Ontario Election prediction threads...So, whaddya ya got?

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Ken Burch
Ontario Election prediction threads...So, whaddya ya got?

Seat Count

Vote Share

Number of souls sold to Satan(candidates only)

Predict it all.

 

Have at it, campers!

edmundoconnor

I'm not making an overall prediction, but I will make one for York South–Weston - Paul Ferreira to beat Laura Albanese. He's worked non-stop on campaigning, throwing everything, including the kitchen sink, at it. Albanese, seems to be half-hearted about keeping the seat, which shows through in her campaign.

knownothing knownothing's picture

I live in Sk and I knownothing of ontario politics so this will be the first election i follow closely

Maybe you folks could tell me what makes an Ontario election different from a federal election?

Ken Burch

Only people in Ontario get to vote in it.

(Plus, there's the weekly human sacrifices...but we're not allowed to talk about that under the provisions of the Elections Act).

ctrl190

52 - Lib

41 - Con

14 - NDP

Two members away from a majority, I expect some serious attempts at poaching by the Grits in November. I think the Cons will pick up mainly in Eastern and Southwestern Ontario, the more affluent less diverse GTA ridings like Oakville, in addition to Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre. The "foreign workers" comment will haunt Hudak in much of the 905.

 

NDP will pick up Hamilton Mountain and two northern Ontario ridings, plus add Davenport and York-South Weston. Welland will be close.

edmundoconnor

Who would the Libs poach, ctrl? I'm struggling to think of any NDP MPPs (incumbent or likely) who would cross the floor. Paul Ferreira has made himself an implacable foe of the Liberals, for example. And I don't really see any PCs trading in their principles for power. An accord (gulp) may be on the horizon in that case.

takeitslowly

liberals will lose badly by making an issue of the Tim Hudak's calling "immigrants" "foreigners"..

i think unfortuantely, the conservative will win a majority and the ndp will form the offical opposition..just like what happened on the federal election

 

the Ontario NDP has the best job plan -http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbFvsrSO3HE&feature=channel_video_title

it isnt the best, not by a long shot..but its still better than the other two

Aristotleded24

PC-57

NDP-27

Lib-23

David Young

I can see the NDP at least doubling it's seat count, and holding the balance of power in a minority government.

The questions are...

Who will have the most seats?

Will the Liberals collapse as they did in the federal election?

Can the Conservatives win enough for a clear majority, or would a 1985-type scenario be repeated?

As of now, I predict Conservatives - 45, Liberals - 35, NDP - 23.

Stay tuned!

 

Life, the unive...

I predict a minority government.  I just don't have a clue who will be leading it.  I think all three have a shot and it will come down to the debate.  

I think the Liberals have created their own faith based school funding like problem with their newcomer tax credit.   I was talking to a new Canadian this weekend who has been here about a decade.  He is a card carrying Liberal and could barely find the words to express his disgust.  He said he will never vote for McGuinty he has been so deeply offended.  He was proud of how he worked up from next to nothing and was really upset.  Hudak's comments, mixed with the Liberal policy, may drive a number of votes to the NDP.

Tommy_Paine

I expect some NDP gains if he mud slinging continues between Hudak and McGinty. 

I haven't seen polls of any kind even leading up to this, so I am going by my substantial gut.....

The more people see Hudak, I think the more they'll realize he is a bit nuts.  But, I think from watching the Liberal campaign so far, that they are crafting a GTA platform, which means they are on deffense and not offense.

I really don't see where they can craft a campaign based on growth. But the Conservatives and NDP can.

Things will start breaking about a week after the leaders debate, like they do in most elections.

Prediction for now?  Minority government, toss up between Hudak and McGinty.

 

Ken Burch

I'm wondering if Bob Rae will get confused and do ads attacking his OWN term as premier?   Wouldn't that be weirdly great?

janfromthebruce

Ontario leader's debate is September 27th and eday is Oct 6th. So if things break about a week after the leader's debate, why that's only 2 days until vote day - something tells me that window is a peep hole. So you may need to recalulate that Tommy. That's the problem, the debate is so much near the end of the campaign.

