New and Improved Polling Thread with extra fibre!

131 posts / 0 new
Last post
Bookish Agrarian

Gary Doer is the next great hope of the NDP - really are you serious or just playing?

I'll be clear I didn't vote for Jack.  However, I am very comfortable with his leadership and I don't sense any great desire, despite your contention of great ranks of dissenting New Democrats, to drop Layton for some non-existent heir apparent.

Stockholm

I think that this "fiscal accountability" bogeyman is an old shibboleth from the 90s. Now its a non-issue - we have everyone from Harper to Gordon Campbell running up towering deficits and no one seems to give a hoot about it. I'm sure that Doer will soon announce a big deficit in Manitoba as well. Tommy Douglas balanced budgets in Saskatchewan for almost 20 years and when he became federal NDP leader the best he ever did was 17% of the vote and 22 seats.

I have nothing against Doer, but I think that in federal politics he would follow the path of people like George Drew and Robert Stanfield who were competent provincial premiers and then proved unable to make the transition to federal politics and bored everyone to tears. Even in Manitoba, the NDP already holds four out of the 5 or 6 remotely winnable seats - so there is little upside there. In any case, speaking no French nixes him right off the bat.

RedRover

Bookish Agrarian wrote:

Gary Doer is the next great hope of the NDP - really are you serious or just playing?

Is it the fact he's governed, or the fact he's had 10 balanced budgets in a row that makes Mr. Doer so unpalatable? 

Age is one thing going against him, and french another, but there is little else that would prevent 25 percent of Canadians from casting a vote for him.

 

Bookish Agrarian

I like Doer as well, but setting the federal scene on fire?  C'mon.

Stockholm

The main obstabcle that the NDP has exactly the same as the main obstacle that the very centrist Liberal Democrats have in the UK - its all about a perception of being a third party that cannot win and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you talk to people who are remotely in the NDP universe and you ask them why they don't vote NDP - the answer is almost always the same "because they are too small", "because they can't win".

Debater

ottawaobserver wrote:

Meantime, I think the Bloc have been showing every sign of getting ready for battle again.  I don't think Duceppe is terrified of Ignatieff, although he does seem to regard him with a healthy dose of wariness and is gearing up a bit of a negative campaign against him if you've checked out the Bloc's website lately...

I don't know if Duceppe is "terrified" of Ignatieff since that is a strong word to use, but I do think they are very worried about him.  I don't remember Duceppe ever writing an open letter in advance of an election attacking a Liberal leader before in quite the way he has gone after Ignatieff.  He fears something about him.

Bottom line for the BQ is that they are almost guaranteed to lose a number of seats to the Liberals in the next election.  The polls above show that the BQ has flatlined in QC since the last election whereas the Liberals are much higher than they were.

Time may also be on the Liberals' side in QC since it isn't just the next election that will be relevant in determining Quebec's political landscape, but the election after that.  Duceppe is not going to be leader forever and when he retires, the BQ may drop even farther in support in relation to the Liberals.

janfromthebruce

Debater not sure if there will be an election coming as you suggest. In the last election (less than a year ago, remember), the Bloc came back, thank goodness, and nixed Harper getting a majority govt. The libs tanked after again, a big build up with Dion as leader. If I remember correctly, when Martin won the leadership of the libs, it was big talk too, and look what happen to him.

I just can't buy into the huff and the puff of the Iggy tough guy routine and all the big build up. Watched this one before, so it's just that impressive.

You are right, Duceppe is not going to be leader forever. But considering that the Bloc voters would be more inclined to vote NDP vs. lib, it would be more likely that those "progressive voters" would be looking for a progressive party to vote for rather than the regressive liberal party. But that's my opinion.

peterjcassidy peterjcassidy's picture

[quote=Sean in Ottawa

 

People keep saying the NDP recovered to Broadbent numbers but that is not quite true. In Broadbent's day the NDP was flatlined in Quebec (except a few between election polls) and flatlined in Atlantic Canada. So when the NDP hit 18-19% in the 80s it was doing this based on Ontario to the west support. This support remains well below Broadbent days and the difference is covered up by the new support in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Similarly seat comparisons make no sense when you compare Broadbent seats from a 282 seat house with the current numbers.

