Ontario 2011 Election Campaign 3

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Krago
howeird beale

OnTheLeft wrote:

howeird beale wrote:

The NDP is not without influence from some dirty industries and their unions.

Not the dirty industries but their unions and that's okay, because despite the fact that they work in a dirty industry, we shouldn't turn our backs on these workers.

Logically, we dont have to. Nuclear is such a money pit you could put every member of the power workers into sinecures and still save money. Of course, these are excellent workers, so you dont have to do that either, you put them to work in more cost effective, competitive renewables positions.

Andrea asked McGuinty why a public Koean company was running our energy programme, and segued into asking why not return to public energy.

It was wonderful

But if we're gonna bring in another NDP government that says phasing out nuclear 'requires more study,' I'm not in.

A minority requires action by the people of this province taking to the streets en masse. Demanding immediate time tables for decommission.

josh

"It is lovely to see a woman at the top, but Andrea Horwath has chosen old-school populism instead of leadership on the tough issues."

Old-school populism? What's wrong with that? As opposed to neo-liberal corporate Blairism? I guess her ideal of leadership on the tough issues is the current Greek government.

lil.Tommy

This is a pleasant surprise to say the least! In May the NDP were basically tied with the Liberals, to be endorsed by the regions largest paper really says something. Could this be a new wave in a region previously thought a dead zone for the NDP? Ottawa Centre for sure is a target but now does this push Kingston and the Islands, Peterborough, Ottawa-Vanier... into competiton?

This is my hometown riding, my first campaign was working for Elaines daughter in 99. Back then we were excited we broke 2000votes! Cornwall is more a centrist type of small town, very working class but Liberal due to the huge french catholic tradition. I found it rather more socially conservative especially in the townships as you can see by the huge conservative vote federally. In the 70's the NDP held the old riding of Cornwall (i was shocked too) but typically its been Liberals since i was a kid.

Howard

If you believe the Forum poll, then Kingston and the Islands is definitely in play, and the Liberal margins in Ottawa are probably not all that stable. Unfortunately, with the exception of Ottawa Centre, I see most of Ottawa voting Tory (e.g. Mayor Larry O'Brien) before they vote NDP. If the NDP made a bigger play for the less tony francophone and visible minority areas of Ottawa, that might begin to change. One thing that keeps Ottawa red is McGuinty's seat.

edmundoconnor

josh wrote:

"It is lovely to see a woman at the top, but Andrea Horwath has chosen old-school populism instead of leadership on the tough issues."

Old-school populism? What's wrong with that? As opposed to neo-liberal corporate Blairism? I guess her ideal of leadership on the tough issues is the current Greek government.

I believe old-school populism worked for a certain Prairie politician. He was rather successful. I can't remember his name, though.

edmundoconnor

Krago wrote:

The OFL polled in nine ridings.  Five show NDP leads and three are neck-and-neck.

I wonder what is the ninth riding?

Thunder Bay--Atikokan, where the NDP leads the Liberals by five points.

clambake
NorthReport
Sean in Ottawa

Re Ottawa Vanier:

This was a longtime Francophone Liberal seat where the Liberals have had up to 70% of the vote.

Things are changing:

Demographically there are more immigrants in the riding than years ago and theya re not voting as a bock for Liberals; French is a minority now; there is more vareity in housing -- more condos, more upscale developments on the edges, more renovated older homes now at higher values, still a lot of low income apartments and well off-- riding includes Rockliffe as well.

The vote is changing as well as both the Conservatives and NDP have been increasing and Liberals decreasing. The riding in my opinion will become a real 3-party battle within a couple elections. Within 20 years I think it will be known as a "swing riding." Long way from Liberal coronation from only a decade ago.

Others can reply but that's my opinion...

Sean in Ottawa

Re HST etc.

The argument the right wing environmentalists make is that by raising the price of energy you will get conservation. They argue that the market can make the switch to greener decisions through price.

