Ontario By-elections

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Stockholm

The NDP has always been willing to cooperate with the Liberals. The Liberals would rather eat broken glass than make any kind of deal with the NDP - and forget about PR - the Liberals will never go for it because it would impede their chances of regaining a majority gvernment and being Ontario's natural party of government again.

Most likely scenario after next Ontario election is that the PCs come in first, fall short of a majority...and the Liberals will prop up a Hudak minority government rather than cooperate with the NDP.

Stockholm

autoworker wrote:
Here, in Windsor-Tecumseh, the ONDP will receive most of the protest vote, but I think it's mostly because the Liberals spurned Pupatello's leadership bid. After the by-elections, I believe it's time for Wynne and Horwath to have a serious discussion about PR, and consider forming a coalition in the interim.

In other words it would be GOOD if the Ontario Liberals lost every single one of the five byelections so that they are so chastened and so weakened and so terrified of an election that they just might be willing to cooperate with the NDP for a change - rather than trying to government as if they had a majority and playing Russian roulette over every vote.

autoworker autoworker's picture

Stockholm wrote:

The NDP has always been willing to cooperate with the Liberals. The Liberals would rather eat broken glass than make any kind of deal with the NDP - and forget about PR - the Liberals will never go for it because it would impede their chances of regaining a majority gvernment and being Ontario's natural party of government again.

Most likely scenario after next Ontario election is that the PCs come in first, fall short of a majority...and the Liberals will prop up a Hudak minority government rather than cooperate with the NDP.

Actually, the Tories are Ontario's Natural Governing Party, but don't tell the Liberals.

edmundoconnor

autoworker wrote:

Indeed, 24-25% would ensure a Tory victory, and provide Hudak with both a beachhead and Official Opposition momentum going forward. Combine this with a possible win in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, and he has both flanks covered.

Only if you buy the narrative that increased NDP vote = increased PC vote. As Scarborough Southwest (a riding not too dissimilar to S-G) showed in 2011, that is by no means the case.

Aristotleded24

On to Scarborough-Guildwood, I wish to thank Edmund for his contribution, obviously being closer to that than anyone else. I think we can agree that the optics are not good, whether it was the result of "party growing pains," or Giambrone trying to stack the nomination. I think we can all agree in our hope that the NDP learns from what happened and can put forth more clear policies and ideas to make sure things go smoothly in the future.

adma

edmundoconnor wrote:
Agreed. For another example, I think anyone would have said the prognosis was equally grim in Scarborough Southwest after 2007's results (a shade over 18%). While Dan Harris got elected there federally, it was by no means certain the votes would have carried over to the provincial party. However, thanks to an energetic campaign there in 2011 (of which I played a very small part), the NDP got over 31% of the vote. The level of support got the Liberal incumbent worried enough to issue some hastily put-together pieces of lit slamming the NDP and Bruce Budd, the candidate. Things might have got more interesting still if the PC candidate had won over people who were not committed supporters, and torn away at Berardinetti's right flank.

I don't think *anyone* would have, esp. if one understands that the fed NDP and ONDP aren't commonly understood to be *that* discrete.  Sure, 2007's SSW result was mediocre; but that's more because they nominated poorly and the "Green schism" that year also took a bite--yet in the previous two fed elections, Dan Harris reached into the early 20s and nearly tied the Cons for second.  To say that those federal benchmarks (let alone Harris's 2011 victory) couldn't translate (and beyond?) in some way or another provincially is absurd, particularly in a seat w/a rich ONDP history; sure the demos have changed, but that didn't stop Dan Harris  (and even throughout the Hampton basement years, the NDP never dipped below 15% in SSW).

Robo

edmundoconnor wrote:

I myself am still technically a member of Etobicoke Centre riding association, even though I haven't lived there for years. If I were to turn up at a local nomination meeting (in Markham), would I be eligible to vote? I am a member in good standing, and the party is thoroughly aware of where I live. If I did not advise the party of the new riding association of which I wanted to be a member of in good time, I would not be on the local riding association's list, even though I have a current membership card, and ID to prove I live in the riding.

