Ontario 2011 Election Campaign 4

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Krago
Ontario 2011 Election Campaign 4

Oh, don't act so surprised.

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Krago
NorthReport

Nanos poll just released showing the NDP within 12% of the leading party.

 

NDP - 26%

Libs - 38%

PCs - 34%

JeffWells

[url=http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/OntarioVotes/2011/09/30/18765826.html... now, Leger:[/url]

Con: 34%

Lib: 32%

NDP: 29%

Five point spread!

Sean in Ottawa

Wow -- very poorly written-- looks like a leadership poll not party support:

The poll found voter support for Conservative leader Tim Hudak fell slightly, to 34% of decided post-debate voters.

Premier Dalton McGuinty also fell marginally, to 32%, and Horwath is close on his heels at 29%, the poll shows.

 

Either that or some clever misrepresentation-- perhaps this is in fact a leadership poll

edmundoconnor

So the floor (floor!) in this latest batch of polls is 25%. Truly, a new world.

Restricting my analysis to Toronto and GTA (as this is where my expertise lies) we are on course with for a repeat of the federal results with BGM taking the place of SRR. Bas Balkissoon is going to be rattled by Neethan Shan, but I'm now not sure whether the orange wave will surmount Bas's battlements. However, I think Jagmeet Singh will soon be wowing pretty much everyone at Queen's Park very soon.

MegB

Pollsters are only a hair's breadth away from public relations firms - they don't reflect reality so much as they create it on a client's behalf.

I've done a lot of driving around southern Ontario over the past few weeks, and I'm seeing a huge NDP presence.  Critical of the NDP I may be, but I'm truly hoping for a Liberal minority with Andrea Horwath's NDPs in Opposition.

NorthReport

Good post Becca.

There is only one reason political polls are published - manipulation!

knownothing knownothing's picture

The way pundits are talking on the news it sounds like there is a chance the NDP could pull out a minority government.

wage zombie

Would the Tories keep McGuinty in power to avoid it?

bekayne

Remember voter turnout. The Tories will end up with 2 to 3% more on Election day than they are showing in the polls.

Aristotleded24

knownothing wrote:
The way pundits are talking on the news it sounds like there is a chance the NDP could pull out a minority government.

Unlikely. I have a feeling that the right flank of the Liberal Party is about to bail to Hudak to stop the socialist hordes from banging down the gates, just like what happened federally.

Krago
MegB

Polls aside, with a Liberal minority gov't and a tory opposition, very little of the progressive agenda would be accomplished.  With a Tory minority and Liberal opposition, pretty much the same thing - Right Lite.  Gone are the days when, in Ontario, a minority gov't meant progressive legislation.  We MUST have the NDP in Opposition.  That is the only way we can prevent more damage to the province, limit the Family Compact, and see some way forward.

Minority gov'ts don't last long here (with the exception of Bill Davis's PCs, and that was a whole different world), but it stands to reason that any minority gov't must have the NDP as Opposition so that whatever damage that either Libs or PCs might do will be mitigated.  It will also pave the way for an NDP gov't that will have less of an ordeal by fire than the Rae NDP did, when they campaigned without expecting to win and govern.

Aristotleded24

Rebecca West wrote:
Polls aside, with a Liberal minority gov't and a tory opposition, very little of the progressive agenda would be accomplished.  With a Tory minority and Liberal opposition, pretty much the same thing - Right Lite.  Gone are the days when, in Ontario, a minority gov't meant progressive legislation.  We MUST have the NDP in Opposition.  That is the only way we can prevent more damage to the province, limit the Family Compact, and see some way forward.

Exactly, and that has been our experience in Manitoba. Gary Filmon was pretty far to the right, but the NDP opposition made Filmon's mis-steps stick and has undone some of the damage from that era. So effective was that tactic that the NDP can still win an election by running against a Premier who hasn't been in office for 12 years.

Comme j'ai dit des autre fois, [url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F73mSyeL3j0=]libérez nous des libéreaux[/url]

bekayne

The last poll to show an increase in Conservative support was the Nanos poll in August. 16 polls ago.

Policywonk

Aristotleded24 wrote:

knownothing wrote:
The way pundits are talking on the news it sounds like there is a chance the NDP could pull out a minority government.

Unlikely. I have a feeling that the right flank of the Liberal Party is about to bail to Hudak to stop the socialist hordes from banging down the gates, just like what happened federally.

