Ontario 2011 Election Campaign 2

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MegB
Ontario 2011 Election Campaign 2

Continued from here.

Issues Pages: 
edmundoconnor

I find it fascinating that people are assuming the person in the middle to be a woman. It's a reasonable assumption, but I thought it a nice way to lever a few more votes out of Toronto Centre (the drag queen demographic). Wink

edmundoconnor

Policywonk wrote:

I presume the NDP would be more inclined to prop up the Liberals, but would it be an informal arrangement, an agreement to vote confidence and supply, a more formal 'accord' with specific policy commitments (a la Rae-Peterson) or a full coalition (as Rae later wished he had done)? Any thoughts?

If that does happen, we should take them to the cleaners. Like all smaller parties in a minority government, we would have the whip hand. And we shouldn't be afraid to use it.

edmundoconnor

I find it amusing that the Globe compares Horwath's patter to Churchill's, given that the latter had often testy relations with actual voters.

Life, the unive...

I've been playing with the numbers in that Leger poll (usual caution about polls) and it seems to me there is a strong possibility that the NDP is 2nd in the south and maybe even the west regions they mentions.  Whatever south and west mean in an Ontario context.

edmundoconnor

I thought that division into 'south' and 'west' was weird, too. Especially given much of the north is further west than 'western' Ontario. What do they do, run a tape from Hamilton to Windsor?

nicky

The Leger numbers from the "east", wherever that is, are suspect. Suddenly it is the NDP's best region with 32%, tied with the Liberals and one point ahead of the PCs.

Eastern Ontario has always been the NDP's weakest region

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

Yeah, the eastern region is traditionally redneck/mouthbreather territory.

This mock ad is kind of funny:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_fZDR_3Lek&feature=player_embedded

bekayne

There was a mistake in the reporting of the Leger poll. The NDP are at 26%, not 29%. The Greens are at 5%

http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/119193ENG.pdf

Life, the unive...

ok I am going to go back to my usual huge skepticism about polls.   The areas are weird in this, plus in one area (the west) the Greens magically jump to 13 %    All this poll really tells us is that we are approaching an Ontario election with an outcome completely up in the air and that neither the Conservative "taxman" attack or the Liberal scary Hudak strategic voting stuff is working very well.

 

That said 26% at this point doesn't exactly suck either.

Stockholm

If the NDP vote even just nudged up from 17% to 20% (and i expect to do much better than that) - it would probably lead to an jump from 10 seats to 17 or 18. I have to say that so far I find this a very odd and dull campaign. Its as if we are just waiting for something to happen!

edmundoconnor

Even if we're only(!) dealing with 26%, then I would be keeping a very, very close eye on BGM. I have the feeling that Jagmeet will win, now that he's got headquarters to pay attention to him.

Policywonk

edmundoconnor wrote:

Policywonk wrote:

I presume the NDP would be more inclined to prop up the Liberals, but would it be an informal arrangement, an agreement to vote confidence and supply, a more formal 'accord' with specific policy commitments (a la Rae-Peterson) or a full coalition (as Rae later wished he had done)? Any thoughts?

If that does happen, we should take them to the cleaners. Like all smaller parties in a minority government, we would have the whip hand. And we shouldn't be afraid to use it.

I think this was ghoris. I was speculating on what the other parties might do if the NDP finished higher than third.

Policywonk

nicky wrote:

The Leger numbers from the "east", wherever that is, are suspect. Suddenly it is the NDP's best region with 32%, tied with the Liberals and one point ahead of the PCs.

Eastern Ontario has always been the NDP's weakest region

Except for Ottawa.

edmundoconnor

Policywonk wrote:

I think this was ghoris. I was speculating on what the other parties might do if the NDP finished higher than third.

Sorry. My mistake. Such are the perils of cutting and pasting.

adma

Policywonk wrote:

nicky wrote:

The Leger numbers from the "east", wherever that is, are suspect. Suddenly it is the NDP's best region with 32%, tied with the Liberals and one point ahead of the PCs.

Eastern Ontario has always been the NDP's weakest region

Except for Ottawa.

And Ottawa Centre, at that--though w/these numbers, Ottawa-Vanier might be an outside possibility.

And of course, "always" is contradicted by the Michael Cassidy era--by default, at least.

toaster

^ That Legel poll has NDP in third in the North when in reality they are far ahead in first. 

