quebec election - 04.09.2012

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autoworker autoworker's picture

The debates will prove interesting.

Stockholm

DaveW wrote:

CAQ is basically poaching on Liberal demographics -- middle class, right of centre, anti-PQ -- and in the many three-way races across the province on Sept 4, the CAQ's new votes will largely be taken from the Liberals and help put the PQ over the top.

Hence the PQ could have a lopsided majority with only a modest , 30-something share of the popular vote. Let's hope not, but the math seems clear in a first-past-the-post electoral system with 3 major parties.

The difference in Quebec is that CAQ is starting to be firmly established as the second party among francophones...and if the trend of francophone Liberals shifting to CAQ continues - there will be a tipping point where CAQ starts winning a lot of marginal seats that would otherwise go PQ.

DaveW

a week ago, I would have agreed with you.

.... but CAQ seems to be sliding back to mid 20s support, where they are good upstarts,  but maybe only good enough for 10 seats, while 30 per cent might get them 30 seats

Bärlüer

They're not sliding back: Léger has them at 27% in the poll they released today, a 6-point gain from their last poll (August 1st).

Unionist

[url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2012/08/17/quebecvotes-bell... Bellemare won't run against Charest but backs PQ candidate in Sherbrooke[/url]

Bellemare served briefly as Charest's Justice Minister in 2003-4. Some years later, he publicly charged that Liberal party fundraisers, with Charest's knowledge, had exercised heavy pressure on him to name certain individuals to the bench (naming judges is supposed to be the Minister's prerogative). The Bastarache Commission was formed in 2010 to hear the charges, and in January 2011 ruled that there was no evidence to support them.

Still, it's hard to find anyone in Québec that believes Bellemare was lying or delusional. His latest public musings will hurt the Liberals.

 

Ken Burch

Stockholm wrote:

I'm amazed that ONLY 49% of Quebecers say they would be in favour of "having their cake and eating it too". Why isn't it 100%??

Maybe they just don't like cake?

Seriously, though...is it really necessary or useful to bother being snarky about this anymore?  Sovereigntists are hardly the greatest threat Canada faces these days.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I guess Marois (and Legault) is as tone deaf as Charest: PQ election win would 'redo' Plan Nord

genstrike

lagatta, my point was that the "French" approach to this question which you were alluding to (which, from what I gather, includes a healthy dose of Islamophobia) can not really be categorized as just another "frame" for anti-racism.

DaveW

Bärlüer wrote:

They're not sliding back: Léger has them at 27% in the poll they released today, a 6-point gain from their last poll (August 1st).

I was judging from CROP poll that had CAQ at 25, when it looked like they were set to break 30;

the analysis above about them gaining at Liberal expense certainly supported:

Depuis le début de la campagne électorale, le Parti libéral a perdu trois points de pourcentage pour descendre à 28%, la CAQ a gagné six points pour se hisser à 27% et le PQ se maintient en avance avec 33% des intentions de vote, indique ce coup de sonde réalisé auprès de 3 387 répondants du 13 au 16 août.

Remontée

La remontée de la CAQ se fait presqu’exclusivement aux dépens des libéraux, selon le sondeur Jean-Marc Léger. Les intentions de votes chez les francophones ont fondu à 19% pour le parti de Jean Charest, la CAQ recueille 29% et le PQ rafle la mise à 40%.

DaveW

a "second", breakout stage for CAQ would involve them clearly passing the Liberals poll numbers in the late August half of the campaign, and presenting francophones with 2 clear major alternatives to the present Govt., and not just one:

given the relative unpopularity of Pauline Marois, esp. vs Legault, and the decision of Quebec voters to "change govt." anything could still happen Sept. 4th ...

Leger shows one voter decision has been made: Charest will not be returned even as a minority leader, and at just 19% francophone support, not even as a junior coalition partner ... bye bye

Anglos looking elsewhere, to some degree:

Les libéraux reculent aussi auprès des anglophones et des allophones, des votes concentrés sur l’île de Montréal qui leur sont acquis depuis toujours. En une semaine, l’appui des allophones aux libéraux a fondu de 81% à 62% tandis que celui de la CAQ est passé de 9% à 20%. «La majorité des anglophones et des allophones sont insatisfaits du gouvernement sauf qu’ils ne savent pas où aller», observe Jean-Marc-Léger.

