Ontario PC Elizabeth Witmer Resigns, Takes position with WSIB

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Ontario PC Elizabeth Witmer Resigns, Takes position with WSIB

Will Hudaks PCs be able to hold onto this seat?
Kitchener Waterloo IIRC

NorthReport

Realistically if the NDP does not have a chance we had better hope the Cons win. But perhaps the NDP with a great candidate could win - yes?

 

Ontario Liberals could return to majority government after Tory resignation

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/27/ontario-liberals-could-return-to-majority-government-in-after-tory-resignation/

Her resignation puts the Liberals in a tie with the combined numbers of the two opposition parties at Queen's Park. The Liberals have 53 seats, the PCs have 36 and the NDP, 17. The speaker, Liberal Dave Levac, only votes in the case of a tie, so Mr. McGuinty will remain in an effective minority situation for now. Should the Liberals win a by-election, they would have a majority.

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

They already have a Liberal-NDP Majority Government™. They don't need K-W.

Doug

Looks like a big F-You to Tim Hudak.

adma

NorthReport wrote:

Realistically if the NDP does not have a chance we had better hope the Cons win. But perhaps the NDP with a great candidate could win - yes?

I'd say it is winnable (esp. given present favourable provincial polls), or at least targetable--and the NDP had a serious candidate here in 2007, school trustee Catherine Fife, who actually did better than her 2011 counterpart.  If Fife ran again under the present circumstance, she could take it.

Oh, and generally speaking, don't use 2011's fed-prov results as a barometer.  Federally, especially, the NDP-compatible leftward energy was artificially sucked dry by Andrew Telegdi's aggressive Liberal comeback bid...

adma

In any event, I'd *like* to think that the bad old pattern of byelections turning into straight Lib-Con slugfests and the NDP reduced to duking it out w/Green for 5% or less is over....

Very Far Away

In Kitchener-Waterloo byelection, the liberals will do everything to win and I think they will win. 1 seat is the difference between majority and the minority government.

 

Life, the unive...

The Liberal brand is not what it once was.  In the last election people were looking for an alternative, but their was a not knowing you enough gap for the two leaders, especially I expect Horwath.  The more people saw of Hudak the less they likes so Liberal fortunes were bouyed some.  The dynamic isn't the same.  People still generally dislike McGuinty, the have not warmed to Hudak and Horwath has gained in warmth.  

All this is to say, it is absolutely not a given that the Liberals will win this seat.  Residual PC support and increasing NDP support could make this one of the most intersting by-elections in recent memory.

mark_alfred

What were the results of the last election in Kitchener-Waterloo?

janfromthebruce

Mark these were the results in the last 2 provincial elections

Election results

[hide]Ontario general election, 2011

Party Candidate Votes % ±pp

Progressive Conservative
Elizabeth Witmer
21,356
43.41
+2.52

Liberal
Eric Davis
17,837
36.25
+5.06

New Democratic
Isabel Cisterna
8,259
16.79
-0.72

Green
J.D. McGuire
1,307
2.66
-6.60

Independent
Peter Davis
316
0.64

Freedom
Melanie Motz
124
0.25

Total valid votes
49,199
100.00

Note: the 2011 election was held on October 6, 2011. These are unofficial results.

[hide]Ontario general election, 2007

Party Candidate Votes % ±pp

Progressive Conservative
Elizabeth Witmer
20,731
40.89
-2.19

Liberal
Louise Ervin
15,814
31.19
-9.19

New Democratic
Catherine Fife
8,878
17.51
+6.57

Green
Judy Greenwood-Speers
4,697
9.26
+6.07

Family Coalition
Louis Reitzel
587
1.15
-0.56

Total valid votes
50,707
100.00

Now I asked about this too and also found out a wee tidbit. Before the riding was changed, Witmer won in 1990 general election for Waterloo North.

Waterloo North

Total votes: 38 883

Andrew Telegdi
9441 (24.3%)

Elizabeth Witmer
14 552 (37.4%)

Hugh Miller
11 298 (29.1%)

Ted Kryn
(FCP) 2946 (7.6%)
Rita Huschka-Sprague
(Lbt) 646 (1.7%)

Herb Epp

Take note that the NDP came a strong 2nd, and beat the favoured Telegdi. And it was my understanding that the NDP didn't put a bunch of resources in this riding because they didn't think they would be competitive. I was talking to a liberal about this and who was familar with this race back in the day - they said that the NDP would probably have won it if they had put resources in this riding.

