Prediction Thread - Ontario Election 2014

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Captain Obvious

Well, since everyone else is doing it:

Libs: 50

Cons: 35

NDP: 22

Still, individual seat counts are a total crapshoot.

More generally, I'd figure the Libs with a mid/high-range minority, and the PCs as the second party. As someone else said in this thread, I get little sense of an "Orange Wave" regardless of recent polls, even with ongoing news of Liberal scandals.

But regardless of the truth of the matter, I've heard too many complaints that no one knows what the NDP stands for currently. I think this is reflected by Horwath's repeated denials that she will form any sort of coalition with the Tories--that was pretty obvious to me all along, but it is apparently not obvious to others. My guess would be that this would lead to polarization between the Libs/Cons-- i.e. if you aren't sure what the NDP will do politically or where they stand, you'll revert to "the devil you know."

Please note that I, personally, know exactly what the NDP currently stand for, and appreciate that they are the only major party willing to raise taxes on capital. But I don't think your average Ontarian does.

onlinediscountanvils wrote:

My only predictions are a 44.1% voter turnout, and workers and poor people will lose no matter which party wins.

Yeah, this. And I underline the obvious truism that low turnout will help the Tories, which is why I won't put the NDP first, 30% support from Ipsos-Reid or not.

"The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand..."

Edited for a typo in the predictions, it should be 35, not 45.

scott scott's picture

Debater wrote:

But I doubt Greens have most signs in Guelph.

The Greens have by far the most sogns on lawns and they were still going up as of yesterday. The Greens have run a very strong ground campaign for over a year now. I would call them a strong second and with a Liberal failure to get off the couch they could win.

Same goes for Dufferin - Caledon. Demotivated Tories and a strong Green campaign could offer a win there. A lot depends on who shows up to vote.

No pollster shows the Greens in contention there

But they wouldn't because provincial polls and agregators won't register spikes in a particular riding. Be prepared for some surprises.


wouldn't it be ironic if the Green Party leader held the balance of power with that one seat win in Guelph.


Nanos on TVO Agenda show, predicts NDP will do well to hold on to the 23% they had last time,


North Report.  Come on down!  I had it wrong.  While my 57 Libs was pretty much on the money, the NDP were stronger than I had given credit for (which I am not unhappy to see as stronger opposition makes for better government) and the PC collapse was far greater than I had imagined.  But let's face it - even iPCos was accurate in comparison to you.

Here's your final call.

PCs - 42 seats

NDP - 34 seats

Libs - 31 seats

I could suggest your taking POL100Y, a trip to an actual campaign, and getting out of your basement and talking to your neighbours had the grace to offer congratulations, so:

(1) dont drink the Kool-Aid;

(2) never, EVER, tout IPSOS and that poxy, useless ex-Mulroney staffer Darrell Bricker EVER again

(3) try for a bit of analysis: preponderance of data, qualitative judgements, ouija, something, anything other than what you have been doing.

Good luck in life and see you in four years' time