Latest Opinion Poll - June 10, 2009

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Fri, 2009-06-19 17:48

Debater

I don't normally agree with you BA, but I will agree that Coyne showed a bias against the NDP when he said he enjoyed seeing Jack Layton betrayed and the look on his face. That was a stupid and unworthy comment for a political analyst to make.

On the issue of the BQ though, when you talk about "democracy" you forget that the BQ does not necessarily have an automatic right to be in the House. Many countries, including democratic ones, prevent separatist parties because it is a threat to the stability of the country and federation itself. Countries have a right to protect themselves from breaking up. There are reasonable limitations on democracy, and one of those may be restricting separatist parties from being elected. It's not a clear-cut issue - arguments can be made on both sides.

Fri, 2009-06-19 18:58

#103

Stockholm

I can't think of any country in the industrialized world that explicitly bars secessionist parties from running. Even in Turkey instead of banning the Kurdish separatist party, they have a 10% threshold nationawide to get any seats and that makes it impossible for them.

Fri, 2009-06-19 19:23

#104

remind

I know BA, it was disgusting commentary by Coyne and his words will alienate Quebeckers too. He had better not be on the At Issue panel come the fall.

The horse is already out of the barn and the barn is burnt down on the Bloc not having seats in Ottawa, debator. So actually it is now an automatic right and to suggest otherwise is beyond the pale.

Fri, 2009-06-19 19:24

#105

Debater

adma wrote:

I'd also add Ahuntsic and Saint-Lambert and some others (maybe even both Gaspe seats, including the one Nancy Charest's re-running in). Though in that list, I'm less certain about how high Levis-Bellechasse would rank now, following redistribution--but I wouldn't be surprised at Louis-Hebert.

You are right - Nancy Charest will be running in the next federal election in Haute-Gaspesie. I recently had the opportunity to chat with her briefly and I was quite impressed. If she came within only 600 votes of the BQ under Dion when the Libs were only in the low 20's in QC, she certainly should be able to win now that the Libs are much higher, and in a sense the BQ has kind of conceded the seat now that the incumbent is packing it in and they won't even have the incumbency advantage next time.

I agree about Ahuntsic. Ahuntsic almost went Liberal in October since the BQ only barely managed to hang onto it (by 150 votes). I haven't heard yet if Eleni Bakopanos is running again though so who knows. Saint Lambert is winnable for the Liberals, yes, as it was Liberal before the Sponsorship Scandal, and Louis-Hebert was too. Louis-Hebert has actually voted LIB, CON and BQ in the last 3 elections, so it seems to be a swing seat that votes with whichever party has momentum.

Laval may also be winnable for the Liberals too, as well as a number of others.

Fri, 2009-06-19 20:01

#106

ottawaobserver

Debater wrote:

You are right - Nancy Charest will be running in the next federal election in Haute-Gaspesie. I recently had the opportunity to chat with her briefly and I was quite impressed.

But, of course, you haven't decided if you're working for the Liberals or not yet. Uh-huh.

Debater wrote:

If she came within only 600 votes of the BQ under Dion when the Libs were only in the low 20's in QC, she certainly should be able to win now that the Libs are much higher, and in a sense the BQ has kind of conceded the seat now that the incumbent is packing it in and they won't even have the incumbency advantage next time.

Yes, they've conceded it by moving to nominate a candidate in there very early, who is strongly supported by Gilles Duceppe (jean-François Fortin). That really sounds like a concession.

Debater wrote:

I agree about Ahuntsic. Ahuntsic almost went Liberal in October since the BQ only barely managed to hang onto it (by 150 votes). I haven't heard yet if Eleni Bakopanos is running again though so who knows.

Yup, she is. I think I read that this will be, like, her third or fourth try at getting that seat back again. Isn't it time for someone else to inherit the mantle of entitledom there yet?

Fri, 2009-06-19 20:41

#107

Debater

ottawaobserver wrote:

But, of course, you haven't decided if you're working for the Liberals or not yet. Uh-huh.

I probably will be working for the Liberals this Summer. I hinted at that yesterday. I was at a Liberal nomination meeting last night here in the Ottawa area in a Conservative-Liberal swing riding and I've decided that I want Harper gone and the best way to do that right now is by supporting the Liberals in seats the Libs can take away from them.