 Macpherson agrees more flux likely:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/opinion/Macpherson+Jean+Charest+time/7107458/story.html

 Results of two polls by different firms using different methods published on Thursday and Friday show the same general pattern: the PQ with enough support to form a majority government; the Liberals facing their worst defeat since 1976; and the CAQ showing signs of gathering momentum.

But the PQ may have peaked too soon in the campaign. There is time for it to become the main target of the other parties, for the election of a PQ government to become an issue itself, and for anti-PQ voters to rally behind either the Liberals or the CAQ.

 

Ippurigakko

CAQ and PLQ are splitting vote it would PQ victory.

I predict that PQ majority and CAQ opposition, PLQ third. If not then PQ will be minority and CAQ second, PLQ third.

lagatta

genstrike, perhaps we should be discussing social movements in France elsewhere. I was referring to antiracist campaigners in France, obviously not "Islamophobes", though some certainly have a suspicion of all religion, starting with Catholicism.

Islamophobia is a very ambiguous term - it can be a way of tarring people (including of Maghrebi descent) who are suspicious of organized religions as "racist". Or, more properly, refer to nasty amalgams between people of Muslim faith or origins (whether religious or not) with extremism and terrorism.

We have seen the latter right here with nasty web/whisper campaigns against Amir Khadir and Djamila Benhabib. Amir is from a secular, left intellectual Iranian family, is secular, never mentions religion. Benhabib strays into what could properly be seen as Islamophobia (the amalgams) herself, but of course the redneck major of Saguenay insinuated that "Algerians" and their ilk were forcing Québec to divest itself of old religious symbols, when of course this has been an ongoing fight waged by secular QuébécoisEs of "pure-laine" origin.

Michelle

6079_Smith_W wrote:

F.. that is the PQ's intention (and we don't really have any details, do we?) What does it imply? That seeing someone wearing such items is somehow going to pervert, upset or indoctrinate people, and we need to protect the public from them? It begs the question of what sort of people they DO want to present as the face of their government.

People who know how to "act white", it would seem.  Get that turban off and stick a crucifix on your chain.  We like people from all races and backgrounds, as long as they act and dress like white Christian laypeople.  That's what this proposition says to me.

NorthReport

Si is the main debate tomorrow, Sunday evening? And what time does it start?

 

And how can TVA just drop a party who has elected representatives from their debates?

 

DaveW

they say only 3 can form Govt. in 2 weeks

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Well, if it's a minority, that minority might have to rely on a smaller party's support, so it would make sense for the audience to see their views as well.

lagatta

To follow the debate with WRITTEN English summaries, click here:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/quebecvotes2012/story/2012/08/19/quebec-el...

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

CBC had excellent translation. I watched the full two hours. No knockout blows although Charest was pretty aggressive. Francoise David (QS) was ok but where was Amir Khadr?

We're going to be governed by Pauline Marois most likely after September 4 - God help us. I'd say the same about Legault and that weasel Charest.

Legault was by far the scariest of these for me. I'd almost consider moving if he becomes Premier.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Charest was fucking outrageous. He repeatedly accused the student demonstrators of violence and intimidation, which is total bullshit. It's the police who used excessive violence and intimidation especially after the totally uncalled-for Bill 78 was passed.

lagatta

Québec solidaire's leadership chose to have David do the debate. One party couldn't have two spokespersons in such a debate.

Charest was very aggressive but also sounded cornered. He did make a good point about the stupid forced retirement of nurses (and doctors, though I had heard a lot more about nurses, and doctors can always go into private practice).

But the problem he has is that so many people now think he is a crook, not just guilty of misjudgement.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

In the last 15 minutes both David and Marois emphasized again and again they will work for sovereignty as soon as possible. Legault said all this does is cause friction with Ottawa. Marois repeatedly raised the fact that Quebec has sent $50billion to Ottawa to buy airplanes and ships of war. All three - Legault, Marois, and Charest - are committed to raping the north of Quebec. Ms. David alone spoke against drilling off Old Harry and insisted the Magdalene Islands be protected from resource development, and insisted that we drop oil and move to green energy.

Bärlüer

I think Françoise David was fantastic. (And this is coming from someone who was somewhat uncertain about her ability to shine through in such a format.)