Of note also, before this election happen, the seat distribution was thus:

Party Party Leader # of
candidates Seats Popular Vote

1987
Elected
% Change
#
%
% Change

    
New Democratic
Bob Rae
130
19
74
+279%
1,509,506
37.6%
+11.9%

    
Liberal
David Peterson
130
95
36
-62.1%
1,302,134
32.4%
-14.9%

    
Progressive Conservative
Mike Harris
130
16
20
+25%
944,564
23.5%
-1.2%

Going into this election, the NDP only had 19 seats in the house, and ended up winning the election. Considering the recent results, and the positive polling both federally and provincially for the NDP and all the positive media for Andrea H. and the provincial NDP, with a super candidate like Catherine we could win this.

Incidently, Catherine is now the Chair of the W/K public school Board, and the president of the OPSBA, and vice president of the Canadian School Board Association. Both the Libs and NDP will be courting Catherine, make no mistake, But perhaps Catherine has her sights set on a bigger prize such as federal.

Her passions are public education and national childcare. Kiss

janfromthebruce

This is what Stock said in the other thread in Lib-Ndp govt

Byelections usually go against the government. If the Ontario Liberals manage to win a PC seat in a byelection it will be a remarkably good sign for them and clear evidence that they would have won a province wide election.

So we know that usually bi elections go against the govt of the day if people are pissed at them which is happening with the libs in Ontario. Next, and reading more tea leaves, Hudak just messed himself and the Cons up in this recent budget process and isn't looking good.

So the only party leader go gained in the budget process is Andrea's NDP - so one could say that with the right candidate we could win this bi-election.

I would think that a high profile candidate who is progressive and neither liberal or conservative could win this. Remember Witmer came from the red tory side of the conservatives.

NorthReport

Wern't there some serious issues with Telegdi? Or am I thinking of someone else that Warren Kinsella was quite critical of.

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

Why are people so certain that Hudak came out of the budget process with less support? He opposed the budget because it wasn't draconian enough for him. A lot of the party's supporters agree with him, and apparently so do Moody's and Standard & Poor.

Nobody has really taken issue with the Conservative agenda. All parties are onside with austerity; the only issue is how much & how fast. There's no real political and economic alternative being offered by anybody to the neoliberal austerity agenda. And Tim Hudak is Mr. Neoliberal Austerity personified.

janfromthebruce

Well, I don't know about his party supporters but generally he's not popular.

Hudak lags behind McGuinty and Horwath in leadership poll

Published Thursday, Apr. 19, 2012 9:01PM EDT
Last updated Friday, Apr. 20, 2012 8:25AM EDT

 

A Nanos Research poll shows Conservative Party leader Tim Hudak would be the worst-positioned of Ontario’s three major party leaders to contest another campaign.

janfromthebruce

Actually the optics for both the Liberals and Conservative is bad which means the NDP needs to tie them together - what is worse - McGuinty Liberals using a high paying appointment to get a open seat or a Conservative selling out for more money! Yeah, the optics for both parties - a paux on both their houses and pick door 3  - the ndp.

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

janfromthebruce wrote:

Actually the optics for both the Liberals and Conservative is bad which means the NDP needs to tie them together...

Too bad they missed their chance to do exactly that by forcing an election on the issue of austerity, with the NDP on one side, and the Libs and Cons on the other.

Instead we now have the Tweedledum Liberal-NDP Majority Government™ versus the Tweedledumber Conservative opposition. Not much of a choice for the voters of Kitchener-Waterloo!

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

Nice poll. But what was the question? They don't say. As it was styled a "leadership poll" I assume it was a personal popularity contest. That hardly ever translates into party votes on election day.

Polls are lousy predictors of election results when taken before the campaign begins. A good campaign can win any election.

janfromthebruce

Well yes and no Spector - polls give one some indication of the general population perspective. And campaigns matter for sure, and NDP always runs a great ground game. But I'm not going to argue with you because you are all down on the NDP because they didn't come out and do what you think they should have done.

adma

janfromthebruce wrote:
Byelections usually go against the government. If the Ontario Liberals manage to win a PC seat in a byelection it will be a remarkably good sign for them and clear evidence that they would have won a province wide election.

