gain in the popular vote was not "merely" due to coasting on Jack's memory.  People do realize that federal and provincial are a different kettle of fish (just ask Rocco Rossi!) 

I think it also shows it's time for someone new in Trinity-Spadina, all the other elected MPPs got at least two-thirds as many votes as their federal counterparts, but Marchese could barely muster half.  


When I said "every case" I meant every one of the five cases you listed above. There are several cases where the ONDP candidates outperformed the federal NDP candidate - if not in raw votes then at least inn vote share. For starters there are three ridings that the Ontario NDP won that did NOT go NDP federally at all: Essex, Kenora and BGM. I think the ONDP may have had a higher vote % in York West, Oshawa, Niagara Falls and Peterborough.

Wilf Day

Canadians are, sadly, used to seeing exaggerated regional
differences in our federal elections.

On May 2 this year,
Conservative voters in Saskatchewan elected 13 MPs while 627,962 Conservative voters in Quebec elected only five
MPs. Similarly, 129,310 Liberal voters in Alberta elected no one while 130,577
Liberal voters in Nova Scotia elected four MPs.

Now Ontario’s recent provincial
election has joined this parade of stronghold politics.

In Liberal strongholds -- the
GTA, Ottawa, and the North -- it took only about 25,000 Liberal voters to elect
an MPP. Elsewhere it took more than 50,000 to do so. Similarly, in PC
strongholds it took about 25,000 voters to elect an MPP while elsewhere it took
more than 60,000 to do so. In Hamilton-Niagara it took less than
30,000 NDP voters to elect an MPP, while in other regions over 100,000 NDP
voters elected no one.

In the 23 ridings west of the GTA
and Hamilton-Niagara, 388,961 PC voters
elected 14 MPPs (27,782 votes per MPP), while 325,177 Liberal voters elected 7
MPPs (46,454 votes per MPP), and 215,730 NDP voters elected 2 MPPs (107,865
votes per MPP)

In the 13 ridings outside the GTA from Barrie to Cornwall and
Pembroke, 268,649 PC voters elected 11 MPPS
(24,423 votes per MPP), 167,148 Liberal voters elected 2 MPPS (83,572 votes per
MPP), and 102,616 NDP voters elected no one.

By contrast, in the 45 GTA ridings, 778,448 Liberal voters elected 31 MPPs
(25,111 votes per MPP), 372,390 NDP voters
elected six MPPs (62,065 votes per MPP), and 551,041 PC voters elected eight
MPPs (68,880 votes per MPP).

In the eight Ottawa-area
ridings (note this includes Glengarry--Prescott—Russell which is 46% in the
Ottawa metro area), 156,620 Liberal voters elected 6 MPPs (26,103 votes per
MPP), 143,847 PC voters elected two MPPs (71,924 votes per MPP), and 60,092 NDP
voters elected no one.

In the ten ridings of Northern Ontario, 87,121 Liberal voters elected 4 MPPs (21,780 votes per
MPP), 110,099 NDP voters elected 5 MPPs (22,020 votes per MPP), and 67,469 PC
voters elected only one MPP.

In the eight ridings of
Hamilton-Niagara, 119,277 NDP voters elected four MPPs (29,819 votes per MPP),
107,912 Liberal voters elected three MPPs (35,971 votes per MPP), while 107,992
PC voters elected only one MPP.


So without consideration for MMP and proper representation, the NDP should have won 25 seats instead of 17: +8

The Liberals should have 41 seats not 53: -12

The Tories should have 38 seats for +1

Greens should have 3 seats not 0: +3


We were victims of electoral fraud. Again! And yet there are people who wonder why voter turnout was lower than a snail's belly in a wagon rut?


Closing for length.


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