The bad news is the NDP has lost critical mass in several pockets of the country that could deliver seats efficiently. The good news is the party has a much broader base with a presence across the country. Significant effort needs to be placed in regaining the levels of support that existed in the 80s in those strong pockets and expanding on the bridges of support th

[/quote]

The math shows the NDP % pf seats won has increased basically exponentially while the % pf votes has gronw arithmetically. (Did I say that right?) For exampelwe have almost doubled our set coudnt from 2004 wihout doubling our vote-and almsot tripled   our seat count from 2000 wihout tripling our vote. Presumably we are not only getting a samll gain in % of vote, but capturing that vote more efficiently.  We are better resourced thanks to Chretiens public finance generosity and there have been 3  elections in 5 years on the same redistreibuted ridimgs We know where the battles and are able to run clsoe to a 308 seat strategy  while concentratingh reosurces on possible/desireable pick ups.

My guess is we will do very well in any lection with national TV ads,national presence, a clsoe to 3-8 street strategy and giving serious assiatance to maybe 50 non incumbent redidngs. And we are going for power/.

 

GO JACK GO!!!

 

ottawaobserver

Quote:

Bottom line for the BQ is that they are almost guaranteed to lose a number of seats to the Liberals in the next election.  The polls above show that the BQ has flatlined in QC since the last election whereas the Liberals are much higher than they were.

[Emphasis mine.]  These are two phrases that are *almost guaranteed* to drive me crazy.  NOTHING is guaranteed in politics except that amateur pundits will be right about as often as stopped clocks.  Polls NEVER show things, they simply measure things imperfectly.

Before the last election the Bloc were almost guaranteed to lose a number of seats, and the polls showed that the Conservatives were on their way to a majority through rural Quebec.  Need I say more.

adma

janfromthebruce wrote:
But considering that the Bloc voters would be more inclined to vote NDP vs. lib, it would be more likely that those "progressive voters" would be looking for a progressive party to vote for rather than the regressive liberal party.

Then why did Bloc seats swing to the even more "regressive" Conservative party in 2006?  Remember that the BQ isn't simply a catchbasin for "progressive" voters--maybe in Hochelaga/Laurier/Rosemont, but not necessarily elsewhere...

ottawaobserver

Jan's probably thinking of the Nanos poll that found 70% of Blocc voters would vote NDP if the Bloc were no longer running.  But, you're right, the Conservatives did pick up seats in the traditional areas of the old Union Nationale vote, some of whom would have since switched to the Bloc (probably many of the same folks who later switched to the ADQ).

janfromthebruce

That's right OO - and why the NDP would do better in Quebec if the Bloc faded from view. And yes, I am aware that bloc voters switch to conservative and so on or ADQ. It reminds me of Sask where a populist type voting individual is more apt to vote for another populist type party type than a federalist one. Reform comes to mind here.

Debater

There is no evidence that Bloc voters will switch en masse to the NDP - there is very little historical relationship between Quebec voters and the NDP.  The BQ voters will go in different directions to different parties, but the largest number of them are likely to go Liberal based on historical patterns and current trends.

Since the fall election, the majority of support has come to the Liberals and so the results of that old Nanos poll do not appear to be borne out so far.

Stockholm

Since the Fall election BQ support has barely budged, all that has happened has been a Liberal rise accompanied by a Tory collapse in Quebec.

Debater

BQ support is down several points in many polls.  The BQ got 38% on Oct 14th.  They have been down in the low 30's in a number of polls.

ottawaobserver

Debater wrote:

There is no evidence that Bloc voters will switch en masse to the NDP - there is very little historical relationship between Quebec voters and the NDP. 

Well, you're right on the first part, because the question Nik Nanos actually asked is who people would vote for IF THE BLOC WEREN'T RUNNING, not who was the second choice of Bloc supporters.

As to the second part, politics is about making history.  That's what Stephen Harper tried to do, and it worked for an election.  Iggy is trying the same thing.  Layton apparently has a 10-year plan for Québec.  Passive punditry assumes things will always be the way they've always been, but political leadership tries to find the path to change history.

madmax

Status Quo

Quote:
Conservatives have  either trailed or been statistically tied with the opposition Liberals for months. "Ignatieff can't take it to the next level, but the Conservatives can't seem to get out of the ditch they're in," Donolo said

However in Quebec...