My understanding, and I do not work at Provincial Office to maintain records, is that everyone is presumptively a member of the riding association where they reside. Let me give an example (in an area of no relevance to any current by-election.). I know a person who is active in progressive politics in St. Catharines who lives in the Town of Lincoln, which is in Niagara West-Glanbrook (NWG). She does not want to belong to the NWG riding association, so writes after every riding redistribution (when everyone is placed in the riding association where their mailing address puts them in an address search, as a "restarting" point) to state that she wants to belong to the St. Catharines NDP.

 

My understanding is that you have to ask to belong to belong to a riding association is which you do not live; I understand one don't get a fuss when one asks, but one does have to ask. The NWG is obliged to notify every member of their riding association of the location and time of their nomination -- so they do not have to send her a notice. But, if she hears where the meeting is (if she chose not to belong to the NWG riding association, the onus is on her to seek out the info about a nomination meeting) and shows up with ID and (hopefully) her membership card or "membership number" (which used to be on mailing labels but I have not seen on my mailings for ages), she has the right to vote at the NWG nomination meeting. Period. No one following the rules has any right to deny her the right to vote at that nomination meeting.

 

  Now sometimes rules are not followed and people running a meeting do not follow the constitution. Those cases can be challenged. Nothing I have read here leaves me with the impression that the rules were not followed. If the process somehow leaves a bad impression, people should respond by explaining what the rules are and how they wee followed, and how the complaint seems to suggest that the rules in the ONDP constitution should not have been followed to please the desire of some local riding association executive member. That would be wrong.

janfromthebruce

LONDON WEST BYELECTION

A poll incorrectly identified Peggy Sattler’s party affiliation

Peggy Sattler’s campaign team is demanding a government regulator step in after voters complained an automated phone poll listed the London West hopeful as a candidate for the wrong party.

The poll incorrectly listed Sattler as the Green Party nominee instead of representing the New Democrats, campaign spokesperson Alex Callahan said.

snip

A representative for the CRTC said the agency doesn’t comment on any possible ongoing investigations and results are made public after the case is closed.

The president of the company that conducted the polls hadn’t seen the script yet but he said if there was a mistake it wasn’t intentional.

“If there was an error . . . it would definitely be an honest one,” said Josh Justice of PCG National Research.

“I can understand completely (Sattler’s feelings),”

He confirmed the group was conducting polling in the riding last week.

Justice said a mistake would force it to reissue the polls.

“It would mean the data would be wrong.”

The data wasn’t necessarily for public viewing but for private use, he said.

Justice said between 3,000 and 5,000 households are typically called.

Just to be clear, this is the liberal pollster who was hired to conduct a poll in this riding. I doubt that it was a "mistake" but intentional to confuse the voting. Once again, Liberals just don't know how to stay classy.

edmundoconnor

Sure it was "an honest mistake" by a company whose subsidiary is being used by the London West Liberal campaign for data. Sure.

edmundoconnor

DP

janfromthebruce

with you EC.

David Young

Would the Liberals have to lose all five by-elections for there to be any real change in their direction?

Result #1:  Liberals hold all 5 seats; they continue to govern as if they had a majority, since the opposition parties would be ultra-wary of defeating the government any time soon.

Result #2:  Liberals hold 4 seats, losing 1 to the NDP (Windsor-Tecumseh); the status-quo reigns.

Result #3:  Liberals hold 3 seats, losing 2 to the NDP (W.-T. & London West); the Liberals wait for the Conservatives to dump Hudak during their up-coming convention, then call an election to take advantage of the lack of a Conservative leader.

Result #4:  Liberals hold 2 seats, losing 2 to the NDP, and 1 (Etobicoke-Lakeshore) to the Conservatives; the status-quo reigns.

Result #5:  Liberals hold 1 seat, losing 2 to the NDP, and 2 (E.-L. & Ottawa South) to the Conservatives; the Liberals make any deal they can for NDP support to prevent an election any time soon.

I realize that London West could go Conservative also, but otherwise, what other scenarios are there?