Ciabatta2

PC - 56 (near sweep in east/west GTA outer burbs, most of rural southern/eastern Ontario)

Liberal - 38 (smattering of seats all over, keep most seats in Ottawa, Toronto inner burbs, London)

NDP - 13 (lose Hampton's and Kormos', win Brown's, Ramsay's, Albanese's, Puapatello's and Ruprecht's)

This election is difficult to predict.  The NDP could sweep the north under the right conditions (+ 4 NDP gain, -1 and -3 PC and Lib, respectively) or rising PC support in the north could surprise and tank some NDP and Lib campaigns.  A strong NDP campaign could deliver Welland, FF-RR, Ham Mtn, L-F, Ottawa, and maybe York-West and a Scarborough seat too.  Rural Ontario is also a toss-up, depends how much support the Libs truly lose from wind and truly gain from their risk management 'program'.  Hudak is a wildcard, he doesn't have the widespread respect that Tory had, but he's been on message and I think has escaped much of the Harris baggage.

Ken Burch

Why are you so pessimistic about the NDP's chances?  Is it really that likely that Ontarians are STILL mad about what happened under the last ONDP government...a government lead by someone who's now the leader of a DIFFERENT party?

How long is it gonna take before the anger about that finally blows over?

Stockholm

I find this election very hard to read at this stage. I have a hunch the Tories will end up being the largest party, but they will be short of a majority and so McGuinty as the incumbent will make a deal with the NDP and will stay in power. I expect the final results will be something along the lines of PCs - 49, Liberals - 40 and NDP - 18 (NDP to hold all of the current 10 and gain Davenport, York South-Weston, Hamulton Mountain, Timiskaming-Cochrane, Thunder Bay Rainy River, Algoma-Manitoulin, Windsor West and one or two of the following: Essex, London-Fanshawe, Ottawa Centre, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Sudbury, Scarborough Rouge River, Bramalea-Gore-Malton)- if the NDP does really well and runs the tables on all the target seats it could mean as many as 25 seats.

Ciabatta2

Well, my wife says I'm wrong a lot. :)

There are a lot of other factors that would be better for other threads.  I might be wrong but a few include...Hampton and Kormos retiring so soon pre-election looked opportunistic and the short turn-around disadvantaged their replacements, significantly in Welland...the Liberals, while unpopular, aren't as completely-unpopular-everywhere as their opponents believe...nobody cares about LHINs, anti-HSTers likely never voted Liberal anyway, Green Energy backlash is localized, risk management could negate the jail closings, full day Kindergarten is massive all over, plus some strong incumbents = no blow out.

 

But back to the NDP, to my reading, there are 8 ridings that are a 100 percent NDP lock (incumbents minus Hampton and Kormos), 11 where the NDP has a strong chance of winning (Ott-C,Wind-W,L-F,Ham-Mtn,Davenport,YSW,Algoma-Man,TBay-A,Temiskaming-C + Kormos and Hampton), and 11 where they're in the game (Scar-SW,Scar-RR,Wind-T,York-W,Sault, Sudb,Tbay-SN,Toronto-Centre,Brampton-GM,Huron-Bruce,Essex).

That doesn't afford a huge margin of error.  In order to win them all, a heck of a lot has to go right - provincially, locally, individually.

Look at the recent federal election.  The best result the NDP ever had, with their most popular leader since 1988, a polarising Conservative PM and the complete collapse of the Liberal party.  And how many seats did they win in Ontario?  22/106.

 

But to answer your main question, the answer is yes.  How long will it take?  Who knows.  But looking at the quality of some of the candidates willing to put themselves forward in relatively marginal ridings, I think this is the start of the end for the "anti-NDP grudge".

Ken Burch

(post deleted by self to reflect clarification of the post I was responding to.)

Ciabatta2

 

I think if there is a minority it'll be the NDP propping up the Conservatives informally for the first year, with another election sometime after that.

theleftyinvestor

Ciabatta2 wrote:

 

I think if there is a minority it'll be the NDP propping up the Conservatives informally for the first year, with another election sometime after that.

 

Well, it worked for Bill Davis... eventually. But Hudak is no Davis. And the Liberals of the time were to the right of Davis on many issues so actually the co-operation of the NDP with PCs was not so far out there. This reflected well on Davis and two elections later he got his majority back.

