Ontario 2011 Election Campaign 3

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MegB
Ontario 2011 Election Campaign 3

Continuing on from here.

Issues Pages: 
Lord Palmerston

M. Spector wrote:
Foolish me. I had been thinking a thread entitled "Ontario 2011 Election Campaign" on a supposedly political website would be about the election campaign and the issues facing the voters. I should have known it was just another apolitical exercise in number-crunching the latest polling figures.

Here's something to think about.  The attacks on the Rae government by Andrea Horwath and Brian Topp - are actually attacks from the right, not the left:

http://xraymagazine.ca/31/4/ 

dacckon dacckon's picture

I think Peter Kormos would reject that nonsense that Andrea is from the right. That's something to think about. What a pointless article you've dug up there.

Lord Palmerston

It's not pointless at all as long as the ONDP continues to trot out this "Bob Rae was fiscally irresponsible but Bob Rae is now a Liberal" (and thus finally allows us to boast about "successful" NDP governments).  Has the NDP in Manitoba and Nova Scotia governed to the left of Rae?  

A leftist critique of the Rae govt. would mean criticism of the Social Contract, the failure to bring in public auto insurance as promised, etc.  Not about high deficits.  

ETA: Rae is a pompous ass, and he too has moved significantly to the right since he was premier.  But the reason for the failure of the Rae govt. was not primarily because he was "really a Liberal."  This is a systemic issue with social democracy, seeking class compromise and not wanting to "scare away business" etc. 

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

M. Spector wrote:
Foolish me. I had been thinking a thread entitled "Ontario 2011 Election Campaign" on a supposedly political website would be about the election campaign and the issues facing the voters. I should have known it was just another apolitical exercise in number-crunching the latest polling figures.

Yeah, how dare they.

Perhaps in the future, people should just get in touch with you first, to obtain your approval.

Lens Solution

"Neck-and-neck Ontario race favours McGuinty three weeks in"

 

"With less than two weeks to go in Ontario’s election campaign, voters remain split on who should form the province’s next government. But that is good news for the incumbent Liberals, since were an election held at the end of last week Dalton McGuinty would have likely won a razor-thin majority."

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-election/neck-and-n...

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I'm surprised to read this.  I wouldn't have thought either the Liberals or the PC's had the numbers to win a majority.  I thought only a minority was possible.

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

You can always count on first past the post to distort what the electorate wants.

Meanwhile, I thought this was interesting:

"Today, the Ontario NDP presented its comprehensive platform costing, including all policies announced during the election campaign.

A popular theme among commentators has been that platform costings are unrealistic given the deteriorating economic outlook. As Andrea Horwath noted, her platform includes significant contingency funds.

It is also cautiously built on the fiscal framework set out in the 2011 provincial budget. By contrast, the Liberal and Conservative platforms assume extra revenue arising from economic growth in excess of Budget 2011 projections.

In fact, New Democrats would increase provincial spending more than they would reduce taxes. They would invest more in public services than the Liberals and Conservatives.

The NDP would strengthen fiscal capacity by reversing corporate tax cuts and by making permanent the current restrictions on HST input tax credits. (The latter's fiscal significance going forward is well illustrated on page 5 of the NDP's fiscal framework document.)

Far from jumping on the tax-cutting bandwagon, Ontario New Democrats have staked out a fundamentally different policy direction than Liberals and Conservatives."

 

http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2011/09/25/ontario-ndp-platform/

Lord Palmerston

I don't think a 55/45 ratio of public spending over tax cuts is really all that inspiring.  Hardly a break from neoliberalism.

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

Well, I think providing a break for some of my friends, who either work for small businesses or operate their own small businesses is okay, considering that they're middle-class folk (as are the majority of small business owners/employees) and aren't corporate behemoths.

Still I'd prefer a public works or jobs initiatve.

