Summer Election, or Not

114 posts / 0 new

Topic locked

Sat, 2009-06-13 22:10

ottawaobserver

One issue no-one's dealt with is that the media can ill-afford to cover another election right now. You might actually see them boycott the planes, or just send pool reporters. Regardless of how much we love to hate certain players in that industry, the fact remains that the news budgets are strapped (although they'd probably like the ad revenue).

What kind of campaign will it be in that case? It's weird to consider. Already Christopher Waddell (former Globe editor, CBC editor and now Carleton U journalism prof) is writing in the academic book about the last election that the media should not pay to get on the planes anymore, because they're doing a terrible job of covering the issues in an election from there, and turning it all into numbers, tactics and the daily horse-race (which is true).

If people are rushed into a snap campaign, it might look quite different than what we've come to expect.

Sat, 2009-06-13 22:16

#103

Bookish Agrarian

That's something to consider. How would having to spend their summer vacations covering an election colour, even unconciously, coverage. Reporters are all human after all.

Sat, 2009-06-13 22:26

#104

Frmrsldr

What about coverage from independent media?

Sat, 2009-06-13 22:27

#105

ottawaobserver

Bookish Agrarian wrote:

That's something to consider. How would having to spend their summer vacations covering an election colour, even unconciously, coverage. Reporters are all human after all.

Well, you're also right on that one. In fact, I took John Ivison's last column to be a bit of a shot across the bow to anyone thinking of bringing it all down. I think you would really see some grumbling. And hardly any of them are unionized any more, so it's not like they would be pulling in big overtime cheques anymore either. Plus, with the web they are filing constantly ... it's exhausting and now they have to do it in several different media all at the same time (print, photog, audio and video). Quite the endurance test. Personally, I think they would like a summer off before starting it up all over again.

Sat, 2009-06-13 22:30

#106

ottawaobserver

Frmrsldr wrote:

What about coverage from independent media?

Good point ... the online Tyee did excellent online coverage of the last BC campaign. But if you don't get out of Ottawa or Vancouver to cover things, then you risk writing from the same bubble all the time. Of course Chris Waddell argues that the plane is a bubble too, and I think that's probably true. The national reporters need to travel on their own itineraries, I think, but there's very little budget for that anymore.

Sat, 2009-06-13 22:34

#107

KenS

I rather doubt Harper is actually keen to have an election. But I think that question is essentially moot:

The evidence is pretty strong that for the Cons an election now is at worst an acceptable outcome [presuming a combined Lib/NDP 155 seats remains out of reach]. They get to continue governing, and are organizationally and financially ready to do it again at any time, while another election without winning will have set the Liberals back on those scores... so that the Cons can just go on indefinitely forcing the agenda. As they are doing this very minute, despite being only months from a serious blunder that cost them dearly.

As long as another election is at least an acceptable outcome for them, the Cons can continue to drive the agenda. Which is why whether or not they are keen to have an election is moot.

Sat, 2009-06-13 23:10

#108

KenS

If the Liberals are divided on which way, and Iggy is spending the weekend mollifying and building a case for whichever side is to be disaspointed [which is my guess why the extension before announcing].... then it doesn't matter which way he/they go, nor that there is no infighting... the lack of Iggy driving the party does not bode well for them.

Being the High Priest of Huff and Puff will be mistaken by the faithful as leadership for only a limited time.

Sat, 2009-06-13 23:47

#109

Debater

KenS wrote:

The Liberals will never get a majority.

Aren't you breaking ottawaobserver's election rule of not predicting with certainty what might happen? You never know how things could turn out . . .

Sun, 2009-06-14 01:01

#110

RedRover

Election timing and anger at who forced is a myth.

It is not a vote-determinent for anyone.

It may dominate coverage for the first few days of a campaign, but it is has no influence on the outcome.

Liberals know this, so there would have to be a more compelling reason for them not to pull the plug.

Sun, 2009-06-14 01:21

#111

ottawaobserver

Red Rover, were you not around for the 1990 provincial election in Ontario? The summer election that David Peterson cockily called after only three years thinking he could get himself another 5 year mandate when no-one was paying attention?

Debater, I see you're learning ;-) On the other hand, it is pretty difficult for anyone to get a majority in the current climate, given the number of seats the Bloc starts off with almost de facto. I'm assuming that's what Ken meant, ahem.

Sun, 2009-06-14 05:43

#112

KenS

EI changes not a sure thing: Finley

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ei-changes-not-a-sure-thing-finley/article1179547/

This says two things to file away and check when we find out whether it is white smoke or black smoke comming out of Iggy's ears.

First is that while Harper holds up that anything is possible around EI changes in the near term, Finley lets slip that they are planning on doing nothing.

For the Liberals, McCallum noted that.

Sun, 2009-06-14 06:00

#113

KenS

RedRover wrote:
Election timing and anger at who forced is a myth.

It is not a vote-determinent for anyone.

It is not in itself. But it can be a determinate tipping point, as it was with Petersen.

RedRover wrote:
It may dominate coverage for the first few days of a campaign, but it is has no influence on the outcome.

Liberals know this, so there would have to be a more compelling reason for them not to pull the plug.

Has no influence on the outcome, unless the fact people don't like it preys upon existing weaknesses the Liberals have, and helps cast those.

And in the present case, the Liberal campaign team knows that they cannot afford to let Harper get out and 'score first'.

Its the economy stupid. I suspect polling questions will find that confidence in Harper among swing voters is skin deep, and that he is vulnerable. But, fairly or not [irrelevant], there is no confidence in Iggy; and he and the Liberals are just plain vulnerable on that score. Vulerable, period; as opposed to Harper's potentially vulnerable. This is the fertile ground that is the context for peoples strong and consistent answers that even when they answer that they want to see action on things like EI, they expect to see things get done without an election now.

And the ads are already produced and ready to run should Iggy anounce tommorow that they will be voting no confidence. I bet Harper runs them to score points even if he knows that they will avoid an election with a deal.

Sun, 2009-06-14 07:37

#114

Maysie

Closing for length.

Pages

Topic locked