Who Replaces Gordon Campbell II

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The fact that Stilwell and Flacon both attended a post convention pub celebration of George Abbott on Saturday night and given George and Christy`s public spat over policy I think it is obvious that an anybody but Christy coalition is starting to develop and with Stilwell expected announcement that she is joining the Abbott camp starts to suggest that this is in fact happening.

I supect that George and Kevin`s supporters will one two each other on the ballot - Don`t know where Christy`s second vote will go - that leaves DeJong - he could be the kingpin - who will his supporters throw their second vote do - both Mike and Kevin have strong support in the Indo- Canadian community so that could help Kevin.

As for who the NDP would like to lead the Liberals - probably Falcon because of his big business connections.- this opens the door for big Labour connected Dix to lead the NDP

The NDP are concerned about Abbott because he appeals to the swing voter with his moderate and consensus building - a good match here would be Farnworth as he is considered moderate by many Liberals.

The NDP cannot match the glitz of Christy - for the sake of the Province I hope that Christy gets the same kind of result that she got when she tried to become Mayor of Vancouver.


I think that the "glitz of Christy" cuts both ways for the BC Liberals. She could catch fire and build momentum and win a snap election. But she could also easily self-destruct and flameout given her propensity for gaffes and flip-flops and she is reputed to be kinda dumb.

If there is an "anyone but Clark" campaign among some Liberals - what is it based on? Who exactly in that party is desparately trying to prevent her from being leader? Who are her enemies and why do they hate her so much? Its clearly more than just a Tory vs Grit thing because it sounds like a lot of the "anyone but Clark" people are willing to elect Abbott who is also a big "L" Liberal.



`I think that the "glitz of Christy" cuts both ways for the BC Liberals. She could catch fire and build momentum and win a snap election`


Which is exactly what many people want and think what will happen - she has refused to say where she will run - remember she has no seat in the House - her home riding is Vancouver Fairview - held by a Liberal and a swing riding - Gordon`s Point Grey riding will be coming open as it is expected that he will resign his seat once the transition of power takes place - that riding has voted NDP in the past and is not a shoo-in - she has also not committed to stay in politics and run in the next election and be a team member - she is only on a 3 month leave from her radio job. While BC Rail will haunt her among the political types the average voter is more concernede about the economy, jobs and some civility in Victoria - none of which I think Christy is able to deliver - perhaps i can best sum it up this way - my best friend is basically non-political and hasn`t belong to any political party over our 50 + year friendship. He well knows my political views - in discussing this race he criticises me in a friendly way for my support of Abbott over Clarke and Falcon - yesterday over coffee he confided that he now likes Falcon - feels Christy is all fluff and lacks substance and seemed to be flip flopping on issues - I think his views are becoming more common among the voters -


She was the endorsement of one minor sitting MLA`s - the remainder are either in Abbott`s or Falcon camp - Stilwell has dropped out and gone to Abbott and MacDiramaid and Chong have gone to Falcon - Chong also attended Abbott`s party - it has very little to do with Federal affiliations.


Perhaps some others will have some more to say about Christy and why she shouldn`t be premier.



It is an important point that if Christy Clark wins - she will only have been supported by ONE member of the current BC Liberal caucus. Party leaders with such meager caucus support often get themselves into a lot of trouble because they have no power base or allies within the caucus. She could be regarded as an alien plant.

She also probably needs to win a byelection and get into the leg. BEFORE she would be in any position to call an election. If she won the leadership, she would become Premier on Feb. 28...then there are a few events that have to happen before she could call an election - even if she wanted to - namely wait for the BC NDP to pick a leader on April 19 and also wait until AFTER the federal election which is almost certain to take place May 2 or 9. I don't know how you can have a Premier with no seat for months at a time...and given that no one is going to call a BC election the morning after the federal election - the earliest she could do it would be a late May call for late June...by which time her appeal will be even more eroded and there is also talk of having the HST referendum in June - I think the BC Liberals would rather have needles stuck through their eye balls than have a provincial election in conjunction with an HST referendum.


George Abbott announced today that Falcon is his 2nd choice. And apparently Abbott will be meeting with Falcon and Deyong next week to decide these matters in further detail. That said, I suspect that Deyong will cut a deal with Clark in terms of 2nd choices.