I lack this faith in the market and have pointed out a few times that with increased concentration of wealth, richer people will still blast the AC through monster homes and drive monster SUVs long after lower income people are consigned to shivering in the dark. The belief in a market solution with this level of social inequity is a fantasy bordering on a fraud. the reality is social sustainability and environmental sustainability are not separable.

The low income people who receive credits for the HST are in many cases only marginally if at all better off for the transition and new policies from the NDP could easily replace any lost benefits for the HST. The argument that the NDP will hurt those who benefit from compensation is a weak one since it assumes all other policies will remain the same and that those credits leave low income people better off than they really are. Governments high-balled the benefits of the credits and low-balled the costs of the HST. Still I acknowledge some replacement for the few who gained more through the credits than the HST cost them can and should be brought in.

NorthReport

In the SW USA where I just returned from, you pretty much have access to AC or you will probably die.

lil.Tommy

Jagmeet (according to this poll atleast, let my heart settle) is leading in Bramalea-Gore-Malton! that would be an incredible vicotry for not only the NDP but for young people (his campaign looks to have a huge contingent of young volunteers).

This poll to me has slightly more validity as they used the candidates names as well, the forum poll from what i remember used just the party

Olly

I would say that has less legitmacy. People don't vote for candidates, they vote for the party.

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

Sun News of all media outlets reported on the Forum poll which the OFL commissioned:

Poll shows NDP ahead in some key ridings

 

By , Queen's Park Bureau Chief

First posted: Friday, September 30, 2011 04:00 AM EDT

The Ontario Federation of Labour has commissioned a new poll that shows New Democrats leading or competitive in a number of key ridings.

OFL President Sid Ryan said Thursday that the organization hired the same firm responsible for a recently published poll, Forum Research Inc., but the results were quite different.

"I didn't believe it," Ryan said of the previous poll, that showed strong NDP incumbents in trouble in their ridings.

The OFL used the same firm, the same questions, but asked twice as many people their voting intentions, he said.

"We used the same company so people can't say that the methodology is any different," Ryan, a former NDP candidate, said.

The poll found "convincing leads" for the NDP in five of the nine ridings surveyed.

In particular, NDP incumbent Cheri DiNovo had a 15% advantage over her nearest competitor in Parkdale-High Park, while the NDP was also leading in Trinity-Spadina, Timmins-James Bay and Beaches-East York.

The previous poll showed DiNovo trailing her competitor.

The poll results also show an 8% advantage to the NDP in York South-Weston which is currently held by a Liberal incumbent.

The NDP are in neck and neck races in Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Sudbury and Thunder Bay-Superior North, the poll shows.

Ontarians were also asked which party would be their second choice and 29% put down the NDP, 25% would go to the Liberals and 13% would opt to vote Tory.

And 60% of those voting Liberal said the NDP is their second choice, while the Liberals are the second choice of 47% of those voting NDP.

Forum Research interviewed 6,239 Ontarians in nine ridings on Sept. 26 and 27, and the results are considered accurate plus or minus 3.8%.

 

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/09/29/poll-shows-ndp-aheas-in-some-key-ridings

 

Posted by Ontario Labour on Facebook:

 

Trinity-Spadina:

Rosario Marchese NDP: 47%

Sarah Thomson Lib: 33%

Mike Yen Con: 12%

Tim Grant Green: 7%

 

Timmins-James Bay:

Gilles Bisson NDP: 46.9%

Al Spacek Con: 33.4%

Leonard Rickard Lib: 15.4%

Angela Plant Green: 2.8%

 

Thunder Bay-Superior North:

Michael Gravelle Lib: 34.9%

Steve Mantis NDP: 33.9%

Anthony LeBlack Con: 25.4%

Scott Kyle Green: 5.3%

 

Thunder Bay-Atikokan:

