South Ossetia, Georgia and repercussions - Part 13

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Fidel

quote:


Originally posted by Erik Redburn:
[b]I wonder if Moscow used the old "sphere of influence" justification when they ordered the invasion of Hungary and Czechoslovakia?[/b]

The Soviets always maintained that the western front was to prevent another barbarossa. Russia did have the body count from WW II to justifty it. The west never contested it. In fact, a recent study of Soviet and CIA archives by Stanford professor Charles Gatti indicates that the Soviets would rather have created a politcally neutral layer of countries(as was negotiated for Austria, Switzerland etc) to the west. What they wouldn't tolerate were NATO occupied Czechoslovakia or Hungary on Soviet borders. The old Soviet Union represented about a third of world countries, and they were not interested in aggressive expansionism NATO style. There is no real evidence for it, not even in Stalin's time.

Even today, the U.S. and Britain seek to expand their "sphere of influence" and competing with "French-German" expansionism into the Balkans, Africa, and Eastern Europe. Ukrainians, realizing that they will never be considered part of the west, are likely to seek new-old partnerships in the slavic sphere, like Canada and the U.S. would normally if we free and fair trade was possible between our two countries. It's always been a lopsided one for us though. Russia has always wanted to trade fairly with the west. British and American and Dutch energy conglomerates and capitalists have been quite ruthless and unfair in their business practices around the world and often relying on military to enforce the rules in their favour. Here is what Richard Cook, a former U.S. federal government analyst, said in a short essay, [url=http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10191]Has the West Reached Its Limits?[/url]:

quote:

Today, Putin is cleaning out the remaining gangster class. His efforts reached a milestone in January with the arrest in Moscow of Semion Mogilevich, called “the world’s most dangerous man.”

Putin has declared that the world will not be governed in a “unipolar” manner; i.e. by the U.S. military as the police force for the global financiers. This does not mean Russia has to be our enemy. In fact the world would be much better off, and much safer, if we joined with Russia as allies in keeping the peace.

But to do that our system would have to change, because finance capitalism is far too unstable to coexist with other nations as equals. [b]It must either grow or die, because it always needs new victims to pay the interest on its usury practices and to finance its speculative balloons.[/b] As a last resort, it needs the kind of financial institution bailouts being engineered by Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson, where the only remaining stopgap is borrowing from public funds and adding to the national debt.

Once economic growth stops, as has now happened, and all the bubbles to restart it have blown up, as has also happened, the end really is nigh. Especially if the host—the U.S. —is bankrupt.


N.Beltov N.Beltov's picture

[url=http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSLD12378020080914?sp=true]Reut... Saakashvili planned South Ossetia invasion - ex Minister.[/url]

The Georgian militarist regime really looks like it is toast. There is even discussion of regime change, not by the Russians, who were wise enough to withdraw and leave that to Georgians themselves, but by the puppet masters in Washington.

quote:

Irakly Okruashvili, Georgia's leading political exile, said in a weekend interview in Paris that the United States was partly to blame for the war, having failed to check the ambitions of what he called a man with democratic failings.

Saakashvili's days as president were now numbered, he said.

The former defence minister's remarks are significant because Saakashvili has always maintained Russia started the war by invading his country. The Georgian president said he handed EU leaders last week "very strong proof" that Moscow was to blame, though he did not give details.

But Okruashvili, a close Saakashvili ally who served as defence minister from 2004 to 2006, said he and the president worked together on military plans to invade South Ossetia and a second breakaway region on the Black Sea coast, Abkhazia.


N.Beltov N.Beltov's picture

Plenty of developments to mention, including the head of NATO dragging around representatives of the member countries to Tbilisi and Stalin's birthplace in Gori. Who knew that NATO would honour "Uncle Joe"? Good grief.

Games are being played around the question of peacekeepers, the Head of NATO has blathered about the lousy deal that Sarcozy arranged with the Russians, the Anglosphere NATO countries are carrying out all sorts of peevish, Harper-like actions (the Brits, if you please, prevented the bagpipers from playing in Moscow!), and so on.

Anyway, the following is an excellent read.

