If you are Kathleen Wynne, what do you do?
You have been leader of the Ontario Liberals for 14 months and premier of the province for 13. For most of that time, you have been spinning your wheels. In the 2011 election, your party, then led by Dalton McGuinty, came within one seat of a majority in the 107-seat legislature. But resignations, retirements and byelection attrition have eroded your standing. Today, the Liberals hold 10 fewer seats than the combined opposition (48-58 with one vacancy).
If you are Kathleen Wynne, you know this. You know you may face an election this spring. You also know that, although your personal popularity is okay, your party’s numbers aren’t. According to the poll aggregator ThreeHundredEight.com, the weighted average of Ontario political polls, as of March 24, had the Liberals tied -- at 34 per cent -- with Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives; Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats were nipping at your heels with 26 per cent.
The experts say the Liberal vote is more “efficient” than the PC or NDP vote because of the concentration of support in seat-rich Toronto. If they are right, you might eke out another minority government -- if you are lucky.
You have survived for the past year by making nice to the NDP. You and Horwath agree on one thing: you don’t want Ontario to return to what you both regard as the dark ages of Mike Harris by making Hudak premier. (You may be right about the dark ages, but how do you persuade more Ontarians to buy into your Hudak aversion? Many voters see him as a friendly fellow, a good family man and new dad.)
So far, you have managed to secure Horwath’s support in exchange for a few shiny trinkets, such as a marginal reduction in car insurance rates or a minuscule increase in the minimum wage, but nothing very big or very costly. Nothing that engages the real issues and fundamental problems of the province.
Ontario is in a slump. The former engine of Confederation is running on just half of its cylinders. It needs growth and it needs skills jobs of the high-wage, high-tech variety, not the part-time, minimum-wage kind. It needs real jobs, real careers, for university graduates.
To get there, Ontario needs renewed leadership, leadership with a vision for the future. It is not likely to get that vision from Hudak as long as he looks back to the Harris era for inspiration. Nor does Horwath project a sense of bold leadership; she seems too pre-occupied with jockeying for position in the next election.
A year ago, I would have said Kathleen Wynne could provide the leadership Ontario needs. I’m not so sure now. The battle for survival has taken its toll. Her government is still struggling to eliminate its deficit by 2018, leaving the province about three years behind better-heeled Ottawa in that important effort.
She has been unable to escape from the nightmares of the McGuinty past. The hydro plant outrage occurred on his watch, not hers, but last week’s news that the police are investigating the scrubbing of computer files in the premier’s office during transition from McGuinty to Wynne moves the scandal dangerously close to her doorstep.
And all Ontarians had a right to be appalled when the annual “sunshine list” of top earners in the provincial employ was published last week. The public could see how province-owned outfits, especially in the energy sector, have been hiring mediocre executives, paying them far more than they are worth in salaries and bonuses, then handing them severance packages in the six- and even seven-figure range when they fire them.
That largesse is not corruption. It is simple bad management. Ontarians don’t expect miracles (or even excitement) from Queen’s Park. But they do expect their affairs to be competently managed with proper respect for the taxpayer dollar. Can Kathleen Wynne instill that image of competence and fiscal respect at Queen’s Park?
Cambridge resident Geoffrey Stevens, an author and former Ottawa columnist and managing editor of the Globe and Mail, teaches political science at Wilfrid Laurier University and the University of Guelph. His column appears weekly in Waterloo Region Record and Guelph Mercury. He welcomes comments at [email protected]
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