L. Ian Macdonald has a good column this AM outlining what a disaster this week was for Iggy. He put his credbility on the line and caved on every substantive issue. I thought at least the blue-ribbon panel would be some independent experts but it's all politicians and advisors, ensuring that Harper will get the report he wants and the concessions he's prepared to give. There is no reason to think voters will want an election just a year after the last one.
The other pundits are going nuts about the certainty of an early November election but I don't buy it for a second, for the following reasons:
- The Copenhagen climate change conference is taking place from Dec 7 to 18 2009 - this is literally the conference to save the world and a November election would mean Canada would have no input in the crucial negotations leading up to the conference. Stakeholders from the left and the right, esp the business community, will put pressure on the Libs not to bring the government down during this time period. Plus, why would Iggy want to take power right before the conference with no ability to influence Canada's position there? Harper will simply copy Obama's positions in any event.
- On the more crass political level, Iggy desperately needs gains in Quebec to have any hope of winning even a minority. So, what's happening in Quebec in fall 2009? Municipal elections across the province will take place November 1, in particular an epic federalist/sovereignist battle for the mayor of Montreal between ex-PQ cabinet minster Louise Harel and incumbent Gérard Tremblay, former PLQ Minister under Bourrassa. All of the key Lib organizers in Montreal will be working for Tremblay, who is likely in danger of losing. That means the key BQ/Lib swing seats like Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le-Ber and Papineau will not have the foot soilders available for a November election.
I'd put money on a spring 2010 election, though the Libs may cave yet again if Harper is riding a wave of popularity from Copenhagen (if there is a good deal) and the 2010 Olympics, as well as economic recovery.