Ontario 2011 Election Campaign 4

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edmundoconnor

And a photo-finish in Sudbury!

knownothing knownothing's picture

Yeah I have emailed Ivison before and said, "Hey whats wrong with nationalization of industry? In Saskatchewan we have government run industry like Sasktel, Saskpower, Saskenergy, SGI, and others and we pay the most competitive prices in the country"

He did not respond

Stockholm

Debater wrote:

Someone above said they were hoping for another "orange crush".  Well, hopefully we won't get another one of those.  As we learned in the last federal election, when NDP support goes too high, it benefits the Conservatives, as outside of Quebec, all it did was crush Liberals and help Harper win a majority.  I don't think we want to see another orange crush tilt the election to Hudak, so hopefully NDP support will not rise above 25%, or that could happen.

There is a total fallacy here. What percentage of the vote did the NDP get in Ontario federally on May 2? 25.6%. What percentage of the vote do most polls including the latest Nanos poll project the Ontario NDP to get? about 25.6%. What is different is that the federal Tories took 45% of the vote in Ontario while the Ontario PCs are set to get about 35%.

If (as i expect) Ontario manages to avoid a Tim Hudak PC government - it will NOT be because there was less of an "orange crush" than there was in the federal election. The NDP will probably get just as high a vote provincially as they had federally. The difference is that MUCH fewer people are going to vote Conservative.

One of these days people will get it through their thick skulls that the way you defeat Conservatives is by getting fewer people to vote Conservative. Trying to "game the system" with weird and misleading "strategic voting" schemes fails 100% of the time.

Krago

Brand new Nanos poll this hour: Lib 37.7% PC 34.4% NDP 25.5% - Still waiting for the link

edmundoconnor

knownothing wrote:

Yeah I have emailed Ivison before and said, "Hey whats wrong with nationalization of industry? In Saskatchewan we have government run industry like Sasktel, Saskpower, Saskenergy, SGI, and others and we pay the most competitive prices in the country"

He did not respond

I don't want to tip Ivison's hand here, but I suspect he never will.

edmundoconnor

Doug wrote:

The Globe and Mail seems to be having a hissy fit over the NDP possibly having the balance of power.

First John Ivison in the National Post issues a stern warning about "the most dangerous woman in Ontario", now this. Keep it up, Andrea, you've got them worried.

"In an editorial board meeting, Ms. Horwath did not rule out nationalization of the auto insurance industry."

It's been such a failure in Saskatchewan, that it will be celebrating its 70th anniversary in the near future. Ontario Government Insurance? Bring. It. On.

It's also fun to read the comments underneath the article. Most readers seem to have also caught on to the Globe voiding its bowels while shamelessly issuing a critique of the ONDP direct from Bay Street. A number are saying they're switching their votes to the NDP because of this spiteful editorial.

knownothing knownothing's picture

howeird beale wrote:

[IMHO One outside factor that did help the tories was the death of Bin Laden. I think a lot of older, law-and-order voters were spooked into voting for the law-and-order party.

Yeah my tinfoil hat was ringing on that one too, but boy could that ever take this thread off topic.

nicky

I have had a back of an enveope look at the new Forum poll as compared to its poll published a week ago. It s a mixed bag. First of all, the story refers to 27 ridings polled but the chart only includes 23. The numbers for Parkdale HP are included in the story so 3 riding results are missing.

Of the other other 24:

Liberals gain in16, lose in 6 and are equal in 2.

Cons gain in 6 , lose in 16 and are equal in 2.

NDP gains in 8, loses in 13 and is equal in 3.

Libs gain Brampton Springdale, Oak Ridges and St Catherines form th Cons.

Cons gain Kitchener Waterloo from the Libs

NDP gains Brampton GM , Sudbury and Parkdale from the libs.

The pollster puts the shifts in Kitch Wat, St Cath and Parkdale down to this poll identifying popular incumbents by name where the original poll didn't

Overall a fairly marked shift to the Liberals, especially in the Peel seats in comparison to the Cons, as well as London.

Although there is an overall drop for the NDP this tends to be mostly in close Lib/Con races where the NDP was way back. The NDP however generally holds its own or advances in seats where it tis in contention.

howeird beale

Debater wrote:

As I mentioned above in my list, the Liberals already expect to lose Huron-Bruce anyway.

Re the federal election:

It happens to be a fact that the increase in the NDP vote in Liberal-held ridings across the country (Eg. starting in Moncton on the East Coast, proceeding over to ridings like Willowdale in the GTA, and continuing out west to Winnipeg South Centre) caused all these Liberal ridings to go Conservative.

 

Tosh!

What caused all those ridings to go consevative was the utterly inept campaign run by the Liberals, and especially Mr. Ignatieff. While the tories were making sure they went out to every cultural festival they could (like the Libs used to), Mr. Ignatieff couldnt be bothered. Mr Ignatieff couldnt be bothered to prep for the debate because he debated at UCC 40 years prior, and, therefore, was smarter than everybody else. Mr. Ignatieff took several days off during the campaign. Mr. Ignatieff, and Martin before him, parachuted (frequently white) buddies into ridings over the wishes of the local riding associations, destroying years of networking, and humiliating (frequently minority) individuals who should have got the nomination, thereby alienating entire communities.

