Upcoming Federal by-elections

West Coast Lefty wrote:

I heard some buzz that Hochelaga BQ MP Réal Ménard will be stepping down to run in the Montreal municipal election this fall. 

The NPD candidate in 2008 was Jean-Claude Rocheleau, one of the top stars. He came third with 14.4%, compared to the Liberal 20.7%, the Bloc 49.7%, and the Conservative 9.2%. The Conservative will fall even lower, but there's not much joy for the Liberals in the small number of votes available from that 9.2%. After Ignatieff turned his back on the Bloc, if Rocheleau runs again, could he overtake the Liberal?

West Coast Lefty wrote:

Any word on what Stéphane Dion will do? I would think he'd want to go back to teaching at this point.

He's stubborn beyond all predictions. He's come back from the dead once, and won one underdog leadership campaign. What will he do next?
But a by-election in Saint-Laurent-Cartierville would be interesting. The Bloc got only 11.3%, the NPD 9.0%. Could be wide open???

Meantime, it looks like Réal Ménard backed off the idea of running municipally, if I correctly understand the French idiom in this story from a few days later.

I like Ménard a lot too, WCL.  The two seats, Hochelaga and St-Laurent--Cartierville, make for two very good test-runs for the NDP in Montreal, I believe: one an east-end francophone seat in the top-ten of low-income ridings in the country with the second-highest percent tenants in 2006; the other a west-island seat in the top 10% of ethnically-diverse ridings and the highest proportion of Arab voters, still a very high rate of tenants, and again a very high percent of low-income residents.

The Bloc didn't have much vote to speak of in Dion's old riding, while the Conservatives didn't have much against Ménard.  The question is, with the incumbents gone, who can scoop up the Liberal vote in StL-C and the Bloc vote in Hochelaga.  Obviously the parties that hold the seats will try to run high-profile candidates to keep them.  I'm looking forward to seeing how things unfold, and I'm glad to hear the Hochelaga preparations are already well underway just in case.

West Coast Lefty wrote:

Following Dawn Black's resignation as MP from New Westminster-Coquitlam, now we get word that BQ MP Paul Crête is going to resign his seat and run in the provincial by-election to replace Mario Dumont as MNA from Rivière-du-Loup.  Crête is MP for Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup and won by a comfortable 7,000 votes in October 2008.  The riding should be a safe BQ hold, but it will be interesting to see how the CPC and LPC do in the race for 2nd place.  I don't think the NDP has much presence here.

So, the QC by-election should be a solid BQ hold, but Dawn Black's seat will likely be a tight 3-way race between NDP, Libs and Cons.  Are there any other rumoured resignations coming soon? I heard some buzz that Hochelaga BQ MP Réal Ménard will be stepping down to run in the Montreal municipal election this fall.  Any word on what Stéphane Dion will do? I would think he'd want to go back to teaching at this point.

 

The BQ will probably hold the seat, but the Liberals have an outside shot at it as they are on the rise in Quebec, including in Francophone Quebec.

Considering debator that the liberals are corinating the most "regressive supposed progressive" lib leader, outside shot is way off the mark.

Debater wrote:

...the Liberals are on the rise in Quebec, including in Francophone Quebec.

Moving up from the low teens among francophones was a real challenge there.

Well- I heard it here.

This is some strange. In the first place, there is no substantive or personal reason for Casey not to serve out his term.

He is a really honourable guy. Not to mention he doesn't need the money. I think it is SO unlikely it is a patronage appointment to get him out of the way

Maybe its some weird poke in the eye at Harper and to make Rodney look good, and 'strong', with the election coming up. But that sounds pretty far fetched.

If it was done with Harpers blessing it would be a combination kiss and make up for all the conservatives, make Rodney look good, etc. I can't see that there would be an advantage for the Cons in a by-election. The announced candidate for the Cons is Scott Armstrong who is loved by all sides among the scrappers in that family fight. Maybe it would be easiest for him to win in an orchestrated by-election love-in????

Even if it was something like that, calling a by-election here means they'd have to call it for New Westmisnster where the Cons will want to run out the clock and not have a by-election.

But maybe they've done this in case the general is not this Fall and there will have to be a by-election in New West. The time for Casey to make the shift would be now so Rodney can bask in the glow. And between Casey and the federal and provincial parties they EASILY have the resources to keep a de facto consitiency office running after it is officialy shut down... keep the constituents happy, lots of time for escort Scott around as the 'MP in waiting,' anooited by Saint Bill. Something like that.