Those 2nd choices will decide who goes over the top. Now will the 90,000 members follow their lead? I always sensed that Abbott would be the beneficiary of most of the 2nd choices from the Clark and Falcon camps. OTOH I always sensed that Abbott and Deyong supporters would tend to have Clark as their 2nd choice. 

I still think it will come down to either Clark or Abbott but it's still a mugs game right now.


It`s De Jong - if you believe what AGT is writing on his blog De Jong has already cooked a deal with Clark because she is the least likely of the contenders to call any type of inquiry into BC Rail - Abbott has stated I beleive that he wants a review of the plea bargain and payments but not the rail sale.


George Abbott announced today that Falcon is his 2nd choice.


Not surprising as both were enjoying a drink - he wine and Kevin a beer at George`s post vote pub party on Saturday - I think both of those candidates realize what could happen to there careers if Christy and her gang get in - i asked George on Saturday if there was a second choice that we should support - he was non-commital at the time.


So, who wins if the final round is Clark vs. Falcon?

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Here's the thing with Christy Clark: because she was education minister when the largest share of the cuts to education took place, and because she made some very nasty comments attacking the BC Teachers Federation when she was education minister, a Premier Christy Clark could galvanize support for the campaign to defend public education. This campaign prevented schools from being closed in Vancouver, one of the few recent victories for the left in this province. Some of the 'anybody but Clark' vote may be BC Liberal members who don't want to pick a fight with teachers and parents.

A Premier Christy Clark probably helps both Dix and Farnworth in the BC NDP leadership race; Farnworth for the reasons mentioned by Stockholm, and Dix because he has the closest connections to the campaign to defend public education.

Another large chunk of the 'anybody but Clark' vote is probably folks who don't want a leader and Premier who is not a sitting MLA.


Went to an informal 'drop-in' Q&A with Abbott the other day.

Not much in the way of charisma but the Libs (and the province) could do a lot worse.

Anybody know if anything is planned in the way of all-candidates' debates for the NDP?


With the no name candidate from Parksville dropping out this morning and apparently going to Abbott we are down to a four legged race with Christy in the lead and De Jong at the back of the pack - that much seems to be consensus of the pundits - whether George or Kevin is second or third depends really on who you are supporting - if shear membership numbers were the determining factor Kevin would be in second BUT membership numbers aren`t going to decide the outcome as all ridings have an equal weighted 100 points - this hurts DeJong who has signed up lots of new members in a few ridings - while not a certainty many members where there is a sitting Liberal MLA will follow the lead of there member and go that way - this is where George and Kevin have the advantage having almost 100 % of the sitting members between them - some have suggested the focus wiill be on those ridings where the Liberals don`t have a sitting member - the candidate who succeeds in signing here might have an edge - I have no idea who wins this part of the race but Christy has many of the Class of 2001 that were defeated in 2005 backing her so if they have any clout in their former ridings that could be a factor.

One item of note that hasn`t been dwelled on that much - while the Party voted about 98 % for the weighted ballot it only approved the minumum 2 names on the ballot something like 700 in favor to 600 opposed - this leads me to believe that one of the fore runners didn`t want there cat or phanton new members having to pick a second choice - the only person who would be hurt by this is Christy because if as I suspect DeJong is off after the first count and Christy picks up a majority of DeJong`s second choices and still be short of the magic number - not a guaranteed thing as many are Indo - Canadian can could go to Falcon and a few to Abbott - Christy is unlikely to gain much support from either George or Kevin on the third count - At this point i say it is a toss up between George and Kevin for the top spot.

Another tidbit that has come to my attention is that most of the gang of 11 that were ready to force Campbell out are all in the Abbott camp - whether this has any traction within the Party I don`t know.

Over to you guys

Pogo Pogo's picture

Interesting that based on your analysis the initial race is for second place on the first ballot (and presumably the second ballot).  Do you think that Clark has more traction with supporters of either of the second place contendors?


And probably the worst choice for the NDP.


BC's Most Likely Next Premier? George Abbott

Why the farmer, historian and career politician is favoured to succeed Gordon Campbell.