Fidel

I don't think the NDP should try all that hard this campaign. Why not? Because Ontario is currently at the edge of an economic abyss. The overal western world neoliberal ideology is set to implode over the next few years.  McGuilty and Liberals have racked up so much debt over the last eight years that, well, we're fucked to put it bluntly. About 22% of Ontarians doing the choosing in the province want their Fiscal Frankensteins and they like them to be Liberal. Or conservative it doesn't matter all that much to about a fifth of eligible voters. If this had been Rae's NDP racking up this amount of mega-debt, the NDP would have been crucified for it by lapdog newz media and Bay Street working hand in hand. 

No I think it's time that the 22% reap what they have sewn since 1995. The phony majority are not disabused of their old line party habits just yet. Like cartoon character Pete Puma once said, give us some more lumps, a whole lotta lumps. And fiscal Frankensteins in either of the two old line parties are entirely willing to dish out the lumps in Puerto Ontario. We're fucked, and the two old line parties will fuck things up a lot more in proving that neoliberal ideology is a road to serfdom. They are paving the way for socialism slowly but surely.

dacckon dacckon's picture

There is a bit of wisdom in your words. The NDP can go to official opposition and possibly wait for the economy to thrash the governing party around. If its a minority, the power of the NDP increases and it can gain a stronger sense of legitimacy.

Fidel

The two old line parties in the US and Canada are trying hard to create a new dark ages era.  And they're winning. And if and when they are trounced at the polls, it should be decisively and not by any of this bullshit phony majority baloney. Voters in Puerto Ontario should fully embrace a new way altogether when the time comes. Let's hope there is something left to salvage as was the case in resource depleted Sweden after lumber barons were finished destroying the landscape in that country and running off with profits in hand. Socialism can work wonders with very little resources and requiring just a small amount of hope for the future. And that time will come for Puerto Ontarians as surely as Pinocchio McGuilty's nose will grow another foot by year's end.

twinklestar

Lens Solution wrote:

"Neck-and-neck Ontario race favours McGuinty three weeks in"

 

"With less than two weeks to go in Ontario’s election campaign, voters remain split on who should form the province’s next government. But that is good news for the incumbent Liberals, since were an election held at the end of last week Dalton McGuinty would have likely won a razor-thin majority."

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-election/neck-and-n...

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I'm surprised to read this.  I wouldn't have thought either the Liberals or the PC's had the numbers to win a majority.  I thought only a minority was possible.

 

Oh, you had me scared for a moment until I saw who wrote it. His projections are drivel, I don't know why anyone takes him seriously.

Doug

Lord Palmerston wrote:
 

A leftist critique of the Rae govt. would mean criticism of the Social Contract, the failure to bring in public auto insurance as promised, etc.  Not about high deficits.  

ETA: Rae is a pompous ass, and he too has moved significantly to the right since he was premier.  But the reason for the failure of the Rae govt. was not primarily because he was "really a Liberal."  This is a systemic issue with social democracy, seeking class compromise and not wanting to "scare away business" etc. 

 

The fundamental problem with the Rae government is really none of these. It was that one they misdiagnosed the 1990 recession as simply a cyclical event that would shortly resolve itself with a little assistance from public spending. The fact was that after the signing of the FTA, huge chunks of Ontario manufacturing just had no reason to exist in a continentally-integrated system of production and that was going to take years to sort out. The high deficits just didn't do what they were supposed to in this context, especially as federal and Bank of Canada policy pushed more powerfully in the other direction. The kind of policies that would have helped were eventually introduced by the NDP after 1993 - those would be jobsOntario, jobsOntario Training and some work done on industrial policy - but by then they were really too late to have shown results by the next election. They also took far too long to get even the low-cost controversial items on the agenda done such that by the next election things like the anti-scab legislation and employment equity were still issues.