Unlikely, since it's not entirely clear if the Liberals or Conservatives are ahead. If the Liberals and the NDP were reversed, that might be true.

Aristotleded24

Policywonk wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

knownothing wrote:
The way pundits are talking on the news it sounds like there is a chance the NDP could pull out a minority government.

Unlikely. I have a feeling that the right flank of the Liberal Party is about to bail to Hudak to stop the socialist hordes from banging down the gates, just like what happened federally.

Unlikely, since it's not entirely clear if the Liberals or Conservatives are ahead. If the Liberals and the NDP were reversed, that might be true.

Even if the NDP isn't in second, as they stand they could be king-makers in a minority/coalition government. The best way to stop that would be to vote for a PC majority.

As for the Liberals and NDP reversed, there are still 6 days left, the NDP and Liberals are statistically tied according to some polls, and I will be surprised if the Liberals do better than third place.

Policywonk

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Policywonk wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

knownothing wrote:
The way pundits are talking on the news it sounds like there is a chance the NDP could pull out a minority government.

Unlikely. I have a feeling that the right flank of the Liberal Party is about to bail to Hudak to stop the socialist hordes from banging down the gates, just like what happened federally.

Unlikely, since it's not entirely clear if the Liberals or Conservatives are ahead. If the Liberals and the NDP were reversed, that might be true.

Even if the NDP isn't in second, as they stand they could be king-makers in a minority/coalition government. The best way to stop that would be to vote for a PC majority.

As for the Liberals and NDP reversed, there are still 6 days left, the NDP and Liberals are statistically tied according to some polls, and I will be surprised if the Liberals do better than third place.

And ensure an NDP opposition? I don't think they will do that if they still feel they have a chance of forming government.

Doug

That might happen if the NDP get much closer to first place in the end-of-campaign polls than they are now but I'm not sure if it's likely. The Ontario Liberals have had a much better campaign than the Federal Liberals had.

Fidel

Youre supposed to talk about coalitions after the election not before. We should at least try to pretend it's a legit voting system before fraudulent elections take place and millions of votes are actually counted(and wasted, cancelled, not cast and even spoiled). So until October 666th, the policy should be: No Prisoners!

Flaherty endorses Hudak Tories saying Ontario can't afford McGuinty One fiscal Frankenstein endorses another

Flaherty only reigned over an increase of $35 billion in provincial debt. And that was during a period of post-1994 economic recovery from the neoliberal voodoo in Ontario, too.

knownothing knownothing's picture
howeird beale

knownothing wrote:

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Ontario+candidate+says+Tories+Liberals+...

Why should someone have to apologize for this?

"If Mr. Charif describes it in a way that's jarring, then you know what? I think it's a jarring fact, and I think it's a jarring fact we all have to face."

 

I think his comments are a little over the top, but good for her. A lot of male politicians would have panicked at the potential political dynamite, but she refused to throw him under the bus.

I think it also shows, in reference to a former candidate, that she's not so intolerant of people who are socialist within the party, she just doesnt suffer fools gladly.

I guess "atta girl" is right out, huh?

*sigh*

howeird beale

Rebecca West wrote:

Polls aside, with a Liberal minority gov't and a tory opposition, very little of the progressive agenda would be accomplished. We MUST have the NDP in Opposition. It will also pave the way for an NDP gov't that will have less of an ordeal by fire than the Rae NDP did, when they campaigned without expecting to win and govern.

 

I totally disagree. The libs and the tories could make a deal not to defeat each ohter for three years and then ram through all sorts of awful austerity measures, corporate tax breaks, massively ramp up privatization of hospitals, etc, etc. And then Dalton could say, "oh, how it breaks my heart the things they made us do. Just give me a majority again and I'll undo the damage those visigoths inflicted on our blessed mother province."

Andrea's gotta be a wiz to outmaneuver these weasels, I dont think the Dips are ready to take the reigns single-handed, but how you could say we'd be better off with the corporate coalition party rather than a minority dependant on the NDP is beyond me. The NDP will force Dalton to do good things, Dalton will say he did them despite the NDP and then Andrea will take the throne anyway.

And she'll be ready. And so will her team.

But, again, if this is what goes down people have to moblize on the NDP, and force them to do the right things. A nice friendly rally of 25,000 people demanding we go back to public power generation. A nice friendly rally of 100,000 people demanding no more private health care and no more delisting of sevices.

I think 1,000 people with their arms in cloth slings, outside, say, Mr. Shein's constituency office,  before the legislature resumes sitting again sounds nice.