It turns out that the Americans are trying to spitefully prevent the victims, and intended victims, of the Georgians in South Ossetia and Abkhazia from being present at the UN Security Council when their own fate is being discussed. However, the Russians have made it clear that they will not budge on this issue and so the Yanks are faced with the prospect of issuing the appropriate visas or losing the sources of information in the conflict areas from the UN/other observers.

The Americans are getting slapped around. I must admit that I find it highly amusing and I can't help but think that zillions of other people smiliingly agree with me. Enjoy.

[url=http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080912/116750516.html]Ossetian-Abkhazian zugzwang: a game for Grand Masters[/url]

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

[url=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4765539.ece]Uk... government collapses over Georgia war[/url]

quote:

Ukraine was plunged into fresh political turmoil yesterday when its pro-Western Government collapsed, amid recriminations over Russia’s invasion of Georgia.

President Yushchenko accused Russia of trying to destabilise the country after the collapse of the coalition Government between his party, Our Ukraine, and the faction headed by the Prime Minister, Yuliya Tymoshenko. “I will not be an idealist who says that there are not intentions to cause internal instability in this or that region of Ukraine. Without a doubt, such scenarios exist,” Mr Yushchenko said. “For some of our partners instability in Ukraine is like bread with butter.”...

The Speaker of Ukraine’s parliament, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, dissolved the coalition formally yesterday, ending hopes that the two sides could patch up their differences after Our Ukraine pulled out ten days ago. He said the parties had 30 days to build a new majority in parliament or face elections, only a year after Ukraine last went to the polls. “I would not call this an apocalypse. It is a challenge for democracy, but I hope we will overcome this challenge together,” he said.

The crisis has exposed deep fissures within the pro-Western forces who came to power after the 2004 revolution, as the rival leaders jockey for an advantage before presidential elections expected late next year. The divisions could open the way for the pro-Russian Party of Regions, led by their bitter rival Viktor Yanukovych, to return to power and tilt Ukraine towards Moscow once again....

[b]Last month’s war in Georgia sparked a sharp increase in tensions after aides to Mr Yushchenko accused Mrs Tymoshenko of “high treason” for not condemning the Kremlin.[/b] Mr Yushchenko openly backed Georgia and infuriated Moscow by limiting the movement of the Black Sea Fleet during the conflict.


N.Beltov N.Beltov's picture

The Ukrainian pro-NATO coalition falling apart is the other shoe dropping. And it's a very loud thud. Two major Russophobic NATO moves, for Georgia and the Ukraine to join that organization as full members, are in a shambles. However, the neocons don't give up that easily ...

[url=http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080917/116887622.html]U.S. could use Georgia as a bridgehead to attack Iran[/url]

quote:

The U.S. military could have plans to use Georgian air bases to launch air strikes against Iran, according to Russia’s envoy to NATO Dmitry Rogozin.

He said [b]that’s the reason why bases in Georgia damaged during the conflict with Russia are being rapidly rebuilt.[/b]

Rogozin said if a U.S. military operation against Iran goes ahead, he would have “pity for Georgia, because Iran is certain to defend itself.”

Rogozin called for the U.S. to support Russia's effort to engage Iran in international dialogue. According to him, threatening and pressuring Iran only "gives Teheran more arguments in favour of building some sort of weapons of mass destruction".

Iran has been in a state of diplomatic conflict with leading world powers over its nuclear programme. The state government argues that it needs enriched uranium for the peaceful generation of electricity. However, Western analysts argue that the program is geared toward weapon production.


[url=http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/30579]U.S. may use Georgian bases to strike at Iran[/url]

N.Beltov N.Beltov's picture

Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik has written a summary of the military sequence of events in the South Ossetian 5-day war.

quote:

Open hostilities in the vicinity of Tskhinval, the capital of South Ossetia, began in the small hours of August 8, when Georgian artillery struck at the city and the Russian peacekeepers' positions in it. Georgian peacekeepers participated in the attack as well, having turned their arms against their Russian allies.

The first strike hit a 220-strong peacekeeping battalion under the command of Lieutenant Colonel Konstantin Timerman. It was his men's tenacity that helped repulse the first assault, which had a decisive influence on the ensuing events: Georgia failed to seize the city right away and make the world face an accomplished fact.

