layton is afraid of an election

Scott Piatkowski wrote:

OK Liberal fans, I'll tell you what. Get back to me after the NDP votes with Harper 79 times in a row. If that ever happens, we'll do a tally then to see which opposition party achieved the most for its efforts. Because, right now, the hypoGrits have exactly nothing to show for their three years as Canada's Natural Grovelling Party.

Great, so does that mean the NDP feels it can support another 78 confidence motions before the Liberals can call them on it too?  Or make it 75 given theyve already supported Harper twice before.   Did Layton playing footsy with Harper over the previously ballyhooed environmental bill help the NDP get more progressive legislation passed, or did it just help gain the CPC more credibility on the issue before the government spiked it for even an emptier series or promises?  And did the NDp even gain a lasting boost in the polls over that previous episode?

Making "Parliament work" when it's run by rightwingers is never a good strategy for any left of centre party, as the latest polling numbers indicate again.  Mauybe the lesson is: act like liberals and more people will just figure they might as well vote for the ones with a decent chance of winning.

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Erik Redburn wrote:

If the NDP isn't afraid of an electon why is he supporting Harper again?  

Home renovation tax credits and improvements to EI. It's not rocket science. 

All that is happening is that the NDP is [apparently or probably] going to vote for the supply motion.

Two things going on here: some modestly important substantive leg, and all the parties positioning themselves in their distinct ways for the showdown to come.

Neither the Bloc or the NDP [should they also vote yes] is 'supporting Harper'.

We can read our tea leaves and weigh in as to what we think will happen, about supporting the government, but it has not happened yet.

For myself, I've seen nothing in all this shadow boxing to change my existing assessment of what is likely to happen:

** as Iggy said, they will vote non confidence no matter what [if for no other reason: continuing to support Harper would be more damaging to the Libs than anything else... and if you are going to vote no you might as well be as firm as you possibly can].

** the NDP is highly unlikey to vote with the government in the confidence motion unless there are major concessions that are themselves highly unlikely [if for no there reason: because it would be too costly to the NDP].

** The Bloc can easily handle the PR of a deal with Harper [unlike the other 2], has no reason to want an election, and likely reasons to wait. So its up to Harper: if he doesn't want an election [my guess], he offers goodies for Quebec. [It won't have to be a king's ransom.]

Ken S, I get your point but you may be looking at it in too partisan a manner.  To the average voters it will look like he IS supporting Harper.  And Most Canadians are not and never will be CPC supporters, regardless of any reluctance to return to the polls again.  (thank Gawd for small mercies) 

And in electoral terms he IS in fact supporting him/them by doing this, in that it allows Harper to stay in power longer, claim he has the "confidence" of at least one other party (one most Canadians see as most progressive, therefore legitimizing him again in eyes of some, many?) and allow him more time to set the agenda and push through gawd knows what other measures while the NDP is busy focusing on this one, albiet important, issue. 

I doubt he is that eager for an electon either, given that his lead is not that great and likely exagerated (as it usually is, and more Greens likley to swing Liberal again) so there is no reason to give him so much slack.  Think on what I'm saying here.  Seriously.  I'm not just doing this to be difficult. 

One thing we should all realize is that we are all in a bubble. We on babble and maybe a hundred or so other political junkies across Canada, plus a few inside the beltway journalists and politicos. Then there is the 99.99% of Canada that is outside the bubble who don't follow all this endless blow by blow and don't remember who said what to whom six months ago.

We live in two different worlds. My concern is what is absorbed by the 98% of voters who only pay attention to politics for about 5 minutes PER WEEK.

Erik Redburn wrote:

Ken S, I get your point but you may be looking at it in too partisan a manner.  To the average voters it will look like he IS supporting Harper.  And Most Canadians are not and never will be CPC supporters, regardless of any reluctance to return to the polls again.  (thank Gawd for small mercies)

The relevant question here is "how have voters historically reacted to the NDP propping up governments?"

The answer is that it depends. In 1968 after getting the Liberals to enact medicare, the NDP made small gains (no small feat since this was at the height of Trudeaumania). In 1974, after two years of working with the Liberals, however, the NDP tanked losing 15 seats. In Ontario in 1987 the NDP gained support but lost seats after two years of an accord with the Liberals. So really it can go either way.

However, what seems consistent to me, is that when NDP cooperation has positive and marketable policy results (eg. medicare and the policy accomplishments generally popular accord) they do well. When there are no clear accomplishments that gets tougher.

I'm disappointed today because IMHO, the one thing I notice most people pay attention to daily are the editorial cartoons.  It's all they have time to catch quite often, along with headlines.  And today's weren't good in the 2 main Toronto dailies.  Layton as a child reaching for a cookie jar labelled"Power"  and Layton wearing a female cheerleading uniform with a "C" on it saying "Gimme a C".  Guess which ran which.

