The Newest Polling Thread

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

 I loudly denounced the NDP's strategy last winter for saying it would automatically vote against the budget as it resulted in the party being irrelevant to the discussion about the budget contents. I suspect the party has learned that lesson. So Layton may well hold the cards tighter. But do not expect to predict based on polls what that party will do.

I supported it, and it was brilliant NDP strategy, and the NDP has been reaping the benefits of it. What Layton did by coming first out of the gate, was to box Ignatieff in, who is no shape to run against a seasoned pro like Harper, and forced the Liberals once again to support the Cons, destroying what little credibility the Libs had left, of contrasting themselves to the Cons. Political actions need to be looked at over a period of time, and it is important not to get too caught up in the day-to-day musings of the right-wing press. 

What melovesproles said.

remind wrote:

You are not seriously using 1 poll to state that Iggy is a more credible leader than Layton, are you debator? geez, the Liberals are desperate.

What one poll?  Multiple polls place Ignatieff ahead of Layton on leadership and have done so for months.

In any event, I was trying to engage in an objective analysis of the last election compared with what may happen in the next one and in your usual fashion you ignored it and are now focusing on this "desperate" line.

Please do provide links to ALL these polls, and a slight elevation for Iggy was to be expected.

This is an interesting thing:

Quote:

A while back, the Strategic Counsel released a poll that managed to slip passed my attention until just now (source).

Many of the findings are fairly banal, however I was surprised to discover this one particularly interesting finding.  It turns out that of the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Bloc Québécois; Liberal Party supporters are the least likely to believe that their own party shares their values.

http://paulitics.wordpress.com/2009/07/08/liberal-party-supporters-are-l...

You were undertaking objective analysis? Hardly.

And seeing as how you ignored actual objective analysis that I posted in another thread I will report it here, as it is more applicable anyway here.

Let's look at where the NDP and Liberals were polling this time last year and  just before the election and do a compare to now and final elections results. Current trends mean nothing, we all know where the Green Party trends and what they actually get. And we all know where the Liberals were this time last year and what they actually got at election time.

Beginning of Sept last year the Liberals were polling 12% above the NDP, and it meant nothing at the end of the day. The NDP closed the gap by 6% on election day.

Indeed on Sept 19, of last year, a poll for ON  had the Liberals at 37% and look where they ended at election time 33.8%, and indeed the same poll had the Liberals at 28% in BC,  and the NDP at 18%, final score at election time was Liberals at 19.3% and the NDP at 26.1%. A almost complete reversal of the poll predictions, in less than a month before the election.

The poll of 45 battleground ridings across the country was conducted for The Globe and Mail newspaper and CTV by the Strategic Counsel,

http://www.punditsguide.ca/index.php

Moreover, the NDP had 2 missing candidates, and several cases of nasty politics by the Liberals that actually deflated the NDP's votes, say nothing of EMay telling the Green Pary voters to vote Liberal, all of which over inflated the Liberal numbers and the phoney strategic voting whine did too. Had that stuff not occured, one wonders just how far the Liberals would have been down from what they actually got at election time.

IMV, they could have easily been down 4% lower than what they actually achieved. And as such, it is easily doable for the NDP to overtake the LIberals. No NDP candidate problems and no shilling for the Liberals, by another political party's leader, would make that 4%  deficit up easily.

And indeed, at this time last year, NDP poll numbers were at about 14-15% and now they are steady at 18%. And given they finished at 18.2%  3-4% above poll projections  from this time last year, the future looks pretty bright for continued NDP increases at actual election time. Especially given the trend over the last 9 years is for the NDP increasing and the Liberal Party decreasing, at election time, and that cannot be denied, nor discounted.

This gives even more weight to the premise that an increase of 4% by the NDP, at the Liberals expense is easily doable. And indeed even more is possible, all things given. It is no wonder the Liberals are feeling desperate, Iggy is falling flat and their numbers  are just not good enough. They are only 2% above where the polls were last year around this time, and are only polling 3.7% above their election totals.

http://paulitics.wordpress.com/poll-index/national/

That was Charlottetown not Meech though and I think that the biggest bath the NDP took in 1993 was in Ontario - which voted in favour of Ch'town. I'm not sure that there was much choice but to support Charlottetown in 1992 given that all the premiers had agreed to it - including three NDP premiers.

Reform was able to go wild in 1993 with a quasi-racist Quebec-bashing campaign attacking Charlotteown for "giving too much to the French". There is no way that the NDP could ever have joined in that feeding frenzy.