So, Red Rover, basically your analysis boils down to reading the public domain horse race numbers now as predictive, and doesn't factor in any campaign effects, is that more or less right?
Not to be too argumentative, but just wondering if you considered that everyone had written off the Bloc before the last election, when in fact they adroitly campaigned their asses off and proved the pundits wrong.
You also seem to be assuming that there are no more moves left for anyone in the Commons after Ignatieff announces what he's going to do, which may be right, but may not be at all. Again, read Mulcair carefully: "There's nothing in this report to allow us to support the government". There isn't now. But, could there be?
I am reading Warren Kinsella as though he wants Ignatieff to go the polls now (or at least wants to sound like he does), so you may still be right, but I'm just trying to understand the rationale for your thinking more fully.
I'm starting to think that regardless of whether Ignatieff decides he wants to go to the polls, it's ultimately now Harper's decision. There is probably still a deal to be made if Harper decides he wants to do it. The thing is, all the other chess-players on the board have forked Iggy ... he loses something with either move, and then he still doesn't control the final outcome.