Quote:

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois holds a narrow but statistically insignificant lead over the Liberals, with 37 per cent support compared to 35 per cent for the Grits. Both parties dropped two points in support from the May poll.

The Conservatives are unchanged at nine per cent. The NDP lost a point, dropping to eight per cent, while the Greens gained three points, rising to 11 points in support.


However in Ontario.....

 

Quote:

In Ontario, the Tories have regained some ground, with their support rising to 35 per cent from 32 per cent in the May poll. However, they are still down from the 39 per cent support they enjoyed in the fall federal election.

The NDP have dropped five points in Ontario, falling to 10 per cent support, while the Greens remain at 11 per cent support.

"If the Liberals are going to have a chance to win the next election, they really need to shrink that NDP vote, particularly in Ontario," Donolo said.

 

f you believe these polls, the NDP has dropped below the Green Party in both Quebec and Ontario, yet is virtually unchanged in support Nationally. I do not know how a party can lose 5% of its support in the most populous province and

still have polling numbers unchanged across Canada. Let alone the drop in Quebec.

 

Something doesn't make sense. Either the Ontario Numbers are out to lunch, or the NDP is in freefall, and I consider a loss of 5% points a free fall. I cannot imagine NDP numbers dropping in Northern Ontario.

However there is reason to believe the LPC and CPC want to make Southern Ontario a 2 party race.

 

One thing I have consistently noticed about the NDP is that it polls low until it comes time to vote and then, not surprising, they maintain the same traditional vote they have had since their CCF days.

I believe the only exception is the 1993 disaster when the NDP fell to 6% nationwide.

 

Because this is a dead heat between the CPC and the LPC, there is no movement to a Liberal Sweep like occured in 1993. However, I expect the Liberals to put heavy resources into Ontario and make up the ground lost under the Dion Leadership.

 

I'd also say that the CPC have been stumbling and bumbling as of late and are leaving a sour taste in Ontario.

 

I doubt there is any election on the horizon and that the next election will be a marathon, not a sprint. That voter intent will move slowly and there will be some minor shifts away from the CPC in Ontario. But they will hold some newly won turf.

 

I believe the NDP has its work cut out for it in Ontario. They have connected with the North, but have yet to make strong connections across southern Ontario and in this economy, especially in Southern Ontario, you have to wonder why the NDP numbers aren't going through the roof.

It appear that voters are defaulting to the LPC or parking their vote elsewhere.

 

And today having read the Tories bash Toronto again, they have made it abundantly clear that they never want to win a seat in Toronto and are just that stupid.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ottawaobserver

Quote:

and I consider a loss of 5% points a free fall

Perhaps. It's also the margin of error for that sub-sample.

I agree the party has its work cut out for it, but I think we're also seeing the beginning of the end of the Iggy honeymoon, so let's see where we are in six months.

Debater

madmax wrote:

And today having read the Tories bash Toronto again, they have made it abundantly clear that they never want to win a seat in Toronto and are just that stupid.

 

 

You mean the John Baird f-word outburst? 

 

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090609/Baird_Toron...

madmax

New ways to make friends and win votes. Tell Toronto to F-OFF.

Yup that outburst.

Stockholm

"I do not know how a party can lose 5% of its support in the most populous province and

still have polling numbers unchanged across Canada. Let alone the drop in Quebec."

Its easy - the same poll showed NDP support up 7 points in western Canada and though they don't give a breakdown for Atlantic Canada - it stands to reason that support is up there as well what with the Nova Scotia election etc....

Debater

ottawaobserver wrote:

Quote:

Bottom line for the BQ is that they are almost guaranteed to lose a number of seats to the Liberals in the next election.  The polls above show that the BQ has flatlined in QC since the last election whereas the Liberals are much higher than they were.

[Emphasis mine.]  These are two phrases that are *almost guaranteed* to drive me crazy.  NOTHING is guaranteed in politics except that amateur pundits will be right about as often as stopped clocks.  Polls NEVER show things, they simply measure things imperfectly.