It was during that night (or rather early in the morning) that Russia's war machine began responding to events, and news came of Russian fighter jets seen above the Georgian forces' position. The air strikes performed by Su-25 fighters and Su-24 bombers also played an important role in repulsing the first attack on Tskhinval.

On the afternoon of August 8, the first Russian units entered South Ossetia (135th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division) to defend local residents and reinforce peacekeeping forces, but it was not until August 9 that they actually reached the besieged peacekeepers.

Battles in local villages were mainly fought by local militia and volunteer units, while Russian troops interfered only if they had to take on large Georgian army units, for which the militia was no match.

Russian forces also undertook the mission of suppressing Georgian artillery, while the Russian air force struck Georgian rear infrastructure.

Russian special units also took on a Georgian task force. There is information that their successful operation prevented Georgian commandos from blowing up the Roki Tunnel, a mountain pass on the Caucasus Main Motorway. If blocked, it could have seriously hampered the operation because alternative routes lack sufficient traffic capacity.

The fighting in and around Tskhinval went on for three full days, and by the end of the third day Georgia's artillery was mostly destroyed, and what was left of it retreated. Georgian ground forces left the city, too.

It is important that throughout the operation, the Russian army was restricted by a series of political commitments, which prevented it from using heavy weapons in populated areas, and it greatly limited its counter-fire activities.

Russian aircraft continued strikes on Georgia's military infrastructure until August 12, making it impossible for its armed forces to carry on fighting.

Russia's navy also took part in the operation - a group of Black Sea Fleet warships patrolled the coasts of Abkhazia and Georgia. The group included the fleet's main ships, including the Moskva cruiser, three frigates, two small submarine chasers, small missile carrier Mirage, four guided-missile boats, a communications ship, and a marines group including landing ships Saratov and Tsezar Kunikov, and a troop ship, General Ryabikov, which carried two marine battalions.

The marines eventually landed in Abkhazia thus expanding the operation area. The reconnaissance units of the marines and the 7th Air Assault Division marched all the way to Poti and seized important Georgian military cargo and burned Georgian naval boats.

Much is unclear in this marine episode of the Russian-Georgian war. On August 11, we heard the news that Russian warships had sunk a Georgian missile boat, the Tbilisi. Later it turned out that the Tbilisi had been burned in Poti by Russian marines. Since the remaining boats retreated to Batumi, it was impossible to find out which of them was destroyed, if any, in the fight with the Russian navy. There are some reports that Georgia lost two ships.

By August 11, the Georgian army was no longer an organized force, as the footage of its ignominious retreat from South Ossetia, Gori and other areas was shown around the globe. Its units fled south, mostly to Tbilisi, leaving their weaponry behind, while Russian forces along with Abkhazian and South Ossetian units carried the hostilities on to Georgia's own territory, seizing the abandoned equipment and destroying what remained of the country's military infrastructure.

On August 12, President Dmitry Medvedev announced the completion of the operation.


The author then critiques the military actions of the two sides ...

quote:

The five-day war exposed the Russian army's strong and weak points. Its strengths included a fast start, the methodical and consistent tactics they used to suppress Georgia's artillery and rear infrastructure and a successful anti-sabotage operation. All that credits the high qualifications of Russian command and headquarters staff.

As for their weaknesses, they failed to completely suppress Georgia's air defense units and air force. They also lacked cutting-edge equipment and used obsolete communications systems.

Some of these faults were recognized by the military leaders. Colonel General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, who was the army press spokesman during the conflict, admitted the loss of a Tu-22MR jet due to imperfect combat training of the air force.

Casualties are estimated differently on both sides. Russia reported 71 killed and 19 missing and four aircraft shot down. It also said it lost several dozen combat machines, including 10-15 tanks.

The Georgian Defense Ministry reports less than 300 Georgian soldiers killed, although other sources have more realistic figures, 1,000-1,500. Several Georgian battalions were destroyed entirely.