Lens Solution

I wonder why The Globe and Mail gives it so much credibility?  Perhaps it is an indication of how far the newspaper has deteriorated. 

bekayne

Two new polls:

Ekos- Lib 34.9%, PC 31.4%, NDP 24.7%, Green 6.3%

http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/FG-2011-09-27.pdf

Abacus- PC 37%, Lib 33%, NDP 23%, Green 6%

http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Ballot-Ontario-Sept-26-2011.pdf

 

MegB

The Ontario Leaders' debate is on now ... Andrea Horwath is very strong, doing well.

janfromthebruce

I have my computer on and watching - she is doing well Rebecca! Kiss

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Andrea is my MPP, and she is kicking these guys' butts around the block.

janfromthebruce

I missed the opening statements because I was working in a campaign - I'll try to catch it later!

MegB

She's totally kicking ass - I hope voters are really listening with care and screening for Liberal and PC bullshit.

JeffWells

Andrea's rocking. Hope Ontario's watching.

toaster

She's doing well, but she sounds very nervous.  

MegB

I don't think she sounds nervous at all.  Perhaps at the beginning of the debate, but she's recovered extremely well.

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

Hudak meanwhile is regurgitating all of the failed Republican policies from the last thirty years or so.

Andrea indeed is looking strong.

 

MegB

sanizadeh wrote:

 

The conservatives could have sent a record player in place of Tim Hudak. No matter what the question is, his answer is: Mr. McGuinty raises taxes; smart meters hurt the seniors!" McGuinty sounds really angry. He is losing it.

IMO Howarth has done very well so far. On every question she is offering a choice different from what McGuinty and Hudak are proposing.

That's my impression too.

sanizadeh

 

The conservatives could have sent a record player in place of Tim Hudak. No matter what the question is, his answer is: Mr. McGuinty raises taxes; smart meters hurt the seniors!" McGuinty sounds really angry. He is losing it.

IMO Horwath has done very well so far. On every question she is offering a choice different from what McGuinty and Hudak are proposing.

Lens Solution

This was a pretty-balanced debate from what I could tell.  There were no obvious winners or losers in the way there were in the federal debate where Jack Layton knocked Michael Ignatieff flat.

It was what you usually get in a debate - several leaders all with their own strengths and weaknesses, but no one absolutely rising to the occasion or making fatal mistakes.

Having said that, Andrea Horwarth may have been able to make herself appear as a different alternative to the usual PC/Liberal rivalry.  McGuinty was much more comfortable than he's been in previous debates.  He used to be very awkward in his body language and non-verbal communication and not look very confident.  Remember the 1999 debate where he was humiliated by anchor Robert Fisher?  But there were times tonight where he looked a bit too agitated and where he spent too much time playing with his glasses.

Hudak is a provincial version of Stephen Harper - he is able to remain confident, calm and slick, but on the other hand I'm not sure if he made the major impact he was hoping to do to introduce himself to Ontario voters.

janfromthebruce

Actually Hudak looked angry at different times and not genuine. And I liked that Andrea said hmm, and ah, because she sounded like how most people talk. There is a part of people where unconsciously we relate to people who appear like us and most people don't hav smooth answers but thoughtful ones, in which we ponder and use ahs and hmms - just saying.

janfromthebruce

poll at Torstar and globe asking you to vote on who won - I voted! And you should too!

KeyStone

I didn't like the way Andrea brought in so many seemingly fabricated anecdotes such as the one where she met a part time student who had apparently analyzed both the Liberal and NDP platforms in detail, and determined that the Liberal plan would crush her. The worst one of course, was the one where her son allegedly fractured his elbow, went to the hospital and they told him they couldn't afford a sling, so they just sent him home? Come on. That's embarassing.

 

She also repeated the same phrases over and over: putting X first. It was tiresome.
Then again Jack did a lot of that as well. She definitely seemed to be imitating Jack's style

Life, the unive...

Niether of your summations of her points are true.  She said he was sent home without treating the fracture.  And the student talked about the NDP plan, not the Liberal one.  It was Andrea Horwath that moved from the story to an analysis of the comments.  You reveal your bias by making up claims about making up claims.

