Your prediction on the BC Election May 12, 2009

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Does advance polling not usually favour those ahead in the polls at the time?  (eg. in this case Campbell's Liberals)

Although, as was the case with the Obama movement in the United States last year, being able to register new voters and get them to vote can mean that a challenger is being successful in going up against the status quo of the incumbent.


Keep in mind that the rules for voting in the advance poll were changed and there also was one additional day.

Previously you were only suppose to vote at the advance poll if you were working on the elections, were going to be out of your riding on election day - now the advance poll is opened to anyone - having spend three days scrutineering at the advance poll in Vancouver False Creek many people were happy to have that choice and not have to rush to the polls on election day  - interestingly - there were two advance polls in my riding  - one at the Roundhouse and the other at Science World - on Day One we had over 600 while Science World had only a little over 100 - don't have the final figures for each poll.

Elections BC has been pushing voting at the Advance Poll as part of there strategy of getting the % up to around 62%.

There should also be an increase in the number of registered voters as there are more people living in the province and the rules for registering were simplified - we had a case where a youthful voter living in shelters and on the street appear at our station and wanted to vote - because he didn't have a fixed address and no acceptable ID - we referred him to a nearby shelter that he has stayed at and to our pleasant surprise he returned a little while later with the special form used for such individuals - he was signed up and given a ballot and was happy that he was able to vote.

As of Thursday morning we were the only polling location to have used one of these registration forms.

If you remember back to the US election in some of the states the advance or mail in voting was the way to go and there wasn't a lot of votes to be counted on the actual election day.

So until we see what the turnout is like tomorrow it is to early to tell if it will be a large turnout or not + the weather may be wet here in the Lower Mainland tomorrow.

In 2005 the Liberals took there vote for granted - this time they seem to be a lot more serious about getting there supporters out.



flight from kamakura

i bet it's 42-42-1, which the liberals getting a plurality of the vote.  by most accounts, this looks set to be the closest bc election since i've been aware of politics.  really neat.

if the ndp wins kamloops-north thompson early on, it'll probably mean government.  if it takes while, the liberals should squeak it out.  and if knt is lost, the liberals probably have an advantage from 7-15 seats.


Liberals-50; NDP-35.

remind remind's picture

Can continue here

And no way in hell caissa. ;)



I hope I'm wrong. My rule is to always vote for the bad guys to do better than I expect. Then I am pleasantly surprise, remind.


I predict 57 seats for the Liberals, 27 for the NDP , 1 independent (Delta South) and 0 for the Greens. I do think the Greens will take enough votes in some ridings to prevent the NDP from winning them.

I also think STV will fail.

Does anything register with voters though?


Rise in post secondary, highest child poverty wage, lowest minimum wage, 400 million over run of convention centre, a convicted criminal drunk driver for Premier (some example he is setting) court houses closed, cuts to legal aid,  closed jails, increased homelessness etc etc

To me the NDP should be up 10-20 points over El Gordo with all the shenanagens but they are not and I would wager that has a lot to do with who is leading the NDP in this province..


I already voted for the NDP and 'no' to the STV.


One thing to keep in mind is that in the end elections are first and foremost a referendum on the incumbent government. If polls were all saying that 60% of British Columbians strongly disapproved of the Campbell government and only 30% approved and yet, the BC Liberal were leading the NDP by a significant margin - then I would agree that there is a problem with the opposition that is preventing them form winning. But in every poll I've seen, the Campbell government has about a 50% approval/satisfaction rating. I realize that if you travel is progressive NDP/union/green/social advocacy circles it might boggle your mind to realize that about half of people in BC actually LIKE Campbell (I wish that wasn't the case, but what can you do). You can have the greatest leader in the world and running a brilliant campaign, but if most people just don't feel that its "time for a change" then there is not much you can do.


battleground seats projection

island: NDP will win all seats they currently hold except North Island plus will pickup Comox and the new seat.

vancouver: NDP pickups Fraserview, holds Fairview and loses False Creek

Lower mainland: NDP holds all seats they curently have plus win Burnaby Deer Lake, Burnaby lougheed, other mission seat, will lose panorama ridge in surrey, will win fleetwood, tynehead, will lose burnaby north. Delta south will go independent.

interior; will hold all seats + pickup stikine, kootenay east, boundarysimalkameen, possibly kamloops seat.

Projection is NDP 43- liberals 41- independent 1 if Kamloops seat goes to NDP otherwise 42-42-1

STV will fail below 50%.

popular vote: NDP (42%) liberal (45%), green (8%), conservatives (4%), others (1%)

N.Beltov N.Beltov's picture

Elections are first and foremost a means to justify the current political and economic system. Those who can pay for it, drown the public space with their message. And not just during "elections". What a lot of myopic animal droppings, Stockholm.

Furthermore, there's always something people can do, if they're not limited by parliamentary cretinism. This message of yours is one of political capitulation - a message that serves the governing parties, whatever their political stripe, just fine - and could lead politically unsophisticated people ... not to bother to vote at all. Which is also just fine for governing parties.


"Elections are first and foremost a means to justify the current political and economic system."

So, in other words, when free elections don't give you the results you want - your response is to sulk and claim that elections are for the birds and that the only solution is to seize power at the end of the barrel of a gun?

remind remind's picture

Okay we need a new prediction thread then if people are not going to continue their predictions in the BC election discussion thread, as this one is getting way too long for dial up.

Continued here

stephen elliott... stephen elliott-buckley's picture


ndp: 44 seats

liberal: 38 seats

independent: 1 seat

conservatives: 2 seats

green: 0 seats

stv: yes 62%

- campbell loses to mel lehan