Futurism and the Analysis of Alternate Scenarios

15 posts / 0 new

Fri, 2009-09-04 20:38

docjmd

Proper public policy should not be the result of ideology, money or politics overriding logic or scientific evidence. Unfortunately that is our current status.

Rather it should emanate from a VARIETY OF ALTERNATIVE OUTCOMES, GIVEN A SPECIFIED SET OF ASSUMPTIONS. THESE ARE NOT PREDICTIONS-THEY ARE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES-FROM THE BEST TO THE WORST.

Evaluating alternative futures should not imply lack of academic rigor-in fact they are more demanding in so many ways.

I have a Ph.D. that may focus primarily on economics and science, but there are jobs to be lost and kingdoms to defend in each discipline.

I am semi-retired and at 61 years of age. In can pretty much say what I believe without economic or career implications. Look at the age, income, Department/Academic rank of Obama's advisors.

AL GORE IS A FAILED POLITICIAN WHO HAS BECOME VERY WEALTHY AS A VENTURE CAPITALIST PROMULGATING A GLOBAL WARMING FARCE. HE IS ENABLING A TOTAL BREAKDOWN IN DEVELOPING AN EFFECTIVE ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY. PRESIDENT OBAMA HAS BEEN SOLD A PHONY BAG OF GOODS AND WE VERY MUCH NEED ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO ANALYSES-WHICH HE HAS ACCESS TO- TO FORMULATE RATIONAL PUBLIC POLICIES.

I BELIEVE THE ABOVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FACILITATE DEBATE. THIS IS NOT JUST ABOUT THE USA-FUTURISM INCLUDES BRAZIL, RUSSIA, CHINA, INDIA [THE SO CALLED "BRIC" NATIONS IN ANALYZING THE 21ST CENTURY.

Jeffrey M Doyle, Ph.D.

Fri, 2009-09-04 20:37

Maysie

Hi Jeffery and a belated welcome to babble.

Interesting topic. I hope an interesting discussion ensues.

I'm editing your thread title to not read in all caps.

Fri, 2009-09-04 20:45

docjmd

Sorry about the Caps-Old Government Habit

Fri, 2009-09-04 21:05

triciamarie

I'd be interested to hear more, docjmd.

Fri, 2009-09-04 21:41

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

docjmd wrote:

Proper public policy should not be the result of ideology...

AL GORE IS A FAILED POLITICIAN WHO HAS BECOME VERY WEALTHY AS A VENTURE CAPITALIST PROMULGATING A GLOBAL WARMING FARCE. HE IS ENABLING A TOTAL BREAKDOWN IN DEVELOPING AN EFFECTIVE ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY. PRESIDENT OBAMA HAS BEEN SOLD A PHONY BAG OF GOODS AND WE VERY MUCH NEED ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO ANALYSES-WHICH HE HAS ACCESS TO- TO FORMULATE RATIONAL PUBLIC POLICIES.

As a premise for considering public policy alternatives, this one is loaded with ideology. You've just contradicted yourself.

BTW, how does a PhD in economics and science qualify you as an expert on public policy? Obviously you think it does, since you mention it in your post and even use the "doc" prefix on your screen name.

Fri, 2009-09-04 22:39

docjmd

I guess I Finally got a live one. First of all, as an undergrad i was "pre-law""and all the gov't b'sh##t in my work for the Feds and 2 states-education & experience. Second, since when do you need courses to know about public policy.

I have a funny feeling my discussion of AL GORE might have been a catalyst. TOO BAD OVER 7,000 SCIENTISTS DISPUTE HIS CO2 NONSENSENSE. TALK TO BILL HAPPER AT PRINCETON-YOU MIGHT LEARN SOMETHING.

MY IDEOLOGY IS VALIDATING IDEAS THAT TOOK 32 YEARS TO TAKE ROOT-"ECONOMICS IS NOT PHYSICS" ETC.

FINALLY, MY PH.D. ENCOMPASSES FAR MORE THAN ECONOMICS AND PHYSICS.

WE NEED AN ALTERNATE MODEL FOR EVALUATING THE FUTURE THAN ONE THAT IS BOUND TO ANY SINGLE DISCIPLINE OR DOGMA.

Fri, 2009-09-04 23:03

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

You're a run-of-the-mill climate-change denier and you're a looney. Not worth wasting time on.

Sat, 2009-09-05 00:34

Fidel

[url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2007/10/23/scifut... of science: 'We will have the power of the gods'[/url]

Quote:
A leading theoretical physicist has tapped the best scientific brains of the age to provide a startling vision of the future. Roger Highfield reports

Just before Sir Isaac Newton died, he described how humbled he felt by the thought that he had glimpsed only a fraction of the potential of the great scientific revolution he had helped to launch: "I seem to have been only like a boy playing on the seashore and diverting myself in now and then finding a smoother pebble or prettier shell than ordinary, while the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me."

Three centuries later, that great ocean of truth is not so mysterious. According to the theoretical physicist Professor Michio Kaku of the City College of New York, we are entering an empowered new era: "We have unlocked the secrets of matter.