I'm just winging it off the top of my head.

Good entertainment even if none of it turns out to reel... I mean true. Eh?

If the NDP wins the NS provincial election, could they parlay the momentum into make a major stab at winning North Nova? If they can do so well in Central Nova - why not in North Nova?

Since there may be a lot of talk about that riding over the next while - let's just refer to it from now on as CCMV.

Interesting, will we be hearing a press release from the EMay camp, or will she ignore it and hope for a federal election prior?

This appointment is a desperate move by a Premier who's looking at any means to boost his standing with Nova Scotia voters before having to call an election.

Rodney MacDonald thinks that by having Bill Casey as Nova Scotia's 'point man' in Ottawa, somehow some of Casey's good standing with the voters will rub off on the Premier.

The Conservatives will easily win this by-election, and if it forces Elizabeth May to become the Green candidate there instead of New Westminister, all the better for the NDP's chances to hold that seat.

Bring on the Nova Scotia election!

Just wondering!

If (when) Paul Crete resigns his seat to run provincially, would Mario Dumont try going federal and run for the Conservatives in that federal riding?

It's not a bad question David.  Why, you ask, Debater?  Perhaps because if it were a by-election and the Conservatives poured body and soul into it (or, in their case, a truckload of cash), and the hint was that Dumont would become a cabinet minister, that's something Dumont might not mind for awhile.  Then he could segue into a leadership bid when Harper steps down.  That should keep the seat for him.

The Libs did come in a strong second in the Haute Gaspesie riding, with Nancy Charest as their candidate.  That riding will be vacant in the next election, since the BQ member is stepping down.  Do you know if Charest will be running again there, Debater?

"Then he (Dumont) could segue into a leadership bid when Harper steps down."

Not a chance. There is no way that the Tories would give the slightest consideration to having Dumont as their federal leader. His English is quite poor, he supported the Yes side in the last referendum and he proved a total flop as opposition leader in Quebec. Enough said?

ottawaobserver wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

Since there may be a lot of talk about that riding over the next while - let's just refer to it from now on as CCMV.

I'll second that!

I don't know how much chatter there will be about C.C.M.V.

It contains 5 provincial seats, Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, Colchester North, Cumberland North, Cumberland South, and Truro-Bible Hill.  All of which have faithfully voted (provincially) Conservative since 1998.

 

No, Debater, it's for health reasons.  Give up the partisanship for a second, winning isn't everything.

Debater wrote:

If the Libs could come within 600 votes of taking it under Dion, it's likely they can take it under Igantieff.

Not generically.  It was a Nancy Charest vote more than it was a raw Liberal vote.

Debater wrote:

ottawaobserver wrote:

No, Debater, it's for health reasons.  Give up the partisanship for a second, winning isn't everything.

 ? ? ?  That's what this whole topic is about - who can win in what ridings  And aren't you normally quite partisan?

Anyway, are you saying you believe the health reasons?  That may be part of it, but I don't think it's the full story - he saw the results in October and can see what's likely to happen in the next election.

That's like David Emerson saying he was leaving for family reasons - everyone knew it was because he couldn't win in that riding as a Conservative.  He knew it would go Liberal or NDP and it ended up going NDP.  I think Mr. Roy has seen similar writing on the wall, and thus I think that contributed to the "health reasons"

And you draw this conclusion not even having read the story or knowing the man's age?  This may be the last time I even engage you on something this silly, but at my age and looking at the guy's photograph, it seemed quite plausible to me, particularly because he's saying so this early.  The Bloc may be many things, but scared of Liberals is not one of them.

I'm certainly partisan, but I'm not blind and I've lived a little.

If the BQ starts to fear losses in Quebec - they could decide to prop up harper for several YEARS.

Debater wrote:

Well the BQ is pretty much guaranteed to lose seats to the Liberals in the next election - it's just a question of how many and whether or not what they lose to the Liberals can be offset by what they can take away from the Conservatives.

"Pretty much guaranteed", eh?  The same way Paul Martin was pretty much guaranteed to win a 220-seat majority, or Stephen Harper was finished after the 2004 election?

Debater, NOTHING is guaranteed in electoral politics, and pretending otherwise doesn't help your reputation for insightful and considered political analysis on this board.

ottawaobserver wrote:

Debater wrote:

Well the BQ is pretty much guaranteed to lose seats to the Liberals in the next election - it's just a question of how many and whether or not what they lose to the Liberals can be offset by what they can take away from the Conservatives.