He blew his own brains out.

And that's because, like the last generation of Eatons, he's a lazy, shiftless, arrogant, entitled, spoiled twerp.

IMHO One outside factor that did help the tories was the death of Bin Laden. I think a lot of older, law-and-order voters were spooked into voting for the law-and-order party.

bekayne

A comparison between the poll results & http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/ current projections (in brackets). The projection is based on a provincial vote of Lib-35.2%, PC-34.0%, NDP-25.2%, Green-4.3%

nicky wrote:

 

Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale (L, 41.2)

Lib 43.5 (35) PC 33.6 (37) NDP 16.2 (21) Gr 3.6 (5)

Bramalea-Gore-Malton (L, 47.0)

NDP 35.4 (19) Lib 31.7 (42) PC 24.4 (32) Gr 5.6 (6)

Brampton-Springdale (L, 50.7)

Lib 43.1 (44) PC 38.4 (33) NDP 13.8 (17) Gr 3.6 (4)

Kitchener Centre (L, 45.9)

PC 39.3 (28) Lib 37.3 (40) NDP 18.2 (27) Gr 3.5 (5)

Kitchener-Conestoga (L, 41.8)

PC 38.5 (41) Lib 37.6 (37) NDP 18.6 (18) Gr 4.1 (4)

Kitchener-Waterloo (PC, 40.8)

PC 40.5 (42) Lib 37.8 (25) NDP 16.7 (27) Gr 4.1 (5)

London North Centre (L, 47.2)

Lib 42.2 (41) PC 27.8 (26) NDP 23.7 (26) Gr 4.4 (7)

London West (L, 52.4)

Lib 45.1 (48) PC 27.4 (27) NDP 23.1 (18) Gr 3.2 (6)

Mississauga East-Cooksville (L, 58.9)

Lib 40.1 (50) PC 38.6 (29) NDP 14 (15) Gr 5.3 (4)

Mississauga-Erindale (L, 47.9)

Lib 41.9 (42) PC 36.8 (36) NDP 16.9 (17) Gr 3 (4)

Mississauga South (L, 46.7)

Lib 48.6 (42) PC 34.6 (38) NDP 11.8 (14) Gr 3.5 (5)

Niagara Falls (L, 47.5)

PC 36.2 (34) Lib 33.3 (41) NDP 26.9 (15) Gr 1.9 (6)

Oak Ridges-Markham (L, 48.2)

Lib 42.2 (43) PC 39.8 (40) NDP 12.1 (12) Gr 4.5 (4)

Ottawa South (L, 50.1)

Lib 44.9 (45) PC 37.6 (33) NDP 12.6 (15) Gr 3.8 (5)

Pickering-Scarborough East (L, 48.6)

Lib 47.7 (39) PC 32.4 (38) NDP 15.6 (19) Gr 3.2 (4)

Richmond Hill (L, 47.8)

Lib 42.4 (43) PC 37.4 (38) NDP 13.5 (14) Gr 5.9 (5)

St. Catharines (L, 47.2)

Lib 41.7 (40) PC 34.3 (30) NDP 17.7 (24) Gr 5 (4)

Sudbury (L, 58.8)

NDP 38.7 (39) Lib 38.1 (48) PC 17.2 (8) Gr 4 (3)

Thornhill (PC, 45.9)

PC 48.3 (49) Lib 38.3 (38) NDP 8.8 (8) Gr 2.3 (3)

Welland (NDP, 53.9)

NDP 42.1 (64) PC 33.4 (17) Lib 19.3 (16) Gr 3.7 (2)

Windsor-Tecumseh (L, 49.3)

Lib 40 (41) NDP 30.5 (36) PC 24.4 (18) Gr 4.5 (4)

Windsor West (L, 50.2)

Lib 35.6 (37) NDP 33.7 (41) PC 24.8 (19) Gr 3.6 (3)

York Centre (L, 48.7)

Lib 40.8 (43) PC 38.3 (35) NDP 15 (17) Gr 3.6 (4)

 

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

OnTheLeft wrote:
 

 

 

 

 

 

Krago wrote:
Brand new Nanos poll this hour: Lib 37.7% PC 34.4% NDP 25.5% - Still waiting for the link

 

 

 

 

Good grief, with those numbers, the Liberals could possibly win a slim majority with our worst past the post voting system.

 

 

bekayne

Which of the ridings in the Forum Poll are open seats?

Krago

Latest Nanos Nightly Tracking Poll (Oct. 1-3)

Lib 37.7%, PC 33.2%, NDP 25.8%, Green 2.1%

bekayne

Krago wrote:

Latest Nanos Nightly Tracking Poll (Oct. 1-3)

Lib 37.7%, PC 33.2%, NDP 25.8%, Green 2.1%

5% drop for the Tories with women voters

janfromthebruce

You know the forum polling and release really bothers me because really it's about "push polling" - see how close some races are and hope the NDP, as usual votes Liberal. But moreover I think it's about pushing the libs into majority territory. With Hudak bombing the way he has this week and the Sun not even endorsing the Con the only way his numbers can go are down. So the Star booegy scare tactic is as bad as the Globe's "red scare" tactic.