Clark has little or no support from the Abbott and Falcon camps - remember George has indicated that his supporters should choose Falcon as there second choice and George and Christy have been having a media war of words. Some of Abbott`s people have felt that whoever is in 2nd place after the initial count will likely emerge as the new leader and Premier.

I agree that Abbott were be the worst choice from an NDP point of view - perceive as moderate. middle of the road, liked by both sides of the House and willing to listen to people`s view - He would beat the NDP if Dix is the leader and I think it would be a toss up going against Farnworth - as Mike also a more moderate temperment etc. Both are career politicans and well versed in the art of political gamesmanship.

FYI - there is no second ballot - there is one ballot where you must pick at least two choices - all four if you like but it is highly unlikely that third or fourth choices will factor in the race - if after the first count the there is no clear winner then the fourth place person`s second choices are then counted - this is Clark`s best hope if she is too win in that she must take almost all of DeJong`s votes or points - as I stated above a large portion of Mike`s support is concentrated in a few ridings with significant Indo- Canadian voters - under the weighted system even if all 6000 members of one riding where to vote for DeJong it would only translate into 100 points in the count - he would need a lot of ridings to give Christy the Premiership. Given that Christy and Mike have one sitting member between them they don`t appear to have a lot of the ridings behind them - this is why some of the campaigns have been targetting the non Liberal ridings - mind you - having live in Mt Pleasant for 30 years finding a 100 people to support any Liberals might be tough but if you are successful then you could transfer close to all of your points to one candidate.

In talking to George - this was before the two candidates dropped out - he always felt it would go to the fourth count before a 50% +1 vote would materialize - as it stands now it will likely go to a third count.

So unlike regular conventions where candidates drop out and then go to another candidate or abstain altogether we will be require to do all of our political homework before entering that PIN number and voting our choices.


I think Dix is being underrated here, and this is not for the first time. I think Dix most threatens the Liberals, that he will win, and then go on to become Premier. 

Don't expect anything NDPwise until the Liberal leader is chosen - that's the strategy, which is a good one.

Pogo Pogo's picture

My error, the second ballot is a virtual thing.  Is there a minimum amount like 10% that a candidate needs to survive and if they don't get this do they get removed as well as the next person above them.  I know in NDP leaderships 5% has been a requirement with those below 5% being dropped as well as the lowest of the people above 5%.  I am just wondering if there is a line that De Jong has to cross to be the only one knocked off, or if there is a chance that he and the #3 finisher on the first ballot (count) could possibly be removed. 


Only the last person is removed after each count regardless of how many or few votes they have.  So if DeJong goes first - either Falcon or Abbott would go second although I guess it is theorically possible that both Kevin or George could leapfrog over Christy and drop her off the ballot but that scenario appears to be highly unlikely.

This is why the next 10 days are crucial to the candidates to shore of there vote and endorse different ones as there second choice.

Don`t know if the BS coming out about the BC Rail will help Christy or not - hasn`t changed my view of her one bit - while you might not be criminally involved there is something in life that people in politics often forget and that is ethics.



Colin Hansen has now endorsed Kevin for the leadership - guess he wants a cabinet position in the new government - this is one more blow to Christy and solidifies Kevin growing support and one of the leaders of the anybody but Christy campaign.

Watch for Christy to start attacking Kevin - she must be sensing that he is gaining support at her expense.

Based on this endorsement I will give Kevin a slight edge over George in the race but I have made predictions before that have being wrong.


According to V. Palmer, internal polling within both the Clark and Abbott camps shows the race as 1- Clark, 2- Abbott, 3- Falcon. Abbott also seems to be the big winner this week with both Stilwell and Mayne pulling out of the race and supporting Abbott. And in the background are all the rumours of some sort of Clark/Deyong agreement. I also doubt that Falcon will be the beneficiary of many 2nd choice votes. I'm still thinking it will be either Clark or Abbott in the end.


Why would Abbott`s people give their second vote to Clark when he has stated that he supports Kevin on the second count.