 

nicky

I recently spoke to someone who purports to know what is going on in the bylections. His/her prognosis;

Windsor. easy NDP win

London. Con win with NDP second, 7-10 points back

Lakeshore. Narrow Liberal win. Cons second. NDP about 15%.

Scarborough. Same as Lakeshore with NDP about 20%

Ottawa: Liberal win with NDP a distant second.

Stockholm

nicky wrote:

I recently spoke to someone who purports to know what is going on in the bylections. His/her prognosis;

Ottawa: Liberal win with NDP a distant second.

According to the Forum poll today the PCs lead in Ottawa South 48% to 34% with the NDP at 12% - so I take those prognosticatrions with a boulder of salt!

toaster

I think Windsor is pretty safe NDP right now, and Scarborough is safe Liberal.  The other 3 are up for grabs.  EL and OS are Lib-Con fights, and London is a three way battle.  The only party that might be completely shut out is the PCs.

Stockholm

I'm not sure what makes you think Scarborough is "safe" for the Liberals. the latest poll has them only leading the PCs by 5 points. In Ottawa South on the other hand, it looks like the OLP will be blown out of the water!

janfromthebruce

toaster wrote:

I think Windsor is pretty safe NDP right now, and Scarborough is safe Liberal.  The other 3 are up for grabs.  EL and OS are Lib-Con fights, and London is a three way battle.  The only party that might be completely shut out is the PCs.

London West

Vacated by: Chris Bentley

The candidates: Shaping up to be another tight race. The Conservative candidate is lawyer Ali Chahbar while Peggy Sattler, a Thames Valley District School Board trustee, is running of the NDP. Ken Coran, former president of the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation, was recruited as a star candidate for the Liberals. Gary Brown is running for the Greens.

The issues: A battered economy, unemployment and a lack of new opportunities are big issues for the city.

The polls: Chahbar is ahead with 36 per cent, Sattler has 31 per cent while Coran is trailing with 17 per cent. Brown, meanwhile, has 6 per cent and other parties have 10 per cent.

Ontario byelections: The issues, the players and the polls

Heard that Sattler is receiving lots of 115 dollar cheques in support -Kiss

So Sattler has a good chance of besting Chahbar, especially if the lib vote con'ts to go down, and if some of that Green vote goes down, they can get real progressive elected. Lots of OSSTF members from across the province coming to London West to openly campaign for Sattler and against Coran, ex OSSTF pres.

nicky

The 5 by-elections are shaping up as a disaster for the provincial Liberals:

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/07/26/liberals_at_risk_of_placing_third_in_windsor_and_london_byelections_poll_finds.html

 

Forum Research, which has a reasonably good record calling other recent by-elections, now has the Liberals ahead, and only barely, in one riding, Scarborough Guildwood. 

The NDP leads by a mile in Windsor. 

The Cons have modest leads in the other three with the NDP a close second in London West.

Compare this to five solid Liberal wins in the general election !!!

 

 

edmundoconnor

If there are three or more losses on August 1 for the Liberals, I wonder if Wynne will continue to play the nicey-nice game with the NDP, or if her thoughts will begin to turn toward just pulling the plug and calling a snap election. If Liberals are beating beaten soundly in both the former finance minister former premier's seats, and only barely hanging on in Scarborough-Guildwood, there are precious few safe Liberal seats left.

David Young

edmundoconnor wrote:
If there are three or more losses on August 1 for the Liberals, I wonder if Wynne will continue to play the nicey-nice game with the NDP, or if her thoughts will begin to turn toward just pulling the plug and calling a snap election. If Liberals are beating beaten soundly in both the former finance minister former premier's seats, and only barely hanging on in Scarborough-Guildwood, there are precious few safe Liberal seats left.

I would hardly put Wynne in the category of self-destructive.

Should the Liberals lose four of the seats, as I mentioned in an earlier post as Scenario #4, I would think that she would avoid an election at all costs, and would be prepared to give in to almost any NDP demands.

 

Krago

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

Surprised there hasn't been any mention of this yet.

Hopefully we won't have to worry about him getting on board with the next Lib/Con privatization bill when the pink palace resumes.