It is hard to estimate Georgia's loss of equipment. According to various estimates, around 50 machines were destroyed in combat, including 20 tanks, and about 100 (65 tanks) were seized by Russian forces after the Georgian army retreated.

The Russian force was not significantly superior to Georgia's; Georgia even had the advantage of fighting on its own familiar grounds.

This leads us to a conclusion that Russia has won a decisive victory, defeating the aggressor's army, and destroying or seizing a great number of military equipment. The victory guarantees Abkhazia and South Ossetia against further attempts at forceful annexation for a substantial period of time, unless the Georgian leadership rushes into another senseless adventure.


And, as for the political significance of the conflict ...

quote:

The main political outcome of the war apart from the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent countries on August 26 was a split in NATO, where the United States, Britain and Eastern Europe became opposed to Western Europe. The former group insisted on all-out support of Georgia, while the latter voiced understanding of Russia's position in this conflict and dismissed the idea of imposing sanctions as counterproductive....

Incidentally, as time passes, western assessments of the five-day war, which is now history, grow more weighted and objective. A unified anti-Russian bloc never formed here, except perhaps Poland and the Baltic nations with their strong dislike of Russia and Ukraine, which joined the club with U.S. support.

[b]The outcome of the war can be expressed in a few short words: The world is changing rapidly. Russia's self-assertion as one of the key players on the international arena, combined with snowballing global financial crisis and a revision of many liberal values we inherited from the 1990s, suggests that we are witnessing a turn in history with global consequences. We are being swept by the winds of change.[/b]


[url=http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080918/116938018.html]Ilya Kramnik at Novosti - "The world is changing."[/url]

[ 20 September 2008: Message edited by: N.Beltov ]

Webgear

Can you provide a link?

N.Beltov N.Beltov's picture

Done. The link should be there now.

By the way, here is a link to a whole range of Russian news sources in English. They cover a great range of political views.

[url=http://www.world-newspapers.com/russia.html]Russian Newspapers and News Sites[/url]

The Russian equivalent of [i]Foreign Affairs[/i] is [i]Russia in Global Affairs[/i] and its next issue should be a dandy.

Webgear

quote:


The five-day war exposed the Russian army's strong and weak points. Its strengths included a fast start, the methodical and consistent tactics they used to suppress Georgia's artillery and rear infrastructure and a successful anti-sabotage operation. All that credits the high qualifications of Russian command and headquarters staff.

As for their weaknesses, they failed to completely suppress Georgia's air defense units and air force. They also lacked cutting-edge equipment and used obsolete communications systems.

Some of these faults were recognized by the military leaders. Colonel General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, who was the army press spokesman during the conflict, admitted the loss of a Tu-22MR jet due to imperfect combat training of the air force.

Casualties are estimated differently on both sides. Russia reported 71 killed and 19 missing and four aircraft shot down. It also said it lost several dozen combat machines, including 10-15 tanks.

The Georgian Defense Ministry reports less than 300 Georgian soldiers killed, although other sources have more realistic figures, 1,000-1,500. Several Georgian battalions were destroyed entirely.

It is hard to estimate Georgia's loss of equipment. According to various estimates, around 50 machines were destroyed in combat, including 20 tanks, and about 100 (65 tanks) were seized by Russian forces after the Georgian army retreated.

The Russian force was not significantly superior to Georgia's; Georgia even had the advantage of fighting on its own familiar grounds.

This leads us to a conclusion that Russia has won a decisive victory, defeating the aggressor's army, and destroying or seizing a great number of military equipment. The victory guarantees Abkhazia and South Ossetia against further attempts at forceful annexation for a substantial period of time, unless the Georgian leadership rushes into another senseless adventure.


Interesting details.

N.Beltov N.Beltov's picture

Yea, I thought you might be interested. I would just add that one important detail that Kramnik is missing is the question of morale.

The Georgian Army suffers from corruption and nepotism to an extreme degree, if some other reports are to be believed, and this had a strong effect on the result of the conflict. The humiliating retreat for Georgian soldiers from Stalin's birthplace of Gori, with tanks and pick-up trucks jockeying for position on the highway to Tbilisi, showed this bad morale. The Georgians were not willing to defend their own country and I have no reason to assume that Georgian soldiers are any more cowardly than soldiers anywhere else ... but, rather, that they were unwilling to risk their lives for such a corrupt regime as Saakashvili's.