N.R.KISSED

janfromthebruce wrote:

Actually Hudak looked angry at different times and not genuine. And I liked that Andrea said hmm, and ah, because she sounded like how most people talk. There is a part of people where unconsciously we relate to people who appear like us and most people don't hav smooth answers but thoughtful ones, in which we ponder and use ahs and hmms - just saying.

I only listened on the radio and it sounded like Hudak was sneering the entire time kind of like Harper really

adma

When I think of Harper, I think of stodgy gravitas.  Hudak doesn't have that.  Maybe his talking points are generically "Harperesque"; but not his way of conveying them.

If he wanted to cinch a win in a manner that suited his background, what Hudak *should* have aimed for throughout this election was a Brad Wall-esque affability.

janfromthebruce

 

That's interesting N.R., in how you would hear the leaders tones and tempo of speech sounds and thus pickup what I visibly witnessed.

N.R.KISSED wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

Actually Hudak looked angry at different times and not genuine. And I liked that Andrea said hmm, and ah, because she sounded like how most people talk. There is a part of people where unconsciously we relate to people who appear like us and most people don't hav smooth answers but thoughtful ones, in which we ponder and use ahs and hmms - just saying.

I only listened on the radio and it sounded like Hudak was sneering the entire time kind of like Harper really

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

Stockholm

The first post-debate poll shows Horwath gained the most!

14% thought she would win before the debate and 29% thought she won afterwards - just 4 points behind McGuinty at 33%

http://www.globaltoronto.com/pages/story.aspx?id=6442490737#onpoli

 

Fidel

I think it's a setup. After listening to the two blithering idiots, McGuilty and Hudak, I am convinced they are both trying to throw this election to the NDP. They know that what's left of Ontario is scorched earth. Horwath should be more cautious about laying waste to them in debates like this. She annihilated them, and she should be careful about what she and the ONDP wish for.

Howard

She was excellent. Very impressive for a first campaign.

NorthReport

Looking good, looking very good!

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1060748--horwath-pro...

 

Rebecca West wrote:

The Ontario Leaders' debate is on now ... Andrea Horwath is very strong, doing well.

edmundoconnor

Horwath beating Hudak, only six points from McGuinty. I want to know the odds for how long it will take the Liberals to spread the rumour Horwath's policy adviser is Lord Sauron.

Stockholm

It gets even better! The post debate poll says 67% of viewers had an improved impression of Andrea after the debate - that is off the chart and even higher then what Layton got on that question after he aced the leaders debate in April!

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5350

JeffWells

Thanks Stockholm, that's very encouraging!

Also (and despite the ridiculous headline):

Quote:
Debate crowns NDP leader homecoming queen
 
By Joanne Chianello, The Ottawa Citizen September 27, 2011 11:10 PM

"- the NDP leader seemed the most genuine. When she told a story about a woman on the streets of Ottawa giving her a hug over an NDP education-related promise, Horwath does so naturally. And she is the only leader who can tell that kind of story because she’s the only leader who’s done any significant mainstreeting during this election campaign.

...
...
"Horwath is trying to set herself up as a very different choice, mostly though her promise to raise the corporate tax rate to 14 per cent, while the Liberals and the Tories want to lower it to 10 per cent. She pointed out that even with her proposed increase, Ontario’s corporate taxes would be lower that the average rate of the Great Lakes states, lower than Japan’s. “We don’t need to give that blank cheque to companies,” she repeated."

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Joanne+Chianello+Debate+crowns+leader+...

Lens Solution

janfromthebruce wrote:

Actually Hudak looked angry at different times and not genuine. And I liked that Andrea said hmm, and ah, because she sounded like how most people talk. There is a part of people where unconsciously we relate to people who appear like us and most people don't hav smooth answers but thoughtful ones, in which we ponder and use ahs and hmms - just saying.

