Summer election or not: Part 2

Uncle John wrote:

Still with Liberal and Conservative together, we have a nice majority government supported by 65+% of Canadians.

Yes, but only because some of those supporters believe they are voting for a different party.

By conceeding to only study the EI 'question' Ignatieff has shown once again the Liberal 'principles' are nonexistent in today's Liberal party.  Ignatieff has shown Canadians once and for all that this is NOT the party of Pearson and Trudeau.  Hell, not even Chretien.  The question is are progressive Canadians paying attention or will they continue to be hoodwinked by the posers in the Liberal-Conservative Coalition.

I think I am going to get a bumpsticker made that says - I oppose the Liberal-Conservative Coalition.

West Coast Lefty wrote:

The other pundits are going nuts about the certainty of an early November election but I don't buy it for a second, for the following reasons:

- The Copenhagen climate change conference is taking place from Dec 7 to 18 2009 - this is literally the conference to save the world and a November election would mean Canada would have no input in the crucial negotations leading up to the conference.  Stakeholders from the left and the right, esp the business community, will put pressure on the Libs not to bring the government down during this time period.  Plus, why would Iggy want to take power right before the conference with no ability to influence Canada's position there? Harper will simply copy Obama's positions in any event.

- On the more crass political level, Iggy desperately needs gains in Quebec to have any hope of winning even a minority.  So, what's happening in Quebec in fall 2009? Municipal elections across the province will take place November 1, in particular an epic federalist/sovereignist battle for the mayor of Montreal between ex-PQ cabinet minster Louise Harel and incumbent Gérard Tremblay, former PLQ Minister under Bourrassa.  All of the key Lib organizers in Montreal will be working for Tremblay, who is likely in danger of losing.  That means the key BQ/Lib swing seats like Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le-Ber and Papineau will not have the foot soilders available for a November election.

I'd put money on a spring 2010 election, though the Libs may cave yet again if Harper is riding a wave of popularity from Copenhagen (if there is a good deal) and the 2010 Olympics, as well as economic recovery. 

There will always be something going on in Canada or on the international front - at some point there will be an election regardless of what is happening at home or abroad.

As for the municipal election in Montreal, I don't think Temblay is "likely" in danger of losing - he is still in the lead and Louise Harel is viewed as a joke and as passé by many people.  Still, there is a possibility she could win and it's no longer viewed as the sure thing for Tremblay it once was.

Btw, I would not describe Papineau as a swing seat.  A swing seat is a riding that switches back and forth between parties on a regular basis.  Papineau has only gone Bloc ONCE and that was during the Sponsorship Scandal and by a small margin.  Now that the riding has been won by Justin Trudeau, it will likely stay Liberal.  If the BQ couldn't beat Justin when they were the incumbents, it will be very hard for them to beat him now.

ocsi]</p> <p>[quote=Bookish Agrarian wrote:

 

I think I am going to get a bumpsticker made that says - I oppose the Liberal-Conservative Coalition.

Make me a bunch!

I'll take them to the federal NDP Convention in Halifax, and make sure that any New Democrats from Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley have them in time for the by-election (early/mid September?)

Closing for length, please start a new thread folks!