Yes, but I used the phrase almost guaranteed - not guaranteed.  I choose my words carefully to reflect the fact that most things are not guaranteed, however, there are times where the indications are strong enough to say that something is almost guaranteed.

For example, isn't it almost guaranteed that the NDP is going to win the Nova Scotia election tonight? Wink

Marg Bedore

Harris Decima Cons 31%/ Libs 35%/ NDP 15%/Bloc 10%/ Green 8%

Ontario Cons 31%/ Libs 42%/ NDP 14%/ Green 11%

905 Cons 27%/Libs 50%/NDP 11%

416  Cons 19%/Libs 52%/NDP 19% 

Noise

Madmax

Quote:

New ways to make friends and win votes. Tell Toronto to F-OFF.

 Heh, it'll make plenty of friends outside of Toronto though. Funny how telling the rest of canada to f-off plays well to the Toronto voters while turning the table and telling Toronto to f-off plays poorly to them.
Quote:

"I do not know how a party can lose 5% of its support in the most populous province and

still have polling numbers unchanged across Canada. Let alone the drop in Quebec."

Its easy - the same poll showed NDP support up 7 points in western Canada and though they don't give a breakdown for Atlantic Canada - it stands to reason that support is up there as well what with the Nova Scotia election etc....


NDP is surging in Alberta too and have surpased the Libs by quite a margin, theres a decent number of Con to NDP converts playing in there and we'll soon have the Liberal vote leach off to join who-ever the protest vote feels is most likely to counter the conservatives...I imagine we're part of that bump then.

Farmpunk

I agree with Madmax about the battle in Southern Ontario...  you know, everything that's not 905 or 416...  an election right now would be a nervous thing for many Con incumbents in my area.  A ripe time to have NDP candidates for the next election out and working. 

Far as I can see the NDP is not working in these ridings and is therefore not gaining fuck all right now.  

Iggy and Harper have been hopping all over SWOnt since January.  Harper had a Con party at Fanshawe College on March 13th.  That's Mathyssen's riding.  It was a 24 hour notice thing but as I understand Irene wasn't invited.  She did protest, but didn't get much backup from Layton.  Maybe he's given up on the south after about thirty people showed up to a very accessible town hall meeting in St Thomas in January.

Iggy was in London visiting the only Liberal left in the southwest, Glen Pearson.  

Iggy even toured some Essex county farmland.  Grudingly, by the look but he did the job. 

     

Peter3

Farmpunk wrote:

Far as I can see the NDP is not working in these ridings and is therefore not gaining fuck all right now.  

Iggy and Harper have been hopping all over SWOnt since January.  Harper had a Con party at Fanshawe College on March 13th.  That's Mathyssen's riding.  It was a 24 hour notice thing but as I understand Irene wasn't invited.  She did protest, but didn't get much backup from Layton.  Maybe he's given up on the south after about thirty people showed up to a very accessible town hall meeting in St Thomas in January.

Not sure what you're referring to.

Local news coverage of the St. Thomas event deviates somewhat from your characterization.

Nathan Cullen was back in St. Thomas (and Windsor) three weeks ago as part of the national Economic Recovery Task Force Tour.

Irene Mathyssen and her staff have been pretty actively engaged on a number of issues, most notably but not exclusively lending very public, concrete, ongoing support to a citizen's group fighting a SmartCentre/WalMart development proposed on land adjacent to the Meadowlily Woods Environmentally Sensitive Area in London. She's been getting decent, if not overwhelming media coverage.

Adam Atamanenko had successful events related to food security in Lambton, Kent and Essex Counties. The events were attended by a variety of food industry interests (commercial fishing, agricultural production, greenhouses) from accros the political divide.

Joe Comartin and Brian Masse have been very actively and visibly engaged with a bunch of regional issues related to border issues, especially related to transportation.

Factoring in the liklihood that significant federal resources were seconded to the Nova Scotia election campaign, I think the organizing effort in SW Ontario has been more than reasonable.

ottawaobserver

Layton also did a LOT of events in SW Ontario in January and February.  Check the itineraries of the two task forces through the NDP website.

NorthReport
NorthReport
Maysie Maysie's picture

Long thread.

Pages

Topic locked