Aristotleded24

howeird beale wrote:
Rebecca West wrote:
Polls aside, with a Liberal minority gov't and a tory opposition, very little of the progressive agenda would be accomplished. We MUST have the NDP in Opposition. It will also pave the way for an NDP gov't that will have less of an ordeal by fire than the Rae NDP did, when they campaigned without expecting to win and govern.

I totally disagree. The libs and the tories could make a deal not to defeat each ohter for three years and then ram through all sorts of awful austerity measures, corporate tax breaks, massively ramp up privatization of hospitals, etc, etc. And then Dalton could say, "oh, how it breaks my heart the things they made us do. Just give me a majority again and I'll undo the damage those visigoths inflicted on our blessed mother province."

How did that work out for Michael Ignatieff?

Stockholm

Let's keep in mind that minority governments are nothing new in Ontario. In 1975 we elected 51 PCs, 38 NDP and 36 Liberals. The PCs under Davis made deals vote by vote with the NDP and Liberals, then they engineered their own defeat in 1977 thinking they could regain their majority and instead they got 58 seats while the Libs got 34 and the NDP got nipped for the official opposition with 33 and so for a full four year term, Davis continued to make deals on an ad hoc basis - it all worked so well and he became so popular for being bland and consensual that he finally regained his majority in 1981 (mostly at the expense of the NDP under Cassidy who dropped to 21 seats).

In 1985, the Liberals did their accord with the NDP and for two years did all kinds of popular things - then took the credit and won a massive majority in 1987!

edmundoconnor

Usually I'd be the first making these historical parallels, Stockholm, but Hudak isn't Bill Davis and McGuinty isn't David Peterson. McGuinty has very clearly indicated (see today's Sun) that co-operation will be done over his dead body (although politically-speaking, given the vipers nest that the Liberals are, that could be arranged - with possibly someone with proven 'progressive' credentials who could make deals with the NDP … like Glen Murray). And Hudak isn't going to make any deals with the NDP, not given his party. I think the PCs might clean house and replace him with the Hillbilly. If that happens, all bets are off.

howeird beale

Who's the hillbilly?

Stockholm

edmundoconnor wrote:

McGuinty has very clearly indicated (see today's Sun) that co-operation will be done over his dead body.

He says that now - but after election day you better believe that McGuinty will be willing to do ANYTHING to stay in power. Power is everything to him. If the NDP demanded that McGuinty sacrifice his first born son in public on October 7th in exchange for letting him pass a Throne Speech - it will be a race to see how quickly he does it.

edmundoconnor

Randy Hillier.

howeird beale

ahhh, they might let him be interim leader, but I think they know he'd be poison to their chances

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

I wouldn't doubt the growing influence of the Ontario Landowners Association over the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party.

Life, the unive...

I'm not so sure we aren't looking at the possibility of Ms Premier.  This is a very big change in NDP numbers since even the spring federal election.  This puts into play a whole bunch of ridings like Essex, Huron-Bruce, Brant, London-Fanshawe, other London ridings and some other key ridings.  The times they are a changin'

http://www.lfpress.com/news/ontarioelection/2011/09/30/18765776.html#/news/ontarioelection/2011/09/30/pf-18765776.html

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

OnTheLeft wrote:

I wouldn't doubt the growing influence of the Ontario Landowners Association over the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party.

That group is really pushing for property rights.

edmundoconnor

.

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

Boom Boom wrote:

That group is really pushing for property rights.

I think that Norm Sterling, John Tory and even Ernie Eves would beg to differ, as well as the rest of the PCs who don't want their party overtaken by anti-science yahoo rednecks.

NorthReport

Absolutely superb article for the NDP Life - tks for sharing it here!

 

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

I'm not so sure we aren't looking at the possibility of Ms Premier.  This is a very big change in NDP numbers since even the spring federal election.  This puts into play a whole bunch of ridings like Essex, Huron-Bruce, Brant, London-Fanshawe, other London ridings and some other key ridings.  The times they are a changin'

http://www.lfpress.com/news/ontarioelection/2011/09/30/18765776.html#/news/ontarioelection/2011/09/30/pf-18765776.html

NorthReport

Typical Liberal Toronto Star anti-NDP smear job but actually will probably help the NDP

http://www.thestar.com/article/1063112--cohn-time-to-assess-horwath-s-re...

