Conservative Cabinet Predictions

Now that PEI has a Cons elected and none from NFLD wouldn't he be an automatic choice given regional consideration are always a factor in cabinet make-ups.

She, actually. Gail Shea is the only Tory MP from PEI, a former provincial cabinet minister, and did I mention female? Seems like a no-brainer to me. Adam has her at Fisheries which is certainly a likely possibility. If Harper doesn't want to give her anything too hefty at first, he might give Fisheries to one of his B.C. MPs and start Shea off with something like ACOA.

I don't think we'll see a major shakeup but I expect Harper will do more than just replace the retiring/defeated ministers. He'll move some people around, clean out some of the deadwood and bring some new people in. There will be pressure on him to beef up the Ontario ranks in cabinet and this will give him an opportunity to show underperforming ministers like Oda and O'Connor the door. Peter Kent will get something reasonably high-profile as one of their newly-elected GTA MPs. Lisa Raitt will be in cabinet for sure. Harper probably needs another minister from southwestern Ontario to round things out - Dave Mackenzie seems a likely candidate. Guergis will probably get a full portfolio, especially if Oda gets the boot.

I've never heard of Daniel Petit. If he didn't make the cut last time I don't see why he would this time, and in any event, Stephen Blaney seems a more likely new Quebec face in the cabinet. I would not be surprised to see Bernier return to cabinet in something more low-profile like National Revenue or Labour. Blackburn seems to have stayed out of trouble in the first term, he'll probably get promoted to something heftier. Verner will get demoted. Cannon will get a promotion.

Ritz certainly deserves to be gone but Harper hates to admit mistakes. Ritz might survive for now but get culled at the next cabinet shuffle. Lynne Yelich seems like his most likely replacement. I agree that Ted Menzies seems like the most likely pick of the rural Alberta MPs and I would be shocked if James Moore didn't get a full portfolio. The departure of Emerson opens room for Moore and Harper may even add a minister from B.C. If Harper's looking for completely new faces (as in just elected this election) Shelley Glover seems like a possible future star for them. Aside from Shea, Glover, Raitt and Kent there don't seem to be a lot of obvious prospects among the "Class of 2008" but I'm sure babblers will let me know if I've overlooked anyone.

[ 15 October 2008: Message edited by: ghoris ]

This line-up ignores something Harper is all too well aware of.

The last parliament was "dysfunctional" in his eyes, even though the Bloc was often hostile, but the Bloc was semi-manageable because its mandate was only to vote for Quebec, so there was no unified group of MPs to the left of the Conservatives.

This parliament is even worse. The Bloc MPs were elected with a mandate to stop this "very-right-wing Harper government."

Harper must move to the centre. Not his first choice, but he can see what he has to do.

So the new cabinet will be a whole new look.

You heard it first here.

[ 15 October 2008: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

What will Peter Kent get?

Lonely, frustrated, and muzzled.

Bumping. Does it not strike anyone else as odd that with a Throne Speech expected within a month, there has been no talk of the new Cabinet?

I have a feeling Indian and Northern Affairs will either go to Leona Aglukkaq from Nunavut or Rod Bruinooge from Winnipeg South. I think it might be better public relations if the person who held this position was either aboriginal or from the north.

And I don't think anyone is going to be stupid enough to trust Bernier with anything ever again.

[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: genstrike ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by genstrike:
[b]And I don't think anyone is going to be stupid enough to trust Bernier with anything ever again.[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: genstrike ][/b]

---

Never underestimate the stupidity of Conservatives. Besides, the Tories only have a small Quebec caucus. If Bernier is not back soon, he'll be back later in a reshuffle.

quote:

---

Originally posted by ghoris:
[b]Does it not strike anyone else as odd that with a Throne Speech expected within a month, there has been no talk of the new Cabinet?[/b]

---

Watch for the unexpected:

Gerald Keddy

Rodney Weston or Keith Ashfield, both former provincial cabinet ministers in New Brunswick, both from urban ridings.

Any other moderates people can point to? Would Lisa Raitt qualify?

I'd bet on Raitt for a Cabinet Secretary post in industry.