It worked for Darrell Dexter... spectacularly. I think they were in a similar ideological situation, with the NS Liberals sometimes to the right of the NS PCs. Dexter preferred gaining credibility by propping up a PC government over forming an alliance with disgraced Liberals.

But Hudak work with the ONDP? I don't know about that. I think McGuinty and Horwath are the most ideologically compatible pair out of the three parties. If Horwath has the option of blocking a PC government, she better have REALLY good reasons for turning it down. Otherwise she could face a revolt.

If McGuinty holds on but is reduced to a minority, on the other hand, I could see him basically running on a case-by-case basis, seeking out PC votes for his right-ish bills and NDP votes for his left-ish bills.

Ciabatta2

There is more common ground than first meets the eye. I might be wrong but I think their positions on the HST, the Samsung deal and LHINs could lead to compromise and they could probably work out another compromise on amending the Green Energy Act and something on the Far North Act.  That could last them a year or two.  It also gives Hudak an excuse not to cut taxes - he'll need the revenue to work on the deficit before claiming that there is only so much compromise you can do with socialists and move to call another election a year or two later to get his tax cut mandate.

Also, I think there is more personal trust between the NDP and PC caucuses than between the NDP and Libs.  The PCs are easier to work with.  Hudak's messaging is the opposite of his actual personality.  There are fewer 'tea party Tories' in the provincial caucuses than in the federal one.  Any arrangement, if there is one, would be temporary though - I agree that there is only so much room to work.

Ken Burch

In a way, doesn't the Ontario tradition of (mostly)electing a provincial government from one of the parties NOT in power in Ottawa work against the Tories here?  That's the only explanation I can think of for why Hudak's support seems to have declined at this stage.

theleftyinvestor

Methinks the federal Conservative majority has suddenly reminded Ontarian swing voters - who swung Liberal->Con to avoid an NDP government based on appealing to a fear of the 1990s - that they also don't want a repeat of the Mike Harris days.

Stockholm

One thing that is very interesting is that the Liberals seem to have moved back into contention by winning back Tory voters - NDP support is as strong as ever. This is a pattern i like.

Lord Palmerston

Ciabatta2 wrote:
There are fewer 'tea party Tories' in the provincial caucuses than in the federal one.

I would disagree with that.  Just because they're called *Progressive* Conservatives provincially doesn't mean they're more moderate or less "Tea Party"-esque.  Harper's winning over of so-called "blue Liberals and immigrant communities in the 905 belt seems to have involved toning down the anti-immigrant rhetoric, meanwhile the Hudak PC's are running ads attacking "foreigners". 

adma

Ciabatta2 wrote:
Also, I think there is more personal trust between the NDP and PC caucuses than between the NDP and Libs.  The PCs are easier to work with.  Hudak's messaging is the opposite of his actual personality.  

In the direct case of Hudak, I wonder if that congeniality bore fruit through being constituency-neighbours with Peter Kormos--who actually inherited some of Hudak's old constituency last redistribution...

theleftyinvestor

Stockholm wrote:

One thing that is very interesting is that the Liberals seem to have moved back into contention by winning back Tory voters - NDP support is as strong as ever. This is a pattern i like.

That certainly stands in stark contrast to the fed Lib strategy in May. Remember the NDP news release entitled "Help Ignatieff Find Conservatives"?

Michael Ignatieff wants people to believe he’s ready to fight Stephen Harper but so far in this campaign he’s turned his efforts elsewhere.

Instead of trying to defeat Conservatives, the Ignatieff campaign heads to Trinity-Spadina today. This comes after he kicked off his campaign in NDP-held Ottawa Centre and spent his second day in NDP-held Outremont, spending the entire day in Montreal – hundreds of kilometers from any Conservative ridings.

Unfortunately for Ignatieff, voters don’t seem to agree.

They, like most Canadians, are looking for strong leadership that will stand up to Stephen Harper.

If Michael Ignatieff has problems finding Conservative ridings he should download the NDP app and see where Jack Layton has been so far on this campaign.

