The real business of government is to win the next election. You do not have to channel Machiavelli to understand that prime ministers weigh the impact of government decisions by looking ahead to how what ministers do today will affect the next campaign. As the Canadian Press reported this week, the Conservatives have imposed an elaborate scheme to manage public opinion.

In Ottawa, where a summer parliamentary recess is anticipated, and a fall election is expected (the most recent one was in October 2008), speculation, a civic pass time, turns around how Stephen Harper will find a way to request an election of the new governor-general (the one he gets to pick). What issues will he choose to make his own? Where has he left himself most open to opposition attack?

Though people have reason to believe current political manoeuvres are all about being ready for the next election, politics is never quite what it appears to be. For party insiders, the election results are pretty clear at this point. The Conservatives are not strong enough to win a majority, and the Liberals are too weak to displace them as the party with the most seats. This scenario leads to two other plays. Post-election, Stephen Harper will come under pressure from his own party to step down in favour of a more likable figure who can lead the Conservatives into majority territory; and Michael Ignatieff will be forced out as Liberal leader.

Current political manoeuvres take on a different character when seen as part of post-election strategy. The two leading pretenders to Harper’s seat are Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, and Environment Minister Jim Prentice. Flaherty is doing his best to be the Bay Street boy. He is pushing ahead with a national securities regulator, against the wishes of Quebec, because Bay Street wants it. He bills himself as the slayer of the Global Bank Tax opposed by Canadian Bank CEOs. Flaherty is even moving strongly on a Harmonized Sales Tax for Ontario and B.C., knowing that big money prefers consumption taxes (we pay) to wealth taxes (they pay). By securing support from Bay Street, Flaherty gets the money he needs for a leadership race. He is trying to position himself as the Ontario-friendly leader best prepared to lead his party to a majority victory by taking seats from the Liberals.

Jim Prentice has got a tough hand to play. Imagine being from Calgary, and trying to look like the environment minister, while defending the Alberta tar sands (with a green paint can, and a small brush). He does have the advantage of being from the West, where the Conservatives are strong, and speaking French. Prentice will have trouble impersonating a populist, but unlike Flaherty, he can distance himself from Bay Street ties, which are the kiss of death in much of Canada. Unlike Harper, Prentice has a likability quotient that registers above zero, giving him the potential to build support outside western Canada.

Harper sees his future as linked to that of Ignatieff. If Harper can destroy the Liberal leader, he can improve his own career prospects by winning a majority. Current Conservative messaging is aimed at burying the perception that a Liberal-NDP coalition would be a workable alternative to a Conservative minority. By demonizing the coalition idea, Harper expects to scoop up anti-NDP Liberal votes for Conservative candidates.

The Liberals have yet to decide that the real business of the opposition is to defeat the government. The Liberal leader prefers to bide his time, waiting for the Conservatives to make a big mistake. This has not stopped him, and his party, from losing ground.