 

Now he faces one of his biggest challenges, a fierce fight for the NDP nomination amid strong opposition from unionists, especially from CUPE, still seething over the 101-day city hall strike in 2009.

“The CUPE strike and the contracting out, that’s an issue,” conceded Hatfield. “There are some hard feelings out there against everyone on council.”

Hatfield, who can detail a long history of union involvement, from shop steward to regional VP of an international union, said he proposed limiting garbage collection privatization to half the workforce.

[url=http://blogs.windsorstar.com/2013/03/22/henderson-percys-big-battle/]lin...

Skinny Dipper

David Young wrote:

edmundoconnor wrote:
If there are three or more losses on August 1 for the Liberals, I wonder if Wynne will continue to play the nicey-nice game with the NDP, or if her thoughts will begin to turn toward just pulling the plug and calling a snap election. If Liberals are beating beaten soundly in both the former finance minister former premier's seats, and only barely hanging on in Scarborough-Guildwood, there are precious few safe Liberal seats left.

I would hardly put Wynne in the category of self-destructive.

Should the Liberals lose four of the seats, as I mentioned in an earlier post as Scenario #4, I would think that she would avoid an election at all costs, and would be prepared to give in to almost any NDP demands.

I think with the potentially disasterous results for the Ontario Liberals, I do think that Kathleen Wynne will pull the plug on the legislature sometime next year.  She and the Liberals will probably present a future Speech from the Throne that promises goodies for Ontarians.  Soon after, she will ask the Lt. Governor to dissolve the legislature.  She won't wait until the fourth year or until Andrea Horwath gets tired of supporting the government.

Skinny Dipper

Andrea Horwath's NDP may win one or two ridings in the by-elections.  I do think that if the party had a strong campaign platform with a consistent overall message on the main priorities for a future NDP government, the NDP should be winning two to four ridings.  The only message I get is that the party supports a 15 percent reduction in auto insurance.  What does the party want to do for the economy, education, health, and other issues?  How would the party manage elementary and secondary education?  What are the priorities for health care?  How will the party create growth for the economy and for people working at jobs in the economy?

Skinny Dipper

Duplicate.

David Young

So...predictions?

I say NDP wins 2, Windsor-Tecumseh and London West, and the Conservatives win 2, Ottawa South and Etobicoke-Lakeshore, while the Liberals hold on (barely) to Scarborough-Gillwood.

 

Aristotleded24

My guess:

PC: London West, Ottawa South

NDP: Windsor-Tecumseh

Liberal: Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Scarborough-Guildwood

Stockholm

My guess:

PC: Ottawa South. Etobicoke-Lakeshore

NDP: Windsor-Tecumseh, London West (very narrowly)

Liberal: Scarborough-Guildwood

I predict that contray to conventional wisdom, the Liberals lose Etobicoke-Lakeshore despite a low NDP vote as the anti-government protest vote consolidates behind Holyday. in contrast ther Liberals will hang on to Scarborough-Guildwood thanks to a straong showing by Giambrone who will get over 20% and take a chunk of anti-government protest votes that would otherwise go PC.

Helsinki

I can't help but feel the ONDP has squandered the opportunity to win Scarborough-Guildwood by running Adam Giambrone.  Nothing against Adam - but this is the wrong riding for him to run in.  The ONDP President Neethan Shan should have ran here again.  Instead, we have the PC candidate Ken Kirupa running in a close second to the Liberal candidate (one poll even has him ahead).  If Ken wins, it will allow the PC party inroads into the Tamil-Canadian community, which has strongly backed the NDP in recent years and whose support we need to keep.  

Helsinki

Prediction:

NDP: Windsor-Tecumseh, London West

PC: Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Scarborough Guildwood

Liberal: Ottawa South

Skinny Dipper

Prediction (but not my desires):

NDP: Windsor-Tecumseh

PC: London-West, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Scarborough-Guildwood, Ottawa-South

edmundoconnor

Prediction:

NDP: Windsor—Tecumseh, London West (if the anti-Liberals choose the NDP over the Tory)

PC: Ottawa South, Etobicoke—Lakeshore

Liberal: Scarborough—Guildwood (with not much room to spare between Hunter and Kirupa)

Edit: Not my desire, either.

