The latest Ipsos Reid national poll has the Cons back in the lead nationally at 35% with the Libs down a bit at 33%. They have the NDP at 14%. The Cons are gaining in Ontario where they lead the Libs 39% to 37%. This is all within the MOE of course, but it's interesting that Harper has gained a bit even before the anti-Iggy ads reached their full force. The Cons are still in abysmal shape in Quebec (a new CROP poll has them 4th behind the NDP in QC) and I suspect they've written off any hope there unless Mario Dumont decides to run in the federal by-election in Paul Crete's old seat.
This tells me there's no election this June/July despite all the sabre-rattling on Parliament Hill. The BQ will likely blink or Iggy will find some way to cave in while saying how much he hates the Conservative agenda. The big picture is the economy - if things feel like they are starting to turn around, Ontario will swing back to the Cons and Iggy will be hooped.
Jack's best move is to keep the NDP focused on issues and getting results and let Iggy and Harper play the negative ad political games.