The only "heat" is crocodile tears from the usual Liberal bloggers who are probably praying to God that Layton actually does vote down the non-confidence motion and saves the Liberals from themselves since its clear that Iggy is not ready for primetime.

The rest of the population (ie: everyone other than Liberal bloggers) would probably just be glad that someone saved them from having to go through an election so soon after the last one.

This brinkmanship is a lot tougher for the NDP than it is for the Liberals. The NDP needs to balance strategic considerations with questions of principle. There will always be people within the NDP "base" who will demand total adherence to principle to the point of self-destructiveness and as we all know the "the perfect is the enemy of the good." Whatever the NDP does, it has to be able to make the case that it is being principled.

The Liberals have a very one dimensional calculation. For them its 100% a stratgic decision. The Liberal "base" has absolutely no expecation that their party will do anything other than - what is good for the Liberal Party. If the Liberals were polling at below 20% and were flat broke right now, I guarantee you that Harper could bring in a bill calling for the sacrifice of the first born son of every family in Canada and declare it a confidence measure - and the Liberals would vote for the bill and you would never hear a peep from Liberal supporters - because they take it for granted that the ONLY thing that matters is what's good for the party.

If the Liberals want to prop up Harper, all they have to do is say "we will vote confidence in the Harper government because its not in our interest to have an election right now" - and everyone accepts that as a valid excuse. Imagine if Layton ever said "the NDP will vote confidence in Haroer because now is not a good time for us to have an election" - you'd never hear the end of all the hectoring and shrieking.

One of the truisms in Canadian politics is that the punditocracy will always hold the NDP to a vastly higher standard than the Liberals.

Its interesting that I suppose that you're a typical person who posts on babble and your entire social circle consists of people working for NGOs who wear mismatched socks - you might think that "everyone" in Canada hates Harper. But actually when i look at polls where people are asked to rate what they think of the Harper on a 4-point scale - only 15% of Canadians say that they STRONGLY disapprove of him, the other 85% either like him or only "somewhat" disapprove of him - which is not all that intense a sentiment.

Sad but true, that only very small proportion of Canadians really find Haroer to be the devil incarnate. I wish it were higher, but it simply isn't. 

"On that matter, has any opposition party brought forward a motion of "non-confidence" against the Cons since they held power. I just can't recall right now."

Yes, many times. The NDP and BQ put forth a number of non-confidence motions in the last parliament that failed and I think the Liberals at one point wrote up a non-confidence motion that was worded in such a way that it was designed to be impossible for the NDP or the BQ to support (ie: it contained glowing references to the glory of a united Canada and to how wonderful the previous Liberal government was etc...)

Stockholm wrote:

Its interesting that I suppose that you're a typical person who posts on babble and your entire social circle consists of people working for NGOs who wear mismatched socks - you might think that "everyone" in Canada hates Harper. But actually when i look at polls where people are asked to rate what they think of the Harper on a 4-point scale - only 15% of Canadians say that they STRONGLY disapprove of him, the other 85% either like him or only "somewhat" disapprove of him - which is not all that intense a sentiment.

Sad but true, that only very small proportion of Canadians really find Haroer to be the devil incarnate. I wish it were higher, but it simply isn't. 

RRrrrr.  Stockholm, I appreciate cheerful evil among sometimes team-mates as much as any other puck chasing Canuck, but have you not seen my other posts Re how many NDP Canucks are Really "centrists"...like You?   Like Ever?  And do you not think that if self-described "mainstream" members like You also Tried to dispel media illusions that Harper Isn't the devil incarnate (along with lesser daemons and spooks like Iggy and emay) you might also help the home team More.  Even if it also means helping the actual causes and aims of our dear departed Tommy and other reformers who made Canada just a wee bit better.  Even if Some of us Do wear mismatched socks?  (like when "we're" in a rush to get to the latest rally or group hug...)   One more then I retreat to other more amenable rabble banter, like other wiser Babblers have before me.   No. This time I mean it.  Really.

ETA:  There you go BA, one living breathing example of your "non-ideological" NDP-friendly Canuck.

Quite the thread.  Starts out with the late mahmoud posing the statement, "layton is afraid of an election", followed quickly by the usual assortment of ideologues in support of the statement, and then the thread finishes with the cooler heads considering whether the decision to support the Cons will help or hurt.

The Globe and Mail's Gable put Layton in the driver's seat, the "Toronto" papers did it to him, and generally all the media did their usual work of enlightening the Great Unread (not) by playing the usual partisan cards (very like babble in that way).