Equipment is important, of course, but the greatest weapon of any soldier is the space between his ears. The Russians, on the other hand, in contrast to the Georgians, have a military tradition going back to Soviet times, defeating the hitherto undefeated armies of Nazi Germany and further back to conflicts in the mists of time against Napolean Bonaparte and Jenghis Khan. A half dozen or so Russian cities during WW2 were named "Hero Cities" from the conduct of the defenders of those cities who, in some cases, literally fought to the death to the last man. People who fight like that have to be inspired, I think. The Georgians were not inspired by Saakashvili at all, it seems, and abandoned their expensive equipment and booted it out of town to fight another day rather than face the angered Russian bear.

Webgear

[url=http://thedonovan.com/archives/oifrussian/OIFrussianLL12.pdf]Russian Federation Armed Forces on June 6, 2003: "Lessons and Conclusions from
the War in Iraq."[/url]

Strategic Lessons of the War for Russia

The main lesson is the complete dependency of all of the weapons (air- and sealaunched
cruise missiles, airplanes, helicopters, fire support, tanks, multiple rocket
launchers) on navigational support.

For the Russian Army we need to deploy our own space grouping with the naval, air
and ground components linked with it, which will be capable of providing navigation data
to the naval, air and ground elements, as well as to the nuclear deterrence weapons, as
well as navigation systems on the operational and tactical echelons.

There is now a need for substantiating and introducing into operation a new operational
support system -- a navigation system that at this time the Russian Army lacks.

The second lesson is the strategic significance of the VVS [Air Forces] as the most
important branch of the armed forces in modern day warfare. Only the coalition's
complete supremacy in the air allowed it to achieve a decisive superiority in forces in
any battle.

The third lesson is the importance of saturating the combat ranks with powerful
precision guided munitions, capable of destroying armored enemy targets at maximum
distances. A new tactical battlefield weapons complex is needed that is capable of
spotting the enemy at maximum range, day and night, that will destroy modern combat
tanks at average distances of 800-1000 meters, and will ensure the destruction of the
enemy's infantry with bullet and shrapnel at distances of 300 to 500 meters, despite its
having individual protective equipment.

The fourth lesson is the ever increasing importance of camouflage, concealment,
deception and secrecy as one of the main forms of combat support. Under conditions
whereby precision guided munitions are used, camouflage, concealment and deception
and adhering to a regime of secrecy will become a strategic mission of the defending
troops.

[i]Were these lessons applied to the South Ossetia and Georgia conflict?[/i]

[ 03 October 2008: Message edited by: Webgear ]

Webgear

[url=http://www.thestar.com/News/World/article/511606]S. Ossetia blames Georgia, Georgia blames Russia for bomb blast[/url]

TBILISI, Georgia–A car exploded killing seven soldiers outside Russia's military headquarters in South Ossetia today, and Russian authorities have charged it was a terrorist bombing meant to wreck the tense cease-fire that concluded their war with Georgia.

Georgia's Interior Ministry blamed Russia, accusing it of arranging the blast to provide a pretext for delaying next week's scheduled withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgian territory around South Ossetia and another Kremlin-backed separatist region, Abkhazia.

Fidel

quote:


Originally posted by Webgear:
[QB][url=http://www.thestar.com/News/World/article/511606]S. Ossetia blames Georgia, Georgia blames Russia for bomb blast[/url]

"The Georgian Interior Ministry put the blame on Russia. It charged that Russian intelligence services set off the blast to provide grounds for keeping Russian troops on Georgian territory"


[url=http://www.pww.org/article/articleview/13693/]NATO, an idea whose time has gone[/url]

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

quote:


It has been awkward for the Western establishment that Saakashvili actually began the serious conflict with a major and civilian-oriented bombardment and ground attack on Tskhinvali. The Russians didn't make the initiating move and can credibly claim to be responding to the Georgian attack. The U.S. establishment has handled this by: (1) ignoring the basic fact of Georgia's initiation; (2) ignoring the civilian-target orientation of that opening attack; (3) arguing that the Russians had provoked Georgia and deliberately sucked it into a major conflict. But none of these responses work. The first two dodge the issue completely and the third fails to explain why Saakashvili did such a seemingly self-destructive thing—and of course fails to consider the possibility that he either expected no Russian response or expected Western military support or was being used by the United States for its own ends. Whatever the answers, Georgia started the war, not Russia, and the West has had to evade and/or downplay that fact.