Why would Abbott`s people support Clark after her attacks on George for pointing out some mid-course policy changes

There is no way that DeJong support is all going to Clark - remember he has the support of no sitting MLA`s and many of his new members are concentrated in a few ridings - it`s 100 points for each riding regardless of how many members that riding has. The only riding that he may be able to deliver all 100 points would be his own. Where will the large number of Indo-Canadian votes go once Mike is off the ballot - many live in ridings where Falcon has support but George may benefit because of his argicultural background - blueberry and strawberry farmer.

Unless Christy falls from first - her second choice won`t be counted because that only happens if you are forced off the ballot - it is my understanding of the rules that even if you drop out of the race after the vote has commenced you votes will still be counted so any deal making will have to be done before the vote commences.

Yes it could be Clark and Abbott - really depends who is in second place after the first count - Colin`s endorsement of Kevin to me is the final nail in Christy`s coffin.


It is another day and Clark is points ahead of Abbott but I am sure that will pick up.  Abbott is trustworthy, Christie is Not and even if women felt cheated with James, Clark is no replacement no matter how much Clark says she is into families, certain families that is. Abbott is about the province and the people of BC.  Christie is Not.  I am deeply troubled with the idea of Christie being in power I don't think BC's most vunerable will endure.  It is from being at the bottom to long, bc kids can't even be compared to the National average anymore.  Clark is not prepared to make any changes, despite her own experience of having a child needless die because her Ministry failed to respond.  Not much has changed in the Ministry of Families and Children except increased deaths, so more of the same if Christie has a go.  I got my fingers crossed for Abbott, and Dix for the NDP. it is a two party province so I'm a two party girl.

 I forgot to mention Falcon's numbers are so low he is barely even in the race.


Mybabble - obviously I have been following the Liberal leadership campaign fairly closely as I have a say in the election of the new leader and Premier - Is there a reputable survey out there showing a riding by riding breakdown of each candidates support and how many points they will be getting from each one - I have not seen one. Falcon must have a fair amount of support with what something like 18 MLAs supporting him - they are likely to deliver the bulk of there first round support to Kevin just as the majority of Georges support will come from those MLAs supporting him.

In a weeks time we will know the answer to all of our postings and predictions.


If I were Kevin Falcon, frankly I don't know if I'd want Colin Hansen's endorsement. It's a little like Bush endorsing McCain...


It didn't hurt McCain's campaign to win the GOP nomination that he was seen as the choice of the "party elders" - even if it harmed him in the the general election. Hansen and Campbell are BELOVED by BC Liberal Party members. The people who will elect the next leader are the same people who would crawl naked over a parking lot full of broken glass to help Gordon Campbell - they are not at all represenattive of the electorate as a whole.


De Jong supporters going to Abbott when he is knocked off the ballot. My hunch all along has been that Abbott will win.


``Pleased and honoured to be receiving the second-ballot votes of key Mike de Jong organizers. Thank you to Gulzar Cheema and Prem Vinning for the support!`


North Report - I was just about to post this news myself.


When I was phoned by the DeJong people yesterday the canvasser after I indicated who my first and second would be stated that no one had indicated any support for Christy and when I asked him who his second choice was he say no way to Christy.


This is a another good turn of events for the Abbott campaign as Mike is likely the first one off the ballot.





Christy's lead is shrinking according to a poll released today. She may lead on the first ballot but she's done.




This has been the thinking of most of the camps that once the second votes are factored in it doesn`t favor Clark and is what the Abbott team is counting and hoping will propel him to the leadership.

The poll was also open to any one - not just people who are actually voting members so while because of media exposure Christy is better known doesn`t mean that the people actually electing the new leader are of the same opinion.



So if someone votes for Christy on the 1st ballot, does she automatically get their vote on the 2nd ballot? Or can the voter change their vote on the 2nd ballot even though she may be 1st after the first ballot?




The is only one ballot - you must put your minimum 2 names when you vote - under the weighted vote - there are 8500 points - 100x85 ridings - to be elected leader you need 50% + 1 = 4251- here`s a possible example of what you might see after the first count

Clark - 3000 points

Abbott - 2500 points

Falcon - 2200 points

DeJong - 800 points

There is no clear winner - so DeJong is eliminated and HIS 2nd place votes are counted - for the example let`s say all 800 points went to Clark - she would have 3800 points

Third count - Falcon is eliminated all points goes to Abbott = 2200 + 2500 = 4700 points = George Abbott is new leadewr and premier.