Of course, you might say I'm biased, but: 1) praise of her performance was widespread on Twitter; 2) most analysts (Chantal Hébert, Vincent Marissal, etc.) seemed to agree that she provided the best performance of all participants.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Legault is going to use an unbelievably heavy hand in health and education issues - he really outdoes Harper in his dictatorial manner. And he repeated his insistence on forcing students to sit in schools until 5 pm - he says to get help with homework, but he'll have to bring the teachers onside. He should put his brain in gear before shooting off his mouth.

Unionist

Françoise David was amazing. Besides speaking from a deep position of principle, she was capable, diplomatic, respectful... while the two men engaged in their dogfights. She agreed with Pauline Marois when it was appropriate to do so, and Marois returned the favour. And she spoke openly and courageously about Quebecers need for their country, for their independence - about QS's siding with the 99% - about the need for social, economic, and political progress. Whether you agree with her stand on independence or not, she was clear and unabashed. I thought throughout about the triumphalist "advice" to Quebecers in the other thread (the one where we are lectured that QS is dead and we "need" the NDP!!!). I am so proud of Françoise.

 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Unionist wrote:

 I thought throughout about the triumphalist "advice" to Quebecers in the other thread (the one where we are lectured that QS is dead and we "need" the NDP!!!).

 

For me, it's best summed up by another poster who suggested if QS continues to elect just one or two seats, then maybe it's time for progressives to look elsewhere.

NorthReport

It's a shame QS is being purposely excluded from the rest of the debates.

It was good strategy to have Françoise David in the debate, particularly so there would not be 3 men against 1 woman, and Amir is doing great representing QS on RDI. 

The best thing that could happen now would be a minority government with QS holding the balance of power.

Let's just hope that happens.

Unionist

Boom Boom wrote:

Unionist wrote:

 I thought throughout about the triumphalist "advice" to Quebecers in the other thread (the one where we are lectured that QS is dead and we "need" the NDP!!!).

 

For me, it's best summed up by another poster who suggested if QS continues to elect just one or two seats, then maybe it's time for progressives to look elsewhere.

Was that the advice you gave progressives about the federal NDP in Québec before May 2011? [b]"Look elsewhere?"[/b] Dump the losers?? How well did that work out?

I voted NDP in three consecutive federal elections, even though they won in only one riding - my own, as it happened. I didn't give up on them. Mulcair now is calling on Quebecers to stop wasting their time on QS and wait for him to form a provincial party - one which will be "federalist".

Why doesn't he just call upon all Quebecers to support Québec solidaire, while retaining whatever belief they have about sovereignty? That's what I do. What does Mulcair expect Quebecers to do in this election? Whom should they vote for? Sit at home?

Mulcair should keep his nose out of Québec politics. He stopped his entire caucus from uttering one word of support for the students. I think he has forfeited the right to tell us that we need to have a federalist party ruling in Québec City.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Unionist wrote:

Was that the advice you gave progressives about the federal NDP in Québec before May 2011? [b]"Look elsewhere?"[/b] Dump the losers?? How well did that work out?

If I had seen the Orange Wave coming, I would have jumped on it. Don't forget in the previous couple of elections I had campaigned here for Pierre Ducasse. He wasn't here last year.

lagatta

I was fairly sure that our NDP candidate, Alexandre Boulerice, would be elected (I also voted for him twice before) but didn't anticipate the size of the Orange Wave - gains, yes, but it outdid my predictions and hopes.

Françoise also spoke of the need to protect Anticosti Island (imagine "developing" such a gem) and of the fact that the most serious debt younger generations would bear is the environmental debt, and that it is time to act now to "sortir du pétrole" and promote electrified public transports.

Psst, Boom Boom, Khadir, not Khadr. The latter is the unfortunate young man languishing in prison for being dragged along into combat by his dad as a boy, and abandoned by the Canadian government. I don't know whether the two surnames are related.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Oops - thanks for correcting my spelling, lagatta. I'll go back and correct my post. Embarassed

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Yes, she's good. I wanted to see Khadir, though.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I think everyone knew ahead of time what to expect from Legault, Marois and Charest, because we're so used to these three. Ms. David is new to me and the only one, clearly, with a commitment to social issues and the environment. I wanted to see Khadir, though, as he's the elected member - right?