Of course, the Liberal focus on wooing Conservative swing voters back could also have to do with the efficiency of the NDP vote. A small shift in PC voters towards the Liberals could let them hold onto a dozen or more volatile seats. But a migration of several percentage points from the NDP to Liberals or vice versa would only really play out in 3, 4, 5 seats maximum.

Trevormkidd

Ciabatta2 wrote:
The NDP could sweep the north under the right conditions (+ 4 NDP gain, -1 and -3 PC and Lib, respectively)

Perhaps I am reading this wrong...but the NDP sweeping the north would be +8.  At first I wondered if you only meant the four most northern seats that the NDP does not already hold...but one of them comes from a PC loss, so that would have to be Parry Sound - Muskoka. 

I view a likely scenario is for the NDP to pick up 2 - 4 seats in the north.  Kenora seems to be a total wild card, but I don't know any of the candidates who are running.  Of course, I recognize that you said "under the right conditions."  I think under the right conditions the NDP could be +6 taking 9 of 11.  I don't see any conditions where the NDP could take PS-M or Nip, unless they sweep the rest of the province first. 

Ciabatta2

Trevormkidd wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:
The NDP could sweep the north under the right conditions (+ 4 NDP gain, -1 and -3 PC and Lib, respectively)

Perhaps I am reading this wrong...but the NDP sweeping the north would be +8.  At first I wondered if you only meant the four most northern seats that the NDP does not already hold...but one of them comes from a PC loss, so that would have to be Parry Sound - Muskoka. 

My apologies, I was unclear.  When I meant sweeping the north, I meant the real north (not Nip or Parry Sound) and the "plus four" was plus four from my prediction (which already counted for 5 northern wins).  Right now they hold TJB,Kenora-RR,Nickel Belt.  I think they'll lose Kenora-RR to the PCs, and win TBay-Atikokan,Temiskaming-Cochrane,Algoma-Manitoulin.  That's 5/13 predicted.

If they sweep the real north (possible but very unlikely) then they also win TBay-SuperiorN,Sault, Sudbury from the Libs (-3 from prediction), and Kenora-RR (which I had assigned to the PCs, -1 from prediction)

I think that math works.  :)

Lord Palmerston wrote:

I would disagree with that.  Just because they're called *Progressive* Conservatives provincially doesn't mean they're more moderate or less "Tea Party"-esque.  Harper's winning over of so-called "blue Liberals and immigrant communities in the 905 belt seems to have involved toning down the anti-immigrant rhetoric, meanwhile the Hudak PC's are running ads attacking "foreigners".

Yes and no.  No one has asserted that the party's name has any effect on their "tea party-ness."  I don't disagree on anti-immigrant messaging but if you look at the actual people involved there is still a significant "old Conservative" rump and a number of relatively moderate candidates and existing MPPs.  Sure, there are the Harris-style neo-cons and the Harperites, and of course, Rick Millier and Jack MacLaren, but there are also the Munros and Millers and Dunlops too.

If Hudak wins it is going to be in the same places that Harper did.  The difference is that one of the few things Ontario has going for it is that unlike in federal elections, there is no BC interior + Alberta + Saskatchewan + rural Manitoba throws off the general balance, both in the Leg and in the PCs.

nicky

Now that the Liberals seem to be back in thelead the NDP will win fewer seats even with the same level of support around 24% than they would have won if the Conservatives were in the lead and the Liberal vote low.

That is because there are very few NDP/ Con marginals - Essex, Oshawa, maybe Kenora and that is about it. The main growth area for the party is in Liberal seats. For example, of the 22 Ontario federal seats the NDP won, I believe that every one of them was won from the Liberals over the last three elections. The provincial electoral landscape is similar.

Stockholm

No kidding the NDP federal seats in Ontario came from the Liberals. As recently as the 2000 election the Liberals 103 seats in Ontario out of 106!

lil.Tommy

nicky wrote:

Now that the Liberals seem to be back in thelead the NDP will win fewer seats even with the same level of support around 24% than they would have won if the Conservatives were in the lead and the Liberal vote low.

That is because there are very few NDP/ Con marginals - Essex, Oshawa, maybe Kenora and that is about it. The main growth area for the party is in Liberal seats. For example, of the 22 Ontario federal seats the NDP won, I believe that every one of them was won from the Liberals over the last three elections. The provincial electoral landscape is similar.