Of course, there was one stunning exception to the "against the government" rule in recent times: and that's where the Liberals paved the way for Hudak by killing John Tory off once and for all in HKLB.

Incidentally, notionally within the present K-W boundaries in 1990 (i.e. substituting North Kitchener for rural Wellesley and Woolwich), the NDP would have won.

janfromthebruce

Adma, that piece of information is good to know. One would need to know how much this riding has changed over time in terms of voters.

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

janfromthebruce wrote:

But I'm not going to argue with you because you are all down on the NDP because they didn't come out and do what you think they should have done.

That's an excellent reason for not wanting to argue. Far better to argue with people who agree with you, eh?

janfromthebruce

I'm just not into arguing with you. I rather spend my time doing other enjoyable things.

Freedom 55

janfromthebruce wrote:

A Nanos Research poll shows Conservative Party leader Tim Hudak would be the worst-positioned of Ontario’s three major party leaders to contest another campaign.

 

Wait... so the Hudak bogeyman from the budget threads is now the worst positioned of the three to contest another campaign? How does that work? These poll results came out 11 days ago, yet in [url=http://rabble.ca/babble/ontario/ontario-budget-2012-thread-3]this thread[/url], and [url=http://rabble.ca/babble/ontario/liberal-ndp-budget]this thread[/url], and several others, one of the main arguments from those defending Horwath's timorous approach was that an election would likely result in a Hudak government.

 

Less than a week ago:

Quote:

I didn't see the NDP winning and more to the point, I saw the Cons winning even with Hudak just because their campaign message is simple - cut cut cut!

Quote:

Hudak could have won for just not being the liberals and boy it would have been harris loser years all over again.

 

I guess now with the budget behind us, the NDP no longer needs Hudak to play the role of bogeyman to frighten people into avoiding an election at all costs. So now with a by-election in the wings it's time to downgrade his electoral prospects in order to buoy the partisan troops.

flight from kamakura

wow, if the ndp could win this one somehow, the liberals would probably be far less likely to try a stunt like that again any time soon.

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

Frankly, I hope the Liberals win and get their majority. It will finally remove the NDP's sorry excuses for toadying to the neoliberal austerity agenda, and maybe - just maybe - make them act like a real opposition party.

Stockholm

In other words better to be powerless and ideologically pure than to have some degree of power and responsibility and have to make some tough decisions and compromise from time to time...

if there really are people in the NDP that have such an immature attitude I hope that Horwath and Mulcair join forces to send out the message that those people are all PERSONA NON GRATA.

Life, the unive...

Nothing is cooler than armchair quarterbacking.  You can make all the right calls, but never have to get your jersey dirty.  It is grand.

Freedom 55

If anyone's been trying to keep her jersey clean in the last month it's Horwath.

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

"some degree of power and responsibility"? LOL.

The NDP has no power, and shares in the responsibility for the austerity program.

As for "ideological purity" there's no chance of that ever happening to the NDP, unless you're referring to liberal ideology.

"Persona Non Grata" is inscribed on the banner of all the right-wing thugs whose response to any criticism from the left is to expel them from the party.

adma

Of course, it depends upon who's nominated.  The Grit ideal would be Telegdi.  The NDP ideal would be Fife.  The PC ideal would be...I dunno, Elizabeth Witmer or something; maybe she can do a Bruce Hyer-esque 360...

Brachina

This blatant corruption, the Premier buying a Tory MP with a plume post in such a naked manevuer. The worse part is they know they can get away with because no charges for corruption will be layed.

I suspect the Tories will throw this election so they can safely have time to dump Hudak and stop the NDP from blunting austerity.

The only ones who can stop Dalton is the NDP.

David Young

Has the previous NDP candidate indicated if she is willing to re-offer?

Would Catherine Fife want to return as the candidate if there is any indication that the NDP could take this seat in the by-election?

Does Ontario have the same 6-month limit to call a by-election as everywhere else seems to?  We could be talking about this for a long time to come if McGinty decides to wait to fill the seat for as long as possible.

 

Freedom 55

David Young wrote:

Does Ontario have the same 6-month limit to call a by-election as everywhere else seems to?

 

Yes, that's my understanding.