There was a reason why Christy`s people were probably the ones who didn`t support the 2 votes on the ballot because it was more of a handicap for WHOEVER was in first place and all camps agree that Christy is in the lead.

While this is an example I hope it gives some insight to how this voting system works. It is highly unlikely that any candidate can deliever all of their point to any one person - this is more of an example of what I would like to happen based on who I am supporting.


remind remind's picture

What a pleasure, to read here BC Liberal supporters discussing who they are voting for and want to win. Okay not so much, as it gives the appearance that the BC Liberals are actually progressives and worthy  of being discussed seriously here at babble. When they are not.


Having said that go christie go.....cause if any of  the other sociopaths running  win, BC will be worse off.


remind wrote:

What a pleasure, to read here BC Liberal supporters discussing who they are voting for and want to win. Okay not so much, as it gives the appearance that the BC Liberals are actually progressives and worthy  of being discussed seriously here at babble. When they are not.


Having said that go christie go.....cause if any of  the other sociopaths running  win, BC will be worse off.

Remind, Actually Christy Clark is the only one with a realistic chance of winning another minority/majority government. If she loses, the NDP is guaranteed the next election.


I think many people think Abbott is actually the most difficult for the NDP to beat. Christy Clarke is a loose cannon who would probably be another Kim Campbell-style flameout.


So it looks like it might actually be hard to stop Clark.


According to an internal Clark campaign poll of party members only across all ridings with an 890 sample size, here are the results:

Clark - 43%

Abbott - 27%

Falcon - 20%

Deyong - 9%



I saw that article, but it was still very unclear as to whether this was a poll of BC Liberal voters or card carrying members who have a vote in the leadership. The poll also had a very high 24% who were undecided. If this is actually a poll of party members - that seems like an extraordinarily high number of people to have no idea who they are voting for just two days before the vote!


All of the candidates have been polling Party members regularily although since I told Clark`s people what I thought of her campaign they have left me alone - guess they don`t want me to remind them of BC Rail - failure to commit to a by-election - failure to understand the anger over the HST etc.

My sense is the above % are fairly close to how I see the campaigns - what it doesn`t indicated is how those % translate into the points needed for election as leader - if it were a popularity contest Clark wins hands down - hopefully the Liberal Party members will go for some substance and not just fluff.

In a little over 48 hours we should know who the new leader and Premier designate will be.

Feel free to offer you opinion on who you think will win not necessarily who you want to win.

From my posts Abbott is my first choice with Falcon a distant second.



Pogo Pogo's picture

I think that DeJong will be incredibly low.  That most of his votes will come from a few ridings surrounding his Abbotsford.  The system will reduce this even further.  Where his votes go is not important.  Whomever finishes third on the first ballot is finished.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Falcon is definitely the worst of the bunch from a policy standpoint.

Falcon wants to allow drilling for oil on ALR land. He is more likely than the other contentders to ram through the North Fraser Perimeter Road over the opposition of New West City Council. And he is more likely than the others to want to pursue more P3 projects just for the sake of offering more goodies to large corpoate BC Liberal donors.


Another thing to keep in mind is making sure that you get your supporters to cast there ballot either on -line or by toll free number from anywhere in North America.

My riding association is having a meet and greet on Saturday morning and there will be computers and phones available for any member who has there PIN to cast a vote.

My worry is that DeJong - while running fourth may transfer enough points to Clark to put her far enough ahead that even if Falcon who I think is in 3rd were too transfer most of his votes to Abbott there might be just enough slippage to Clark to put her over the top.

One question that I haven`t seen much chatter on is whether all the candidates would be willing to serve in a Cabinet if Clark was the Premier. Also would Bill Bennett and Blair Lekstrom come back into the fold if Clark wins.



Basement Dweller

Clarke is too much of a Liberal and Falcon is a ideological extremist (not to mention Smithers to Mr. Burns err Campbell).