Wilf Day

Momentum Rally:
1:00PM
Location: Polish Combatant's Association, 206 Beverley St, Toronto

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

Hill & Knowlton Election Predictor - Seats:

 

Liberal: 41 Progressive Conservative: 38 NDP: 28

 

http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/#/ontario+2011/poll/Leger-2011-10-01

oldgoat

Well that's interesting.  Hill and Knowlton is prediction an NDP win in Oshawa which will feel pretty damn good for people like me who have been knocking on doors and taking just about every eday off work to pull the vote since 1995.

 

Looking at their numbers, they seem to see a general flight from what's left of the Liberals out here going somewhat to the Conservatives, but mostly to the NDP, with the Green vote going NDP.

 

This is not impossible.  In Oshawa the Libs have been the party of last choice provencially pretty much since Mitch Hepburn crushed the auto worker's union with tanks on the streets, but they do have their core support.  Demographically though, over the years we're becoming less defined as a union town, and more just another 905 bedroom community.  Except for the Chretien wave though, the Libs have never really gotten off the ground here.  Further, the Lib riding association has been going through some nasty turmoil, and they only came up with some no-name candidate at the last minute.  You may recall in the federal election, they had to parachute someone in from outside.  It was the president of the Thornhill ridiing association for heaven sake!  Not a bad sort actually, probably could have done well in Thornhill.

The con incumbant of many years, Jerry Oulette, is a fairly good constituency politician who otherwise keeps his head down.  Nice enough fellow actually, but a bit of a tree stump.  Gets his face in the local Tory rag now and then teaching groups of children how to fly fish, and planting trees with cubscouts and stuff.  His edge is that he's genuinely a passionate outdoorsman, and is actually quite good with kids.  local paper loves him.

The NDP has run some really good people, but have never managed to get quite close enough. Current candidate Mike Shields is the former CAW president out here, but more than just an old union dinosaur although that's how the media and the Cons are trying to brand him.  He is a genuine progressive and would make a wonderful addition to the caucus.

 

edmundoconnor

I wouldn't treat H&K's numbers with any real seriousness. They've tied the numbers much too closely to the 2007 figures, and simply adjusted from there. Looking at the riding-by-riding, it has the NDP winning York West and Scarborough Guildwood, but not Scarborough Southwest. No.

Additional: 60%+ for Paul Ferreira in YSW? I'm predicting an NDP win there, but I can't see the Liberals imploding *that* much.

oldgoat

umm..This site seems to believe that the incumbant in Trinity - Spadina is liberal Kate Holloway.  Rosario will be surprised.

 

(side note)  My son just moved to Trinity Spadina this summer, and has been rubbing my nose in his political representation on all levels ever since.Smile

Howard

At the beginning of the campaign the Liberals said that Horwath=Hudak. At the end of the campaign Hudak says Horwath=McGuinty. The truth is that ONDP has outmaneuvered both of them and is sliding up the middle.

Hudak is also missing his chance, having lost traction from the summer. His campaign is ringing hollow.

Stockholm

The fact that even the Toronto Sun refuses to endorse Hudak because they find him so wishy-washy speaks volumes.

nicky

This must be the first time ever that the Sun has not endorsed the Conservatives.

 

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/09/30/ontario-deserves-better

Stockholm

Hudak is like an empty vessel in which people can only see bad. He has the worst of both worlds - if you are an ideological rightwinger (like the people who write editorials for the Sun) you see him as wishy-washy and directionless and a coward. If you are progressive or centre left - you are convinced he has a hidden agenda is just "son of Mike Harris". Poor Tim.

Wilf Day

In 2003, faced with redistribution after the 2001 census, all parties pledged to maintain the North's 11 seats at Queen's Park, although it dropped to ten federally. They did so by grandfathering the existing ridings in the North, leaving them based on the 1991 census.

Google News can't find any discussion of the topic this election, although the 2011 census will show the population of the north has dropped again. Has no one really mentioned it? Has the North resigned itself to losing one or more ridings by the next election?

Howard

The NDP got a hair over 25% in Ontario during the last federal election. I'm optimistic the bar is about to be moved higher.

janfromthebruce

When the Sun won't endorse you, you know that you must have sucked during the debate if you are a conservative.

Stockholm

Now McGuinty is declaring that he refuses ANY form of cooperation with anyooen. He WILL NOT TALK to any other parties - its just his way or the highway "No coalition, no accord, no agreement, no entente". My response is WHAT ARROGANCE!!!

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