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

Brachina wrote:
This blatant corruption, the Premier buying a Tory MP with a plume post in such a naked manevuer. The worse part is they know they can get away with because no charges for corruption will be layed.

This is such nonsense.Witmer didn't have to accept the position; in fact she probably sought it out. Until I hear Tim Hudak crying foul and denouncing Witmer as a sellout, your hypothesis is pure fantasy.

Quote:
I suspect the Tories will throw this election so they can safely have time to dump Hudak and stop the NDP from blunting austerity.

Oh, yes, the Tories are so very much in love with McGuinty's budget as originally introduced and so very upset about the puny "concessions" the NDP extracted from McGuinty in return for supporting the austerity program that they are willing to hand McGuinty a majority just to thumb their nose at the NDP.

Where do you get your political analysis - from a fortune cookie?

Quote:
The only ones who can stop Dalton is [sic] the NDP.

Too bad they blew their chance to "stop Dalton" by joining his Liberal-NDP Majority Government™.

Very Far Away

Latest poll in the riding:

Liberals 39%

Cons 32%

NDP 20%

Greens 7%

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1172087--poll-liberals-have-s...

Stockholm

One thing I noticed in that Forum poll is the big discrepancy between how people in the survey say they voted last October and how the riding actually voted.

Liberals - 41% compared to the 36% they actually got

PCs - 39% compared to the 43% they actually got

NDP - 11% compared to the 17% they actually got

So it looks to me like the people surveyed were quite skewed towards the Liberals and away from both opposition parties.

adma

Stockholm wrote:

So it looks to me like the people surveyed were quite skewed towards the Liberals and away from both opposition parties.

Though when one considers that, the NDP share nearly doubled...

Wilf Day

Very Far Away wrote:

Latest poll in the riding:

Liberals 39%

Cons 32%

NDP 20%

Greens 7%

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1172087--poll-liberals-have-s...

Stockholm wrote:

One thing I noticed in that Forum poll is the big discrepancy between how people in the survey say they voted last October and how the riding actually voted.

Liberals - 41% compared to the 36% they actually got

PCs - 39% compared to the 43% they actually got

NDP - 11% compared to the 17% they actually got

So it looks to me like the people surveyed were quite skewed towards the Liberals and away from both opposition parties.

Good catch. But the other thing I noticed was the NDP's potential:

Quote:
The poll found NDP Leader Andrea Horwath at 47 per cent approval, McGuinty at 34 per cent and 19 per cent for the Tory chief.

This should be fun.

adma

adma wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

So it looks to me like the people surveyed were quite skewed towards the Liberals and away from both opposition parties.

Though when one considers that, the NDP share nearly doubled...

And to follow up on this, if "the people surveyed" were transposed upon the real vote, the Liberals and PCs would be pretty much tied around 35% or so, and the NDP would be at around 30%!

David Young

Still no word from the previous NDP candidate if she is interested in contesting this one?

What about the federal candidate in 2011?  Any possibility there?

Brachina

M. Spector wrote:

Brachina wrote:
This blatant corruption, the Premier buying a Tory MP with a plume post in such a naked manevuer. The worse part is they know they can get away with because no charges for corruption will be layed.

This is such nonsense.Witmer didn't have to accept the position; in fact she probably sought it out. Until I hear Tim Hudak crying foul and denouncing Witmer as a sellout, your hypothesis is pure fantasy.

Quote:
I suspect the Tories will throw this election so they can safely have time to dump Hudak and stop the NDP from blunting austerity.

Oh, yes, the Tories are so very much in love with McGuinty's budget as originally introduced and so very upset about the puny "concessions" the NDP extracted from McGuinty in return for supporting the austerity program that they are willing to hand McGuinty a majority just to thumb their nose at the NDP.

Where do you get your political analysis - from a fortune cookie?

Quote:
The only ones who can stop Dalton is [sic] the NDP.

Too bad they blew their chance to "stop Dalton" by joining his Liberal-NDP Majority Government™.

Wow, first you become an apolegist for outright liberal political corruption, then you,personally insult me. I'll stop now least I say,something I'll regret.

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/mcguinty-defends-witmer-appoi...

Its just not me that's clued into the corruption.

janfromthebruce

which is how I am reading these Liberal/Conservative tea leaves - both parties come out looking corrupt. I also made some assumptions with that poll result and growth for the NDP candidate and hit that 30 magic number.