I think they see things in various polls that they are not being up and up about and so want to get those NDP numbers down and top the trend line up.

ghoris

OnTheLeft wrote:

Good grief, with those numbers, the Liberals could possibly win a slim majority with our worst past the post voting system.

Perhaps not even so slim. Rae won an 18-seat majority with 37.6 percent of the vote.

Lens Solution

John Ivison has been writing Conservative spin columns for a long time.

He should just come out and admit that he basically works for the Conservatives and drop his act of trying to look impartial.

He basically says in his column that a Liberal-NDP arrangement would be evil and is practically urging the Conservatives to engage in a fear-mongering campaign like Stephen Harper did.

Stockholm

janfromthebruce wrote:

You know the forum polling and release really bothers me because really it's about "push polling" - see how close some races are and hope the NDP, as usual votes Liberal.

I don't see that at all. Forum is a legitimate polling company. Their numbers in those individual ridings for the most part look intuitively right to me. They are the same company that polled 9 ridings for the OFL a few days ago and had the NDP winning in eight of them and 1% behind in the 9th. I see no bias whatsoever in this poll.

In any case "push polling" is not something we ever really see in Canada. In a "push poll" NO DATA IS COLLECTED. Every single voter in a riding gets robo-called by a fake company that is secretely funded by one of the campaigns. The call tells people it is a call from "Acme Polling" or some other generic sounding name and they are made to feel like they are being polled - but the questions are things like "If you know that candidate so-and so was a convicted child molester - would you be more or less likely to vote for him?". A "push poll" is not a poll at all - it is a way to surrepititiously spread innuendo about a candidate and it is a dirty trick. They do it a lot in the US.

Stockholm

ghoris wrote:

OnTheLeft wrote:

Good grief, with those numbers, the Liberals could possibly win a slim majority with our worst past the post voting system.

Perhaps not even so slim. Rae won an 18-seat majority with 37.6 percent of the vote.

True, but he also had a 5 point lead over the second place party. If the Liberals get 37.6% but are just 2 or 3 points ahead of the Tories - minority. If they are 4 or 5 points ahead probably majority.

Howard

Andrew Steele is scared

I'm somewhat hoping the Liberals finish third in seats. It would be lethal to their electoral chances both federally and provincially next go around.

janfromthebruce

I misrepresented what I was trying to get at. You are right it is not a "push-poll". But the TorStar pays for a poll, very large 2X. the 1st one, it releases individual riding numbers which only has 400 interviewed. They don't relability and is why CUPE did another poll in certain ridings but with 2x the number of people called.

I just think that the idea was to show people where it is at and without saying, encourage voters to "vote strategically".

 

 

Stockholm wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

You know the forum polling and release really bothers me because really it's about "push polling" - see how close some races are and hope the NDP, as usual votes Liberal.

I don't see that at all. Forum is a legitimate polling company. Their numbers in those individual ridings for the most part look intuitively right to me. They are the same company that polled 9 ridings for the OFL a few days ago and had the NDP winning in eight of them and 1% behind in the 9th. I see no bias whatsoever in this poll.

In any case "push polling" is not something we ever really see in Canada. In a "push poll" NO DATA IS COLLECTED. Every single voter in a riding gets robo-called by a fake company that is secretely funded by one of the campaigns. The call tells people it is a call from "Acme Polling" or some other generic sounding name and they are made to feel like they are being polled - but the questions are things like "If you know that candidate so-and so was a convicted child molester - would you be more or less likely to vote for him?". A "push poll" is not a poll at all - it is a way to surrepititiously spread innuendo about a candidate and it is a dirty trick. They do it a lot in the US.

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

Lens Solution

According to the Andrew Steele piece linked above, he says that the McGuinty events have been much better-attended than the events for Hudak and Horwarth.  I didn't know that.

Anyway, he seems to be saying that McGuinty is doing well because he is coming across as more optimistic, hopeful etc. and less negative than H & H.

He says that McGuinty may be more like Jack Layton than the other leaders.

I hadn't thought about it that way before, but it's an interesting idea.  Perhaps that can be a danger for leaders in opposition - they have to attack the incumbent's record, but at the same time they have to be careful not to come across as too negative.

Harper seemed to benefit from this in the last election - he would always put on a calm, confident demeanor and try to get his opponents riled up so that they would look too emotional to voters.  Perhaps McGuinty is benefiting from some of the same techniques that Harper used, combined with some of Layton's message?

Howard

The Liberals regularly got over 1000 supporters out to events in Montreal leading up to their (faceplant) finish in the 2011 federal election.

Lens Solution

 

The Globe and Mail seems to be writing a lot of negative headlines about Hudak in the final days.   This one contains some interesting information about the party machine apparatus, though.

 

'Hudak fights against backward momentum in Ontario election'

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-election/hudak-figh...

 

David Young

Would an NDP victory in Manitoba (and Liberal wipe-out?) have any spill-over effect in Ontario?

 

MegB

Continued here.

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