That leaves Abbott. I watched him on the news the other night. He is soft-spoken, down-to-earth and gives off "moderate" vibes. His personal manner is totally different from Campbell. He is hard to place on the political spectrum which is a huge advantage. I checked the MLAs supporting him, and it confirmed his widespread support. Notably, Bennett supports him which gives further distance from Campbell.

He is no backwoods hick either. He has a Masters degree and has served in cabinet for many years with no controversy.

My overall impression is that this guy is destined to be Premier. I don't know which of the NDP contenders can stop him.


Oh, oh, maybe bad news here for Christy on the eve of the vote.


BASI-VIRK: Was there a BC Liberal cabinet leak on $1 billion sale of BC Rail? Newly released evidence shows Gary Collins stunned by lobbyists' info in 2004 police interview





I also saw in an article in the last few days that George at one time was a member of the NDP - suspect that might be the federal wing - if i can find a link to it I will post it.

The reasons you outline are why I have supported George from Day One.

I would think what I know about the NDP leadership candidates that Farnworth matches well with Abbott - both seems to have a respect for each other in the House and both come across as people who will listen and then lead.

We will know on Saturday around 6 PM.


There will be an anti-HST rally outside the Convention Centre where the Liberals will be, starting around 3-4 PM


Basement Dweller wrote:

That leaves Abbott. I watched him on the news the other night. He is soft-spoken, down-to-earth and gives off "moderate" vibes. His personal manner is totally different from Campbell. He is hard to place on the political spectrum which is a huge advantage.

In that vein, here's a 1999 interview Abbott had with Vaughn Palmer on the Voice of BC. Surprising revelation therein "George Abbott was a New Democrat":




Thanks for the link - knew I had heard it somewhere recently.



Christy Clark = Kim Campbell


I think Clark needs to be very close to 50% on the first ballot to prevail in a multi-ballot contest. The rules require everyone to state at least a second preference. Abbott and Falcon have basically told their supporters to put the other as their second preference. A number of prominent De Jong supporters have said Abbott is their second choice. Although Clark and Abbott are probably closest together from a policy perspective (and both federal Liberals), she and Abbott have attacked one another publicly moreso than the other candidates, and I doubt that many of Abbott's supporters outside the Lower Mainland will be inclined to vote for "city-slicker" Clark.

Clark seems to be nobody's second choice. If she is close to 50% on the first ballot, she might be able to pick up enough stragglers from the other camps to go over the top. If she's at 40 percent (or lower), it's hard to see how she wins.

We're going to be stuck with whoever wins for the next two and a half years, so here's hoping that the Libs elect the person likely to do the least damage to the province.

Pogo Pogo's picture

ghoris wrote:

We're going to be stuck with whoever wins for the next two and a half years, so here's hoping that the Libs elect the person likely to do the least damage to the province.

I agree.  Between Abbott and Clark, I think Christy Clark is both the most beatable and the least capable of implimenting harmful policies. 


If its Christy Clark, we shall see if it actually is 2.5 years. hasn't she been musing about calling an early election? and isn't there the issue of her not having a seat and being in danger of losing if she has to run in a byelection in Vancouver-Point Grey?


She has stated that she feels that she needs a mandate when she becomes Leader as only a small number of people have given her the reigns of power.

Over my years of watching ruling parties change leaders in mid-stream the Opposition generally wails on about the new Premier not having a mandate and egging on the new leader to go to the people BUT since in this case the NDP have there own leadership woes I haven`t yet heard such talk from them yet but once there new leader is in place I wouldn`t be surprised to here such talk especially if Falcon comes up the middle and wins - Labour is itching for a fight and what better target that Big Business friend Kevin. As for running in Point Grey - well she lives in Fairview so she wouldn`t be far from home - Point Grey and Quadra Federally have elected Leaders ie John Turner even when the Party they are leading isn`t popular at all especially if she were to make it like she was only there until the next general election BUT since I don`t think Christy is gonna win I won`t worry about that at this time.


Ghoris - I feel that if Christy is at or around 40% after the first count and the second place person - hopefully Abbott is no more than 10% behind she will be in trouble - if the lead is larger than 10% she will probably pick up enough stray votes to slide into the Premier`s chair.



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