So its going to be up to the militants and volunteers, candidates in a) NDP/Tory battle ridings to pitch the NDP as the alternative to the tories, pushing a similar message that came across in May which worked rather well (so Essex, Oshawa) b) NDP/Liberal battles, to fight the strategic voting anti-hudak/harris message, voting NDP is not wasted and your vote will matter in electing a NewDem (ala May), the NDP is the party that will be pushing for a progressive government as 8years of liberal government has proven to be a failure (so YSW, Davenport, OC, WW, The Northern ridings). The battle is going to be very local especially in three way fights... BGM, SSW, SRR.

Life, the unive...

without good regional numbers trying to guess what the outcome of the election will be is worse than foolish.  Regional numbers in Ontario played a huge role in the various outcomes around the province in the federal election.   I also don't believe when they enter the ballot box Ontarians will give McGuinty a third mandate of any strength.  Liberal numbers are soft, very soft.

lil.Tommy

Here are the last regional numbers i saw, for the Ipsos Reid Poll, Sept 7-11

http://www.globaltoronto.com/pages/story.aspx?id=6442480379

 

North: Lib 44%, NDP 30%, PC 23%

SW: Lib 34% PC 40%, NDP 26% (not listed so thats the difference left)

Central: Lib 35%, PC40%, NDP 25% (again, not listed so the difference left)

GTA: Lib 40%, PC 33%, NDP 25%

 

Not pleased the they excluded completely the NDP from the SW and Central, and is "central" including the east?

 

nicky

Good point about the 2000 election Stockholm. But my wider point was that almost all potential NDP gains are in areas of traditional Liberal strength. If you look at for example the Ontario results in the second Mulroney election and compare them with May 2011 I think you will see that almost all (and perhaps all) of the 22 NDP seats did not return Conservatives in 1988.

Krago

Here is the link to the Ipsos-Reid detailed tables.

The regional breakdown is:

GTA: Lib 40%, PC 33%, NDP 25%, Green 1%

- 416: Lib 40%, NDP 31%, PC 28%

- 905: Lib 41%, PC 38%, NDP 20%

Central (K-W/Hamilton/Niagara?): PC 40%, Lib 35%, NDP 24%, Green 1%

Eastern: PC 46%, Lib 36%, NDP 17%, Green 1%

Southwestern: PC 40%, Lib 34%, NDP 25%

Northern: Lib 44%, NDP 30%, PC 23%, Green 2%

 

Stockholm

FYI: Ipsos has no business publishing numbers for northern Ontario - their sample size there is 44!! (margin of error is astronomical!)

Note that Ipsos also splits the GTA into 905 and 416 - which is way more useful:

In the 905 belt the numbers are Liberals 41%, PCs 38% and NDP 20%

In the City of Toronto (416) the numbers are Liberals 40%, NDP 31% and PCs 28%

These numbers suggest that the NDP would almost certainly pick-up Davenport and YSW and potentially one or two Scarborough seats.

edmundoconnor

That Northern number should be glowing, it's so radioactive.

nicky

It wd be nice if the various pollsters could agree on the exact boundaries of the "regions" of Ontario. In the absence of some standardization it is difficult to make comparisons.
Does anyone know how each of them define their repective "regions" and what ridings they emcompass?

Lord Palmerston

Stockholm wrote:

FYI: Ipsos has no business publishing numbers for northern Ontario - their sample size there is 44!! (margin of error is astronomical!)

What was Angus Reid's sample size for northern Ontario?

adma

Though in case the figure *does* reflect a truth, I wonder if it relates to the NDP no longer having a Northern leader.  (Still, something doesn't ring right there.)

Krago

The Liberal gains in the Nanos poll came almost entirely at the expense of 'Others' (which went from 5.8% on Sept. 1 to just 0.2% on Sept. 11). Nanos does not prompt for party names, but instead asks: "For those parties you would consider voting for PROVINCIALLY, could you please rank your top two current local preferences?".

So, what 'other' parties did 5.8% of Ontarians mention by name just 10 days ago, and where did they disappear?  Doing the math, 53 people gave the name of a minor party in the Sept. 1 survey, but just 1 person did a few days ago.