Also, I'm starting to get nervous about Ottawa-Centre.  Both the PCs and Liberals have more signs out than Anil Naidoo (NDP).  I'd love to see Ottawa-Vanier to go NDP, but I don't think that will happen for a while, maybe as more condos and residences are built around U of O.  The ridings I'm most looking forward to see the results of on Election night are: Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Sudbury, Sault St Marie, Ottawa Centre, Windsor West, Windsor-Tecumseh and London-Fanshawe.

adma

toaster wrote:
I'd love to see Ottawa-Vanier to go NDP, but I don't think that will happen for a while, maybe as more condos and residences are built around U of O.  

Or, if the seat becomes open (cf. Windsor West)

Krago

It's back...

CBC Vote Compass

lil.Tommy

Also heard about this site:

http://www.threeontariovotes.ca/home.php

 

Gives you, as the name says, thre votes... basically it lets you vote using FPTP, PR and Alternate for this election. Pretty good idea

edmundoconnor

toaster wrote:

^ That Legel poll has NDP in third in the North when in reality they are far ahead in first. 

In the North, the NDP has the potential to rout pretty much everyone else. Even if that 51% is inaccurate, then it's not too far away from that number. High forties, and you're wondering what seats you won't win.

Lord Palmerston

Nipissing and Parry Sound-Muskoka 

lil.Tommy

debatable north... :P

edmundoconnor

Lord Palmerston wrote:

Nipissing and Parry Sound-Muskoka 

Those being two. Can't think of any others, though.

Policywonk

Lord Palmerston wrote:

Nipissing and Parry Sound-Muskoka 

Parry Sound-Muskoka is mostly in central Ontario, depending on how one defines Northern Ontario (I'm using the French River, Lake Nippissing criteria). East of Lake Nippissing the boundary is a little hazy (I grew up in Ontario, but haven't lived there in over 30 years), but it seems Nippissing is entirely in Northern Ontario. These electoral districts have never had a history of voting NDP (I don't think people need or want to be reminded of who represented Nippissing).

lil.Tommy

It might surprise some, or not, but the NDP have held Muskoka-Georgia Bay... but that was the Rae 90 government so. The NDP are in a good place to win I'd say all but Parry Sound-Muskoka and Nipissing. Sudbury, Sault Ste. marie will be the ones that might just remain liberal if they manage to hold their vote.

edmundoconnor

Incidentally, I can't help beginning to feel like we'll see a by-election in York Centre in the near future, with possibly Bernie Farber running as the Liberal if he fails in Thornhill.

edmundoconnor

Tommy, I'd be surprised if the NDP didn't win Sudbury, given how Thibeault ran away with it in May.

lil.Tommy

I hold back on Sudbury and SSM because they have Liberal incumbents, and last time around they were targets but not as close as some would have liked (including myself). Its hard to do a direct comparison with the results from may since the ridings are not the same but I agree this is 2011, not 2007 and ALL the ridings are in play up North. I feel those are the most competative and least likely to swing back to the NDP... i am hoping i'm wrong and that we indeed sweep them all. I think with Dalton not taking part in the Northern debate pretty much sealed the deal for the NDP.

toaster

^^ Agreed.  It's quite a different picture from 2007, when all Northern Ontario ridings stayed the same.  Sudbury i think will go NDP before the Sault will.  The problem with Sudbury (and Thunder Bay-Superior North) is that they have high-probfile Liberal incumbents.  The Sault doesn't as much, but was one of the only NDP loses in the 11 Orange Crush.  It's crazy how Dalton McGuintry absoultely gave up on the North.  It has almost always been a Liberal stronghold, but as in the Federal election, I think they'll place third in most ridings and lose a large percentage of their share of the vote, with the only reason being McGuinty's total lack of care for the region (won't participate in a Northern debate, job loses in the region, giving the Go-Train contract to a Quebec company instead of North Bay, Xstrata closure in Timmins).  

Stockholm

Check out the tables on the right side in this Ipsos online poll of 8,000 people in Ontario. They don't actually ask how people will vote, but they do ask people what their most important issue is and then which party will do the best job of dealing with whatever issue they feel is most important. They get Libs and PCs dead even at 36% each and the NDP at 25% - so that would mean back to the 1985 scenario! (I think we can assume that almost everyone will vote for the party that they think will do the best job on their most important issue).

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5340

nicky

I have been polled three times in the past week here in Toronto Centre. All were robocalls which asked only 2 questions, whetherr I would vote and for which candidate. The 4  candidates (including the Green ) were named and identified by party. One call said it was on behalf of the Hudak campaign, the others were on behalf of  polling companies.

I have never been polled so often. Does it mean that Toronto Centre is close? Or is it a cheap way of canvassing and determining which vote to pull on election day?

edmundoconnor

Where would 26% put the ONDP in terms of seats?