She knocked off Turner, brought a riding back to the party, is female, photogenic and has a solid track record with the Toronto Port Authority.

That "solid track record" at the TPA is more corrupt and incompetent than the adscam affair.

quote:

---

Originally posted by skarredmunkey:
[b]Never underestimate the stupidity of Conservatives. Besides, the Tories only have a small Quebec caucus. If Bernier is not back soon, he'll be back later in a reshuffle.[/b]

---

I know they have a small Quebec caucus, but I think they have at least some people who haven't proven themselves to be more incompetent than Bernier, especially with Couillard's new book out with juicy details for anyone who cares.

I mean, sure, we on babble probably don't like any of the cabinet ministers, but Bernier's incompetence transcends political boundaries

[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: genstrike ]

I'd bet on Bob Dechert getting something. He's from Mississauga so boosts the GTA ranks, has been active in conservative politics for a long time and is an international trade lawyer so he could even wind up in the trade portfolio. if Cannon gets moved, Lisa Raitt could be good at transportation. I've read somewhere that Clement wants out of health and covets foreign affairs. He didn't screw up too badly in health and there aren't a lot of heavyweights who could move to foreign affairs so he may take it.

Great. Milhouse van Houten on the world stage.

It sounds like Jason Kenney is in line for a promotion - most likely Citizenship and Immigration. A lot of Tories feel he has done yeoman's service for the party doing outreach to various ethnic and cultural communities and it is now paying off big time. Of course, that would leave Harper with three full ministers from Calgary and one junior minister, and would pretty much spell the end of Diane Ablonczy getting anything more substantial. Rural Alberta might not like getting deprived of a seat at the cabinet table but the leading lights are all in Calgary and Edmonton. Bob Mills and Monte Solberg were really the only obvious cabinet choices from rural Alberta in the last Parliament, and Solberg almost didn't make it in.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Wilf Day:
[b]
This parliament is even worse. The Bloc MPs were elected with a mandate to stop this "very-right-wing Harper government."
[/b]

---

That doesn't mean they actually will. The dirty not-so-secret of the Bloc is that they pretty much agree with the Conservatives on what the federal government should be doing - that is, not much.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Adam T:
[b]
Saskatchewan
1.Palliser, Ray Boughen. The former mayor of Moose Jaw and now a school trustee. An education consultant who wrote a report on education for the then provincial NDP government.[/b]

---

Boughen's report was about educational governance and taxation, not about education per se. I do not believe he was an educator IIRC.

quote:

---

Originally posted by ghoris:
[b]
It sounds like Jason Kenney is in line for a promotion - most likely Citizenship and Immigration.[/b]

---

I wouldn't be completely shocked to see Kenney in Foreign Affairs. He's the smartest guy in caucus.

quote:

---

Watch for the unexpected:

Gerald Keddy

---

I can't even imagine it... Keddy is a consummate backbencher. I wonder if getting a small position in cabinet would help keep him afloat against the NDP in the next election? That might be the thinking but who knows what a little time in the spotlight would do for him; personally I think he'd embarrass himself if he stepped out of the shadows so maybe it'd be a good thing... for the NDP.

Any guesses on which urban Liberal MP from Toronto, Montreal and/or Vancouver Harper will recruit to cabinet this time?

quote:

---

Originally posted by aka Mycroft:
[b]Any guesses on which urban Liberal MP from Toronto, Montreal and/or Vancouver Harper will recruit to cabinet this time?[/b]

---

Doesn't really need to. While he was still shut out in Montreal (which is a big loss for them and I don't see him bringing back Fortier), the tories amde gains in teh Vancouver and Toronto areas.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Star Spangled Canadian:
[b]... I've read somewhere that Clement wants out of health and covets foreign affairs. He didn't screw up too badly in health....[/b]

---

uh, ever heard of listeriosis? 20 dead so far if i recall.

quote:

---

Originally posted by aka Mycroft:
[b]Any guesses on which urban Liberal MP from Toronto, Montreal and/or Vancouver Harper will recruit to cabinet this time?[/b]

---

Maurizio Bevilacqua.