I thought the silliest thing Hudak said was when he said his daughter could spell out the name of any agency in Ontario using fridge magnets.

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

@CP24 Toronto

The only official account of CP24 -

Toronto's Breaking News (tweets)

http://www.cp24.com

 

CP24 asked more than 700 people who participated in our online chat, who won the debate? Horwath: 42%, McGuinty: 34%, Hudak: 25%

http://twitter.com/#!/CP24/status/118840363644489729

 

 

 

"At tonight's Ontario Leaders' Debate, Horwath "surprised many" (Leslie Roberts, Global TV) with an "assertive" (Adam Radwanski, Globe and Mail) and "surefooted performance" (Robert Benzie, Toronto Star) - "rais[ing] the bar on the debate." (Ann Douglas, Toronto Star)"

 

Andrea Horwath is scoring big on the sincerity front. I like her style.
- Ann Douglas, Toronto Star

 

Hudak [is] coming across as slick and processed right now by comparison [to Horwath].
- Kady O'Malley, CBC

 

Why didn't Dalton respond to Catherine, the person who asked the question, when Andrea... remembered her name?
- Christina Blizzard, Toronto Sun

 

"Don't give blank cheques to companies," says Andrea Horwath, distancing herself from both opponents.
- Karen Howlett, Globe and Mail

 

Horwath speaking about changing priorities...not add extra profits in system (like ceo salaries)
- Katie Franzios, Newstalk 1010

 

It's *the* way Horwath differentiates from her opponents bc she'd raise [corporate taxes]
- Genevieve Tomney, CBC

 

Horwath is placing herself as "above the fray"...but she's waded in herself in this debate with some real jabs
- Genevieve Tomney, CBC

 

Horwath getting message out while the two others argue.
- Leslie Roberts, Global Television

 

There it is - Horwath opens arms, gestures to the other two and says "both of these gentleman" and calls for change.
- Paul Bliss, CTV

 

http://ontariondp.com/en/ndps-horwath-calls-for-change-and-is-heard-loud...


howeird beale

Hudak mentions how his daughter needed to 'spend a lot of time at Women's College Hospital,' looking all cow-eyed as he said so.

Course no mention that his team were the assholes who tried to strip Women's College of its independence.

howeird beale

Horwath came across as, laid back, caring, smart, and tough. She was getting some good jabs in at the other two without looking like a jerk. The advice given to Miller springs to mind : "levitate, levitate, levitate."

 

I think McGuinty and Hudak must have picked out each others' ties. What was that purple thing around Hudak's neck? it looks like he beamed back to 1974 and swiped it outta my mum's scarf drawer.

 

He went to a restaurant unaware that a tie was required to be seated. He liked the tie they provided so much he wore it to the debate.

nicky

Also from the Ipsos poll (although no actual numbers provided):

 

With the NDP leader performing so well compared to expectations, it is interesting to note that one in ten (14%) viewers say they changed their mind about who they were going to vote for as a result of what they saw tonight, with the NDP appearing to be the biggest beneficiary among those who viewed the debates and reportedly switched their vote.

nicky

Incidentally, I was polled last night for the second time by the Hudak campaign in Toronto Centre of all places. What gives?

Krago

If you check out the detailed tables, the weighted voter intention is: Lib 37.5%, PC 33.5%, NDP 26.1%, Others (incl. Green) 2.9%

Stockholm

I noticed that as well, but keep in mind that the sub-sample of people who watched the debate and who agreed to do a post-debate survey is not necessarily representative of the entire voting population. Still those numbers are not inconsistent with the Ekos poll yesterday apart from less Green/Other

edmundoconnor

Lens Solution wrote:

I thought the silliest thing Hudak said was when he said his daughter could spell out the name of any agency in Ontario using fridge magnets.

I for one would be fascinated to know what agencies XXX and ZZZ do.

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