Canada's party of national unity

21 posts / 0 new

Fri, 2009-07-17 20:46

Wilf Day

The Liberal Party has, since Laurier and more recently since Trudeau, claimed to be the party of national unity, representing French-Canadians outside Quebec.

But look at the NDP and Liberal Caucuses:

From Northern Ontario:

Four New Democrats:

Claude Gravelle, Nickel Belt (42% francophone)

Charlie Angus, Timmins-James Bay (34% francophone)

Carol Hughes, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing (31% francophone) (note: born in Val Caron in the francophone East Sudbury region, and her bio says "Member of the French-language elementary and secondary school councils" so she sounds francophone with francophone children, despite her surname from her husband Keith Hughes. Anyone know her maiden name?)

Glenn Thibeault, Sudbury (22% francophone)

Two Liberals:

Mauril Bélanger, Ottawa-Vanier (32% francophone)

Anthony Rota, Nipissing - Timiskaming (19% francophone; married to Chantal Piché, a teacher in a North Bay francophone school)

From New Brunswick:

One New Democrat: Yvon Godin, Acadie-Bathurst (85% francophone)

Three Liberals:

Jean-Claude D'Amours, Madawaska - Restigouche (83% francophone)

Dominic LeBlanc, Beauséjour (59% francophone)

Brian Murphy, Moncton - Riverview - Dieppe (38% francophone, married to Acadian Jacqueline Richard)

Five and five.

Fri, 2009-07-17 23:54

Debater

But that is only a recent development that occurred in October when the Liberals were almost wiped out in Northern Ontario and most of the seats went NDP - until October the Liberals held almost all of those seats.

What will be significant is if the NDP can hang onto them after the next election and into the future - if the NDP can do that it may mean a change in the pattern, but at the moment it is only a recent development as a result of the rejection of the Liberal platform in the Northern Ontario ridings last year.

Sat, 2009-07-18 00:00

Cueball

The whole national unity thing is a long dead parrot. It appeals to sentiment, pride and a nostalgic sense of good days gone, since the time Mulroney sold the country down the drain. The question "should Quebec seperate" is best answered by asking, "seperate from what?"

Most often this parrot is revived as a way of giving the general population a way of expressing their most prejuducial sentiments in the form of an acceptable official discourse, while distracting them from what is really going on.

Sat, 2009-07-18 03:40

bagkitty

aren't they just so damn cute when they think that the linguistic divide is the only fault line in this country... why it makes me want to give them $1.25 so they can run out and get themselves an ice cream

Sat, 2009-07-18 09:34

ottawaobserver

I do think Wilf is on to an interesting trend, however. Debater (natch) wants to dismiss it, but if we do keep those seats it spells a bit of trouble for his party, because meanwhile they also lost Saint Boniface to the Conservatives in Manitoba, and the most francophone seat in Alberta (Edmonton-Strathcona, which contains the french neighbourhood of Bonnie Doon) to the NDP as well.

Anyways, I'm not sure how the Liberals would expect to regain those northern Ontario seats with the right-wing leader they have. Two of the candidates who've been renominated in the northwestern Ontario seats are former MPs who are just running to get enough years for their pension eligibility, and the NDP has been strong both provincially and federally across northern Ontario for quite some time now, even in spite of a provincial Liberal government. The argument of "you need someone on the government side" has clearly not worked to thsi point up there. And it's Tony Martin clearly leading the fight on FedNor.

Sun, 2009-07-19 02:03

skarredmunkey

Wilf Day wrote:

The Liberal Party has, since Laurier and more recently since Trudeau, claimed to be the party of national unity, representing French-Canadians outside Quebec.

What do French-Canadians-outside-of-Quebec have to do with national unity?

Sun, 2009-07-19 14:41

Debater

ottawaobserver wrote:

I do think Wilf is on to an interesting trend, however. Debater (natch) wants to dismiss it, but if we do keep those seats it spells a bit of trouble for his party, because meanwhile they also lost Saint Boniface to the Conservatives in Manitoba, and the most francophone seat in Alberta (Edmonton-Strathcona, which contains the french neighbourhood of Bonnie Doon) to the NDP as well.