And if anyone had any questions as to where QS stands on sovereignty, Ms. David made it clear it's a priority for them.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

One of the things I was really happy to hear last night were pledges of more funding for Home Care - I am waiting to hear if my second application for Home Care has been approved or not. Home Care means I will be able to live in my own home longer rather than to sell everything and apply to a senior's residence of some kind, with an attendant loss in autonomy. I think it was Charest who made the promise of more funding last night, but maybe others did as well. I'll have to look at the transcript when I have time.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Yes, lagatta, Françoise was the only participant to score high on environment issues last night. Lest we forget, all of the other debate participants last night favour environmental rape of Quebec's north, where I live. Frown

 

ps:  does anyone on babble live further north in Quebec than I do? Just asking.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Does anyone know if the next debates will be translated? I can follow a bit of conversation in French, but last night's debate conversation was wayyyy too fast for me. Frown

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I just remembered there's a post above that shows  support for sovereignty is 49%. After the debate last night where both David and Marois emphasized that sovereignty is a priority for each of their parties, I wonder if that number will go up?

Contrariwise, Legault and Charest each could benefit from 'sovereignty fatigue' if such a malaise actually exists. Personally, I think the government of Stephen Harper is driving up support for an independent Quebec. Laughing

And this is likely the Achilles Heel for the NDP - Mulcair is a strict federalist. If Harper is driving up support for our independence, Mulcair could find himself on the wrong side of history here. Here's Mulcair in a  CBC article:

"My track record is clear — people know that I'm a strong federalist. I fought the 1980 referendum, but I also fought in the 1995 referendum. Quebec City is a very tough neighbourhood to practise politics when you are a federalist, but I stood up for Canada and I'll continue to do that," he said. "That'll always be my vision."

Right after that statement, CBC puts this in:

The NDP believes a simple majority, 50 per cent plus one vote, is enough to decide a future Quebec referendum.

I can't help but wonder if Mulcair feels some discomfort with the official NDP policy here.

 Even Justin Trudeau said something about not wanting to live in Harper's Canada. Laughing

love is free love is free's picture

i'm pleased that francoise is getting a lot of positive coverage in the media today.  of course, the english media is basically saying that charest won the debate, uh, what?

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Charest was defensive (naturally), arrogant, loud-mouthed, aggressive, and smirked throughout the whole evening. That's a winner????

Ippurigakko

so if pauline marois wins as premier, she will be ever first female premier of QC?

Ken Burch

Unionist wrote:

Boom Boom wrote:

Unionist wrote:

 I thought throughout about the triumphalist "advice" to Quebecers in the other thread (the one where we are lectured that QS is dead and we "need" the NDP!!!).

 

For me, it's best summed up by another poster who suggested if QS continues to elect just one or two seats, then maybe it's time for progressives to look elsewhere.

Was that the advice you gave progressives about the federal NDP in Québec before May 2011? [b]"Look elsewhere?"[/b] Dump the losers?? How well did that work out?

I voted NDP in three consecutive federal elections, even though they won in only one riding - my own, as it happened. I didn't give up on them. Mulcair now is calling on Quebecers to stop wasting their time on QS and wait for him to form a provincial party - one which will be "federalist".

Why doesn't he just call upon all Quebecers to support Québec solidaire, while retaining whatever belief they have about sovereignty? That's what I do. What does Mulcair expect Quebecers to do in this election? Whom should they vote for? Sit at home?

Mulcair should keep his nose out of Québec politics. He stopped his entire caucus from uttering one word of support for the students. I think he has forfeited the right to tell us that we need to have a federalist party ruling in Québec City.

Agreed.  Asking QS supporters and others to switch to a proposed Quebec NDP, a party that would always be bland and passionless on social justice and workers' rights issues compared to QS, and which has proved that it would always avoid real struggles for change and justice by refusing to back the Quebec students(there will never be another issue in Quebec that will matter MORE than taht one for left people) is asking them to give up.

A Quebec NDP government that was just like the Manitoba and Nova Scotia NDP governments could never be worth having at all.  It would actually be worse than having what Quebec has now to have that.  And realisticallyk, that's what forming a Quebec national branch of the NDP would mean, folks.  It would mean surrender and the acceptance of bland Prairie normalcy.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I'd wait and see what policies a new Quebec NDP actually draw up before condemning them out of hand before they even get organized. This is after all still just in the discussion stage as far as I can see.