Skinny Dipper

Was it a mistake for Adam Giambrone to run in Scarborough-Guildwood?  I don't think that this riding is the right fit for him.  He's a mid-city/downtowner who is currently trying to win a suburban seat.  He'll probably lose the by-election.  The problem will be that he will be seen as an opportunist if he tries to run for another seat somewhere else in the next provincial election.  Name recognition does matter in by-elections.  Voters will give more consideration to the local candidates during by-elections than during general elections where the party leaders mostly matter.  If there had not been disagreements about the nomination process, I think Mr. Giambrone would be performing a little better.  I do think that he does have a higher profile than the other nominee (what's her name?).  He has made Scarborough-Guildwood into a two-and-a-half horse race instead of a two-horse race between the Liberals and Conservatives.

In London-West, it was a mistake for Kathleen Wynne to get former OSSTF president, Ken Coran, to run for the Liberals.  This galvanized many teachers to throw their active campaign support for the NDP candidate, Peggy Sattler.  Ken Coran is seen as a traitor by many teachers.  If Kathleen Wynne had expected the teachers to make-up with her Liberals, she will be proven wrong this Thursday.  Now, teachers are a small fraction of the vote.  However, they can organize with or without union support when desired or needed.  Do expect the teachers (especially many public elementary teachers) to continue their boycott of extra-curricular activities, field-trips, and staff meetings in the 2013-2014 school year.  The teachers have not forgiven the Liberals.  As for Ken, I think the voters of London-West can see his betrayal of the teachers and what he could possible do against the voters of London-West if he were to be elected this Thursday.

edmundoconnor

Helsinki wrote:

I can't help but feel the ONDP has squandered the opportunity to win Scarborough-Guildwood by running Adam Giambrone.  Nothing against Adam - but this is the wrong riding for him to run in.  The ONDP President Neethan Shan should have ran here again.

It was going to be a tough race in any case, as the Liberals (despite everything) still have a few people willing to vote for them in Scarborough. The mis-steps during the NDP campaign haven't helped that. While Shan being local would have assuaged some concerns, the fact that he is the current ONDP President would still have had whispers of party brass descending from upon high to squash any independent thoughts in a riding association.

Stockholm

Besides Neethan Shan is already set to run in Scarborough-Rouge River next time whch is a much more NDP friendly seat than Guildwood. He came a close second there in 2011 and got 36% of the vote while in SG the NDP was a distant third with 19% of the vote. Also Rouge River has a federal NDP MP. It makes sense for Shan to concentrate his efforts there.

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

Helsinki wrote:

I can't help but feel the ONDP has squandered the opportunity to win Scarborough-Guildwood by running Adam Giambrone.  Nothing against Adam - but this is the wrong riding for him to run in.  The ONDP President Neethan Shan should have ran here again.  Instead, we have the PC candidate Ken Kirupa running in a close second to the Liberal candidate (one poll even has him ahead).  If Ken wins, it will allow the PC party inroads into the Tamil-Canadian community, which has strongly backed the NDP in recent years and whose support we need to keep.  

Excellent point.

Neethan seems like a genuine guy (his background on social justice activism is pretty solid) and would've been a far superior candidate than Giambrone, but his home turf is Scarborough-Rouge River. His riding association really has their shit together - an army of really enthusiastic young volunteers and his countless friends and allies in the local community. Plus it's held federally by Rathika.

Amarjeet should have been the candidate. She has deep roots in the community, strong connections to organized labour, and would've been much more credible than the last second anti-democratic brass shenanigans to parachute in downtown G-man.

Stockholm

OnTheLeft wrote:

Amarjeet should have been the candidate. She has deep roots in the community, strong connections to organized labour, and would've been much more credible than the last second anti-democratic brass shenanigans to parachute in downtown G-man.

I guess those "deep roots" explain why when she ran for city council in Scarborough she came in dead last out of 9 candidates and got just over 1% of the vote?

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

She has lived in that riding for most of her life and knows the community, unlike Giambrone.