What does "natch" mean? And don't refer to the Liberals as my party please. Incidentally, I didn't dismiss anything - if you read my post you will notice I said that the trend might be significant if it continued beyond the next election.

Btw, the Liberals did not lose Edmonton-Strathcona in the last election - they haven't held it for years.

Sun, 2009-07-19 15:12

NorthReport

Considering they are "Canada's Natural Governing Party" how many elections ago did the Liberals last win a seat in Alberta?

Sun, 2009-07-19 15:23

bagkitty

NorthReport... that would be Anne McClellan, Edmonton Centre, 2 elections ago I believe.

Sun, 2009-07-19 15:27

#10

NorthReport

Thanks bagkitty.

Wow, the West is making some changes politically. Sometimes I wonder if the people in the East realize that.

Sun, 2009-07-19 15:29

#11

ottawaobserver

Debater, you're right in terms of the seat of Edmonton-Strathcona, although the Liberal base of strength in that riding is Bonnie Doon, which if I'm not mistaken voted for Linda Duncan last time. Liberal areas of the strength in the west have often been in the francophone areas in the past 30 years, e.g., the Gravelbourg provincial riding in Saskatchewan for another case, where the former provincial Liberal leader used to get elected.

Sun, 2009-07-19 15:38

#12

bagkitty

NorthReport... well if they don't now, they will shortly... there is a bit of an exodus of the opportunists who slithered in during the last twenty years or so, they may be turning up in your neighbourhood soon (is it too much to hope that Steve-O might move back to ONtario?). Of course this is really sad for Saskatchewan (lots of them heading [back] that way), but personally I won't object to my home being less of a dumping ground for right-wing opportunists in search of a quick buck.

Sun, 2009-07-19 18:38

#13

Sean in Ottawa

The biggest divide in Canada is not linguistic and it is not regional either. It is urban-suburban and rural. The NDP has consolidated more in the cities and lost much of its rural voice over the last while-- this is why the northern Ontario victories are so important. The Liberals are in poor shape now outside cities and the Cons as previusly discussed are okay in suburan places but on life support in urban centres. There is no real party of unity.

Unfortunately policy debates are split along the same lines-- doesn't matter if you mean energy and environmental policies, transportation, justice, healthcare, infrastructure, immigration or education. The Urban, suburban, rural split is critical and worsening. It is true that old batteles are becoming irrelevant as people in Montreal discover tey have more in commone with people in Toronto than they do with the folks in the Beauce. That's a reality we all have to get used to but let's not pretend there is unity here.

Sun, 2009-07-19 19:06

#14

NorthReport

Actually there is only one divide, always has been, and always will be.

If you are affluent you speak more than one language. if you are affluent, you have a place in the city, and you havea place in the country. If you are affluent you live in the East, and travel to the West, and vice versa.

The only divide is between the rich and the poor. The rich can look after themselves, so governments should be there to look after the poor. This means, among others, the unemployed, the refugees, the new immigrants, our First Nations people, people who flee domestic abuse situations, and the physically and mentally challenged.

Sun, 2009-07-19 19:13

#15

Sean in Ottawa

I agree that there is a divide where you speak -- I can even agree that this is the most significant in terms of effect. But I do not agree that it is the only one. Some of the others are significant and made more so by being ignored.

The distinction between very rich and very poor is obvious but in Caanda most live in between and the division I mention holds them apart. You can see it in votin patterns as well. Even well off people in urban areas vote Liberal or NDP but in suburban areas the support for the Cons comes across income levels. In rural areas poor people often vote conservative. We should be asking ourselves why rather than hiding behind 19th century marxian truisms that may be valid but do not answer the political questions we face.

