Defeating Harper is not impossible, but if and only if opposition parties work together. It is as simple as that.

Ignatieff’s Liberals are refusing any deal. This will be extremely useful to Harper in Ontario and B.C. and even some places in Quebec.

What about the NDP and the Bloc? If one looks carefully at the electoral map in Quebec, it can be mutually beneficial. In addition if you look at their respective party platforms, it converges on many issues.

In the Quebec-Appalaches region where Harper retains his stronghold, the Bloc is the only opposition. In some of the 7 ridings (8 counting one detained by a pro-Harperite “independent”), the difference between the Conservatives and the Bloc is tiny. Any vote transfer from the NDP could mean the Bloc slipping in.

In some of the ridings held in Montreal by the Bloc, NDP support could secure the re-election of the Bloc, like progressive MP Maria Mourani (Ahuntsic). The NDP also has no chance there.

In exchange, the NDP could ask for the support of the Bloc in two ridings: in Outremont where Thomas Mulcair is trying to be re-elected and is facing a tough battle with the Liberals and the Conservatives. And in Hull-Aylmer where the Bloc could support PSAC ex-president and NDP candidate Nycole Turmel who has a chance against the incumbent Liberal.

All of this is really possible and does not necessitate two years of negotiations. It would be a win-win for both Bloc and NDP and a symbolic but important defeat mostly for Harper.

So why is it not done?

The NDP is still chasing the wild goat of becoming a “national” party. It’s a bad choice that came close to be defeat, when Jack was elected the leader of the party back in 2003. I remember meeting him with Judy Rebick and suggesting it was time to talk with the Bloc and more generally deal with Quebec nationalists. He seemed to agree, but then his “spins” came into the picture. As it is known, “spins” are these wise guys who know (or think they know) how to win an election. They are usually very good tacticians (the short term) but often bad strategists (the long term). For Jack’s spins, dealing with the “devil” would lose votes for the NDP in Western Canada. Still today, the choice is there: rethinking the strategy and rebuilding a left alliance, or getting (relatively) more votes in certain regions and on the short term. In the meantime despite all the bla bla, the NDP will be very lucky if they retain Thomas Mulcair as the MP for Outremont. As for the rest of the province apart from Aylmer (with lots of luck), forget it. Not just for this election.

The Bloc must share a part of the responsibility as well. It wants to monopolize the Quebec vote, especially the left-of-centre vote. They feel they don’t really need the NDP and partly or at least in the short term, it is true that they don’t need them. However, what about the long term? Any drive from the Bloc and its PQ friends to promote the sovereignty project needs to confront the fact that they need to break the wall of hostility in Anglo Canada. Otherwise not only will the federal government be able to play the same dirty tricks as it did in the last two referendums (1980 and 1995), but this will create an atmosphere of fear that will benefit the status quo. It is to the advantage of the nationalists, rationally speaking, to have a stronger NDP able to listen to the facts. Of course one will say, “What is rational about politics????”

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Pierre Beaudet

Pierre was active in international solidarity and social movements in Quebec, and was the founder of Quebec NGO Alternatives, and Editor of the Nouveaux cahiers du socialisme. He blogged on rabble.ca in...