And when it comes to Kenora, remember the psychological effect of the Tories finishing ahead of the NDP in '06 (after finishing behind in '04) might have affected voter choices. (And maybe proximity to the Prairies subtly "validated" the Tories as an electoral choice here, i.e. awakened a certain "Provencher East" dynamic.)
At first I thought you meant Peter Ferreira (who had run for us this past time in Davenport) and was going to say an enthusiastic yes. I had hoped we would take that seat last time, but recognize it's at least a two-election commitment. The Liberal Mario Silva is the one who unseated Charles Caccia for his nomination as part of the Paul Martin goon squad, and while nominally a left, out Liberal, has betrayed the labour movement twice on his anti-scab private member's bill. I notice he had real trouble raising money for the last election, and was about $30K in the hole before the rebate. This caused him to underspend relative to Ferreira's campaign, and the Conservatives have evidently given up on the riding, raising less than the Green Party EDA last year.
Though I'm not sure whether the Tories ever saw Davenport in anything more than nominal terms. And keep in mind that the Green candidate (bike messenger activist Wayne Scott) was the closest to a party "star" running in the 416.
16-year record of local activism in the riding.But, in fact, you meant PAUL Ferreira who briefly won the provincial seat in York South-Weston after running twice federally and a few more times provincially and municipally. I'm not sure but on the surface it looks like our candidate last time Mike Sullivan did better on his first outing than Paul Ferreira did on either of his two previous federal tries. Given that Tonks may step down soon, we should really be picking a strong horse and sticking with it here. Sullivan is a national CEP staff rep doing negotiations with the CBC, and who had a
True, Sullivan did better; but paradoxically bear in mind that that was in great measure on the coattails of Paul Ferreira's provincial success. If not for Ferreira's "validating" the NDP as an electable choice, I suspect Sullivan might have achieved more of an 04/06-type result. (Which isn't an argument against either candidate, BTW.)
I've also been impressed with Mohamed Boudjenane, but we've also had a good candidate in Ali Naqvi in Etobicoke North. I find Duncan to be a real self-promoter and a horrible fit for the demographics of that riding, and while she has academic credentials I don't find her terribly sharp when I see her in the House or on TV. She was part of a big group that won the Nobel prize, and had a questionable role in any of it, if you read Gina Kolata (the NY Times science writer).
And re the "horrible fit", keep in mind that Duncan underachieved (48.6%, a lower share than even Borys W. in Etobicoke Centre) and the Tory candidate overachieved (cracking 30%) in '08.
And Naqvi was one of the few 416er NDPers to improve on '06, perhaps partly because of Duncan's deficiencies, but also because the party started taking the seat's pickup potential borderline seriously. In his previous tries, he was treated as a throwaway; not this time...