Sun, 2009-07-19 20:12

#16

Debater

ottawaobserver wrote:

Debater, you're right in terms of the seat of Edmonton-Strathcona, although the Liberal base of strength in that riding is Bonnie Doon, which if I'm not mistaken voted for Linda Duncan last time. Liberal areas of the strength in the west have often been in the francophone areas in the past 30 years, e.g., the Gravelbourg provincial riding in Saskatchewan for another case, where the former provincial Liberal leader used to get elected.

Edmonton-Stratcona last voted Liberal in 1993 I believe when Chretien won his first big majority. I think Rahim Jaffer then took it in 1997 when Chretien's majority was reduced.

Yes, E-S voted NDP last fall and as I pointed out, that is because non-Conservative voters realized they had to cluster behind one candidate in order to beat the Conservatives and Linda Duncan was the one best-positioned to do that. That is the point of strategic ABC voting. As I also pointed out the last time E-S was discussed here, Duncan's future in that riding will depend on her ability to keep the Liberal votes she gained last time.

Because of Dion's total lack of appeal in Alberta, the NDP actually did better than the Liberals in Alberta last year and that helped Duncan in E-S. Ignatieff will probably perform better in Alberta than Dion so there is a danger of Duncan losing votes next time depending on what happens.

Sun, 2009-07-19 20:49

#17

ottawaobserver

Debater, I was talking about the neighbourhood of Bonnie Doon in the riding of Edmonton-Strathcona, which is the home of the francophone community there. I take it you've never been there, so you are speaking about the entire riding. The point of the thread higher up is that the Liberals might be losing their base amongst francophones outside of Quebec, which is why I was talking about that area. How the entire riding votes might be interesting to you, but it was not really the point I was trying to make.

What is it exactly that you think the Michael Ignatieff Liberals offer francophones outside Quebec that will allegedly win back all these votes you talk about? Or are you just taking national horse-race numbers, applying them across the board so they raise all Liberal boats, and mixing in a bit of "analysis" that "all the national pundits" are "expecting".

Sun, 2009-07-19 20:57

#18

Wilf Day

Oops, mis-posted.

Mon, 2009-07-20 01:43

#19

bagkitty

Just to set correct the record:

The last time there was a liberal representing Edmonton Strathcona was from 1968 to 1972.

Tories held it from 72-93, reform from 93 on until Linda Duncan NDP was elected last year.

Mon, 2009-07-20 15:00

#20

Debater

ottawaobserver wrote:

Debater, I was talking about the neighbourhood of Bonnie Doon in the riding of Edmonton-Strathcona, which is the home of the francophone community there. I take it you've never been there, so you are speaking about the entire riding. The point of the thread higher up is that the Liberals might be losing their base amongst francophones outside of Quebec, which is why I was talking about that area. How the entire riding votes might be interesting to you, but it was not really the point I was trying to make.

What is it exactly that you think the Michael Ignatieff Liberals offer francophones outside Quebec that will allegedly win back all these votes you talk about? Or are you just taking national horse-race numbers, applying them across the board so they raise all Liberal boats, and mixing in a bit of "analysis" that "all the national pundits" are "expecting".

As I said, we'll have to see whether the pattern holds after the next election.

But what is interesting is that the Liberals have been gaining strength amongst Francophones in Quebec, so I'm not sure what the significance of the Francophone ridings in English Canada may or may not be. Patterns sometimes change over time and it may be that Francophones outside Quebec don't feel the same historical ties anymore.

Why do you feel it is significant?

Mon, 2009-07-20 19:54

#21

remind

bagkitty wrote:
Just to set correct the record:

The last time there was a liberal representing Edmonton Strathcona was from 1968 to 1972.

Tories held it from 72-93, reform from 93 on until Linda Duncan NDP was elected last year.

Thanks for this, was just going to look it up to see if Liberal assertations about ES being Liberal not so long ago, were correct, as I did not believe so. Unless of course they think that 30+ years ago is not long ago.

Looking at the Liberals trends they have been sinking and sinking since 2000, so there is no real reason to suspect any trend reversal.