But I just wonder, if by some stroke of fate, Canada came to have a system of proportional representation, and government necessarily made up of parties negotiating to hold power in combination, just what it would do to those "made up" partisan minds "out there" and "in here"?  Mind-blowing thought, actually.

Buddy Kat wrote:

I think Layton just screwed up bigtime.....It took years for the loyal nDP supporters to apologize and excuse the last time the nDP jumped into the tub with Harper. Now Harper has blown up the rubber ducky and says "come on Jack..let's do it again"...question is will Layton bite? Will he take the bait?

 

Looking at those latest cbc ekos polls and to me it looks like this is the gaff the greens have been waiting for to take over the nDP/Green lead. All it will take now is a quick witty response by liz May and for it to be pumped up by the media and It's game over.

So Jack isn't afraid of an election ..he is scared stiff of one. Shoule be intersting to see the next cbc ekos poll.

Two points:

"We must not allow a coalition of Liberals, socialists and separatists." - Stephen Harper. If Harper accepts Layton's 'olive branch' on EI, then his Conservative governmentent will be a coalition with 'socialists'. If the Bloc votes in favor of the ways and means measures Friday, then the Conservative minority government will be propped up by the 'separatists'.

Most Canadians do not want an election now. Viewed by most Canadians, the NDP offering to cooperate with the government to provide immediate improved assistance to Canada's unemployed, working to improve the economy and reducing the likelihood of an early election, will benefit the NDP. The only party that now (ostensibly) will oppose the Conservative government are the Liberals. The Liberal's perceived desire for an early election will hurt them. All things considered equal, perhaps in the next election (whenever that may be) the NDP will become the Official Opposition.

Certainly losing sight of the realities of party politics in a national atmosphere of induced ignorance.

Maybe, the bloc and Ndp should continue tag teaming like this for a while just to maintain the liberals irrelevence. Who knows, the conservatives may develope a taste for dealing with treehugging -pinko-commies.

I don't believe that Jack Layton is afraid of an election but he just knows that if he votes against the EI package he will be doing so at his own peril.  As his voters up in Northern Ontario need this package badly.   I think he would suffer some serious backlash if this was allowed to not go through.

Same reason why the BQ are voting for it.  It's a non partisan bill in my pov.  Therefore can and should be voted on honestly as to what their constituents would wish.

Harper's EI move is no more a step in the right direction than his $100 a month bonus for children was. It is a puny short-term discriminatory diversion from EI reform. It is also a trap set for the cowardly.

The PM is doing this to show Ignatieff to be uncooperative.  To show that Ignatieff walked away from the EI reform meetings.  To show that the PM is working with over parties.  With everyone voting with Harper it only looks like The Liberals are not working with other parties and I'm sure Harper will at some point paint Ignatieff as being against the working people. 

Harper needs to divert support from the Liberal party and funnel it to the NDP.  Harper needs to split the left vote in order to gain his majority.  Nothing this man does is by accident.  Ignatieff is simply out matched.

Mr.Canada_ts wrote:

Nothing this man does is by accident.

The sweater-vests are on purpose?

Doug wrote:

Mr.Canada_ts wrote:

Nothing this man does is by accident.

The sweater-vests are on purpose?

Lol, it would appear to be so.  My guess is he was trying his best to appear grandfatherly and non threatening but he ended up looking quite silly...:)

Why can't you Dippers just accept it?: you sold out!

Your principles are meaningless if you refuse to stand up for them when the chips are down. You had it easy for three years while the Liberals tore themselves apart and you annointed yourselves as the 'real' opposition based SOLELY on the fact that you unerringly voted against the government on confidence motions.

But the second that a situation comes along where you have to choose between adhering to your principles and acting out of self-preservation, you fold. The EI proposal by the Tories is a pittance, even when it isn't compared to your own party platform on the matter, which you seem to have completely abandoned now.

As of Friday (or at least after the first confidence motion the bloc votes against) the NDP will be the only reason why Stephen Harper is still in power.

- YOU are the reason GLBT events in Canada won't get proper funding

- YOU are the reason there will be a Conservative majority in the Senate by January

- YOU are the reason why Canadians abroad won't be able to rely on their government for reprieve or representation

The NDP is in bed with the Tories. Accept it. Wear it. You can blame the Liberals all you want for the events of the last three years but from now on the Tory government is your legacy.

It must be very frustrating to ses the once mighty Canada's "natural governing party" cut out of the decision-making process in Ottawa. What a comedown it has been.

Myself I'm pretty happy to see the NDP support an extra billion dollars to help Canada's unemployed.

Not surprised, but it's a real shame that the Ignatieff Liberals are voting against the Canadian workers. As A Canadian worker I am going to remember that when I go to the polls next time.

Holy moly long thread. Just trying to spice things up. "Closing, long thread" is so boring isn't it.