Debater wrote:

If she came within only 600 votes of the BQ under Dion when the Libs were only in the low 20's in QC, she certainly should be able to win now that the Libs are much higher, and in a sense the BQ has kind of conceded the seat now that the incumbent is packing it in and they won't even have the incumbency advantage next time.

ottawaobserver wrote:

Yes, they've conceded it by moving to nominate a candidate in there very early, who is strongly supported by Gilles Duceppe (jean-François Fortin). That really sounds like a concession.

Has Fortin finally agreed to run now? Last month he turned Duceppe down when he was asked and told the media he was not running. I guess he was persuaded to change his mind.

Debater wrote:

I agree about Ahuntsic. Ahuntsic almost went Liberal in October since the BQ only barely managed to hang onto it (by 150 votes). I haven't heard yet if Eleni Bakopanos is running again though so who knows.

ottawaobserver wrote:

Yup, she is. I think I read that this will be, like, her third or fourth try at getting that seat back again. Isn't it time for someone else to inherit the mantle of entitledom there yet?

Actually, if Bakopanos runs in the next federal election, it will be only her 2nd attempt to take back the riding. She held it until 2006, so she has only made one attempt so far to take it back.

Btw, isn't it a bit contradictory to accuse one candidate of "entitledom" for running multiple times when it's something people from ALL political parties are guilty of? Look at the NDP. What about Chris Charlton in Hamilton? She ran multiple times before winning. What about Sid Ryan in Oshawa? He's run repeatedly at both the provincial and federal levels. Let's not pick on one candidate because they run several times when there are dozens of examples in all parties. Fair?

Fri, 2009-06-19 21:18

#108

Lord Palmerston

Debater wrote:
Laval may also be winnable for the Liberals too, as well as a number of others.

Can you tell us some of these "number of others" are? I can't see the Libs taking more than say 22 seats in Quebec, max. Hardly a massive breakthrough. Is Jean Chretien's old riding going to go Liberal?

Fri, 2009-06-19 22:28

#109

Debater

Why would you assume a maximum of only 22 seats? The Liberals already have 14, so that would be a pickup of no more than 8. It could end up being only that, but it could end up being a number more according to Quebec insiders.

I have a more detailed list of possible Liberal pickups on a paper somewhere, but since I don't have it at my fingertips, off the top of my head some of the possible pickups for the Libs could include:

Outremont

Gatineau

Pontiac

Louis-Hebert

Shefford

Brome-Missisquoi

Jeanne-Le Ber

Laval

Ahuntsic

Saint-Lambert

Haute-Gaspesie

Alfred-Pellan

Fri, 2009-06-19 22:35

#110

adma

Lord Palmerston wrote:

Is Jean Chretien's old riding going to go Liberal?

For the sake of argument, it *could* be more marginal than you're counting on, if the Liberals are on track t/w opening up a several-point lead over the BQ...

Fri, 2009-06-19 22:47

#111

adma

Debater wrote:
Shefford

I don't know if Shefford would rank so high--it's got a quirky electoral history, thanks to Jean Lapierre holding it for the Liberals in 1988, Diane St-Jacques gaining it for the Tories in 1997 and holding it as a Liberal in 2000--but at heart, I think of it as pretty typically, if not overwhelmingly, Bloc-ish. Not entirely unlike St Maurice-Champlain, in fact...

(Weird. In one post, I defend Liberal chances in St Maurice; then in the next post, I use St Maurice as an example to *downplay* Liberal chances in Shefford. It's fun to straddle.)

Sat, 2009-06-20 00:45

#112

Debater

adma wrote:

Debater wrote:
Shefford

I don't know if Shefford would rank so high--it's got a quirky electoral history, thanks to Jean Lapierre holding it for the Liberals in 1988, Diane St-Jacques gaining it for the Tories in 1997 and holding it as a Liberal in 2000--but at heart, I think of it as pretty typically, if not overwhelmingly, Bloc-ish. Not entirely unlike St Maurice-Champlain, in fact...

(Weird. In one post, I defend Liberal chances in St Maurice; then in the next post, I use St Maurice as an example to *downplay* Liberal chances in Shefford. It's fun to straddle.)

I agree with you that Shefford may be one of the weaker ridings for the Liberals on the list above. I was asked to provide a list of possible Liberal pickups in QC and so I listed it as one that is within the realm of possibility as it was Liberal as recently as 2000.

Other ridings that could be added to the list I made above include:

Gaspesie-Illes-De-La-Madeline

Vaudreuil-Soulanges

Sat, 2009-06-20 01:34

#113

ottawaobserver

Well, I respect you for putting them down on paper. Accountable punditry!

Sat, 2009-06-20 09:33

#114

Maysie

Closing for length.

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