"Pretty much guaranteed", eh?  The same way Paul Martin was pretty much guaranteed to win a 220-seat majority, or Stephen Harper was finished after the 2004 election?

Debater, NOTHING is guaranteed in electoral politics, and pretending otherwise doesn't help your reputation for insightful and considered political analysis on this board.

I didn't say it was guaranteed - I  said it was "pretty much" guaranteed; I qualified what I said and am aware of how language works.  What my statement meant is that unless the Liberal vote drops significantly in Quebec before the next election, it is almost a sure thing that they will pick up new seats there.  I therefore provided for the possibility that the projection can change.

I'm not sure why you feel the need to always scold me and give me lessons on politics and the use of language.  You are not my mother.

KenS wrote:

Let alone nothing is guaranteed, or even 'sort of guaranteed'... as to what is even likely, looked at right now, with all the caveats that entails...

In Quebec the Cons are looking to have nowhere to go but down.

All the Bloc has to do is stay close to where they are and they stand to pick up a chunk of seats on that.

As always, the Liberal vote is so concentrated in Quebec [and even the francphone vote being somewhat that way] that big province wide gains, or even gains in the Montreal breakdown- that the lions share of those gains are in seats they already have. And in seats where they are close enough to the Bloc, Cons going down can lead to more gains for the Bloc than the Liberals.

Another factor is that a number of those seats where the Liberals are in range of the Bloc is that they had those seats and lost them. The several I can think of, losing them closely in 2006 turned into losing them by a much larger margin in 2008. That is largely because the incumbency factor kicks in, and while rolling that boulder uphill is not impossible... probabilities again, the odds are that predictions do not pan out for things like 'we don't have Dion holding us back anymore, and we were only 1,000 votes behind last time'.

Right now at least, it looks like the contingencies of the Liberals getting ANY seats [or more than 1 or 2] from the Bloc are MUCH greater, than is the likelihood the Bloc is going to pick up seats [and more of them] from the Cons.

The BQ support is actually not that entrenched in Quebec these days - it is a struggle for them just to get to 40%, and they only got 38% in October.  Their days of getting 49% of the vote and 54 seats seems to be over.

Incidentally, L. Ian MacDonald, who probably knows more about Quebec politics than any of us, recently wrote that the Liberals can win 30 seats in Quebec in the next election.  That's a little high IMO, but it shows how things are shifting.

KenS wrote:

Shows how much some people can spin stuff. Operative word is they could. If I tell Ian that $1,000 of his next paycheck rides on his prediction, do you think he'd say '50% probability for that 30 seat figure.

It isn't even guaranteed the sun will keep shining out of Iggy's orifices. And if it does, and a whole bunch of things also go right, yes, they might win 30 seats. Its a reasonable hope for them to entertain.

As to the BQ- the fact it is unlikely they are back to 49% of the vote and 54 seats means squat. Their vote is highly efficient in getting seats. As long as they stay even close to 38-40%, the Liberals can't make more than piddly gains. And unless the trend changes more than they usually do, the highest probability is that the Bloc is going to have at least enough seats to guarantee us AT LEAST another minority government.

You're right that the BQ vote is "efficient" if by efficient you mean they receive a very disproportionate number of seats relative to their popular vote!  As Ed Broadbent said a few years ago in his report on democratic reform, of all the parties, the BQ receives the most seats for the fewest votes under first past the post.

However, the "efficient" vote will only hold up for so long.  The Liberals are likely to make more than piddly gains in Quebec based on the current numbers.  The Liberals took 2 seats from the BQ in October when they were much lower in the popular vote, and almost won in half a dozen others.  The Libs can easily pick up 10 seats or more in Quebec based on their current numbers.  The next election for the BQ is likely to resemble 1997 or 2000 in which they lost a number of seats.

Another interesting thing to watch in Quebec down the road will be the issue of Duceppe himself.  Many people thought the last election would be his last - it now appears he plans to stay on for another.  But when he retires, the BQ vote may go down further.  Nanos research shows that many people vote BQ because of Duceppe and the BQ may lose voters when he leaves.  

Stockholm wrote:

"Nanos research shows that many people vote BQ because of Duceppe and the BQ may lose voters when he leaves."

...and their second choice tends to be the NDP.

It was up until recently - it is now beginning to increase for the Liberals again now that Ignatieff is there.  BQ voters clearly didn't like Dion.