We have unravelled the molecule of life, DNA. And we have created a form of artificial intelligence, the computer. We are making the historic transition from the age of scientific discovery to the age of scientific mastery in which we will be able to manipulate and mould nature almost to our wishes."

Sat, 2009-09-05 01:22

docjmd

M. Spector wrote:

You're a run-of-the-mill climate-change denier and you're a looney. Not worth wasting time on.

I'm not wasting any more time on someone with your vast intellectual background.By the way, most theoretical physicists and cosmologists believe in GOD unlike you-WHAT A SUPRISE!

Sat, 2009-09-05 01:53

#10

docjmd

AN EPIPHANY.

HAVE YOU EVER HAD ONE?

Sat, 2009-09-05 01:54

#11

Spectrum

Jeffrey M Doyle, Ph.D wrote:
As a consequence, I along with many others have evolved into the field of ALTERNATIVE FUTURES WITH MULTIPLE SCENARIOS which encompass a wide variety of academic disciplines and styles of thinking.

Economics, in it's desperation to become a "science" has achieved internal [mathematical precision] at the cost of being invalid as a predictor of many social issues

We got a live one?:)

Quote:
EVOLUTIONARY ECONOMICS FOR REAL WORLD PROBLEMS-INTERDISCIPLINARY UTILIZATION AND INTEGRATION OF PHYSICS, BIOLOGY AND ESPECIALLY THERMODYNAMICS INTO ECONOMIC ANALYSES, WILL GREATLY ENHANCE OUR ABILITY TO ADDRESS AND SOLVE CURRENT SOCIAL PROBLEMS--ESPECIALLY IN THE THE AREAS OF OF ENERGY AND ECOSYSTEM STABILITY

Pretty confident when your talking about the "state of things" and "where you think they have gone too" other then "what really preceded the question of a possible future?"

If you understood properly, it meant that all the work scientifically had already been done, and that now having the knowledge of science and it's processes, it's mathematics, it was time for something to descend into the mind(that aha moment) for some revelation of that future. Ingenuity, prepares the ground first.

The Manhattan Economic Project was represented by knowledgeable people and there was nothing esoteric about it.

Maybe it was the emotive consequence of Plato's ideas that disturb the rational of, "Aristotelian logic working together with Plato?"

Sat, 2009-09-05 02:15

#12

Fidel

Spectrum wrote:
The Manhattan Economic Project was represented by knowledgeable people and there was nothing esoteric about it.

Maybe it was the emotive consequence of Plato's ideas that disturb the rational of, "Aristotelian logic working together with Plato?"

I think the Manhatten project was supposed to be about beating the Nazis to the bomb. And scientists then believed such a terrible weapon could end any and all incentive for traditional type conventional wars where they tended to go on for years and years without end and with plenty of wariteering in the mean time. I think those scientists didnt anticipate that there would be megalomaniacal psychopaths in positions of political power who would actually use it. If anything though, it has kept the maniacs from waging war on those countries that have it today. Atoms for peace projects were quickly transformed into tools of technological imperialism to be held over the collective heads of developing countries.

Sat, 2009-09-05 02:21

#13

Spectrum

Evolutionary thinking, is a strange thing is it not?

Sat, 2009-09-05 02:48

#14

Spectrum

Fidel wrote:

Spectrum wrote:
The Manhattan Economic Project was represented by knowledgeable people and there was nothing esoteric about it.

Maybe it was the emotive consequence of Plato's ideas that disturb the rational of, "Aristotelian logic working together with Plato?"

I think the Manhattan project was supposed to be about beating the Nazis to the bomb. And scientists then believed such a terrible weapon could end any and all incentive for traditional type conventional wars where they tended to go on for years and years without end and with plenty of wariteering in the mean time. I think those scientists didn't anticipate that there would be megalomaniacal psychopaths in positions of political power who would actually use it. If anything though, it has kept the maniacs from waging war on those countries that have it today. Atoms for peace projects were quickly transformed into tools of technological imperialism to be held over the collective heads of developing countries.

Hi Fidel,

Yes I understood. Thanks.

The context of the terminology Manhattan project was used to provide "importance," that was placed on finding solutions to the economic situation? It required perspective for ingenuity under a format for bringing "other ideas" with respect to professions scientifically based. To offer some kind of scenarios for entertainment and consideration for that future.

Not just one, does not mean there is not potential for ideas to manifest elsewere and to provide for possible solutions.

Reaction to what happened with the economy was based on what happened in the thirties, yet, the other alternative was selected, as there was only a historial perspective with which to stop the economy from continuing onward with the recession that we were in? There had to be a future scenario to which we could adopt "new principals" and "new ways" to think about the economy other then what it had entailed to this time.

Politically, "Good Governance" gives one an option and a platform with which to work? It gives people and a electorate a chance to think about what good governement is and how we want to measure how a party is doing. Transparency?

Sun, 2009-09-06 13:07

#15

Spectrum

moved info