Mary Kozorys NDP: 37.4%

Bill Mauro Lib: 32%

Fred Gilbert Con: 26%

Jonathan Milnes Green: 4.2%

 

Sudbury:

Paul Loewenberg NDP: 37.9%

Rick Bartolucci Lib: 37%

Gerry Labelle Con: 19.3%

Pat Rogerson Green: 4.1%

 

Parkdale-High Park:

Cheri DiNovo NDP: 46.7%

Cortney Pasternak Lib: 32%

Joe Ganetakos Con: 15.3%

Justin Trottier Green: 4.6%

 

Bramalea-Gore-Malton:

Jagmeet Singh NDP: 34.1%

Kuldip Kular Lib: 31.6%

Sanjeev Manji Con: 26.4%

Pauline Thomhan Green: 6%

 

Beaches-East York:

Michael Prue NDP: 44.1%

Helen Burstyn Lib: 33.1%

Chris Menary Con: 17.8%

Shawn Ali Green: 2.5%

 

York South-Weston:

Paul Ferriera NDP: 44%

Laura Albanese Lib: 36%

Lan Daniel Con: 15.2%

Keith Jarret Green: 3.3%

 

Complete report from the OFL:

http://www.ofl.ca/uploads/misc/2011.09.27-Election-Poll.pdf

 

 

 

lil.Tommy

No i disagree, voters are all over the map on that one. If you have a strong candidate, a popular or well known candidate, one who has simply been in place and is seen as a good MPP can sometimes mean more than the party... Yes generally speaking people will vote for the party, but in FPTP your local candidate can trump the party. Plus on the ballot the candidates name is at least twice as large the parties and (someone correct me here) the parties name used to not even be on the ballots.

 

Stockholm

Olly wrote:

I would say that has less legitmacy. People don't vote for candidates, they vote for the party.

I agree that people vote more for the party than for the local candidate, BUT i think that a riding poll one week before election day is more valid if it reads the names of the local candidates since when people vote - the local candidate name is what they see on the ballot (with the party name in fine print!).

Olly

It's true they see the candidate's name, but as a measure of voting intention I think the party is a better measure. From memory, the candidate's name only contributes about 6% to the total vote in the riding, the party the rest. For a really high profile candidate it might be 10%.

At any rate, I don't think those particular NDP seats are at all at risk. Don't think other than York South Weston those Liberal ones are either.

NorthReport

Unfortunately to a large extent, I agree.

Olly wrote:

I would say that has less legitmacy. People don't vote for candidates, they vote for the party.

Stockholm

Olly, The poll gives people the party name AND the candidate name.

I'm not sure what planet you live on - but if you seriously think that that Liberal seats like the two Thunder Bay seats, Sudbury and Bramalea-Gore-Malton are "not at all at risk" - it must be Mars or Venus!

Its pretty common knowledge that Liberal support is in total collapse in northern Ontario and Thunder Bay and Sudbury all went NDP by massive landslides federally - so you'd have to drinking nothing but Liberal bathwater to think that none of those seats was at risk. BGM is the heart of 905 swing country  and has a very weak Liberal incumbent and an NDP candidate who came within 500 votes of winning federally - I hope Liberals really are as complacent and over-confident as you seem to be in those ridings - it will make it even more certain that they will all go NDP on Oct. 6!

NorthReport

You are making my heart sing Stock.  :)

Olly

Its pretty common knowledge that Liberal support is in total collapse in northern Ontario and Thunder Bay and Sudbury all went NDP by massive landslides federally - so you'd have to drinking nothing but Liberal bathwater to think that none of those seats was at risk. BGM is the heart of 905 swing country  and has a very weak Liberal incumbent and an NDP candidate who came within 500 votes of winning federally - I hope Liberals really are as complacent and over-confident as you seem to be in those ridings - it will make it even more certain that they will all go NDP on Oct. 6!

Ha, remember you said that! Only question is whether Liberals win a majority.

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

Another long thread!

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