Stockholm

The federal NDP just took 26% in Ontario and that yielded 22 seats...my guess is that if the ONDP gets 24-26% and the Liberals and Tories are very close (as seems likely), we are probably looking at 20-ish seats (which sure beats the current 10!)

edmundoconnor

If the Hudak campaign is seriously thinking they can take Toronto Centre, that's got to be some powerful stuff they're smoking.

Stockholm

nicky wrote:

I have never been polled so often. Does it mean that Toronto Centre is close? Or is it a cheap way of canvassing and determining which vote to pull on election day?

To ask the question is to answer it. If the parties thought that Toronto Centre was in the bag for the Liberals...none of them would even bother with identifying votes to pull on e-day. So yes it is a cheap way of canvassing and identifying votes - but I'll bet that in the 2007 election no one felt they needed to do any serious campaigning in that riding!

edmundoconnor

Stockholm wrote:

The federal NDP just took 26% in Ontario and that yielded 22 seats...my guess is that if the ONDP gets 24-26% and the Liberals and Tories are very close (as seems likely), we are probably looking at 20-ish seats (which sure beats the current 10!)

Cool!

I suspect now that (in Toronto) YSW will become a Ferreira romp, Davenport falling relatively easily, and SSW will inch ever further into the orange column.

Lord Palmerston

edmundoconnor wrote:

If the Hudak campaign is seriously thinking they can take Toronto Centre, that's got to be some powerful stuff they're smoking.

You're right, they don't have a chance there.  

TC was the second worst riding for Ford in the mayoral election.

edmundoconnor

Lord Palmerston wrote:

You're right, they don't have a chance there.  

But I really hope that doesn't stop them. A strong PC campaign shreds Murray's right flank, allowing Crowe to squeeze through to victory. And I can think of few sweeter victories on October 6. It also sends a shot across the bows of Bob Rae, which is never a bad thing.

Stockholm

Considering how the Tories are in a state of total collapse across Toronto - I don't see them having the luxury of being able to piss away resources in Toronto Centre that could be used in the one or two seats in Toronto where they might still have a chance of winning.

adma

toaster wrote:

^^ Agreed.  It's quite a different picture from 2007, when all Northern Ontario ridings stayed the same.  Sudbury i think will go NDP before the Sault will.  The problem with Sudbury (and Thunder Bay-Superior North) is that they have high-probfile Liberal incumbents.  The Sault doesn't as much, but was one of the only NDP loses in the 11 Orange Crush.  

Actually, while Orazietti might not be so high-profile in caucus, he turned out to be the strongest Northern Liberal in '07, totally defying the orange swing that affected the rest of the North to some degree--that must say something about his local mystique...

Lord Palmerston

Stockholm wrote:

Considering how the Tories are in a state of total collapse across Toronto - I don't see them having the luxury of being able to piss away resources in Toronto Centre that could be used in the one or two seats in Toronto where they might still have a chance of winning.

i think Rocco Rossi will lose.

lil.Tommy

adma wrote:

toaster wrote:

^^ Agreed.  It's quite a different picture from 2007, when all Northern Ontario ridings stayed the same.  Sudbury i think will go NDP before the Sault will.  The problem with Sudbury (and Thunder Bay-Superior North) is that they have high-probfile Liberal incumbents.  The Sault doesn't as much, but was one of the only NDP loses in the 11 Orange Crush.  

Actually, while Orazietti might not be so high-profile in caucus, he turned out to be the strongest Northern Liberal in '07, totally defying the orange swing that affected the rest of the North to some degree--that must say something about his local mystique...

Thats one of the reasons i think SSM might be the hardest fight in the north (ok excluding Parry Sound-Muskoka and Nipissing) BUT, like we say, this is '11 and not '07; the NDP have a very strong candidate in Celia Ross, combine that with McGuinty basically giving up on the north, the tilt in the North to the NDP (we can't really compare to the federal results as federally SSM is much larger taking in more rural and generally more conservative areas) Provincially this is a urban riding. If we are saying Mcguinty has given up in the north then Orazietti will lose his right-leaning flank to the tories, again like with Toronto Centre, leaving Ross to take the seat (fingers crossed at least).

I think this situation might just pan out across the province in places like Essex, London-Fanshawe and BGM where the Tories eat the liberals right flank and the NDP who had strong showings already come up and take the seat. Probably with no more than 35-40% of the vote in those ridigns but thats still in win with FPTP.

Any other ridings out there that might fall into this category?