Ken Burch

You don't see Mulcair's reactionary insistence that Quebec NDP MP's not back the students as a horrible sign?

Really, if they party stays out of that fight, they won't really be able to join any other struggles later.

And it doesn't even make sense if he's trying to take over from the PLQ.  It's only the more right-wing PLQ types that are actually insisting on the tuition increase and the suppression of protest.  Nobody who still ties themselves to the "Quiet Revolution" era of Quebec Liberalism would be adamant about making the students pay more.

QS is a party of human solidarity.  Is there any reason to think a Quebec NDP would be anything like that?  Wouldn't it put the "winning the election is all that matters" meme before any real commitment to change?

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I think this is somehow appropriate:

Brachina

Ken Burch wrote:

You don't see Mulcair's reactionary insistence that Quebec NDP MP's not back the students as a horrible sign?

Really, if they party stays out of that fight, they won't really be able to join any other struggles later.

And it doesn't even make sense if he's trying to take over from the PLQ.  It's only the more right-wing PLQ types that are actually insisting on the tuition increase and the suppression of protest.  Nobody who still ties themselves to the "Quiet Revolution" era of Quebec Liberalism would be adamant about making the students pay more.

QS is a party of human solidarity.  Is there any reason to think a Quebec NDP would be anything like that?  Wouldn't it put the "winning the election is all that matters" meme before any real commitment to change?

Your thinking is flawed in so many ways. One it wouldn't be lead by someone from the Praire's, it would be lead by a Quebecer, most likely French, and into a different political field with its own history and with that would come a very different flavour of NDP. One can already see the growing positive influence of Quebecers on the Federal NDP.

Secondly the MPs weren't allowed to take sides in any major way because its provincial justistiction, this obviously would not be an issue for the Quebec NDP who as a Provincial Party could take a stand without violating turf. In fact the awkward position the NDP found themselves in maybe one of the reasons the NDP has decided to do this.

As for QS having better policies, one you don't know what policies the the NDP will have, and two QS targets only a narrow niche and so can pick all the favoured policies of that narrow niche, the price for that being no real electoral future, no chance at government, and no positive change.

And no I'm not advictating victory at any cost, but appealing to and learning about the wants and needs of a greater volume of people.

Plus I hate the cospokesman thing they got going, pick one.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I thought someone else would have posted this by now, but no, so here goes:

Hébert: Quebec election: Are Liberals about to follow their federal counterparts?
 
When Mulcair looks at the Quebec scene these days, he rightly spots the opportunity to place the missing provincial link in the NDP’s national chain in the vacuum that a historical Liberal defeat on Sept. 4 would create.

 

So, it looks like the NDP want to replace the Libs, not QS.

 

janfromthebruce

That makes more sense to me BB - the Libs will be in a waste land for a long time and creating a progressive federalist NDP provincial opportunity makes sense.

theleftyinvestor

I wonder - if someone in the Assembly were willing to cross to the new NPDQ, would they stand on the same principles as the federal party and say no? Or would they take whatever opportunity they can get to grab a toehold? Presumably if they want to be in the next election debate, they will want an MNA, and that's going to happen either through a floor crossing or a by-election.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Exciting days ahead, no doubt. And a long period of waiting - just as on the federal scene we anxiously await 2015.

love is free love is free's picture

there's been a torrent of good news for qs following david's debate performance, a few links here: http://w5.montreal.com/mtlweblog/?p=21636

 

love is free love is free's picture

a little late, but here's maioni smacking down the whole benhabib issue: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/saguenay-mayor-merely-a-sidesh...

by the way, in addition to some other polls showing the pq with a crushing lead around that same saguenay region, benhabib seems to be in a pretty good position to end up in the national assembly out of trois rivières: http://www.threehundredeight.com/2012/08/tight-race-in-nicolet-becancour...

i don't really know why other than for the sake of plurality and i guess to deny the caq another seat, but i do hope that aussant wins out in nicolet-bécancour.  ideally, this election comes down to a pq minority with qs owning enough seats to act as a minority partner, and to this end, i think aussant's presence in the assembly could well be counted in the positive column, no matter his commitment to adversarial relationships with the feds and the federal ndp.

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