 

 

nicky

Campaign Research has released last minute polls for each of the by-election ridings.

http://campaignresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Press-release-July-31-Campaign-Research-Ontario-By-Elections.pdf

The only sure bet looks to be Hatfield in Windsor. The other four are quite close with the Cons and Liberals each ahead in two.

The NDP is behind the Cons by only 3 points in London (which may well be decided on whether the NDP can squeeze more votes from the Liberals than the Cons from Teabagger Al Gretzki who is scoring 9%) 

The poll is similar to the  Forum poll for Scarborough and confirms that Giambrone is running a strong third.

Does anyone know if Forum is releasing any further polls?

ctrl190

My predictions

Liberal: Scarborough-Guildwood, Ottawa South (by a nose)

Conservative: Etobicoke-Lakeshore, London West

NDP: Windsor Tecumseh

 

Helsinki

Stockholm wrote:

I guess those "deep roots" explain why when she ran for city council in Scarborough she came in dead last out of 9 candidates and got just over 1% of the vote?

You cannot judge a potential candidate by one failed run. 

Helsinki

Stockholm wrote:

Besides Neethan Shan is already set to run in Scarborough-Rouge River next time whch is a much more NDP friendly seat than Guildwood. He came a close second there in 2011 and got 36% of the vote while in SG the NDP was a distant third with 19% of the vote. Also Rouge River has a federal NDP MP. It makes sense for Shan to concentrate his efforts there.

Federally, NDP staffer Danielle Ouellette got 26.5% federally in Scarborough-Guildwood in 2011 without any sort of campaign there. Neethan had a strong run there provincially in 2007.  

Provincially, the Liberal MPP in Scarborough-Rogue River is popular former Toronto City Councillor Bas Balkission. 

Running in a by-election with no incumbent is easier than beating a popular incumbent.  But then again, I digress, as my main concern was what the potential election of PC candidate Ken Kirupa in Scarborough-Guildwood would have on the NDP efforts to coalesce and consolidate the support of the Tamil-Canadian community.

 

Lens Solution

Here's the Election Night link.

 

Menu has the 5 ridings:

 

http://electionnightresults.elections.on.ca/rr/welcome.jsp

Helsinki

Helsinki wrote:

Running in a by-election with no incumbent is easier than beating a popular incumbent.  But then again, I digress, as my main concern was what the potential election of PC candidate Ken Kirupa in Scarborough-Guildwood would have on the NDP efforts to coalesce and consolidate the support of the Tamil-Canadian community.

Looks like I was wrong.  Adam Giambrone is doing quite impressive in the early results and in the Forum poll released yesterday.  

Ippurigakko

3 lead NDP in first place (Windsor, London and surprisng SG Giambrone is first place)

CanadaOrangeCat

Stunning victory for the NDP in Windsor by the looks of things. Congrats!

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

Canadian Press projects Peggy Satler as the winner in London West.

Wilf Day

Wow!!!

Ken Coran crashes and burns: 14.6%; Peggy Sattler: 46.9%

Giambrone and PCs pretty much tied.

Liberals call five by-elections in five Liberal seats, lose three, come third in Windsor and London. But PCs pick up only one, and run third in two.

And the winner is . . . Andrea Horwath.  Smile

 

edmundoconnor

Nice to see Coran's campaign sinking with all hands. Hatfield's steamrolling the competition in Windsor.

radiorahim radiorahim's picture

Just so that there are some results posted here in the thread:

 

Etobicoke-Lakeshore  103 of 245 polls reporting

PC 46.4%, Liberal 41.7%, NDP 8.3%, Green 2.3%

London West 175 of 260

NDP 45.4%, PC 30.1%, Liberal 15.0%, Green 4.5%

Ottawa South 96 of 234

Liberal 42.8%, PC 36.8%, NDP 14.9%, Green 3.7%

Scarborough-Guildwood 102 of 166

Liberal 35.5%, PC 30.1%, NDP 29.4%, Green 2.1%

Windsor-Tecumseh 166 of 255

NDP 62.8%, PC 19.0%, Liberal 11.4%, Green 3.7%, Libertarian 1.7%

 

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