Fidel,
The reasons why Afghans do what they do is called survival.
For over 7 years we have been fighting the Afghan war. Yet, every year has seen an increase in violence and an increase in the amount of ground captured by the Taliban. We are losing both the ground battle and the battle for the 'hearts and minds'.
Why?
Europeans (ethnically speaking, so as to include Canadians, Americans, Australians and New Zealanders - those who have troops fighting in Afghanistan) are going to see European troops as the 'good guys'. Afghans are going to see mujihadeen freedom (from foreign occupation) fighters as the 'good guys'.
Ignoring the argument from propaganda and taking the argument from human nature, it is basic human nature that, in order to fit the 'we are the good guys' paradigm, the Western media is going to report incidents where Afghan insurgents and suicide bombers killed fellow Afghans more than when ISAF and OEF soldiers kill Afghans.
Fidel, imagine that you are an Afghan and a friend or a family member tells you that your wife and children have just been killed by gun fire or by an explosion. Without being told who were responsible, wouldn't your immediate reaction be that it was the foreign 'white guys' with guns who did it?
Realigned, do you intend to live the rest of your life in Afghanistan? I'm guessing probably not. Most Afghans do, however, intend to live their lives in their home country.
The point I'm making is that the Afghan people know that when the foreign troops leave, the Taliban will still be there.
Here's why I believe the Taliban is going to win.
1. The Taliban are the only group I know who have a national vision of Afghanistan. The other groups are just war lords who are the lord of their feudal fiefdoms.
2. The Karzai government is corrupt. While they are enriching themselves, they are impoverishing the ANA and ANP, turning them into roving bands of armed bandits preying upon the Afghan people to survive and (in some cases, get rich) through breaking the laws and attacking the people they are supposed to defend.
3. The Afghan people fear, loathe and hate the Karzai government, the ANA and ANP (as described in 2, above). Guess what? We are supporting the Karzai government by propping it up and we are training the ANA and ANP. Whatever money we are sending, meant to shore up the Afghan economy (which we can easily afford to do in these times of economic crisis) is going into the pockets of the corrupt regime. Don't you just love to see our government give our tax dollars to such worthy causes? Wow! Hey Realigned, doesn't this just sound like a sure fire strategy for success?
The Taliban have 'nostalgia' in their favor. When they were in power, Afghans point out that the Taliban:
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4. Were/are not corrupt.
5. Virtually eradicated opium production, which today is causing social problems not only in Afghanistan, but also in Russia, China, Iran and Europe.
6. Save for sporradic fighting in the Northeast between Taliban government troops and Kyrgyz and Tajik war lord armies, Afghanistan was peaceful.
7. In the Taliban justice system, people can have grievances redressed often within 48 hours. Under the current government, if corrupt officials don't get bribes, you don't get justice.
As Unionist likes to point out:
When we're watching breaking news of the fall of Kabul to the Taliban, we are going to be treated to the spectacle of the last helicopter flying off the roof of the U.S. embassy. Hamid Karzai's arm and leg will be wrapped around the landing skid of the Huey. The hand of his dangling arm will be clutching a suitcase. Karzai's pockets and suitcase will be stuffed with Yanqui 'greenbacks'. 'Ben Franklins' will be fluttering out of his suitcase and pockets. The hands of the starving and impoverished Afghan people grasping for this money. People left behind, buffeted in the wake of the departing Hueys' wind turbulence.
WHY?