 

Krago

Using the provincial boundaries for Sault Ste Marie, the Tories would still have won it in the recent federal election:

  • Sault Ste Marie (prov.): Cons 40%, NDP 37%, Lib 20%, Green 2%, Other 0%
  • Rural Areas: Cons 47%, NDP 38%, Lib 12%, Green 2%, Other 0%

ETA: Here are the federal results transposed onto the provincial riding boundaries for all seats in Northern Ontario:

  • Algoma-Manitoulin: NDP 47%, Cons 37%, Lib 13%, Green 3%, Other 0%
  • Kenora-Rainy River: Cons 44%, NDP 33%, Lib 20%, Green 2%, Other 0%
  • Nickel Belt: NDP 56%, Cons 28%, Lib 13%, Green 3%, Other 0%
  • Nipissing: Cons 38%, Lib 36%, NDP 20%, Green 6%, Other 0%
  • Parry Sound-Muskoka: Cons 56%, NDP 24%, Lib 11%, Green 8%, Other 0%
  • Sault Ste. Marie: Cons 40%, NDP 37%, Lib 20%, Green 2%, Other 0%
  • Sudbury: NDP 50%, Cons 27%, Lib 19%, Green 3%, Other 1%
  • Thunder Bay-Atikokan: NDP 47%, Cons 27%, Lib 23%, Green 3%, Other 0%
  • Thunder Bay-Superior North: NDP 51%, Cons 28%, Lib 17%, Green 3%, Other 1%
  • Timiskaming-Cochrane: NDP 47%, Cons 31%, Lib 19%, Green 3%, Other 0%
  • Timmins-James Bay: NDP 51%, Cons 27%, Lib 20%, Green 2%

toaster

^^ Sudbury NDP being at about the same level as Timmins James Bay, one of the safest NDP seats both Provincially and Federally, leads me to believe that it will infact go NDP by a pretty large margin.

lil.Tommy

Krago wrote:

Kenora-Rainy River: Cons 44%, NDP 33%, Lib 20%, Green 2%, Other 0%

Now thats a upsetting, Howard Hamptons riding likely to fall? Can anymore report on how well the Sarah Campbell campaign is doing up there and is there a threat that the NDP could lose it?

I'm still thinking that the NDP will win SSM (it will be close) with the liberals and tories fighting it out over second.

Stockholm

The Soo has shown some weird patterns in the past. Remember how Tony Martin was defeated by a wide margin by a Liberal in the 2003 provincial election, but then he won the same seat federally six months later, won it again in 2006, then it went Liberal by a huge margin in 2007 provincially, then went NDP federally in '08 and then it bucked the trend federally the NDP vote went down there.

The weirdness goes even further back. In 1990 while the NDP was sweeping Ontario - they almost lost the Soo even though it was a seat they already held in the 1987 election. Then in 1995 - the NDP actually increased its margin of victory there while losing other seemingly safer seats by huge margins!! so go figure

Expect the unexpected.

adma

lil.Tommy wrote:

Krago wrote:

Kenora-Rainy River: Cons 44%, NDP 33%, Lib 20%, Green 2%, Other 0%

Now thats a upsetting, Howard Hamptons riding likely to fall? Can anymore report on how well the Sarah Campbell campaign is doing up there and is there a threat that the NDP could lose it?

"Likely to fall" only if you extrapolate too crudely and directly from the federal results.  By that measure, Dwight Duncan and Sandra Pupatello were "likely to fall" in 2007 (granted, they were incumbents, and Kenora-RR has no incumbent; but, still)

Personally, I feel that had the Cons not eked ahead of NDP in 2006 (uniquely, for the north-past-Nipissing) and thus positioned themselves as the "nominal anti-Liberal option" for 2008, we might not be hand-wringing in such terms.

NDPP

NDP Candidate Who Compared Nazism to Religion Must Go, Liberal Candidate Says

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1...

"Farber said it is no laughing matter and demanded Horwath dump Marco. But so far she's standing solidly by her candidate. 'Shame on both of them,' Farber told the Star.."

 

janfromthebruce

oh NDPP, the libs are getting scared and just resorting to their normal smear and jeer strategies. I guess they just don't want to talk about the issues and their policy stances, besides again taking words out of context for their smearing ends. Everybody moved on as - same old same old, is so passe.

janfromthebruce

oh, and forgot, pretty darn stupid of liberals "to smear" a OSSTF president who happens to this candidate. I'm wondering what his union brothers and sisters are thinking about the liberals now - WTG - "eating your own comes to mind"

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