I wonder how pox on both those parties and a popular known NDP candidate cold bust both Liberal and Conservative pipe dreams in this riding.

No word on said candidate. That candidate would need to really look hard and consider it all and also how much one would give up at this point in their political career and whether the "timing is right".

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

Brachina wrote:

Wow, first you become an apolegist for outright liberal political corruption, then you,personally insult me.

I can't be an apologist for something that doesn't even exist in this case.

And I didn't "personally insult" you. I ridiculed what you said. It's called political debate. Get used to it.

Quote:
I'll stop now least I say,something I'll regret.

After what you've already said, I'm astonished that you think that ship hasn't already sailed.

 

janfromthebruce

Spector it's not called political debate and just because you say it does not make it true. The tone is purposefully bating and demeaning - for the end game of suppressing other view points and silencing. I don't like bullying.

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

You don't like debate. I don't even know why you bother posting here.

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

M. Spector wrote:
Where do you get your political analysis - from a fortune cookie?

Quote:
After what you've already said, I'm astonished that you think that ship hasn't already sailed.

Quote:
You don't like debate. I don't even know why you bother posting here.

M. Spector, please dial down your hostility and aggressiveness toward other posters. It doesn't make for a very nice place to live. While each of these is relatively minor and may not generally invite a moderator intervention on their own, each one still constitutes a personal attack and accretively begin to look something like bullying.

Wilf Day

Former Liberal MPP and MP Steve Mahoney was WSIB chair but was part-time, re-appointed last year.
http://iwocac.ning.com/profiles/blogs/steve-mahoney-again-in-driver

Now Elizabeth Witmer, who turned 65 last October and has decided to ease out of active political service (although she said last September when running for another term that she "has no plans to quit politics any time soon"), is being made a full-time chair at a salary of $188,000 per year.

Did she apply for the (not quite yet vacant) position? I'd say it was designed to (lure?) suit her.

How much more blatant could it be?

Mahoney announced his own retirement March 8. How long has Witmer's appointment been planned? Since March 7?

Brachina

Wilf Day wrote:

Former Liberal MPP and MP Steve Mahoney was WSIB chair but was part-time, re-appointed last year.
http://iwocac.ning.com/profiles/blogs/steve-mahoney-again-in-driver

Now Elizabeth Witmer, who turned 65 last October and has decided to ease out of active political service (although she said last September when running for another term that she "has no plans to quit politics any time soon"), is being made a full-time chair at a salary of $188,000 per year.

Did she apply for the (not quite yet vacant) position? I'd say it was designed to (lure?) suit her.

How much more blatant could it be?

Mahoney announced his own retirement March 8. How long has Witmer's appointment been planned? Since March 7?

That's not only more money then she made as an MPP, its more then any MPP makes except the premier. She also doesn't have run for office anymore, just continue to collect Dalton's generousity.

Its a huge breach of ethics.

Brachina

Dalton's corruption grows more naked for all to see, he's trying to publicly bribe MPPs with much more secure high salary jobs. I've never seen out right bribing of politicians done so publically and without concern. Its like Dalton's contempt for voters is endless. I'm not shocked he'd do this, I'm shocked he'd do it in,a way that is so obviously buying public officials. I'm appalled at his conduct.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1173415--liberals-co...

If I was one of the opposition leaders I'd make it clear that any MPP that accepts such an,offer would be fired from the post, charged wiith corruption, forced to pay back all money gained from that position.

Stockholm

I don't really care if the Liberals appoint some of the last remaining deadwood in the Ontario NDP (or PC) caucus to a golden parachute job as a Justice of the Peace or whatever...its not like any sudden vacancy wouldn't be an easy hold in a byelection! That being said, when its so obvious that McGuinty is bribing people with taxpayers money so he can get back a majority - my line of attack would be "why doesn't the Ontario Liberal party pay those salaries in perpetuity!!"

adma

Stockholm wrote:
I don't really care if the Liberals appoint some of the last remaining deadwood in the Ontario NDP (or PC) caucus to a golden parachute job as a Justice of the Peace or whatever...its not like any sudden vacancy wouldn't be an easy hold in a byelection!

Well, he chose right in K-W: for the Liberals, it's by far the lowest hanging fruit on the opposition vine...

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