It is also interesting that the U.S. and EU have been completely unconcerned over Georgia's use of powerful and indiscriminate Grad missiles in the initial attack on what seems to have been strictly civilian sites in Tskinvali. In 1996 the Yugoslav Tribunal found the Croatian Serb leader Milan Martic guilty of war crimes for having used a similarly indiscriminate weapon in attacking Zagreb, a densely populated area, although he claimed to be aiming at the Ministry of Defense and Airport. But the Tribunal concluded that he was trying to terrorize the population (whereas prosecutor Carla Del Ponte found that while NATO also used cluster bombs, "There is no indication cluster bombs were used in such a fashion by NATO.") Martic was given a 35-year sentence for using cluster bombs. I think we can safely conclude that Saakashvili's use of cluster bombs will be treated like NATO's rather than Milan Martic's.


[url=http://www.zcommunications.org/zmag/viewArticle/18994]Edward S. Herman[/url]

It's Me D

[url=http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2008/10/20081022112929667756.ht... receives $4.5 Billion payment for attempted genocide[/url]

Attempted genocide in South Ossetia pays off to the tune of $4.5 Billion in aid to Georgia; genocide for fun and profit?

quote:

Georgia's Western backers, led by the United States and the European Union (EU), have pledged $4.5bn in funds to help Georgia recover after its August conflict with Russia.

quote:

Russian bombing raids in August hit mainly military targets, but Tbilisi also reported damage to civilian infrastructure and risks to its economic growth and investment.

And what about aid to the victims of the Georgian campaign of destruction in S Ossetia?

quote:

Dmitri Babich, an analyst from Russian Profile magazine, told Al Jazeera: "The only nation that has so far pledged to help South Ossetia is Russia.

[img]mad.gif" border="0[/img]

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

quote:


Newly available accounts by independent military observers of the beginning of the war between Georgia and Russia this summer call into question the longstanding Georgian assertion that it was acting defensively against separatist and Russian aggression.

Instead, the accounts suggest that Georgia’s inexperienced military attacked the isolated separatist capital of Tskhinvali on Aug. 7 with indiscriminate artillery and rocket fire, exposing civilians, Russian peacekeepers and unarmed monitors to harm....


[url=http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/world/europe/07georgia.html]NYT[/url]

BetterRed

quote:


Originally posted by It's Me D:
[b][url=http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2008/10/20081022112929667756.ht... receives $4.5 Billion payment for attempted genocide[/url]

Attempted genocide in South Ossetia pays off to the tune of $4.5 Billion in aid to Georgia; genocide for fun and profit?

[img]mad.gif" border="0[/img] [/b]


So no one but Russia really cares to help the Ossetians
The morally enlightened West reserve their outrage for Russia only while their wallets are open for the Georgian aggressors.

As opposed to huge showers of Western/UN aid to Kosovo separatists after 1999 pounding of Serbia.
The destruction of territorial integrity and its seeds were planted in 1999 at Ramboillet.
If you read these accords, you will see what I mean.

Fidel

Georgian Diplomat Said Georgia started war in South Ossetia

Quote:

Georgia's former ambassador to Russia Erosi Kitsmarishvili has accused his own country of starting the war in South Ossetia. His comments almost led to a fistfight between politicians.

"It was the Georgian government that launched the military action. It doesn’t matter whether it was provoked or not," he told the Georgian parliamentary commission analysing the August events. "As for the fact that Russia was prepared for it, Moscow was ready to perform the actions it did, because they were part of Russia’s overall plan. I am not saying Georgia is to blame for everything, because Russia was not an innocent lamb either." .  .

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